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報告_Daiwa_台燿6274_20260727

更新 2026-07-28

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原始內容

Taiwan

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT)

Target price:

TWD2,320.00 (from TWD2,122.00)

Share price (27 Jul):

TWD1,255.00 | Up/downside: +84.9%

2Q26 preview: intact growth story

  • Decent margin expansion on significant price hike in 2Q26
  • High-end CCL capacity shortage and spec upgrade key growth drivers
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating and lifting 12M TP to TWD2,320

What's new: We provide our latest view on TUC before its 2Q26 results.

What's the impact: 2Q26 results preview and 2H26 outlook . Based on both TUC and its key competitor's preliminary pre-tax announcement and 2Q26 sales number, we estimate the blended ASP hike on CCL to reach c.30% to pass through the additional raw materials cost hike since 2H25. With the higher ASP from CCL from 2Q26, we estimate CCL vendors' GM to increase 4-5pp in 2Q26. As such, we now expect TUC's GM to expand to 29.5% in 2Q26 (vs. 25.1% in 1Q26). Hence, our new 2Q26E operating profit comes in at TWD3.25bn, 13% higher than our prior estimate. Looking ahead, we forecast 3Q26 and 4Q26 sales to grow by 22%/10% QoQ, respectively, on gradual new capacity ramp-up in Thailand from mid-August (0.3m CCL sheets per month with total capacity reaching 2.6m per month). We expect new capacity to be mainly adopted by Trainium 3, which we expect to be the key driver for growth during 2H26 and on a QoQ basis in 4Q26 due to new capacity not fully operational for the entire 3Q26. In terms of the 300k CCL sheets per month and potential product optimisation, we expect TUC to acquire 20-30% market share within Trainium 3 AI server.

Long-term outlook. While we expect the high-end CCL capacity shortage to continue until 2027 with the incremental new supply coming from product optimisation (capacity shift from the low to high end), we expect TUC to deliver an additional 600k CCL per month from 2H27E, which would deliver c.20% unit growth in 2027E. On top of this, we expect ongoing spec upgrades to drive c.30% ASP hike every generation, and we still expect TUC to continuously to optimise its product mix, which would drive an additional c.10% blended price increase by 2027. Lastly, we expect another c.10% price hike for products due mainly to raw material cost inflation. In all, we expect these factors to lead to 87% YoY revenue growth in 2027E. For 2028E, while TUC hasn't finalised its capacity plan yet (likely to be 2 nd phase of plant 2 in Thailand with additional 0.9m CCL sheets per month), we expect c.20% CCL sheet capacity YoY growth along with 30% ASP hike on spec upgrades. We highlight that additional cost inflation and product optimisation haven't been factored into our 2028E forecasts.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 12-38% to reflect higher ASPs and a better product mix. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and lift our 12M TP to TWD2,320 (from TWD2,122), based on a lower target PER of 35x (prior: 48x) applied to our 4Q26-3Q27E EPS (from 2H26-1H27E), on earnings growth deceleration. Downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for switches/AI servers, and 2) market share loss to CCL peers.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 7-26% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely on our higher revenue growth.

27 July 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang

(886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 1.5 14.3 15.7
Net profit change 12.4 33.1 38.1
Core EPS (FD) change 12.4 33.1 38.1

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

報告_Daiwa_台燿6274_20260727_001
報告_Daiwa_台燿6274_20260727_002
12-month range 253.50-1,900.00
Market cap (USDbn) 11.18
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 278.47
Shares outstanding (m) 289
Major shareholder Hsin Chung-Herng (4.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 60,950 113,868 170,992
Operating profit (m) 14,272 31,250 50,532
Net profit (m) 10,494 23,146 37,417
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 36.312 80.091 129.471
EPS change (%) 196.4 120.6 61.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 7.3 25.5 9.4
PER (x) 34.6 15.7 9.7
Dividend yield (%) 2.0 4.5 7.2
DPS 25.4 56.1 90.6
PBR (x) 14.3 8.7 5.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.6 11.6 7.1
ROE (%) 47.7 69.1 71.4

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

TUC: Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecast revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 60,034 60,950 58,344 99,614 113,868 94,347 147,736 170,992 156,700
Diff (%) 1.5% 4.5% 14.3% 20.7% 15.7% 9.1%
Gross margin (%) 28.1% 30.2% 28.0% 30.5% 33.7% 30.5% 31.7% 35.0% 31.9%
Operating profit 12,709 14,272 12,900 23,468 31,250 24,365 36,576 50,532 44,286
Operating margin (%) 21.2% 23.4% 22.1% 23.6% 27.4% 25.8% 24.8% 29.6% 28.3%
Net profit 9,337 10,494 9,778 17,388 23,146 18,443 27,090 37,417 34,194
EPS (TWD) 32.31 36.31 33.83 60.17 80.09 63.82 93.74 129.47 118.32
Diff (%) 12.4% 7.3% 33.1% 25.5% 38.1% 9.4%

Source: Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

TUC: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 10,054 14,300 17,391 19,205 21,732 24,431 31,068 36,638 30,340 60,950 113,868 170,992
COGS -7,525 -10,082 -11,922 -13,041 -14,573 -16,270 -20,523 -24,152 -23,442 -42,571 -75,518 -111,134
Gross profit 2,529 4,218 5,469 6,163 7,158 8,160 10,545 12,487 6,898 18,379 38,350 59,859
Operating expenses -701 -972 -1,165 -1,267 -1,413 -1,564 -1,926 -2,198 -2,554 -4,106 -7,101 -9,327
Operating profit 1,828 3,246 4,303 4,896 5,746 6,597 8,619 10,288 4,344 14,272 31,250 50,532
Non-operating profit 46 13 11 10 9 8 6 7 175 80 30 32
Pre-tax profit 1,874 3,259 4,315 4,905 5,755 6,604 8,625 10,295 4,519 14,352 31,279 50,564
Net profit 1,260 2,411 3,193 3,630 4,258 4,887 6,383 7,618 3,409 10,494 23,146 37,417
Net EPS (TWD) 4.36 8.34 11.05 12.56 14.73 16.91 22.08 26.36 12.1 36.3 80.1 129.5
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 25.1% 29.5% 31.4% 32.1% 32.9% 33.4% 33.9% 34.1% 22.7% 30.2% 33.7% 35.0%
Operating margin 18.2% 22.7% 24.7% 25.5% 26.4% 27.0% 27.7% 28.1% 14.3% 23.4% 27.4% 29.6%
Pre-tax margin 18.6% 22.8% 24.8% 25.5% 26.5% 27.0% 27.8% 28.1% 14.9% 23.5% 27.5% 29.6%
Net margin 12.5% 16.9% 18.4% 18.9% 19.6% 20.0% 20.5% 20.8% 11.2% 17.2% 20.3% 21.9%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 58% 111% 116% 110% 116% 71% 79% 91% 32% 101% 87% 50%
Gross profit 65% 194% 186% 206% 183% 93% 93% 103% 29% 166% 109% 56%
Operating profit 95% 281% 240% 279% 214% 103% 100% 110% 30% 229% 119% 62%
Pre-tax profit 100% 288% 227% 244% 207% 103% 100% 110% 34% 218% 118% 62%
Net profit 88% 270% 218% 235% 238% 103% 100% 110% 31% 208% 121% 62%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 10% 42% 22% 10% 13% 12% 27% 18%
Gross profit 26% 67% 30% 13% 16% 14% 29% 18%
Operating profit 42% 78% 33% 14% 17% 15% 31% 19%
Pre-tax profit 31% 74% 32% 14% 17% 15% 31% 19%
Net profit 16% 91% 32% 14% 17% 15% 31% 19%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

TUC: 1-year-forward PER bands

報告_Daiwa_台燿6274_20260727_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 27 July 2026

TUC: revenue breakdown by product

報告_Daiwa_台燿6274_20260727_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (mn) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (mn) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (mn) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
HSD Low Loss 9,509 8,355 8,570 14,445 20,651 48,168 99,027 153,416
HSD Non Low Loss 9,932 7,174 4,885 5,241 5,582 5,371 4,428 3,751
Other Revenue 1,691 2,944 2,547 3,385 4,108 7,410 10,413 13,825
Total Revenue 21,132 18,472 16,003 23,070 30,340 60,950 113,868 170,992
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (16,702) (15,067) (12,844) (17,729) (23,442) (42,571) (75,518) (111,134)
SG&A (1,786) (1,597) (1,422) (1,668) (2,039) (605) 0 0
Other op.expenses (264) (311) (313) (342) (515) (3,501) (7,101) (9,327)
Operating profit 2,380 1,498 1,424 3,332 4,344 14,272 31,250 50,532
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (30) (29) (27) (52) (89) (116) (110) (108)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 63 152 153 98 264 196 139 140
Pre-tax profit 2,413 1,621 1,550 3,378 4,519 14,352 31,279 50,564
Tax (532) (360) (726) (773) (1,109) (3,858) (8,133) (13,147)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 1,881 1,261 823 2,604 3,409 10,494 23,146 37,417
Net profit (adjusted) 1,881 1,261 823 2,604 3,409 10,494 23,146 37,417
EPS (reported)(TWD) 7.010 4.687 3.049 9.561 12.135 36.312 80.091 129.471
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 7.010 4.687 3.049 9.561 12.135 36.312 80.091 129.471
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 7.014 4.687 3.052 9.573 12.250 36.312 80.091 129.471
DPS (TWD) 5.005 4.000 4.008 6.504 8.491 25.418 56.064 90.630
EBIT 2,380 1,498 1,424 3,332 4,344 14,272 31,250 50,532
EBITDA 2,819 1,960 1,885 3,784 4,803 14,910 31,983 51,375

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 2,413 1,621 1,550 3,378 4,519 14,352 31,279 50,564
Depreciation and amortisation 439 462 461 452 459 638 733 843
Tax paid (532) (360) (726) (773) (1,109) (3,858) (8,133) (13,147)
Change in working capital 4,224 (3,625) 1,136 5,588 13,451 24,705 56,849 38,656
Other operational CF items (5,033) 4,227 (1,300) (7,967) (16,724) (37,755) (76,310) (53,563)
Cash flow from operations 1,512 2,326 1,120 677 596 (1,919) 4,419 23,353
Capex (433) (381) (634) (1,196) (1,949) (2,774) (1,400) (1,400)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 3 0 (9) 4 8 6 7
Other investing CF items 1,702 1,054 389 75 (4,558) 1,675 0 0
Cash flow from investing 1,269 677 (244) (1,130) (6,502) (1,091) (1,394) (1,393)
Change in debt (9) (583) 531 (372) 4,141 3,209 4,569 3,977
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,574) (2,694) (2,153) (2,180) (3,594) (2,454) (7,346) (16,203)
Other financing CF items 1,402 1,333 (19) 3,927 4,341 375 0 0
Cash flow from financing (1,180) (1,944) (1,641) 1,376 4,888 1,131 (2,777) (12,226)
Forex effect/others (21) 115 (166) 399 (97) 508 427 393
Change in cash 1,580 1,173 (932) 1,322 (1,115) (1,370) 676 10,128
Free cash flow 1,079 1,945 486 (519) (1,353) (4,692) 3,019 21,953

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 27 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 6,582 6,814 5,657 7,037 10,602 7,538 8,214 18,342
Inventory 2,857 1,965 2,061 3,189 7,405 11,082 22,838 29,045
Accounts receivable 7,602 6,161 6,713 9,711 13,823 29,324 55,723 76,297
Other current assets 162 143 187 326 521 560 560 560
Total current assets 17,202 15,084 14,618 20,264 32,351 48,504 87,334 124,244
Fixed assets 4,743 4,671 4,793 5,614 7,386 9,557 10,224 10,781
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 5 8 9 0 4 21 15 8
Total assets 21,951 19,763 19,420 25,878 39,741 58,082 97,573 135,033
Short-term debt 447 2,237 603 962 2,141 2,481 2,599 2,745
Accounts payable 5,741 4,143 4,581 6,642 11,871 19,823 38,517 50,392
Other current liabilities 252 174 364 269 608 886 886 886
Total current liabilities 6,440 6,553 5,548 7,873 14,621 23,189 42,003 54,022
Long-term debt 3,521 1,146 2,106 3,449 6,304 9,193 13,643 17,475
Other non-current liabilities 252 205 187 219 203 314 314 314
Total liabilities 10,214 7,904 7,840 11,541 21,127 32,696 55,959 71,810
Share capital 2,689 2,692 2,712 2,760 2,887 2,888 2,888 2,888
Reserves/R.E./others 9,047 9,167 8,868 11,577 15,727 22,498 38,726 60,335
Shareholders' equity 11,737 11,858 11,580 14,337 18,614 25,386 41,614 63,222
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 21,951 19,763 19,420 25,878 39,741 58,082 97,573 135,033
EV 360,083 359,265 359,748 360,070 360,539 366,831 370,724 364,573
Net debt/(cash) (2,613) (3,431) (2,948) (2,626) (2,158) 4,135 8,028 1,877
BVPS (TWD) 43.735 44.063 42.875 52.635 66.255 87.841 143.993 218.761

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 17.1 (12.6) (13.4) 44.2 31.5 100.9 86.8 50.2
EBITDA (YoY) 5.8 (30.5) (3.8) 100.8 26.9 210.5 114.5 60.6
Operating profit (YoY) 4.7 (37.1) (4.9) 133.9 30.4 228.6 119 61.7
Net profit (YoY) 6.0 (32.9) (34.7) 216.3 30.9 207.8 120.6 61.7
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 5.1 (33.2) (34.9) 213.7 28.0 196.4 120.6 61.7
Gross-profit margin 21.0 18.4 19.7 23.2 22.7 30.2 33.7 35
EBITDA margin 13.3 10.6 11.8 16.4 15.8 24.5 28.1 30
Operating-profit margin 11.3 8.1 8.9 14.4 14.3 23.4 27.4 29.6
Net profit margin 8.9 6.8 5.1 11.3 11.2 17.2 20.3 21.9
ROAE 16.5 10.7 7.0 20.1 20.7 47.7 69.1 71.4
ROAA 9.1 6.0 4.2 11.5 10.4 21.5 29.7 32.2
ROCE 15.5 9.7 9.6 20.2 19.0 44.5 65.8 71.5
ROIC 21.2 13.3 8.9 25.3 23.3 45.4 58.4 65.2
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash 17.6 31.0 28.3 8.9
Effective tax rate 22.0 22.2 46.9 22.9 24.6 26.9 26 26
Accounts receivable (days) 114.3 136.0 146.8 129.9 141.6 129.2 136.3 140.9
Current ratio (x) 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3
Net interest cover (x) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.2 2.9 4.7
Net dividend payout 71.4 85.3 131.8 68.1 70.0 70.0 70 70
Free cash flow yield 0.3 0.5 0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.8 6.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (TUC) was established in 1974. In 2001, TUC started to provide its Mass Lamination service to customers. In Dec., 2003, TUC was officially listed in Taiwan OTC. In 2004, TUC established its Changshu plant in Jiangsu, China to satisfy customer demand in the Greater China area. TUC also provides its services globally from its network in Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea, USA and Germany.

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 27 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 TUC has diverse stakeholders with varying interests. The concerns of each stakeholder category differ. TUC's departments engage with stakeholders through various channels to ensure timely communication and understanding of the Company's operations. TUC also tracks stakeholder requests and expectations and responds promptly. The Company reports to the Board of Directors annually on its communication with key stakeholders.
G Capital management 1 TUC pays its dividend on a annual basis. In the past 5 years, it has managed its dividend payout well. We believe TUC will at least sustain its cash dividend payout in dollar terms over 2025-27E. We see its balance between investment and dividend as appropriate.
G Related party & transaction 2 TUC's sales to related parties were insignifacnt versus its total revenue. We see limited risk for TUC.
S Supply chain management 1 TUC audits Tier 1 suppliers for ESG compliance, requiring commitments on hazardous substance bans and human rights. Several supplier audits were completed with a 100% pass rate and no major violations.
S Data security 2 TUC operates an Information Security Office and implements training, audits, and ISO 27001- compliant systems. No security incidents disrupted operations, and 683 employees attended security training.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 6 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Taiwan Union Technology Corp (6274 TT): 27 July 2026

Daiwa