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報告_Daiwa_台光電2383_3Q26_20261028

更新 2026-10-29

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報告_Daiwa_台光電2383_3Q26_20261028_002.png 28KB 真資料圖 1 年遠期本益比帶(TWD):股價與 11x/18x/25x/35x 四條倍數線,橫軸 Oct-19 至 Oct-26,股價約 5,000 上下,落在 25x 線附近
報告_Daiwa_台光電2383_3Q26_20261028_003.png 19KB 真資料圖 依終端應用的營收占比堆疊圖 2024–2028E:Infra 61%/69%/79%/85%/88%,Handset 26%/22%/14%/10%/7%,Automotive/Others 其餘

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原始內容

EliteMaterial (2383TT)

Target price: TWD10,000.00 (from TWD7,200.00)

Shareprice(28Oct):TWD5,025.00 | Up/downside:+99.0%

3Q26 review: beat on better-than-expected price hike

  • Ongoing better-than-expected price hike level from 3Q26 onwards
  • Capacity expansion plan announced on improved demand visibility
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; raising 12M TP to TWD10,000

What's new: We provide our latest view on EMC after its 3Q26 results announced on 28 October.

What's the impact: 3Q26 results beat on higher-than-expected price hike. EMC's net income came in at TWD14.5bn (EPS: TWD40.47), beating our estimate (TWD11.8bn) and Bloomberg consensus (TWD12.6bn) by 23% and 15%, respectively. We attribute this outperformance to a higherthan-expected price hike in 3Q26 (c.10% higher than our expectation). 3Q26 revenue was TWD60.9bn, up 29% QoQ and 142% YoY, and c.10% above our expectation. Gross margin also rose 3.8pp QoQ to 37.7%, reflecting improved pricing.

Business outlook. Looking ahead, the company expects to implement a second price increase in 4Q26, after its first in 2Q26. We forecast a 1520% increase, which we expect to be a key revenue growth driver in 4Q26; we currently estimate revenue to rise 18% QoQ, with gross margin reaching 39.4%. Today, EMC also announced its capacity expansion plan for 2H28-2030. Despite some delays at its Guanyin plant in Taiwan, the company expects progress in 2027-28 to remain largely on track; EMC expects the total monthly capacity to rise to 15.25m in 2030 from 5.85m in 2026 and 10.45m in 2028. Management expects total orders under longterm agreements (LTAs) to exceed the planned capacity expansion. LTAs secure 3-year volume but not pricing; penalties apply if clients do not honor the agreements. This also suggests that management is optimistic about demand, particularly in 2030, when the company plans its largest percentage increase in capacity during 2028-30, despite having no protection from LTAs. Management sees rising demand from LEO satellites (which are likely to adopt M10-grade CCL by 2030) and robotics as key growth drivers by 2030. For ABF CCL, the company currently targets monthly capacity of 1.2m by end-2027. As this capacity may be shared with high-end PCB CCL and substrate CCL, utilisation of the initial capacity will depend on an ASIC project involving a Taiwan IC design house in 2H27, per EMC. Following TPCA Show, we believe interest in PTFE adoption has waned. Based on the technology migration roadmap, we remain positive on EMC's decision to use Q-glass alongside HC resin in its M10 development.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 19-31% to reflect 3Q26 results and higher price hike. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD10,000 (from TWD7,200), based on an unchanged PER multiple of 38x on 1-year-forward EPS. Key downside risk: weakerthan-expected AI server demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 13-22% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our higher price hike assumptions.

3

2

1

(unchanged)

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 9.8 17.3 19.3
Net profit change 18.4 29.6 30.8
Core EPS (FD) change 18.5 29.7 30.9

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 1,250.00-6,350.00
Market cap (USDbn) 55.44
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 402.34
Shares outstanding (m) 358
Major shareholder Yu Chang Investment Co Ltd (7.4%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 213,032 387,633 577,750
Operating profit (m) 61,777 132,162 206,183
Net profit (m) 47,742 102,457 159,864
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 133.215 285.963 446.191
EPS change (%) 219.7 114.7 56.0
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 13.3 21.7 17.3
PER (x) 37.7 17.6 11.3
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 3.4 5.3
DPS 79.9 171.6 267.7
PBR (x) 19.2 10.7 6.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.2 13.3 8.4
ROE (%) 66.3 78.2 73.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

EMC: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. Bloomberg consensus

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 193,997 213,032 197,854 330,550 387,633 338,254 484,308 577,750 513,568
Diff (%) 9.8% 7.7% 17.3% 14.6% 19.3% 12.5%
Gross Margin (%) 34.3% 36.1% 34.3% 37.9% 41.3% 38.1% 39.3% 42.7% 39.4%
Operating profit 51,970 61,777 54,366 101,298 132,162 108,411 156,513 206,183 174,162
Op Margin (%) 26.8% 29.0% 27.5% 30.6% 34.1% 32.1% 32.3% 35.7% 33.9%
Net profit 40,324 47,742 42,146 79,072 102,456.656 84,208 122,177 159,864 136,273
EPS (TWD) 112.46 133.21 117.60 220.53 285.96 235.03 340.75 446.19 380.35
Diff (%) 18.4% 13.3% 29.6% 21.7% 30.8% 17.3%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

EMC: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 33,067 47,275 60,885 71,805 79,812 91,068 104,371 112,381 94,261 213,032 387,633 577,750
COGS -23,338 -31,272 -37,934 -43,548 -47,523 -53,492 -61,223 -65,163 -66,141 -136,092 -227,401 -331,124
Gross profit 9,729 16,003 22,951 28,257 32,289 37,577 43,148 47,218 28,120 76,940 160,232 246,626
Operating expenses 2,601 3,269 4,264 5,029 5,906 6,557 7,515 8,091 9,012 15,163 28,069 40,443
Operating profit 7,128 12,734 18,687 23,228 26,383 31,020 35,633 39,126 19,108 61,777 132,162 206,183
Non-operating profit 66 52 17 27 27 26 -25 -30 -232 161 -2 31
Pre-tax profit 7,194 12,785 18,703 23,255 26,410 31,046 35,608 39,096 18,876 61,938 132,160 206,214
Income taxes -1,855 -2,914 -4,204 -5,228 -5,937 -6,979 -8,004 -8,788 -4,231 -14,201 -29,708 -46,355
Net profit 5,340 9,873 14,500 18,029 20,475 24,068 27,605 30,309 14,649 47,742 102,457 159,864
Net EPS (TWD) 14.89 27.55 40.47 50.32 57.15 67.18 77.05 84.59 40.84 133.21 285.96 446.19
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 29.4% 33.9% 37.7% 39.4% 40.5% 41.3% 41.3% 42.0% 29.8% 36.1% 41.3% 42.7%
Operating margin 21.6% 26.9% 30.7% 32.3% 33.1% 34.1% 34.1% 34.8% 20.3% 29.0% 34.1% 35.7%
Pre-tax margin 21.8% 27.0% 30.7% 32.4% 33.1% 34.1% 34.1% 34.8% 20.0% 29.1% 34.1% 35.7%
Net margin 16.1% 20.9% 23.8% 25.1% 25.7% 26.4% 26.4% 27.0% 15.5% 22.4% 26.4% 27.7%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 53% 110% 142% 188% 141% 93% 71% 57% 46% 126% 82% 49%
Gross profit 48% 134% 203% 297% 232% 135% 88% 67% 56% 174% 108% 54%
Operating profit 57% 174% 274% 371% 270% 144% 91% 68% 57% 223% 114% 56%
Pre-tax profit 54% 186% 265% 403% 267% 143% 90% 68% 56% 228% 113% 56%
Net profit 54% 184% 266% 382% 283% 144% 90% 68% 53% 226% 115% 56%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 33% 43% 29% 18% 11% 14% 15% 8%
Gross profit 37% 64% 43% 23% 14% 16% 15% 9%
Operating profit 44% 79% 47% 24% 14% 18% 15% 10%
Pre-tax profit 56% 78% 46% 24% 14% 18% 15% 10%
Net profit 43% 85% 47% 24% 14% 18% 15% 10%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

EMC: 3Q26 comparison table

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff % Consensus Diff %
Revenue 60,885 29% 142% 54,443 12% 56,148 8%
Gross profit 22,951 43% 203% 19,201 20% 20,073 14%
Gross margin (%) 37.7% 35.3% 35.7%
Operating profit 18,687 47% 274% 15,064 24% 16,232 15%
Operating margin (%) 30.7% 27.7% 28.9%
Pre-tax profit 18,703 46% 265% 15,103 24% 16,163 16%
Net profit 14,500 47% 266% 11,782 23% 12,566 15%
EPS (TWD) 40.47 47% 266% 32.86 23% 35.07 15%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

EMC: 1-year forward PER bands

EMC: revenue breakdown by product

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (m) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (m) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (m) 1,655 1,437 1,381 1,439 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Infra 12,089 15,289 21,125 39,046 64,617 168,111 328,567 510,997
Handset 19,413 16,378 14,716 17,033 20,538 29,774 38,601 42,628
Other Revenue 6,998 7,005 5,455 8,297 9,106 15,147 20,465 24,126
Total Revenue 38,500 38,673 41,296 64,377 94,261 213,032 387,633 577,750
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (28,431) (28,962) (29,964) (46,407) (66,141) (136,092) (227,401) (331,124)
SG&A (2,379) (2,532) (2,717) (4,048) (6,320) (10,507) (19,555) (28,186)
Other op.expenses (767) (953) (1,269) (1,770) (2,692) (4,657) (8,514) (12,256)
Operating profit 6,923 6,225 7,346 12,152 19,108 61,777 132,162 206,183
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (76) (184) (319) (459) (476) (630) (574) (601)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 66 255 392 440 244 791 572 632
Pre-tax profit 6,912 6,296 7,420 12,133 18,876 61,938 132,160 206,214
Tax (1,412) (1,220) (1,931) (2,564) (4,231) (14,201) (29,708) (46,355)
Min. int./pref. div./others (7) (3) 0 9 4 5 4 5
Net profit (reported) 5,493 5,073 5,488 9,578 14,649 47,742 102,457 159,864
Net profit (adjusted) 5,493 5,073 5,488 9,578 14,649 47,742 102,457 159,864
EPS (reported)(TWD) 16.500 15.238 16.349 27.807 41.667 133.252 285.963 446.191
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 16.500 15.238 16.349 27.807 41.667 133.252 285.963 446.191
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 16.472 14.798 15.797 27.552 41.667 133.215 285.963 446.191
DPS (TWD) 10.000 8.407 9.979 16.575 24.996 79.944 171.578 267.715
EBIT 6,923 6,225 7,346 12,152 19,108 61,777 132,162 206,183
EBITDA 7,642 7,000 8,648 13,921 20,958 64,454 135,839 210,861

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 6,912 6,296 7,420 12,133 18,876 61,938 132,160 206,214
Depreciation and amortisation 719 774 1,302 1,769 1,849 2,677 3,677 4,677
Tax paid (1,412) (1,220) (1,931) (2,564) (4,231) (14,201) (29,708) (46,355)
Change in working capital 7,481 (4,810) 12,237 16,078 25,148 117,500 122,721 128,536
Other operational CF items (9,679) 6,457 (16,138) (20,153) (29,674) (153,105) (161,616) (170,911)
Cash flow from operations 4,022 7,498 2,890 7,263 11,968 14,810 67,235 122,161
Capex (2,470) (6,493) (3,281) (5,867) (9,490) (21,878) (25,160) (28,934)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (26) 0 6 13 (18) 7 (6) 1
Other investing CF items (122) (103) (782) (47) (380) (1,618) 0 0
Cash flow from investing (2,618) (6,596) (4,057) (5,901) (9,888) (23,489) (25,166) (28,933)
Change in debt 1,719 2,732 2,954 5,296 8,721 27,970 19,597 23,863
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,333) (3,333) (2,830) (3,439) (5,894) (8,958) (28,643) (61,474)
Other financing CF items 194 3,289 (15) 2,259 (51) 1,985 0 0
Cash flow from financing (420) 2,687 109 4,116 2,776 20,997 (9,046) (37,611)
Forex effect/others (73) 211 (126) 251 163 1,297 1,086 1,106
Change in cash 910 3,802 (1,185) 5,729 5,020 13,614 34,109 56,723
Free cash flow 1,551 1,005 (391) 1,397 2,478 (7,069) 42,075 93,227

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 6,642 10,444 9,259 14,989 20,008 33,622 67,731 124,454
Inventory 5,465 4,236 6,135 9,437 16,752 35,961 57,564 77,598
Accounts receivable 13,274 11,683 17,327 25,897 36,115 102,105 161,311 226,732
Other current assets 463 217 955 1,171 1,106 1,788 1,788 1,788
Total current assets 25,844 26,580 33,675 51,494 73,980 173,477 288,393 430,572
Fixed assets 10,721 16,803 19,746 24,568 33,933 56,671 78,154 102,411
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 0 0 6 18 0 (7) (2) (2)
Total assets 36,565 43,382 53,427 76,080 107,913 230,140 366,545 532,980
Short-term debt 2,717 5,299 7,866 7,781 11,264 23,115 30,048 38,055
Accounts payable 10,969 9,802 14,491 21,199 33,285 75,467 117,380 160,460
Other current liabilities 799 659 716 1,202 1,682 7,622 7,622 7,622
Total current liabilities 14,485 15,760 23,073 30,182 46,231 106,204 155,050 206,137
Long-term debt 721 4,218 2,109 8,772 8,219 25,451 38,115 53,971
Other non-current liabilities 1,585 1,330 1,435 2,032 3,027 4,876 4,876 4,876
Total liabilities 16,791 21,308 26,617 40,986 57,477 136,530 198,041 264,984
Share capital 3,329 3,329 3,432 3,466 3,583 3,583 3,583 3,583
Reserves/R.E./others 16,424 18,745 23,378 31,644 46,872 90,052 164,951 264,447
Shareholders' equity 19,753 22,075 26,809 35,111 50,456 93,635 168,534 268,030
Minority interests 21 0 0 (17) (20) (26) (30) (35)
Total equity & liabilities 36,565 43,382 53,427 76,080 107,913 230,140 366,545 532,980
EV 1,797,205 1,799,461 1,801,103 1,801,934 1,799,842 1,815,305 1,800,789 1,767,925
Net debt/(cash) (3,203) (926) 716 1,564 (525) 14,944 432 (32,428)
BVPS (TWD) 59.332 66.306 79.860 101.931 143.516 261.342 470.391 748.091

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 41.5 0.4 6.8 55.9 46.4 126.0 82.0 49.0
EBITDA (YoY) 44.4 (8.4) 23.6 61.0 50.5 207.5 110.8 55.2
Operating profit (YoY) 47.8 (10.1) 18.0 65.4 57.2 223.3 113.9 56.0
Net profit (YoY) 48.9 (7.7) 8.2 74.5 52.9 225.9 114.6 56.0
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 48.9 (10.2) 6.7 74.4 51.2 219.7 114.7 56.0
Gross-profit margin 26.2 25.1 27.4 27.9 29.8 36.1 41.3 42.7
EBITDA margin 19.8 18.1 20.9 21.6 22.2 30.3 35.0 36.5
Operating-profit margin 18.0 16.1 17.8 18.9 20.3 29.0 34.1 35.7
Net profit margin 14.3 13.1 13.3 14.9 15.5 22.4 26.4 27.7
ROAE 30.1 24.3 22.5 30.9 34.2 66.3 78.2 73.2
ROAA 17.1 12.7 11.3 14.8 15.9 28.2 34.3 35.5
ROCE 33.2 22.7 21.5 27.5 31.4 58.3 69.8 69.1
ROIC 37.6 26.6 22.3 29.9 34.3 60.1 73.8 79.0
Net debt to equity net cash net cash 2.7 4.5 net cash 16.0 0.3 net cash
Effective tax rate 20.4 19.4 26.0 21.1 22.4 22.9 22.5 22.5
Accounts receivable (days) 110.0 117.8 128.2 122.5 120.1 118.4 124.0 122.6
Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1
Net interest cover (x) 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.4
Net dividend payout 60.6 55.2 61.1 59.6 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0
Free cash flow yield 0.1 0.1 n.a. 0.1 0.1 n.a. 2.3 5.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Established in 1992 and listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange in 1996, Elite Material Co. (EMC) is a leading manufacturer of copper clad laminate (CCL) and prepreg (PP), and a mass lamination foundry for PCB players. The company is also the world's largest green (halogen-free) CCL supplier.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 EMC has incorporated 3 independent members into its 7-people board of directors in pursuit of better governance. Besides, EMC's Chairman and CEO roles are held separately, which reduce the risk of conflict of interest and excessive concentration of power. In addition, the company has 2 committees: the Audit Committee and the Remuneration Committee to assist the Board of Directors in performing their supervisory duties
G Capital management 1 EMC has declared a dividend payout ratio of over 50% in the past ten years, which we view as a shareholder-friendly dividend policy.
G Related party & transaction 2 Revenue from related parties accounted for <1% of total revenue, and the purchases from related parties comprised <1% of cost of sales. We see limited risk from related-party transactions
S Productdesign& lifecycle management 2 EMC strives to create a safe and healthy workplace for every employee. EMC has introduced the occupational safety and health management systems (ISO 45001) in its Headquarters and all production plants to reduce the workplace hazards and enhance its safety and health management level.
E GHGemissions 2 EMC follows ISO 14061-1 2018 standards to conduct GHG emissions inventory and propose feasible solutions for greenhouse gas reduction. Besides, a third-party inspection agency is appointed to perform external verification.
Company specific Company specific Management Analystcomments
G Cybersecurity&data protection 2 To ensure data security, EMC has formulated its Directions for Information Security Management based on three principles for information security management, which are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. In 2025, there were no incidents involving the violation of information-security-related laws and regulations, and no information security incidents occurred.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 28 Oct 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company