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報告_Daiwa_勤誠8210_20260810

更新 2026-08-10

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_勤誠8210_20260810_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-08-11)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260810_daiwa_Chenbro_001.png 30KB 真資料圖 勤誠股價走勢折線圖(藍線,左軸 TWD)與相對 TWSE 指數表現(金色虛線,右軸 %),時間軸 Aug-25 至 May-26
260810_daiwa_Chenbro_002.png 20KB 真資料圖 資料表:12個月股價區間 569.00–1,555.00、市值 4.17(USDbn)、3個月日均成交額 61.70(USDm)、流通股數 125(m)、主要股東 Feng-ming Chen(10.9%)
260810_daiwa_Chenbro_003.png 35KB 真資料圖 勤誠一年期預估本益比區間圖(12x/18x/24x/30x 四條參考線),時間軸 Aug-18 至 Aug-26;股價於 2026 年一度突破 30x 線後回落
260810_daiwa_Chenbro_004.png 23KB 真資料圖 勤誠營收結構堆疊長條圖(一般伺服器機殼/PC機殼/AI伺服器機殼),2024–2028E;AI伺服器機殼營收占比自 42%(2024)預估升至 63%(2028E)

原始內容

Taiwan

Chenbro Micom (8210 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,235.00 (from TWD1,888.00)

Share price (10 Aug): TWD1,075.00 | Up/downside: +14.9%

Downgrading: short-term hiccups

  • Short-term demand negatively impacted by component shortage
  • Will enjoy less spec upgrade than its AI component peers long-term
  • Downgrading to Outperform (2); lowering 12M TP to TWD1,235

What's new: We provide updates after Chenbro's 2Q26 results and downgrade our rating of its stock to Outperform (2) from Buy (1).

What's the impact: Business outlook. While we do not expect a major change in AI server shipment forecasts in the near term, Chenbro will face short-term hiccups from 3Q26 as one of its key clients is suffering from a memory shortage. This might, in our view, trigger weaker-than-ouroriginally-expected revenue momentum from 3Q26. In the long term, Chenbro highlights its new business strategy to proliferate its product offering from chassis-level to rack-level, which is why it is expanding to a new factory (leasing with total equipment capex of TWD600m) to support future growth. Although we believe some of the customised racks will keep a c.30% gross margin in the short term, we expect that to decline to c.25% when Chenbro grows its rack revenue to a certain size. Overall, we believe Chenbro might not only have to face short-term headwinds from its key client, but also encounter gross-margin dilution with its rising addressable market in the long term. Though we appreciate Chenbro's effort to expand its total addressable market, it does not involve meaningful spec upgrades compared with its AI peers, which might lead to a de-rating of Chenbro's PER multiple. Nonetheless, we believe its fundamentals are largely on track in our forecast period despite some short-term slowdown.

2Q26 results review: Chenbro's 2Q26 earnings came in at TWD1.38bn (EPS: TWD11.03), which was 10% below our expectation but largely on track with the Bloomberg consensus. Chenbro's 2Q26 revenue came in at TWD7.8bn (+10% QoQ and +44% YoY). Although the number was largely on track with the consensus, we believe our overestimation of the HGX and ASIC AI server chassis contributions in 2Q26 was the key reason for the 7% gap between our estimate and the actual number. Gross and operating margins came in largely on track vs. consensus, with strength due to ongoing NRE recognition. Lastly, net income was impacted by a higher tax rate in 2Q26 (26.3% vs. 23.8% in 1Q26).

What we recommend: We cut our 2026-28E EPS by 3-10% to factor in a weaker revenue momentum in the short term. We downgrade our rating of Chenbro to Outperform (2) from Buy (1) and cut the 12M TP to TWD1,235, based on a lower target PER multiple of 23x (from 34x), applied to our 1year-forward EPS forecast, due to short-term hiccups and less spec upgrade vs. peers. Key downside risk: worse-than-expected AI server demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are lower than the Bloomberg consensus by 5-12% due mainly to our more bearish view on profitability.

10 August 2026

Daiwa

5

Outperform

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang

(886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (8.5) (5.6) (1.4)
Net profit change (10.2) (8.0) (2.7)
Core EPS (FD) change (10.2) (8.0) (2.7)

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260810_daiwa_Chenbro_001
260810_daiwa_Chenbro_002
12-month range 569.00-1,555.00
Market cap (USDbn) 4.17
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 61.70
Shares outstanding (m) 125
Major shareholder Feng-ming Chen (10.9%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 32,732 44,373 54,319
Operating profit (m) 7,801 9,979 11,872
Net profit (m) 5,794 7,511 8,954
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 46.237 59.938 71.450
EPS change (%) 62.8 29.6 19.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (5.2) (9.3) (12.1)
PER (x) 23.2 17.9 15.0
Dividend yield (%) 1.3 2.3 3.1
DPS 14.0 25.0 33.0
PBR (x) 9.0 7.0 5.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 11.7 9.7
ROE (%) 44.9 43.9 41.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Chenbro Micom (8210 TT): 10 August 2026

Chenbro: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. Bloomberg consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 35,785 32,732 34,241 46,981 44,373 46,100 55,107 54,319 57,890
Diff (%) -8.5% -4.4% -5.6% -3.7% -1.4% -6.2%
Gross Margin (%) 31.3% 31.6% 31.7% 29.7% 29.3% 30.9% 29.2% 28.6% 29.1%
Operating profit 8,586 7,801 8,163 10,851 9,979 11,086 12,215 11,872 13,947
Op Margin (%) 24.0% 23.8% 23.8% 23.1% 22.5% 24.0% 22.2% 21.9% 24.1%
Net profit 6,449 5,794 6,111 8,168 7,511 8,280 9,204 8,954 10,192
EPS (TWD) 51.46 46.24 48.77 65.17 59.94 66.07 73.45 71.45 81.32
Diff (%) -10.2% -5.2% -8.0% -9.3% -2.7% -12.1%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Chenbro: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 7,107 7,821 8,528 9,276 8,447 10,611 12,313 13,002 22,001 32,732 44,373 54,319
COGS -4,774 -5,268 -5,868 -6,479 -5,964 -7,484 -8,708 -9,215 -15,407 -22,389 -31,371 -38,759
Gross profit 2,333 2,553 2,660 2,797 2,483 3,126 3,605 3,788 6,594 10,343 13,002 15,560
Operating expenses -554 -627 -657 -705 -659 -732 -800 -832 -1,827 -2,543 -3,024 -3,688
Operating profit 1,779 1,926 2,004 2,092 1,824 2,394 2,805 2,955 4,767 7,801 9,979 11,872
Non-operating profit 13 -22 -29 -29 -30 -29 -29 -29 65 -68 -118 -118
Pre-tax profit 1,792 1,904 1,975 2,063 1,794 2,365 2,776 2,926 4,832 7,733 9,860 11,754
Income taxes -427 -500 -470 -491 -427 -563 -661 -697 -1,171 -1,888 -2,349 -2,800
Net profit 1,336 1,383 1,504 1,571 1,366 1,802 2,114 2,229 3,558 5,794 7,511 8,954
Net EPS (TWD) 10.66 11.03 12.00 12.54 10.90 14.38 16.87 17.79 29.07 46.24 59.94 71.45
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 32.8% 32.6% 31.2% 30.1% 29.4% 29.5% 29.3% 29.1% 30.0% 31.6% 29.3% 28.6%
Operating margin 25.0% 24.6% 23.5% 22.5% 21.6% 22.6% 22.8% 22.7% 21.7% 23.8% 22.5% 21.9%
Pre-tax margin 25.2% 24.3% 23.2% 22.2% 21.2% 22.3% 22.5% 22.5% 22.0% 23.6% 22.2% 21.6%
Net margin 18.8% 17.7% 17.6% 16.9% 16.2% 17.0% 17.2% 17.1% 16.2% 17.7% 16.9% 16.5%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 71% 44% 51% 38% 19% 36% 44% 40% 52% 49% 36% 22%
Gross profit 95% 57% 50% 40% 6% 22% 36% 35% 74% 57% 26% 20%
Operating profit 101% 55% 55% 55% 3% 24% 40% 41% 90% 64% 28% 19%
Pre-tax profit 98% 67% 47% 43% 0% 24% 41% 42% 85% 60% 28% 19%
Net profit 100% 67% 51% 47% 2% 30% 41% 42% 84% 63% 30% 19%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 5% 10% 9% 9% -9% 26% 16% 6%
Gross profit 17% 9% 4% 5% -11% 26% 15% 5%
Operating profit 32% 8% 4% 4% -13% 31% 17% 5%
Pre-tax profit 24% 6% 4% 4% -13% 32% 17% 5%
Net profit 25% 4% 9% 4% -13% 32% 17% 5%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Chenbro: 2Q26 comparison table

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff% Consensus Diff%
Revenue 7,821 10% 44% 8,374 -7% 7,734 1%
Gross profit 2,553 9% 57% 2,663 -4% 2,441 5%
Gross margin (%) 32.6% 31.8% 31.6%
Operating profit 1,926 8% 55% 2,043 -6% 1,831 5%
Operating margin (%) 24.6% 24.4% 23.7%
Pre-tax profit 1,904 6% 67% 2,017 -6% 1,832 4%
Net profit 1,383 4% 67% 1,533 -10% 1,374 1%
EPS (TWD) 11.03 4% 67% 12.23 -10% 10.96 1%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Chenbro: 1-year forward PER bands

260810_daiwa_Chenbro_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Chenbro: revenue breakdown

260810_daiwa_Chenbro_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
AI server chassis shipment (k) 0.0 0.0 30.1 73.7 215.3 432.3 529.6 645.3
Regular server chassis shipment (k) 2,089.7 2,078.7 1,670.0 1,620.0 1,697.1 1,972.3 2,382.2 3,031.3
Total server shipment (K) 2,089.7 2,078.7 1,700.1 1,693.7 1,912.4 2,404.7 2,911.8 3,676.5

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
AI server chassis 0 0 2,290 6,116 13,597 23,541 32,886 39,746
Regular server chassis 8,896 10,316 8,501 8,245 8,261 8,854 11,327 14,414
Other Revenue 527 241 457 156 144 338 160 160
Total Revenue 9,423 10,558 11,247 14,517 22,001 32,732 44,373 54,319
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (7,579) (8,427) (8,673) (10,727) (15,407) (22,389) (31,371) (38,759)
SG&A (757) (792) (937) (1,059) (1,479) (2,000) (2,272) (2,757)
Other op.expenses (204) (197) (176) (224) (347) (543) (752) (931)
Operating profit 882 1,142 1,462 2,506 4,767 7,801 9,979 11,872
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 4 (28) (46) (19) (6) (21) (18) (18)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (1) 229 14 124 71 (46) (100) (100)
Pre-tax profit 886 1,343 1,430 2,611 4,832 7,733 9,860 11,754
Tax (214) (334) (323) (639) (1,171) (1,888) (2,349) (2,800)
Min. int./pref. div./others 1 (10) (22) (38) (102) (50) 0 0
Net profit (reported) 673 999 1,085 1,934 3,558 5,794 7,511 8,954
Net profit (adjusted) 673 999 1,085 1,934 3,558 5,794 7,511 8,954
EPS (reported)(TWD) 5.571 8.279 9.001 15.981 28.394 46.237 59.938 71.450
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 5.571 8.279 9.001 15.981 28.394 46.237 59.938 71.450
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 5.571 8.279 9.001 15.981 28.394 46.237 59.938 71.450
DPS (TWD) 4.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 7.500 14.000 25.000 33.000
EBIT 882 1,142 1,462 2,506 4,767 7,801 9,979 11,872
EBITDA 1,221 1,518 1,760 2,852 5,155 8,462 10,836 12,872

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 886 1,343 1,430 2,611 4,832 7,733 9,860 11,754
Depreciation and amortisation 338 377 298 346 387 661 858 1,000
Tax paid (214) (334) (323) (639) (1,171) (1,888) (2,349) (2,800)
Change in working capital (492) (1,106) 369 281 (2,059) 113 (1,535) (1,298)
Other operational CF items (76) 216 749 98 1,099 0 0 (0)
Cash flow from operations 443 495 2,524 2,697 3,087 6,619 6,835 8,656
Capex (1,997) (848) (215) (789) (984) (2,455) (1,775) (2,173)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 210 (19) (0) (688) 495 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (10) (44) (18) (112) (4) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (1,797) (912) (234) (1,589) (493) (2,455) (1,775) (2,173)
Change in debt 2,088 1,112 (682) 263 210 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (484) (362) (483) (603) (907) (1,754) (3,133) (4,136)
Other financing CF items (11) (10) (10) (9) (8) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 1,594 740 (1,175) (348) (705) (1,754) (3,133) (4,136)
Forex effect/others (19) 92 (21) 93 (1) 0 0 0
Change in cash 221 416 1,094 853 1,888 2,410 1,927 2,348
Free cash flow (1,553) (353) 2,309 1,907 2,103 4,164 5,060 6,483

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Chenbro Micom (8210 TT): 10 August 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 1,447 1,868 2,979 4,540 5,912 8,321 10,248 12,596
Inventory 2,399 2,400 1,843 2,187 3,925 4,907 6,876 8,495
Accounts receivable 2,468 2,418 3,667 3,736 6,566 3,139 4,255 5,209
Other current assets 181 270 99 121 181 181 181 181
Total current assets 6,495 6,955 8,588 10,585 16,583 16,548 21,559 26,480
Fixed assets 4,491 5,130 5,013 5,450 5,737 7,530 8,447 9,620
Goodwill & intangibles 21 52 73 65 57 57 57 57
Other non-current assets 247 206 313 544 1,079 1,079 1,079 1,079
Total assets 11,253 12,343 13,987 16,644 23,456 25,215 31,143 37,237
Short-term debt 1,076 1,545 376 641 1,222 1,222 1,222 1,222
Accounts payable 3,075 1,979 3,038 3,721 6,196 3,864 5,415 6,690
Other current liabilities 895 1,196 2,270 2,271 3,495 3,495 3,495 3,495
Total current liabilities 5,047 4,720 5,683 6,632 10,914 8,582 10,132 11,407
Long-term debt 1,963 2,652 2,701 2,671 1,332 1,332 1,332 1,332
Other non-current liabilities 67 34 26 76 134 134 134 134
Total liabilities 7,076 7,407 8,409 9,380 12,380 10,048 11,598 12,873
Share capital 1,208 1,206 1,206 1,210 1,253 1,253 1,253 1,253
Reserves/R.E./others 2,949 3,701 4,321 5,964 9,632 13,672 18,050 22,869
Shareholders' equity 4,157 4,907 5,527 7,174 10,885 14,925 19,303 24,122
Minority interests 20 30 51 90 192 242 242 242
Total equity & liabilities 11,253 12,343 13,987 16,644 23,456 25,215 31,143 37,237
EV 136,330 137,077 134,867 133,579 131,552 129,193 127,266 124,918
Net debt/(cash) 1,592 2,330 97 (1,229) (3,358) (5,767) (7,694) (10,042)
BVPS (TWD) 34.414 40.679 45.828 59.298 86.857 119.094 154.032 192.482

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 24.9 12.0 6.5 29.1 51.6 48.8 35.6 22.4
EBITDA (YoY) 3.0 24.4 15.9 62.0 80.7 64.2 28.1 18.8
Operating profit (YoY) (8.4) 29.4 28 71.5 90.2 63.6 27.9 19.0
Net profit (YoY) (31.1) 48.4 8.7 78.1 84.0 62.8 29.6 19.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (31.0) 48.6 8.7 77.6 77.7 62.8 29.6 19.2
Gross-profit margin 19.6 20.2 22.9 26.1 30.0 31.6 29.3 28.6
EBITDA margin 13.0 14.4 15.6 19.6 23.4 25.9 24.4 23.7
Operating-profit margin 9.4 10.8 13 17.3 21.7 23.8 22.5 21.9
Net profit margin 7.1 9.5 9.7 13.3 16.2 17.7 16.9 16.5
ROAE 16.6 22.0 20.8 30.4 39.4 44.9 43.9 41.2
ROAA 7.0 8.5 8.2 12.6 17.7 23.8 26.7 26.2
ROCE 14.6 14.0 16.4 26.1 39.4 49.8 50.1 48.4
ROIC 14.2 13.2 17.5 32.3 52.5 68.9 71.5 69.1
Net debt to equity 38.3 47.5 1.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 24.1 24.9 22.6 24.5 24.2 24.4 23.8 23.8
Accounts receivable (days) 82.9 84.4 98.7 93.1 85.5 54.1 30.4 31.8
Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3
Net interest cover (x) n.a. 40.4 31.5 132.8 764.7 369.4 550.4 670.5
Net dividend payout 49.5 53.8 48.3 55.5 46.9 49.3 54.1 55.1
Free cash flow yield n.a. n.a. 1.7 1.4 1.6 3.1 3.8 4.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1983 and listed on the Taiwan stock exchange in 2011, Chenbro started as the first computer chassis manufacturer in Asia with its own-brand rackmount systems, tower servers and PC chassis. In 3Q25, server-related products accounted for 99% of revenue and PC chassis 1%. The company is headquartered in New Taipei City and owns production sites in Shulin, Chiayi, Kunshan and Dongguan. Meanwhile, Chenbro also owns service centres in the US, Germany, and China.

Chenbro Micom (8210 TT): 10 August 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 Chenbro's board consists of 9 directors, including 4 independent directors - the total number of directors is slightly lower than that of other listed companies in our coverage. Chenbro held 5 board meetings in 2024 and the actual attendee rate was 91%. The majority of its board are co-founders of Chenbro, which is likely positive for the company. In addition, 4 out of 9 board members are female and the independent directors have diversified backgrounds with expertise in accounting and management. We see this as positive for overall board quality.
G Capital management 2 Chenbro declared a DPS of TWD7.5 in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 45%. The payout ratio in 2024 was lower than the payout ratio range of 50-90% over 2010-24 due to the sharp inventory digestion. As a leading server and PC chassis manufacturer, Chenbro should deliver solid revenue growth and FCF along with industry-leading growth rate in the regular server and AI server market. The higher R&D expenses and increased inventory requirements resulting from the revenue growth led to the slightly lower payout ratio in 2024 compared to the previous decade. That said, we think higher revenue growth for Chenbro in 2024 should partially offset the lower payout ratio.
Related party & transaction 1 There were no reported related-party transactions in both sales and purchases, in 2024. We see limited downside associated with related party transactions.
S Supply chain management 2 Chenbro has committed to the "Code of Conduct for Responsible Business Alliance" issued by the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA), which requires its suppliers to meet the standards of no child labour, no forced labour, zero discharge of untreated toxic or hazardous substance/materials, and zero behaviour that causes immediate physical harm to employees. In order to achieve better supply chain management, Chenbro imposes rules for its supply chain and will conduct quarterly evaluation reviews based on the purchase amount and compliance with sustainability standards. Chenbro hosted a supplier conference annually on sustainability, net zero and the disclosure of
S Data security 2 Chenbro has established a team to implement data security management. Moreover, it conducts data security training and education regularly for all employees annually.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 23 Dec 2025

Source: Daiwa, Company

Chenbro Micom (8210 TT): 10 August 2026

Daiwa