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原始內容
citi
02 Nov 2026 10:54:25 ET │ 14 pages
Auras Technology (3324.TWO)
3Q26 Preview: Deferrals Weigh on 3Q; ASIC Ramp Underpins 4Q26E/2027E Growth
CITI'S TAKE
Auras is scheduled to report 3Q26E results in mid-Nov, followed by its annual investor meeting in the following weeks. 3Q26 revenue fell short of mgmt.'s guidance of at least +15% QoQ on GB300 demand deferrals and Thailand flooding. We expect GPM below our prior forecast on lower scale and front-loaded expenses, and forecast 3Q26 net profit of NT$1.24bn, 13% below cons. We now model 4Q26E revenue growth of +20% QoQ on deferred demand and the ASIC liquid cooling ramp from Nov, and 2027E revenue growth of +50% YoY as multiple ASIC projects broaden the growth base. We raise our TP to NT$2,000 (20x 2027E EPS). Reiterate Buy.
3Q26 preview - Auras reported 3Q26 revenue of NT$9.8bn (+13% QoQ/+64% YoY), below mgmt.'s earlier guidance. The shortfall mainly reflected customers deferring GB300 demand into 4Q26 and the flooding in Thailand. Given lower revenue scale and certain expenses recognized ahead of the upcoming ramp, we expect 3Q26E GPM to come in at 28.2% (-0.2 ppt QoQ/-1.6 ppts YoY), below our prior forecast of 30.6%. With the opex ratio largely in line, we forecast 3Q26 net profit of NT$1.24bn (+28% QoQ/+27% YoY), and EPS of NT$13.32, 13% below cons.
Multiple ASIC projects to support 4Q26E/2027E - Mgmt. guided for 4Q26E revenue growth of +20% QoQ, driven by deferred 3Q26 revenue and the mass production of the ASIC project's liquid cooling version, which we expect from Nov. We raise our 4Q26E growth forecast to +20% QoQ (from +16%), with GPM improving to 31.1%. While VR cold plate qualification is ongoing, we believe Auras is well positioned to win multiple ASIC projects, with a second project likely to contribute from 2H27. We now forecast 2027E revenue growth of +45% YoY, with GPM expanding to 32.2% on a rising share of customized projects and a better mix.
Implications - We lower our 2026E earnings forecast by 5% on the softer 3Q26. We also raise our 2027E/28E earnings forecasts by 13%/20% on higher ASIC liquid cooling shipment assumptions and margin expansion. Our revised TP of NT$2,000 (from NT$1,800) remains based on 20x 2027E EPS. We believe recent concerns over the timing of various AI server projects are largely priced in. Given Auras' structural growth in the server business, widening liquid cooling content across GPU and ASIC platforms, and an optimizing global manufacturing footprint, we view current valuation as attractive and reiterate our Buy rating.
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31 Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | Diluted EPS (NT$) | EPS growth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 1,893 | 21.23 | 48.6 | 65.7 | 14.5 | 24.3 | 0.4 |
| 2025A | 2,572 | 28.26 | 33.1 | 49.4 | 11.9 | 25.7 | 0.7 |
| 2026E | 5,197 | 55.95 | 98.0 | 24.9 | 8.5 | 37.9 | 0.9 |
| 2027E | 9,352 | 100.47 | 79.6 | 13.9 | 5.4 | 44.5 | 1.7 |
| 2028E | 12,278 | 131.92 | 31.3 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 38.6 | 3.1 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
n Buy
Price (02 Nov 26 15:00) NT$1,395.00
Target price NT$2,000.00↑
from NT$1,800.00
Expected share price return
43.4%
Expected dividend yield
1.7%
Expected total return
45.1%
Market Cap NT$129,842M US$3,980M
Price Performance (RIC: 3324.TWO, BB: 3324 TT)
Michael Hung AC
+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) | 3324.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec - 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Price: - Valuation ratios | NT$1,395.00; TP: NT$2,000.00; Market Cap: NT$129,842m; Recomm: Buy - 2024 | NT$1,395.00; TP: NT$2,000.00; Market Cap: NT$129,842m; Recomm: Buy - 2025 | NT$1,395.00; TP: NT$2,000.00; Market Cap: NT$129,842m; Recomm: Buy - 2026E | NT$1,395.00; TP: NT$2,000.00; Market Cap: NT$129,842m; Recomm: Buy - 2027E | NT$1,395.00; TP: NT$2,000.00; Market Cap: NT$129,842m; Recomm: Buy - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales revenue | 15,779 | 23,276 | 38,762 | 56,297 | 70,254 | PE (x) | 65.7 | 49.4 | 24.9 | 13.9 | 10.6 |
| Cost of sales | -11,753 | -16,904 | -27,344 | -38,179 | -47,165 | PB (x) | 14.5 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| Gross profit | 4,026 | 6,372 | 11,418 | 18,118 | 23,088 | EV/EBITDA (x) | 53.4 | 33.3 | 17.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 25.5 | 27.4 | 29.5 | 32.2 | 32.9 | FCF yield (%) | 0.2 | -2.2 | -2.2 | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA (Adj) | 2,420 | 3,931 | 7,819 | 13,210 | 16,781 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) | 15.3 | 16.9 | 20.2 | 23.5 | 23.9 | Payout ratio (%) | 29 | 35 | 21 | 24 | 33 |
| Depreciation | -509 | -672 | -979 | -1,282 | -1,239 | ROE (%) | 24.3 | 25.7 | 37.9 | 44.5 | 38.6 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 1,911 | 3,259 | 6,840 | 11,928 | 15,542 | EBITDA | 2,420 | 3,931 | 7,819 | 13,210 | 16,781 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 12.1 | 14.0 | 17.6 | 21.2 | 22.1 | Working capital | -85 | -82 | -81 | 0 | 0 |
| Net interest | 9 | -34 | -95 | -95 | -95 | Other | -692 | -4,420 | -6,992 | -6,731 | -5,761 |
| Associates | -21 | -45 | -26 | 0 | 0 | Operating cashflow | 1,643 | -571 | 747 | 6,479 | 11,020 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 468 | 97 | 51 | 0 | 0 | Capex | -1,436 | -2,234 | -3,577 | -3,200 | -3,200 |
| Pre-tax profit | 2,366 | 3,277 | 6,770 | 11,833 | 15,448 | Net acq/disposals | -285 | -191 | -274 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -434 | -580 | -1,301 | -2,282 | -2,969 | Other | 154 | -269 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | -39 | -126 | -271 | -200 | -200 | Investing cashflow | -1,567 | -2,695 | -3,851 | -3,200 | -3,200 |
| Reported net profit | 1,893 | 2,572 | 5,197 | 9,352 | 12,278 | Dividends paid | -568 | -918 | -1,117 | -2,257 | -4,061 |
| Net Margin (%) | 12.0 | 11.1 | 13.4 | 16.6 | 17.5 | Financing cashflow | 1,364 | 1,950 | 6,025 | 2,245 | 1,667 |
| Core NPAT | 1,893 | 2,572 | 5,197 | 9,352 | 12,278 | Net change in cash | 1,443 | -1,370 | 2,921 | 5,525 | 9,488 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 208 | -2,805 | -2,830 | 3,279 | 7,820 |
| Reported EPS ($) | 21.23 | 28.26 | 55.95 | 100.47 | 131.92 | ||||||
| Core EPS ($) | 21.23 | 28.26 | 55.95 | 100.47 | 131.92 | ||||||
| DPS ($) | 6.19 | 9.86 | 12.00 | 24.25 | 43.63 | ||||||
| CFPS ($) | 18.43 | -6.27 | 8.04 | 69.61 | 118.40 | ||||||
| FCFPS | 2.33 | -30.81 | -30.47 | 84.02 | |||||||
| ($) BVPS ($) | 96.41 | 117.63 | 163.70 | 35.23 257.46 | 380.56 | ||||||
| Wtd avg ord shares (m) | 89.2 | 91.0 | 92.9 | 93.1 | 93.1 | ||||||
| Wtd avg diluted shares (m) | 89.2 | 91.0 | 92.9 | 93.1 | 93.1 | ||||||
| Growth rates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 24.1 | 47.5 | 66.5 | 45.2 | 24.8 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 38.8 | 70.6 | 109.9 | 74.4 | 30.3 | ||||||
| Core NPAT (%) | 53.6 | 35.9 | 102.1 | 79.9 | 31.3 | ||||||
| Core EPS (%) | 48.6 | 33.1 | 98.0 | 79.6 | 31.3 | ||||||
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash & cash equiv. | 2,809 | 1,439 | 4,360 | 9,884 | 19,372 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 5,429 | 10,068 | 15,602 | 20,770 | 23,946 | ||||||
| Inventory | 2,810 | 6,057 | 10,235 | 13,614 | 15,690 | ||||||
| Net fixed & other tangibles | 4,641 | 6,610 | 9,353 | 11,325 | 13,341 | ||||||
| Goodwill & intangibles | 212 | 197 | 239 | 239 | 239 | ||||||
| Financial & other assets | 1,026 | 1,753 | 2,833 | 3,462 | 3,849 | ||||||
| Total assets | 16,926 | 26,125 | 42,622 | 59,295 | 76,437 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 3,775 | 7,594 | 9,639 | 12,997 | 15,060 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 475 | 2,678 | 2,133 | 2,133 | 2,133 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 1,675 | 2,021 | 8,381 | 10,626 | 12,293 | ||||||
| Provisions & other liab | 1,713 | 2,337 | 5,453 | 6,971 | 7,904 | ||||||
| 7,638 | 14,630 | 25,605 | 37,390 | ||||||||
| Total liabilities | 32,727 | 37,958 | |||||||||
| Shareholders' equity Minority interests | 8,961 327 | 11,085 410 | 16,328 688 | 25,680 888 | 1,088 | ||||||
| Total equity | 9,288 | 11,494 | 17,017 | 26,568 | 39,047 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -659 | 3,260 | 6,154 | 2,874 | -4,946 | ||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -7.1 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | 28.4 | 36.2 | 10.8 | -12.7 |
Figure 1. Auras - 3Q26 earnings preview
| (NT$mn) | 3Q26 Citi | 2Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 3Q25 Actual | Y/ Y | Diff. | 3Q26 Cons. | Di ff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,791 | 8,700 | 13% | 5,958 | 64% | -4% | 10,103 | -3% |
| Gross profit | 2,761 | 2,472 | 12% | 1,773 | 56% | -12% | 2,996 | -8% |
| Gross margin | 28.2% | 28.4% | -0.2 ppt | 29.8% | -1.6 ppt | -2.4 ppt | 29.7% | -1.5 ppt |
| Op. profit | 1,610 | 1,390 | 16% | 992 | 62% | -17% | 1,845 | -13% |
| OP margin | 16.4% | 16.0% | +0.5 ppt | 16.7% | -0.2 ppt | -2.6 ppt | 18.3% | -1.8 ppt |
| Net income | 1,240 | 969 | 28% | 974 | 27% | -18% | 1,423 | -13% |
| EPS (NT$) | 13.32 | 10.41 | 28% | 10.66 | 25% | -18% | 15.21 | -12% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg consensus
Figure 2. Auras - Earnings estimate revisions
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - New | 2026E - Old | 2026E - Chg . | 2027E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Chg . | 2028E - New | 2028E - Old | 2028E - Chg . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sa les | 38,762 | 39,310 | -1% | 56,297 | 53,977 | 4% | 70,254 | 64,616 | 9% |
| Sequential growth | 67% | 69% | 45% | 37% | 25% | 20% | |||
| Gross profit | 11,418 | 11,822 | -3% | 18,118 | 16,873 | 7% | 23,088 | 20,493 | 13% |
| Opex | 4,578 | 4,656 | -2% | 6,190 | 6,257 | -1% | 7,546 | 7,490 | 1% |
| Operating profit | 6,840 | 7,166 | -5% | 11,928 | 10,616 | 12% | 15,542 | 13,003 | 20% |
| Pre-tax profit | 6,770 | 7,096 | -5% | 11,833 | 10,521 | 12% | 15,448 | 12,908 | 20% |
| Net income | 5,197 | 5,462 | -5% | 9,352 | 8,292 | 13% | 12,278 | 10,227 | 20% |
| EPS (NT$) | 55.95 | 58.80 | -5% | 100.47 | 89.09 | 13% | 131.92 | 109.88 | 20% |
| Gross margin | 29.5% | 30.1% | -0.6 ppt | 32.2% | 31.3% | +0.9 ppt | 32.9% | 31.7% | +1.1 ppt |
| Opex ratio | 11.8% | 11.8% | -0.0 ppt | 11.0% | 11.6% | -0.6 ppt | 10.7% | 11.6% | -0.9 ppt |
| Operating margin | 17.6% | 18.2% | -0.6 ppt | 21.2% | 19.7% | +1.5 ppt | 22.1% | 20.1% | +2.0 ppt |
| Net margin | 13.4% | 13.9% | -0.5 ppt | 16.6% | 15.4% | +1.2 ppt | 17.5% | 15.8% | +1.6 ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, TEJ
Figure 5. Auras - Quarterly earnings forecasts
| (NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 8,552 | 8 , 700 | 9 , 791 | 11,720 | 12,328 | 13,464 | 1 4, 759 | 1 5 , 745 | 23,276 | 38,762 | 56,297 | 70,254 |
| Gross Profit | 2 ,5 37 | 2 ,472 | 2 , 761 | 3,648 | 3,918 | 4,31 1 | 4,770 | 5 ,118 | 6 ,372 | 1 1 ,418 | 18,118 | 23,088 |
| OPEX | (1,017) | (1,082) | (1,150) | (1,329) | (1,399) | (1,500) | (1,601) | (1,691) | (3,113) | (4,578) | (6,190) | (7,546) |
| Operating profit | 1 ,520 | 1 ,390 | 1 ,610 | 2 ,320 | 2 ,520 | 2 ,812 | 3,169 | 3,42 7 | 3,259 | 6,840 | 1 1 ,928 | 1 5 ,5 42 |
| Total Non-OP | 50 | (73) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | 19 | (70) | (95) | (95) |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,570 | 1,317 | 1,587 | 2,296 | 2,496 | 2,788 | 3,146 | 3,404 | 3,277 | 6,770 | 11,833 | 15,448 |
| Income tax | (305) | (278) | (296) | (422) | (485) | (541) | (610) | (646) | (580) | (1,301) | (2,282) | (2,969) |
| Net Profit | 1 ,164 | 969 | 1 ,240 | 1 ,824 | 1 ,961 | 2 ,197 | 2 ,485 | 2 , 708 | 2 ,5 72 | 5 ,197 | 9 ,35 2 | 12 ,278 |
| EPS (NT$) | 12 .61 | 10.41 | 1 3. 32 | 19.60 | 2 1 .07 | 23.61 | 26 . 70 | 29.09 | 28.26 | 55 .95 | 100.47 | 131 .92 |
| Revenue mix | ||||||||||||
| Server | 76% | 78% | 81% | 84% | 86% | 87% | 88% | 89% | 57% | 80% | 88% | 91% |
| VGA | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| NB | 13% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 20% | 11% | 7% | 5% |
| DT | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||
| Gross profit | 29.7% | 28.4% | 28.2% | 31.1% | 31.8% | 32.0% | 32.3% | 32.5% | 27.4% | 29.5% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| OPEX to sales | 11.9% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.7% |
| Operating Margin | 17.8% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 19.8% | 20.4% | 20.9% | 21.5% | 21.8% | 14.0% | 17.6% | 21.2% | 22.1% |
| Pre-tax profit | 18.4% | 15.1% | 16.2% | 19.6% | 20.2% | 20.7% | 21.3% | 21.6% | 14.1% | 17.5% | 21.0% | 22.0% |
| Net Margin | 13.6% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 15.9% | 16.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| Y/ Y | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 93.7% | 64.0% | 64.3% | 54.3% | 44.2% | 54.8% | 50.7% | 34.4% | 47.5% | 66.5% | 45.2% | 24.8% |
| Gross profit | 109.9% | 78.3% | 55.7% | 82.1% | 54.5% | 74.4% | 72.8% | 40.3% | 43.8% | 61.8% | 39.6% | 23.5% |
| Operating profit | 169.7% | 119.4% | 62.2% | 116.9% | 65.8% | 102.2% | 96.8% | 47.8% | 70.6% | 109.9% | 74.4% | 30.3% |
| Pre-tax profit | 135.6% | 524.9% | 31.7% | 92.0% | 59.0% | 111.7% | 98.3% | 48.2% | 38.5% | 106.6% | 74.8% | 30.5% |
| Net Margin | 127.7% | 512.8% | 27.3% | 96.3% | 68.5% | 126.8% | 100.4% | 48.5% | 35.9% | 102.1% | 79.9% | 31.3% |
| Q/Q | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 12.6% | 1.7% | 12.5% | 19.7% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.7% | ||||
| Gross profit | 26.6% | -2.5% | 11.7% | 32.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 7.3% | ||||
| Operating profit | 42.1% | -8.5% | 15.8% | 44.1% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 8.1% | ||||
| Pre-tax profit | 31.3% | -16.1% | 20.4% | 44.7% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 8.2% | ||||
| Net Margin | 25.3% | -16.8% | 28.0% | 47.1% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 9.0% |
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, TEJ
Bull/Bear: Auras Technology (3324.TWO)
Auras Technology
Company description
Auras Technology was founded in 1998 and focused on the design and manufacturing of thermal modules for NB/PCs. It quickly became one of Taiwan's top two NB cooling component suppliers. Early products included heatsinks, fins, heat pipes, and fans for NBs, PCs, and smartphones. As device form factor evolved, the company invested in new technologies such as ultra-thin vapor chamber in the 2000s to address the thermal challenges of increasingly compact consumer electronics. During the 2010s, Auras expanded into graphic card and server cooling and was an early adopter of liquid cooling technology. By 2012, the company had begun developing liquid cooling component and was among the first Taiwanese firms to venture into AI server liquid cooling.
Investment strategy
We rate Auras a Buy. Auras is emerging as a key liquid-cooling supplier as hyperscalers expand deployment. The company has secured qualifications for cold plates and manifolds, opening access to a wider slate of Nvidia and CSP projects. Thailand-based production offers non-China capacity at a scale aligned with hyperscaler sourcing plans, allowing Auras to compete more effectively for next-generation products.
Valuation
We value Auras using a PE-based approach, reflecting its accelerating earnings trajectory and rising share in liquid cooling market of AI servers. Our TP of NT$2,000 is based on 20x 2027E EPS, which we believe is justified given the company's expanding server revenue base, deeper engagement with CSP customers, and broader product portfolio across cold plates, CDMs, and CDUs.
Risks
This stock is High Risk based upon our quantitative model, but assigning a High Risk rating is not supported in our view by other qualitative factors such as rapid RVL progress and Thailand expansion, and so a High Risk rating has not been applied. Key downside risks to our investment thesis and target price include: 1) slower adoption of liquid cooling; 2) heightened price competition; 3) lower-than-expected share in liquid cooling components; and 4) emerging alternative cooling technologies.
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