PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_雙鴻3324_20260807_original.pdf
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19.6KB | 真資料圖 | 股價走勢折線圖（TWD 600–1,200，Sep–Jun 區間，近月股價於 900–1,200 區間震盪） |
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143KB | 真資料圖 | 左：Figure 3 Forward P/E band（10x/15x/20x/25x 帶狀線，股價自 2023 起走高並突破 20x 帶）；右：Figure 4 Forward P/B band（2x/4x/6x/8x 帶狀線＋Forward ROE 右軸虛線，ROE 約 20% 升至近 35% 後回落） |
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185KB | 真資料圖 | Bull/Base/Bear 情境圖：現價 NT$1,015（07 Aug 26）；Bull NT$1,800（+77%，target multiple 25x）／Base NT$1,550（+53%，2026E 營收 YoY +66%、2027E +25%，OPM 18.2–19.4%，target multiple 20x）／Bear NT$800（-21%，2026-27E 營收 YoY +15%、OPM 12%，target multiple 15x） |
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155KB | 真資料圖 | 上圖 Ratings and Target Price History：標示 2025-12-11 評等1／TPNT$1,525／收盤 NT$925；2026-05-06 評等 1／TP*NT$1,480／收盤 NT$1,105；下圖 Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch：2025-12-11 Add STV／2026-03-11 Remove STV |
原始內容
(RIC: 3324.1 WO, BB: 3324 11)
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Prepared for Kevin Lu
07 Aug 2026 12:26:55 ET │ 14 pages
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Auras Technology (3324.TWO)
2Q26 Missed on Margins/Non-Ops; GB300 Momentum Supports 3Q26E Outlook
CITI'S TAKE
Auras reported 2Q26 net profit of NT$969mn (-17% QoQ/+513% YoY), missing Citi/cons forecasts on weaker-than-expected GPM and non-ops. 2Q26 GPM reflected trail-production scrap tied to new product ramps and inventory provisions. Looking ahead, mgmt. guided for 3Q26E rev growth of mid-teens or higher QoQ, supported by strong incremental GB300 orders, with potential upside from earlier-than-expected next-gen platform ramp. GPM should improve sequentially on a richer liquid cooling mix with better revenue scale. We tweak our 2026E forecast but raise 2027E/28E, and lift our TP to NT$1,550 (20x 2027E EPS, rolled forward from 23x avg 2026-27E EPS). Reiterate Buy given structural growth and attractive valuation.
2Q26 results missed on margins & non-ops -Auras reported 2Q26 net profit of NT$969mn (-17% QoQ/+513% YoY), missing Citi/cons forecasts by 21%/22%, primarily on weaker-than-expected GPM and non-op items. 2Q26 GPM came in at 28.4% (1.2ppts QoQ/+2.3ppts YoY), below expectations, reflecting trail-production scrap costs from new product ramps alongside inventory provision. Non-op items were also a drag, with an FX loss of NT$108mn the primary contributor.
3Q26: Solid server orders with rising liquid cooling mix -Mgmt. guided for 3Q26E revenue to grow mid-teens-plus QoQ, driven by robust incremental GB300 orders. Earlier-than-expected next-gen platform ramp represents additional upside, and we now model +18% QoQ revenue growth. GPM should improve sequentially from 2Q26 levels, supported by a richer liquid cooling mix and better scale as volumes ramp. We expect liquid cooling mix to exceed 60% of total revenue for the first time. NB should also benefit from seasonal strength heading into the peak season, while VGA growth remains constrained by chip shortages.
Implications -We slightly tweak our 2026E earnings forecast to reflect the 2Q26 miss, while raising our 2027E/28E earnings forecasts by 10%/8% to reflect updated guidance and outlook. We adjust our TP to NT$1,550, based on c.20x 2027E EPS (rolled from an avg. of 2026E-27E EPS, down from 23x previously), reflecting continued investor sentiment uncertainty around the AI hardware demand outlook. Given Auras' structural growth in the server and liquid cooling business, we view current valuation levels as attractive. We reiterate our Buy rating.
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | DilutedEPS (NT$) | EPSgrowth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 1,893 | 21.23 | 48.6 | 47.8 | 10.5 | 24.3 | 0.6 |
| 2025A | 2,572 | 28.26 | 33.1 | 35.9 | 8.6 | 25.7 | 1 |
| 2026E | 5,326 | 57.68 | 104.1 | 17.6 | 5.5 | 37.2 | 1.1 |
| 2027E | 7,244 | 78.45 | 36 | 12.9 | 3.9 | 34.2 | 2.4 |
| 2028E | 8,686 | 94.07 | 19.9 | 10.8 | 2.9 | 29.8 | 3.2 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
n Buy
Price (07 Aug 26 15:00)
NT$1,015.00
Target price
NT$1,550.00↑
from NT$1,480.00
Expected share price return
52.7%
Expected dividend yield
2.4%
Expected total return
55.1%
Market Cap
NT$94,473M US$2,929M
Price Performance (RIC: 3324.TWO, BB: 3324 TT)
Michael Hung AC
+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Prepared for Kevin Lu
| 3324.TWO:Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price: NT$1,015.00; TP: NT$1,550.00; MarketCap:NT$94,473m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,015.00; TP: NT$1,550.00; MarketCap:NT$94,473m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,015.00; TP: NT$1,550.00; MarketCap:NT$94,473m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,015.00; TP: NT$1,550.00; MarketCap:NT$94,473m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,015.00; TP: NT$1,550.00; MarketCap:NT$94,473m; Recomm:Buy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 15,779 | 23,276 | 38,534 | 47,965 | 56,281 | PE(x) | 47.8 | 35.9 | 17.6 | 12.9 | 10.8 |
| Cost of sales | -11,753 | -16,904 | -26,968 | -33,086 | -38,660 | PB(x) | 10.5 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Gross profit | 4,026 | 6,372 | 11,566 | 14,879 | 17,620 | EV/EBITDA(x) | 38.8 | 24.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 7.5 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 25.5 | 27.4 | 30.0 | 31.0 | 31.3 | FCFyield (%) | 0.2 | -3.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 2,420 | 3,931 | 7,874 | 10,385 | 12,121 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 15.3 | 16.9 | 20.4 | 21.7 | 21.5 | Payout ratio (%) | 29 | 35 | 20 | 31 | 35 |
| Depreciation | -509 | -672 | -875 | -1,067 | -1,025 | ROE(%) | 24.3 | 25.7 | 37.2 | 34.2 | 29.8 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 1,911 | 3,259 | 6,999 | 9,318 | 11,096 | EBITDA | 2,420 | 3,931 | 7,874 | 10,385 | 12,121 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 12.1 | 14.0 | 18.2 | 19.4 | 19.7 | Working capital | -85 | -82 | -383 | 0 | 0 |
| Net interest | 9 | -34 | -95 | -95 | -95 | Other | -692 | -4,420 | -3,058 | -3,757 | -5,981 |
| Associates | -21 | -45 | -35 | 0 | 0 | Operating cashflow | 1,643 | -571 | 4,433 | 6,628 | 6,140 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 468 | 97 | 60 | 0 | 0 | Capex | -1,436 | -2,234 | -3,504 | -3,504 | -3,504 |
| Pre-tax profit | 2,366 | 3,277 | 6,929 | 9,223 | 11,001 | Net acq/disposals | -285 | -191 | -274 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -434 | -580 | -1,332 | -1,779 | -2,115 | Other | 154 | -269 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | -39 | -126 | -271 | -200 | -200 | Investing cashflow | -1,567 | -2,695 | -3,778 | -3,504 | -3,504 |
| Reported net profit | 1,893 | 2,572 | 5,326 | 7,244 | 8,686 | Dividends paid | -568 | -918 | -1,117 | -2,313 | -3,146 |
| Net Margin (%) | 12.0 | 11.1 | 13.8 | 15.1 | 15.4 | Financing cashflow | 1,364 | 1,950 | 6,160 | 1,674 | 2,421 |
| CoreNPAT | 1,893 | 2,572 | 5,326 | 7,244 | 8,686 | Net change in cash | 1,443 | -1,370 | 6,815 | 4,797 | 5,057 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 208 | -2,805 | 929 | 3,124 | 2,636 |
| Reported EPS($) | 21.23 | 28.26 | 57.68 | 78.45 | 94.07 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 21.23 | 28.26 | 57.68 | 78.45 | 94.07 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 6.19 | 9.86 | 11.63 | 24.07 | 32.74 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 18.43 | -6.27 | 48.01 | 71.78 | 66.50 | ||||||
| FCFPS($) | 2.33 | -30.81 | 10.06 | 33.83 | 28.55 | ||||||
| BVPS($) | 96.41 | 117.63 | 183.09 | 258.72 | 349.40 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 89.2 | 91.0 | 92.3 | 92.3 | 92.3 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 89.2 | 91.0 | 92.3 | 92.3 | 92.3 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 24.1 | 47.5 | 65.5 | 24.5 | 17.3 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 38.8 | 70.6 | 114.8 | 33.1 | 19.1 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 53.6 | 35.9 | 107.1 | 36.0 | 19.9 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 48.6 | 33.1 | 104.1 | 36.0 | 19.9 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 2,809 | 1,439 | 8,433 | 13,230 | 18,287 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 5,429 | 10,068 | 12,231 | 14,593 | 19,307 | ||||||
| Inventory | 2,810 | 6,057 | 7,606 | 9,148 | 12,093 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 4,641 | 6,610 | 9,508 | 12,000 | 14,533 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles | 212 | 197 | 239 | 239 | 239 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 1,026 | 1,753 | 2,218 | 2,484 | 3,015 | ||||||
| Total assets | 16,926 | 26,125 | 40,234 | 51,694 | 67,474 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 3,775 | 7,594 | 9,374 | 11,146 | 14,529 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 475 | 2,678 | 1,976 | 1,976 | 1,976 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 1,675 | 2,021 | 7,594 | 9,267 | 11,688 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 1,713 | 2,337 | 3,066 | 3,637 | 4,726 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 7,638 | 14,630 | 22,010 | 26,025 | 32,919 | ||||||
| Shareholders' equity | 8,961 | 11,085 | 17,536 | 24,780 | 33,467 | ||||||
| Minority interests | 327 | 410 | 688 | 888 | 1,088 | ||||||
| Total equity | 9,288 | 11,494 | 18,225 | 25,669 | 34,555 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -659 | 3,260 | 1,136 | -1,987 | -4,623 | ||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -7.1 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | 28.4 | 6.2 | -7.7 | -13.4 |
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Figure 1. Auras - 2Q26 earnings review
| (NT$mn) | 2Q26 Actual | 1Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 2Q25 Actual | Y/Y | 2Q26 Citi | Diff. | 2Q26 Cons. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,700 | 8,552 | 2% | 5,306 | 64% | 8,889 | -2% | 8,815 | -1% |
| Grossprofit | 2,472 | 2,537 | -3% | 1,387 | 78% | 2,652 | -7% | 2,586 | -4% |
| Grossmargin | 28.4% | 29.7% | -1.2ppt | 26.1% | +2.3ppt | 29.8% | -1.4ppt | 29.3% | -0.9 ppt |
| Op.profit | 1,390 | 1,520 | -9% | 634 | 119% | 1,596 | -13% | 1,588 | -12% |
| OPmargin | 16.0% | 17.8% | -1.8ppt | 11.9% | +4.0ppt | 18.0% | -2.0ppt | 18.0% | -2.0ppt |
| Netincome | 969 | 1,164 | -17% | 158 | 513% | 1,224 | -21% | 1,232 | -21% |
| EPS(NT$) | 10.49 | 12.61 | -17% | 1.75 | 499% | 13.26 | -21% | 13.29 | -21% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg consensus
Figure 2. Auras - Earnings estimate revisions
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. |
| Sales | 38,534 | 36,963 | 4% | 47,965 | 43,694 | 10% | 56,281 | 51,026 | 10% |
| Sequentialgrowth | 66% | 59% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 17% | |||
| Gross profit | 11,566 | 11,135 | 4% | 14,879 | 13,511 | 10% | 17,620 | 16,112 | 9% |
| Opex | 4,567 | 4,295 | 6% | 5,561 | 5,073 | 10% | 6,525 | 5,925 | 10% |
| Operating profit | 6,999 | 6,840 | 2% | 9,318 | 8,438 | 10% | 11,096 | 10,187 | 9% |
| Pre-tax profit | 6,929 | 6,819 | 2% | 9,223 | 8,342 | 11% | 11,001 | 10,091 | 9% |
| Net income | 5,326 | 5,293 | 1% | 7,244 | 6,585 | 10% | 8,686 | 8,015 | 8% |
| EPS (NT$) | 57.68 | 57.34 | 1% | 78.45 | 71.33 | 10% | 94.07 | 86.82 | 8% |
| Gross margin | 30.0% | 30.1% | -0.1ppt | 31.0% | 30.9% | +0.1ppt | 31.3% | 31.6% | -0.3ppt |
| Opex ratio | 11.9% | 11.6% | +0.2ppt | 11.6% | 11.6% | -0.0ppt | 11.6% | 11.6% | -0.0ppt |
| Operating margin | 18.2% | 18.5% | -0.3ppt | 19.4% | 19.3% | +0.1ppt | 19.7% | 20.0% | -0.2ppt |
| Net margin | 13.8% | 14.3% | -0.5ppt | 15.1% | 15.1% | +0.0ppt | 15.4% | 15.7% | -0.3ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Figure 5. Auras - Quarterly earnings forecasts
| (NT$in Mn,year-end Dec) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 8,552 | 8,700 | 10,261 | 11,021 | 10,796 | 11,508 | 12,690 | 12,971 | 23,276 | 38,534 | 47,965 | 56,281 |
| Gross Profit | 2,537 | 2,472 | 3,135 | 3,422 | 3,364 | 3,566 | 3,920 | 4,029 | 6,372 | 11,566 | 14,879 | 17,620 |
| OPEX | (1,017) | (1,082) | (1,190) | (1,277) | (1,252) | (1,334) | (1,472) | (1,503) | (3,113) | (4,567) | (5,561) | (6,525) |
| Operating profit | 1,520 | 1,390 | 1,944 | 2,145 | 2,111 | 2,232 | 2,449 | 2,525 | 3,259 | 6,999 | 9,318 | 11,096 |
| TotalNon-OP | 50 | (73) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | 19 | (70) | (95) | (95) |
| Pre-taxprofit | 1,570 | 1,317 | 1,921 | 2,121 | 2,088 | 2,209 | 2,425 | 2,502 | 3,277 | 6,929 | 9,223 | 11,001 |
| Incometax | (305) | (278) | (359) | (390) | (405) | (428) | (471) | (475) | (580) | (1,332) | (1,779) | (2,115) |
| Net Profit | 1,164 | 969 | 1,512 | 1,681 | 1,632 | 1,730 | 1,904 | 1,977 | 2,572 | 5,326 | 7,244 | 8,686 |
| EPS (NT$) | 12.61 | 10.49 | 16.37 | 18.21 | 17.68 | 18.74 | 20.63 | 21.41 | 28.26 | 57.68 | 78.45 | 94.07 |
| Revenue mix | ||||||||||||
| Server | 76% | 78% | 84% | 85% | 86% | 85% | 84% | 84% | 57% | 81% | 85% | 86% |
| VGA | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| NB | 13% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 8% |
| DT | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||
| Gross profit | 29.7% | 28.4% | 30.5% | 31.0% | 31.2% | 31.0% | 30.9% | 31.1% | 27.4% | 30.0% | 31.0% | 31.3% |
| OPEXtosales | 11.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Operating Margin | 17.8% | 16.0% | 18.9% | 19.5% | 19.6% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 18.2% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| Pre-taxprofit | 18.4% | 15.1% | 18.7% | 19.2% | 19.3% | 19.2% | 19.1% | 19.3% | 14.1% | 18.0% | 19.2% | 19.5% |
| Net Margin | 13.6% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 15.4% |
| Y/Y | ||||||||||||
| Netsales | 93.7% | 64.0% | 72.2% | 45.1% | 26.2% | 32.3% | 23.7% | 17.7% | 47.5% | 65.5% | 24.5% | 17.3% |
| Grossprofit | 109.9% | 78.3% | 76.8% | 70.8% | 32.6% | 44.2% | 25.1% | 17.7% | 43.8% | 59.5% | 22.7% | 16.8% |
| Operatingprofit | 169.7% | 119.4% | 95.9% | 100.6% | 38.9% | 60.6% | 25.9% | 17.8% | 70.6% | 114.8% | 33.1% | 19.1% |
| Pre-taxprofit | 135.6% | 524.9% | 59.4% | 77.4% | 33.0% | 67.7% | 26.3% | 17.9% | 38.5% | 111.4% | 33.1% | 19.3% |
| NetMargin | 127.7% | 512.8% | 55.2% | 80.9% | 40.2% | 78.6% | 26.0% | 17.6% | 35.9% | 107.1% | 36.0% | 19.9% |
| Q/Q | ||||||||||||
| Netsales | 12.6% | 1.7% | 17.9% | 7.4% | -2% | 7% | 10% | 2% | ||||
| Grossprofit | 26.6% | -2.5% | 26.8% | 9.2% | -2% | 6% | 10% | 3% | ||||
| Operatingprofit | 42.1% | -8.5% | 39.8% | 10.3% | -2% | 6% | 10% | 3% | ||||
| Pre-taxprofit | 31.3% | -16.1% | 45.8% | 10.4% | -2% | 6% | 10% | 3% | ||||
| NetMargin | 25.3% | -16.8% | 56.0% | 11.2% | -3% | 6% | 10% | 4% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates
NT$
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Aug 25
Prepared for Kevin Lu
47 477% Upside
NT$ 1,550.00
A 53% Upside
NT$ 800.00
• 21% Downside
Bull/Bear: Auras Technology (3324.TWO)
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Auras Technology
Company description
Auras Technology was founded in 1998 and focused on the design and manufacturing of thermal modules for NB/PCs. It quickly became one of Taiwan's top two NB cooling component suppliers. Early products included heatsinks, fins, heat pipes, and fans for NBs, PCs, and smartphones. As device form factor evolved, the company invested in new technologies such as ultra-thin vapor chamber in the 2000s to address the thermal challenges of increasingly compact consumer electronics. During the 2010s, Auras expanded into graphic card and server cooling and was an early adopter of liquid cooling technology. By 2012, the company had begun developing liquid cooling component and was among the first Taiwanese firms to venture into AI server liquid cooling.
Investment strategy
We rate Auras a Buy. Auras is emerging as a key liquid-cooling supplier as hyperscalers expand deployment. The company has secured qualifications for cold plates and manifolds, opening access to a wider slate of Nvidia and CSP projects. Thailand-based production offers non-China capacity at a scale aligned with hyperscaler sourcing plans, allowing Auras to compete more effectively for next-generation products.
Valuation
We value Auras using a PE-based approach, reflecting its accelerating earnings trajectory and rising share in liquid cooling market of AI servers. Our TP of NT$1,550 is based on 20x 2027E EPS, which we believe is justified give the company's expanding server revenue base, deeper engagement with CSP customers, and broader product portfolio across cold plates, CDMs, and CDUs.
Risks
This stock is High Risk based upon our quantitative model, but assigning a High Risk rating is not supported in our view by other qualitative factors such as rapid RVL progress and Thailand expansion, and so a High Risk rating has not been applied. Key downside risks to our investment thesis and target price include: 1) slower adoption of liquid cooling; 2) heightened price competition; 3) lower-than-expected share in liquid cooling components; and 4) emerging alternative cooling technologies.
Analyst: Michael Hung
Date
Date
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