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報告_Citi_台達電2308_20261029

更新 2026-10-30

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Citi_台達電2308_20261029_001.png 17,424B 真資料圖 股價走勢折線圖(2308 股價約 750-2,500,橫軸 Dec-Sep),無相對大盤線
報告_Citi_台達電2308_20261029_002.png 88,424B 真資料圖 Figure 3/4:Forward P/E band(10x/25x/40x/55x 四條倍數線,橫軸 2020-2026)與 Forward P/B band(2x/6x/10x/14x,右軸 Forward ROE 約 14%→28%);股價(粗藍線)2026 年自高點約 2,400 回落至約 1,500
報告_Citi_台達電2308_20261029_003.png 100,885B 真資料圖 Bull/Base/Bear 情境圖:Bull NT$1,950(+32%)、Base NT$1,715(+16%)、Bear NT$1,220(-18%),起點 2026-10-29 股價 NT$1,480,橫軸 Oct 25–Oct 27
報告_Citi_台達電2308_20261029_004.png 255,385B 真資料圖 Citi 評等與目標價歷史(Laura Chen):2023-11 至 2026-07 各次目標價調整表(最新 2026-07-22 TP 2,280、收盤 1,880)與 Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch 紀錄表;無新資訊價值,僅作歷史查核

全數 4 張逐張檢視(<40KB 者以拼圖逐張確認),無裝飾/文字卡。訂閱者浮水印(Prepared for 讀者姓名)已自文字層遮蔽(Citi),分析師姓名與聯絡信箱保留。

原始內容

citi

29 Oct 2026 11:21:12 ET │ 15 pages

Delta Electronics (2308.TW)

Inventory provisions weighed on 3Q26 margins; Sequential recovery expected in 4Q26

CITI'S TAKE

Delta's 3Q26 earnings were below market expectations due to component shortages and delays in AI data center deployment. GM down 1.6ppts QoQ to 34.1%, reflecting inventory provisions equivalent to 1.7% of revenue, while OPM remained resilient at 16.6% on operating leverage. AI-related businesses now account for approximately 50% of revenue. Management attributed elevated inventory to mismatches between component availability and customer shipment schedules. As shipments resume and inventories normalize, Delta expects revenue to grow sequentially in 4Q26, with GM unlikely to deteriorate further. Despite near-term supply chain volatility, we see the structural power content value upward trend intact. Maintaining Buy with NT$1,715.

Higher power density to drive content growth - The migration toward higherpower server architectures requires increasingly sophisticated power conversion, distribution, and thermal management solutions, supporting higher power content per rack. Management views Delta favorably to capture these opportunities. Nevertheless, rapid product transitions and uneven component availability could create temporary inventory mismatches, particularly as suppliers prioritize highermargin products at the expense of legacy components. In our view, given higher density GPU/ASIC rack shipment ready in bigger volume into next year, we expect a sequential growth outlook ahead.

HVDC transition ongoing, but big volume ramp could be more 2H27 onward - Delta already began shipping ±400V HVDC solutions in 3Q26. Management expects HVDC adoption to expand significantly over time, given its advantages in power conversion efficiency, distribution losses, and overall energy management. However, shortages of qualified electricians, particularly in the US, could delay installations. We expect more penetration of 800V HVDC with Rubin Ultra NVL576 ramping into late 2027.

Lower TP, maintaining Buy on long term growth trend - Lower earnings projection on power shortages, labor constraints, financing conditions, and regulatory uncertainties could create quarterly shipment volatility, but we believe multiyear AI infrastructure growth cycle remains intact. We maintain Buy with TP NT$1,715 (based on lower PER of 35x of 2027 EPS, from 40x previously).

Earnings Summary

Year to 31 Dec Net Profit (NT$M) Diluted EPS (NT$) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Yield (%)
2024A 35,229 13.56 5.5 109.1 13.3 13.1 0.5
2025A 60,108 23.14 70.6 64.0 11.2 19.0 0.8
2026E 93,847 36.13 56.1 41.0 8.7 24.0 1.3
2027E 126,570 48.73 34.9 30.4 7.0 25.7 1.7
2028E 201,195 77.46 59.0 19.1 5.3 31.6 2.7

Source: Powered by dataCentral

n Buy

Price (29 Oct 26 13:30)

NT$1,480.00

Target price NT$1,715.00↓

from NT$2,280.00

Expected share price return

15.9%

Expected dividend yield

1.3%

Expected total return

17.1%

Market Cap NT$3,844,364M US$118,697M

Price Performance (RIC: 2308.TW, BB: 2308 TT)

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC

+886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Michael Hung

+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com

Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091

jack1.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

2308.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2308.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2308.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2308.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2308.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2308.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec Price: NT$1,480.00; TP: NT$1,715.00; Market Cap: NT$3,844,364m; Recomm: Buy
Profit & Loss (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Valuation ratios 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue 421,148 554,885 757,649 1,058,154 1,545,385 PE (x) na 64.0 41.0 30.4 19.1
Cost of sales -284,567 -364,729 -488,235 -666,607 -950,928 PB (x) 13.3 11.2 8.7 7.0 5.3
Gross profit 136,580 190,157 269,414 391,547 594,457 EV/EBITDA (x) 50.4 32.5 21.7 15.5 9.9
Gross Margin (%) 32.4 34.3 35.6 37.0 38.5 FCF yield (%) 1.0 1.4 5.0 4.0 7.9
EBITDA (Adj) 72,668 111,771 164,283 226,513 348,705 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.7
EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) 17.3 20.1 21.7 21.4 22.6 Payout ratio (%) 52 52 52 52 52
Depreciation -25,016 -27,839 -35,945 -32,627 -39,252 ROE (%) 13.1 19.0 24.0 25.7 31.6
Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Cashflow (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
EBIT (Adj) 47,652 83,932 128,338 193,886 309,453 EBITDA 72,668 111,771 164,283 226,513 348,705
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 11.3 15.1 16.9 18.3 20.0 Working capital 4,363 732 22,946 -43,962 -35,199
Net interest 1,859 1,501 1,819 1,975 2,733 Other -4,136 -14,029 74,888 41,184 51,192
Associates 365 493 212 254 261 Operating cashflow 72,895 98,474 262,117 223,735 364,698
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 1,439 1,940 7,979 5,323 7,772 Capex -33,485 -46,091 -69,210 -71,000 -60,000
Pre-tax profit 51,316 87,866 138,347 201,437 320,219 Net acq/disposals -6,571 -6,528 -3,407 0 0
Tax -10,925 -19,930 -31,572 -46,331 -73,650 Other -304 -595 -1,630 -254 -261
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. -5,163 -7,828 -12,927 -28,537 -45,374 Investing cashflow -40,360 -53,214 -74,247 -71,254 -60,261
Reported net profit 35,229 60,108 93,847 126,570 201,195 Dividends paid -18,696 -20,313 -103,844 -48,438 -65,327
Net Margin (%) 8.4 10.8 12.4 12.0 13.0 Financing cashflow -11,118 -9,401 -22,648 -76,975 -110,701
Core NPAT 35,229 60,108 93,847 126,570 201,195 Net change in cash 30,003 33,713 165,222 75,507 193,736
Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Free cashflow to s/holders 39,410 52,383 192,906 152,735 304,698
Reported EPS ($) 13.56 23.14 36.13 48.73 77.46
Core EPS ($) 13.56 23.14 36.13 48.73 77.46
DPS ($) 7.00 11.94 18.65 25.15 39.98
CFPS ($) 28.06 37.91 100.91 86.13 140.40
FCFPS ($) 15.17 20.17 74.26 58.80 117.30
BVPS ($) 111.57 132.23 169.43 210.49 280.27
Wtd avg ord shares (m) 2,598 2,598 2,598 2,598 2,598
Wtd avg diluted shares (m) 2,598 2,598 2,598 2,598 2,598
Growth rates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue (%) 5.0 31.8 36.5 39.7 46.0
EBIT (Adj) (%) 16.4 76.1 52.9 51.1 59.6
Core NPAT (%) 5.5 70.6 56.1 34.9 59.0
Core EPS (%) 5.5 70.6 56.1 34.9 59.0
Balance Sheet (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & cash equiv. 121,793 155,113 223,884 219,427 299,087
Accounts receivables 89,921 121,717 162,441 250,337 358,691
Inventory 89,706 108,208 167,219 246,908 353,777
Net fixed & other tangibles 115,710 142,040 175,305 213,677 234,425
Goodwill & intangibles assets 0 0 0 0 0
Financial & other 114,768 112,542 119,792 125,688 134,000
Total assets 531,898 639,619 848,640 1,056,038 1,379,980
Accounts payable 69,223 94,452 120,683 164,343 230,290
Short-term debt 8,121 17,325 21,143 22,607 22,607 22,607
Long-term debt 32,209 17,788 17,788 17,788
Provisions & other liab 142,779 252,332 181,310 278,471 364,077 486,204
Total liabilities 314,230 439,548 568,814 756,889
Shareholders' equity Minority interests 289,809 -10,243 343,460 -18,071 440,091 -30,998 546,759 728,001
325,389 409,092 -59,535 -104,909
Total equity Net debt (Adj) 279,565 -81,463 -116,645 -183,489 487,224 -179,032 623,091 -258,692
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) -29.1
For definitions of the click -35.8 -44.9 -36.7 -41.5
items in this table, please here.

Figure 1. Delta - 3Q26 earnings review

Consolidated financials - NT$mn 3Q26 - Ac tu a l 3Q26 - Cit i 3Q26 - Diff (%) 2Q26 - Ac tu a l QoQ - (%) 3Q25 - Ac tu a l Y oY - (%) 3Q26 - Consensus 3Q26 - Diff (%)
Revenue 197,059 215,703 -9% 183,256 8% 150,318 31% 206,722 -5%
Gross Profit 67,155 77,707 -14% 65,308 3% 52,416 28% 74,515 -10%
Operating Profit 32,620 36,553 -11% 30,570 7% 24,809 31% 39,031 -16%
Pretax profit 33,666 38,520 -13% 35,000 -4% 26,983 25% 40,801 -17%
Net Profit 23,495 24,025 -2% 25,136 -7% 18,606 26% 29,599 -21%
EPS (NT$) 9.04 9.25 -2% 9.68 -7% 7.16 26% 10.43 -13%
Margins (%)
Gross Margin 34.1% 36.0% -1.9% 35.6% -1.6% 34.9% -0.8% 36.0% -2.0%
Operating margin 16.6% 16.9% -0.4% 16.7% -0.1% 16.5% 0.0% 18.9% -2.3%
Net margin 11.9% 11.1% 0.8% 13.7% -1.8% 12.4% -0.5% 14.3% -2.4%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg consensus

HVDC Adoption and SOFC Commercialization Create Additional Long-Term Growth Opportunities

Delta expects the transition toward high-voltage DC power architecture to accelerate as AI rack power density continues to increase. The company began shipping ±400V HVDC solutions in 3Q26, while NVIDIA is promoting 800VDC architectures for next-generation AI infrastructure. Management believes HVDC adoption will eventually become widespread given its potential to improve power conversion efficiency and reduce distribution losses, although standardization, installation requirements, and shortages of qualified electrical workers could constrain the near-term rollout. Beyond power conversion, Delta is developing solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) solutions to address growing demand for distributed power generation. The company plans to begin commercial production in 2027, with an initial manufacturing line providing approximately 100MW of annual capacity, primarily supporting customer qualification and pilot installations. Initial

3Q Result Miss, Expecting Recovery in 4Q26

Delta's 3Q earnings and GM were below expectation due to component shortages and delays in data center deployment. GM declined 1.6ppts QoQ to 34.1%, primarily reflecting inventory provisions equivalent to 1.7% of revenue, driven by supply chain mismatches, customer delivery postponements, and product specification adjustments. Nevertheless, OPM remained resilient at 16.6%, broadly flat QoQ and YoY, supported by operating leverage.

Management indicated that AI-related businesses across its four divisions now account for approximately 50% of consolidated revenue, highlighting Delta's increasing exposure to AI infrastructure investment. Management remains confident in Delta's competitive positioning, particularly its integrated capabilities spanning power conversion, power distribution, thermal management, and infrastructure solutions. Although the industry continues to face component shortages, especially for certain power semiconductor devices, Delta believes its supply chain management capabilities compare favorably to competitors. The company also plans to establish a major manufacturing facility in Penang, Malaysia, leveraging the region's established infrastructure supply chain and engineering talent.

customers include domestic utility and industrial users, alongside several overseas customers. Management emphasized that SOFC shipments will remain limited initially as the company prioritizes product reliability and qualification.

4Q26 Recovery Expected as Inventory Normalizes, with Positive Growth Outlook for 2027

Management expects revenue to increase sequentially in 4Q26 as delayed customer deliveries resume and inventory begins to normalize. Gross margin should improve from 3Q26 levels, although management remained cautious given potential year-end inventory adjustments. The 3Q26 inventory provisions largely reflected customer-specific products rather than structural obsolescence, and some provisions could potentially be reversed following successful deliveries. Nevertheless, management acknowledged that inventory buffers will likely remain structurally higher than historical levels to accommodate volatile AI infrastructure deployment schedules. Raw material costs have increased approximately 2% yearto-date, prompting ongoing pricing negotiations with customers, with limited recovery expected in 4Q26 and a more meaningful impact in 2027. Operating expenses will continue increasing in absolute terms to support R&D and capacity expansion. Management remains positive on 2027 revenue growth, although it did not provide quantitative guidance. Separately, management expects no near-term shipment disruption from the ongoing Vicor intellectual property litigation.

We lower earnings projection on power shortages, labor constraints, financing conditions, and regulatory uncertainties could create quarterly shipment volatility, but we believe its multiyear AI infrastructure growth cycle intact. We maintain Buy with TP NT$1,715 (based on lower PER of 35x of 2027 EPS, from 40x previously)

Figure 2. Delta - Earnings estimate revisions

NT$ mn 2026E - New 2026E - Old 2026E - Chg 2027E - New 2027E - Old 2027E - Chg 2028E - New 2028E - Old 2028E - Chg
Revenue 757,649 794,187 -5% 1,058,154 1,176,207 -10% 1,545,385 1,765,727 -12%
Gross profit 269,414 290,307 -7% 391,547 451,499 -13% 594,457 708,167 -16%
OPEX 141,076 150,937 -7% 197,661 220,153 -10% 285,005 327,361 -13%
Operating profit 128,338 139,370 -8% 193,886 231,346 -16% 309,453 380,805 -19%
Pre-tax profit 138,347 150,216 -8% 201,437 238,549 -16% 320,219 391,244 -18%
Net profit 93,847 98,861 -5% 126,570 149,898 -16% 201,195 245,908 -18%
EPS (NT$) 36.13 38.06 -5% 48.73 57.71 -16% 77.46 94.67 -18%
Ratio New Old d i ff New Old d i ff New Old d i ff
Gross margin (%) 35.6 36.6 -1.0 37.0 38.4 -1.4 38.5 40.1 -1.6
OPEX to Sales ratio (%) 18.6 19.0 -0.4 18.7 18.7 0.0 18.4 18.5 -0.1
Operating margin (%) 16.9 17.5 -0.6 18.3 19.7 -1.3 20.0 21.6 -1.5
Net margin (%) 12.4 12.4 -0.1 12.0 12.7 -0.8 13.0 13.9 -0.9

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, TEJ

Figure 5. Delta - Quarterly earnings forecasts

NT$mn 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27 E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net sales 159,353 183,256 197,059 217,982 212,938 242,318 289,975 312,922 554,885 757,649 1,058,154 1,545,385
Gross profit 58,961 65,308 67,155 77,991 77,922 89,572 107,398 116,655 190,157 269,414 391,547 594,457
OPEX 30,544 34,738 34,535 41,260 40,307 45,556 53,835 57,962 106,224 141,076 197,661 285,005
Operating profit 28,417 30,570 32,620 36,730 37,615 44,015 53,563 58,693 83,932 128,338 193,886 309,453
Total Non-OP 2,676 4,430 1,046 1,858 1,911 1,911 1,814 1,915 3,934 10,009 7,552 10,767
Pre-tax profit 31,093 35,000 33,666 38,588 39,526 45,926 55,377 60,608 87,866 138,347 201,437 320,219
Income tax 7,258 7,831 7,608 8,875 9,091 10,563 12,737 13,940 19,930 31,572 46,331 73,650
Net profit 20,556 25,136 23,495 24,662 24,652 28,644 34,539 38,735 60,108 93,847 126,570 201,195
EPS (NT$) 7 .91 9.68 9.04 9.49 9.49 11.03 13.30 14.91 23.14 36.13 48.73 77 .46
Product Mix (%)
Power Electronics 59% 57% 57% 55% 58% 58% 58% 57% 57% 57% 57% 60%
Infrastructure 32% 34% 35% 36% 35% 35% 36% 37% 33% 35% 36% 36%
Automation 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 10% 9% 6% 4%
Others 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Margins (%)
Gross profit 37 .0 35.6 34.1 35.8 36.6 37 .0 37 .0 37 .3 34.3 35.6 37 .0 38.5
OPEX to Sales Ratio 19.2 19.0 17.5 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.5 19.1 18.6 18.7 18.4
Operating profit 17 .8 16.7 16.6 16.9 17 .7 18.2 18.5 18.8 15.1 16.9 18.3 20 .0
Pre-tax profit 19.5 19.1 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.0 19.1 19.4 15.8 18.3 19.0 20.7
Net profit 12.9 13.7 11.9 11.3 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.4 10.8 12.4 12.0 13.0
Y /Y (%)
Net sales 34.0 47.7 31.1 34.9 33.6 32.2 47.2 43.6 31.8 36.5 39.7 46.0
Gross profit 56.0 48.3 28.1 39.5 32.2 37.2 59.9 49.6 39.2 41.7 45.3 51.8
OPEX 28.6 36.9 25.1 39.9 32.0 31.1 55.9 40.5 19.4 32.8 40.1 44.2
Operating profit 102.5 63.7 31.5 39.0 32.4 44.0 64.2 59.8 76.1 52.9 51.1 59.6
Pre-tax profit 98.5 78.8 24.8 50.4 27.1 31.2 64.5 57.1 71.2 57.5 45.6 59.0
Net profit 100.9 80.2 26.3 42.4 19.9 14.0 47.0 57.1 70.6 56.1 34.9 59.0
Q/Q(%)
Net sales (1.4) 15.0 7.5 10.6 (2.3) 13.8 19.7 7.9
Gross profit 5.5 10.8 2.8 16.1 (0.1) 15.0 19.9 8.6
Operating profit 7.6 7.6 6.7 12.6 2.4 17.0 21.7 9.6
Pre-tax profit 21.2 12.6 (3.8) 14.6 2.4 16.2 20.6 9.4
Net profit 18.7 22.3 (6.5) 5.0 (0.0) 16.2 20.6 12.1

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, TEJ

Bull/Bear: Delta Electronics (2308.TW)

Spread 49pp

Current Price and expected returns (upside/downside) as of 29 Oct 2026

BULL Assumptions

  • Target multiple at 40x

BASE Assumptions

  • Sales to grow by 36.5-39.7% in 2026E-27E with OPM at 16.9-18.3%
  • Target multiple at 35x

BEAR Assumptions

  • Sales to grow by 10% in 2026E-27E with OPM at 14.0%
  • Target multiple at 25x

Delta Electronics

Company description

Delta was established in 1975 and is the world's leading computer switching power supply manufacturer. Its business is divided into: 1) Power Electronics (59% of 2022 revenue), including Switching Power Supply, Components, Display and EV Solution; 2) Infrastructure (27% of revenue), including Wind power, Telecom power, UPS, EV Infrastructure, Networking; 3) Automation (14% of revenue), including Industrial Automation (IA), Building Automation; and 4) Others (<1% of revenue).

Investment strategy

We rate Delta Electronics shares as Buy due to its strong execution and the ability to expand margin through favorable product mix shift to AI power and thermal solutions. We believe EV business slowdown is in the price, and we expect margins to improve driven by AI solution spec upgrades and expanding business scale. Delta is now positioning itself as an infrastructurer enabler rather than a pure component supplier, which deepens its key position in the AI supply chain.

Valuation

Our target price for Delta Electronics of NT$1,715 is based on 35x 2027E EPS estimate. Our target multiple is set at the higher end of its trading range since 2023, which we believe is warranted by Delta's strong earnings growth and better product mix prospects. We also believe the company's leading industry position, long product development cycle, and strong engagement with customers should translate into high orders/earnings visibility.

Risks

Key downside risks that could impede the stock from reaching our target price are: 1) lower contribution from non-PC businesses; 2) products in the new businesses (LED lighting, electric vehicle, and Voice) growing more slowly than expected; and 3) PC power supply losing market share.

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Appendix A-1