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報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701

更新 2026-07-03

PDF 原檔:報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_original.pdf

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報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_003.png 40KB 真資料圖 Fig.2 國巨毛利率 vs 股價(2017–2019 上一輪上行週期,GM 峰值 ~63%)
報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_004.png 41KB 真資料圖 Fig.6 P/B band(1x–10x,2026 股價急漲至 7x 附近)
報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_006.png 109KB 真資料圖 野村評等/目標價三年沿革圖 + 表(2023-07 TP 112.99 → 2026-04 TP 415)

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原始內容

Relative performance chart

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

Price

(TWD)

1000-

750-

500-

2501

7-400

  • 350

-300

-250

-200

YAGEO Corporation 2327.TW 2327 TT

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

Churra. I CEC Namura

Enjoying stronger pricing power in this upcycle

The upcycle is still in the early stage and could last longer than the previous cycle; maintain Buy

Action: Maintain Buy; lift TP to TWD1,350, implying ~18% upside

We raise 2026F/27F/28F EPS from TWD18.7/24.4/29.2 to TWD20.9/33.2/45.0 due to a likely structural passive component industry shortage and an accelerated capacitor price hike. We think the current strong AI demand for high-cap MLCC at Murata (6981 JP, Buy) and SEMCO (009150 KS, Buy) is crowding out allocation to non-AI applications, and demand overflows could benefit Greater China passive makers such as Yageo whose current portfolios are skewed towards the 'low-end' and boost their pricing power. Specifically for Yageo, we believe it could leverage a broader product lineup for bundle sales of tantalum capacitors and R-chips (of which it is the world's largest manufacturer, according to Yageo) with MLCCs, at a more favorable pricing to monetize the structural uptrend. As such, we raise our TP to TWD1,350 (from TWD415), based on 30x 2028F EPS of TWD45.0 (previously 19x 2H26-1H27F EPS of TWD21.8), with the target multiple at the higher end of Yageo's historical trading band (8-40x) to discount the AI-driven business rally and a more favorable pricing environment. The stock currently trades at 34x 2027F EPS.

A more sound upcycle that could last longer than the previous one (2017-18)

Based on the previous upcycle, we believe the share price could peak roughly a quarter ahead of its gross margin (GM) peak (Fig. 1 ), and so far Yageo's GM is still in the early stage of expansion (Fig. 2 ). Also, we think the current AI-driven cycle might last longer than the previous cycle underpinned by automobile electrification, due to: 1) a much faster organic revenue growth for AI chips (TSMC [2330 TT, Buy] estimates at high-50% over 2024-29E; report ) vs. a long-term automobile industry CAGR of 5-10%; and 2) a faster AI platform refresh cadence (almost one new generation every year). We estimate Yageo's GM will expand from 36.2% in 2025 to 48.3% in 2028F, still below the 2018 high of 63.3%. We advise monitoring whether pricing dynamics would be in favor of Yageo given a likely worsening industry supply/demand imbalance into 2027-28F.

Massive content increases and capacity drain by AI is the root cause

Our industry checks suggest >3x MLCC content growth in nVidia's (NVDA US, Not rated) upcoming VR200 vs. GB300. Although Yageo is not a direct MLCC supplier, the significant capacity drain at Murata and SEMCO could squeeze allocation to notably mid/high-cap names with demand overflowing to Yageo for a richer mix. We also expect more tantalum capacitor to be used in AWS Trainium 3 vs. the prior generation, and Yageo is a leading tantalum capacitor supplier globally.

Year-end 31 Dec Currency (TWD) FY25 Actual FY26F New FY27F New Old FY28F New
Old Old
Revenue (mn) 132,930 174,417 186,351 211,612 245,013 244,216 301,989
Reported net profit (mn) 23,634 38,348 42,853 50,075 68,073 59,966 92,414
Normalised net profit (mn) 23,634 38,348 42,853 50,075 68,073 59,966 92,414
FD normalised EPS 11.51 18.68 20.87 24.39 33.15 29.20 45.00
FD norm. EPS growth (%) 20.8 62.3 81.3 30.6 58.9 19.8 35.8
FD normalised P/E (x) 99.0 - 54.6 - 34.4 - 25.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 61.0 - 37.2 - 24.0 - 17.6
Price/book (x) 13.5 - 11.5 - 9.2 - 7.4
Dividend yield (%) 0.5 - 0.8 - 1.3 - 1.8
ROE (%) 15.8 22.8 25.5 23.1 29.7 23.8 32.5
Net debt/equity (%) 32.7 11.0 9.7 net cash net cash net cash net cash

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Global Markets Research 1 July 2026

Rating Remains Buy
Target price Increased from TWD 415.00 TWD 1,350.00
Closing price 1 July 2026 TWD 1,140.00
Implied upside +18.4%
Market Cap (USD mn) 74,122.5
ADT (USD mn) 995.6

Relative performance chart

Source: LSEG, Nomura

報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_001

Research Analysts

Taiwan Technology

Anne Lee, CFA - NITB anne.lee@nomura.com +886(2) 21769966

Eric Chen, CFA - NITB

eric.chen@nomura.com +886(2) 21769965

Carol Hu - NITB

carol.r.hu@nomura.com +886(2) 21769963

Production Complete: 2026-07-01 12:20 UTC

Key data on YAGEO Corporation

Performance

(%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (TWD) 44.3 353.3 831.6 M cap (USDmn) 74,122.5
Absolute (USD) 42 353.8 752.6 Free float (%) 72.0
Rel to Taiwan TAIEX Index 42.6 314.2 727 3-mth ADT (USDmn) 995.6

Income statement (TWDmn)

Year-end 31 Dec FY24 FY25 FY26F FY27F FY28F
Revenue 121,667 132,930 186,351 245,013 301,989
Cost of goods sold -79,864 -84,800 -111,352 -132,880 -156,144
Gross profit 41,803 48,130 74,999 112,134 145,845
SG&A -18,418 -18,329 -21,613 -26,072 -28,577
Employee share expense
Operating profit 23,386 29,801 53,386 86,061 117,268
EBITDA 33,014 39,635 64,070 97,595 129,652
Depreciation -9,629 -9,834 -10,684 -11,534 -12,384
Amortisation
EBIT 23,386 29,801 53,386 86,061 117,268
Net interest expense 2,190 1,571 1,212 1,212 1,212
Associates & JCEs
Other income 1,287 -252 409 0 0
Earnings before tax 26,863 31,120 55,007 87,273 118,480
Income tax -7,377 -7,343 -12,117 -19,200 -26,066
Net profit after tax 19,487 23,777 42,890 68,073 92,414
Minority interests -130 -143 -37 0 0
Other items
Preferred dividends
Normalised NPAT 19,356 23,634 42,853 68,073 92,414
Extraordinary items
Reported NPAT 19,356 23,634 42,853 68,073 92,414
Dividends -10,265 -12,344 -19,284 -30,633 -41,586
Transfer to reserves 9,091 11,290 23,569 37,440 50,828
Valuations and ratios
Reported P/E (x) 119.6 99.0 54.6 34.4 25.3
Normalised P/E (x) 119.6 99.0 54.6 34.4 25.3
FD normalised P/E (x) 119.6 99.0 54.6 34.4 25.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8
Price/cashflow (x) 74.3 75.8 40.3 34.2 24.9
Price/book (x) 14.2 13.5 11.5 9.2 7.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 73.9 61.0 37.2 24.0 17.6
EV/EBIT (x) 104.3 81.2 44.6 27.2 19.5
Gross margin (%) 34.4 36.2 40.2 45.8 48.3
EBITDA margin (%) 27.1 29.8 34.4 39.8 42.9
EBIT margin (%) 19.2 22.4 28.6 35.1 38.8
Net margin (%) 15.9 17.8 23.0 27.8 30.6
Effective tax rate (%) 27.5 23.6 22.0 22.0 22.0
Dividend payout (%) 53.0 52.2 45.0 45.0 45.0
ROE (%) 15.0 15.8 25.5 29.7 32.5
ROA (pretax %) 8.0 9.7 17.1 26.7 34.8
Growth (%)
Revenue 13.1 9.3 40.2 31.5 23.3
EBITDA 13.2 20.1 61.7 52.3 32.8
Normalised EPS -8.8 20.8 81.3 58.9 35.8
Normalised FDEPS -8.8 20.8 81.3 58.9 35.8

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Cashflow statement (TWDmn)

Year-end 31 Dec FY24 FY25 FY26F FY27F FY28F
EBITDA 33,014 39,635 64,070 97,595 -11,205 129,652
Change in working capital Other operating cashflow -664 -1,188 3,716 -12,488 4,512 -10,533 -17,988 -10,954 -24,854
Cashflow from operations 31,162 30,863 58,049 68,402 93,845
Capital expenditure -6,363 -5,588 -8,500 -8,500 -8,500
24,799 25,275 49,549 59,902 85,345
Free cashflow -22,731 18,667
Reduction in investments 0 0 0
Net acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0
Dec in other LT assets liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inc in other LT Adjustments 0 0 0 0
-666 -16,805 0 0 0
CF after investing acts 1,402 27,138 49,549 59,902 85,345
Cash dividends -8,369 -10,265 -12,344 -19,284 -30,633
Equity issue 0 0 0 0 0
Debt issue 12,200 7,070 0 0 0
Convertible debt issue
Others acts 2,933 -3,587 0 0 0
CF from financial 6,764 -6,782 -12,344 -19,284 -30,633
Net cashflow 8,166 20,356 37,205 40,618 54,712
Beginning cash 52,951 61,118 81,473 118,678 159,296
Ending cash 61,118 81,473 118,678 159,296 214,008
Ending net debt 78,195 56,962 19,757 -20,861 -75,572
Balance sheet (TWDmn)
As at 31 Dec FY24 FY25 FY26F FY27F FY28F
Cash & equivalents 61,118 81,473 118,678 159,296 214,008
Marketable securities 40,704 16,634 16,634 16,634 16,634
Accounts receivable 21,969 27,792 33,543 44,102 54,358
Inventories 27,823 34,519 41,193 48,405
31,636
Other current assets 6,674 7,811 7,811 7,811 7,811
Total current assets 158,288 165,346 211,186 269,037 44,974 341,216 44,974
LT investments Fixed assets 39,141 44,974 44,974 63,121 60,087
66,410 65,305 56,203
Goodwill 94,926 106,700 106,700 106,700 106,700
Other intangible assets
Other LT assets 7,911 8,464 8,416 8,416 8,416
Total assets 366,676 390,789 434,397 489,214 557,509
76,348 76,348
Short-term debt 68,735 76,348 76,348
Accounts payable 15,003 18,031 31,179 37,206 43,720
Other current liabilities 30,240 41,700 41,700 41,700 41,700
Total current liabilities 113,978 136,079 149,226 155,254 161,768
Long-term debt 70,578 62,088 62,088 62,088 62,088
Convertible debt
Other LT liabilities 19,566 18,626 18,626 18,626 18,626
Total liabilities 204,123 216,793 229,940 235,968 242,481
Minority interest Preferred stock
Common stock 5,188 5,182 5,134 5,134 5,134
Retained earnings 147,616 161,842 192,351 241,141 302,922
Proposed dividends Other equity and 9,749 6,972 6,972 6,972 6,972
reserves Total shareholders' equity 162,553 173,997 204,457 253,246 315,028
Total equity & liabilities 366,676 390,789 434,397 489,214 557,509
Liquidity (x)
Current ratio 1.39 1.22 1.42 1.73 2.11
Interest cover - - - - -
Leverage Net debt/EBITDA 2.37 1.44 0.31 net cash net cash
(x) Net debt/equity (%) 48.1 32.7 9.7 net cash net cash
Per share
Reported EPS (TWD) 9.53 11.51 20.87 33.15 45.00
Norm EPS (TWD) 9.53 11.51 20.87 33.15 45.00
FD norm EPS (TWD) 9.53 11.51 20.87 33.15 45.00
BVPS (TWD) 80.05 84.74 99.56 123.32 153.41
DPS (TWD) 5.00 6.00 9.39 14.92 20.25
Activity (days)
Days receivable 63.6 68.3 60.1 57.8 59.7
Days inventory 125.5 128.0 108.4 104.0 105.0
Days payable Cash cycle 69.4 119.8 71.1 125.2 80.7 87.8 93.9 67.9 94.8 69.8

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

Company profile

Yageo is the global largest R-chip and tantalum capacitor and 3rd largest MLCC and inductor supplier (in terms of capacity). It has high market share in global passive components industry.

Valuation Methodology

Our target price for Yageo is TWD1,350, which is based on 30x 2028F EPS of TWD45.0. Our 30x P/E multiple is at the higher end of 8-40x P/E range since 2018. The benchmark index is TAIEX.

Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price

Key downside risks: 1) longer than expected inventory correction resulting in a low UTR, which would pressure ASPs; 2) failure to pass through high raw material costs from the high inflation in 2021; 3) intensifying competition from Greater China vendors; and 4) Higher OPEX than expected by new sensor business

ESG

Yageo corporation declares the metal conflict-free on products supplied to consumers. Yageo take due diligence with supply chain to assure the metals are not derived from or sourced from mines in conflict areas. Yageo establish and implement enviromental management of energy saving and waste minimization, strengthen resources recycling and reuse, reduce and disuse environment-prohibited material.

80.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

Apr-17

1,400

1,200

1,000

Fig. 1: Yageo share price vs. GM trend in the 2017-18 upcycle

600

400

38.0%

36.0%

34.0%

32.0%

Jan-25

1,000

800

600

400

報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_002

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_003

Source: Company data, Nomura research

Fig. 3: Yageo: Earnings forecast revisions

New forecasts New forecasts New forecasts Previous forecasts Previous forecasts Previous forecasts Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
TWD mn 2026F 2027F 2028F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Revenue 186,351 245,013 301,989 174,417 211,612 244,216.0 6.8 15.8 23.7
Gross profit 74,999 112,134 145,845 68,686 85,325 99,633.2 9.2 31.4 46.4
Operating profit 53,386 86,061 117,268 47,873 63,336 76,017.1 11.5 35.9 54.3
Pretax profit 55,007 87,273 118,480 49,231 64,199 76,879.3 11.7 35.9 54.1
Net profit 42,853 68,073 92,414 38,348 50,075 59,965.8 11.7 35.9 54.1
EPS (TWD) 20.87 33.15 45.00 18.68 24.39 29.2
Margins (%)
Gross margin 40.2 45.8 48.3 39.4 40.3 40.8 0.9 5.4 7.5
Operating margin 28.6 35.1 38.8 27.4 29.9 31.1 1.2 5.2 7.7
Pretax margin 29.5 35.6 39.2 28.2 30.3 31.5 1.3 5.3 7.8
Net margin 23.0 27.8 30.6 22.0 23.7 24.6 1.0 4.1 6.0

Source: Nomura estimates

Fig. 4: Yageo: P&L

(TWDm) 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 1Q26 2Q26F 3Q26F 4Q26F 2026F 1Q27F 2Q27F 3Q27F 4Q27F 2027F 2028F
Net revenue 31,104 32,771 33,087 35,968 132,930 38,166 45,011 50,114 53,061 186,351 55,409 59,544 63,478 66,582 245,013 301,989
COGS 20,018 21,119 21,112 22,551 84,800 23,624 27,421 29,519 30,789 111,352 30,830 32,291 34,093 35,666 132,880 156,144
Gross profit 11,086 11,652 11,974 13,417 48,130 14,542 17,590 20,595 22,272 74,999 24,580 27,253 29,386 30,916 112,134 145,845
Op expenses 4,623 4,609 4,412 4,685 18,329 4,929 5,241 5,555 5,888 21,613 6,006 6,367 6,749 6,951 26,072 28,577
Op profit 6,463 7,044 7,562 8,732 29,801 9,613 12,349 15,040 16,384 53,386 18,573 20,886 22,637 23,965 86,061 117,268
Non-op income 710 (15) 650 (26) 1,319 712 303 303 303 1,621 303 303 303 303 1,212 1,212
Pretax profit 7,173 7,028 8,212 8,706 31,120 10,325 12,652 15,343 16,687 55,007 18,876 21,189 22,940 24,268 87,273 118,480
Net profit 5,530 4,998 6,356 6,751 23,634 8,001 9,869 11,968 13,016 42,853 14,724 16,528 17,893 18,929 68,073 92,414
EPS (TWD) 2.69 2.43 3.10 3.29 11.51 3.90 4.81 5.83 6.34 20.87 7.17 8.05 8.71 9.22 33.15 45.00
Operating ratios (%)
Gross margin 35.6% 35.6% 36.2% 37.3% 36.2% 38.1% 39.1% 41.1% 42.0% 40.2% 44.4% 45.8% 46.3% 46.4% 45.8% 48.3%
Operating margin 20.8% 21.5% 22.9% 24.3% 22.4% 25.2% 27.4% 30.0% 30.9% 28.6% 33.5% 35.1% 35.7% 36.0% 35.1% 38.8%
Pretax profit margin 23.1% 21.4% 24.8% 24.2% 23.4% 27.1% 28.1% 30.6% 31.4% 29.5% 34.1% 35.6% 36.1% 36.4% 35.6% 39.2%
Net profit margin 17.8% 15.3% 19.2% 18.8% 17.8% 21.0% 21.9% 23.9% 24.5% 23.0% 26.6% 27.8% 28.2% 28.4% 27.8% 30.6%
Year-to-year (%)
Net revenue 9% 4% 4% 20% 9% 23% 37% 51% 48% 40% 45% 32% 27% 25% 31% 23%
Gross profit 15% 6% 7% 35% 15% 31% 51% 72% 66% 56% 69% 55% 43% 39% 50% 30%
Operating profit 30% 9% 14% 65% 27% 49% 75% 99% 88% 79% 93% 69% 51% 46% 61% 36%
Pretax profit 18% -5% 14% 41% 16% 44% 80% 87% 92% 77% 83% 67% 50% 45% 59% 36%
Net profit 20% -8% 13% 85% 22% 45% 97% 88% 93% 81% 84% 67% 50% 45% 59% 36%
Qtr-to-Qtr (%)
Net revenue 4% 5% 1% 9% 6% 18% 11% 6% 4% 7% 7% 5%
Gross profit 11% 5% 3% 12% 8% 21% 17% 8% 10% 11% 8% 5%
Operating profit 22% 9% 7% 15% 10% 28% 22% 9% 13% 12% 8% 6%
Pretax profit 16% -2% 17% 6% 19% 23% 21% 9% 13% 12% 8% 6%
Net profit 52% -10% 27% 6% 19% 23% 21% 9% 13% 12% 8% 6%

Source: Company data, Nomura estimates

44.0%

42.0%

Fig. 2: Yageo's GM vs. share price

Fig. 5: Yageo: P/E band

(TWD)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Dec-18

Fig. 5: Yageo: P/E band

Dec-19

40x

30x

Fig. 6: Yageo: P/B band

(TWD)

1,600

1,400

1,200

Source: TEJ, Company data, Nomura research

10x

報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_004

Source: TEJ, Company data, Nomura research

報告_野村_國巨2327_20260701_005

Source: TEJ, Company data, Nomura research

Rating and target price chart (three year history)

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YAGEO Corporation

Appendix A-1

Di

26

29

This report has been produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., Taipei Branch (NITB), Taiwan. See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entity details.