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原始內容
Semtech Technology (SMTC US)
Robust AI Demand amid Supply Constraint, 1.6T Products Ramp
Maintain Buy with TP of $162 Semtech delivered a F2Q revenue of $341.9mn (+33% YoY, +17% QoQ), beating consensus of $328.6mn, while non -GAAP EPS came in at $0.71, ahead of consensus $0.61. Non -GAAP gross margin expanded to 54.5%, up 150bps QoQ, hitting a new company record for the segment -driven data -center ramp. The company guided F3Q revenue of $410mn, non -GAAP gross margin of 58.3% and non -GAAP EPS of $1.02 -1.08, all above market consensus. Management emphasized extremely strong AI -related demand roughly 3x current supply capacity constrained by silicon and InP wafer/ OSAT capacity, and reiterated that data -center segment growth will remain robust though they discontinued providing explicit segment YoY growth guidance due to supply -side uncertainty. We forecast FY27E/28E EPS of $3.6/$7.4. Our TP of $162 is based on 22x FY28E EPS.
1.6T CopperEdge/FiberEdge ramping up: Semtech's CopperEdge 1.6T ACC solutions entered mass shipment to major hyperscalers in F2Q, moving from sampling to material revenue contribution. FiberEdge 1.6T TIA -driver solutions have commenced initial shipments in the quarter, with management targeting >50% market share within its targeted 1.6T market by end -FY27E. Following the HieFo InP laser acquisition, Semtech advanced vertical integration for TIA, driver, and laser chips to bolster long -term supply resilience, with meaningful laser -chip shipments yet to occur this quarter. A product -mix shift toward high -value 1.6T ACC and optical devices lifted gross margin sequentially to 54.5%.
NPO penetration and hyperscaler AI demand expand long-term TAM : The company deepened participation in industry MSA standardization for LPO and NPO, securing multiple customer design wins and opening incremental market space complementary to pluggable solutions. Management confirmed AI-related customer demand reaches roughly 3x current supply capacity, with growth constrained solely by SiGe/InP wafer and OSAT packaging capacity. Despite suspended explicit segment growth guidance due to supply uncertainty, multi-year hyperscaler demand visibility remains solid, laying a foundation for robust data center business growth throughout FY27E.
Risks: 1) Intensifying competition; 2) Slower 1.6T/NPO Migration; 3) Geopolitical risks.
| Profit forecast | FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 909 | 1,050 | 1,494 | 2,226 | 3,002 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 4.7 | 15.5 | 42.3 | 49.0 | 34.9 |
| Net profit (m) | 67 | 157 | 353 | 736 | 1,130 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | 639 | 134 | 125 | 109 | 54 |
| EPS ($) | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 11.2 |
| P/E | 145.2 | 74.7 | 35.5 | 17.3 | 11.4 |
| ROE ( % ) | 57 | 28.6 | 45.5 | 42.0 | 48.5 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Maintained Target price
Buy $162
Alicia Xia
SFC CE No. BSS651 aliciaxia@gfgroup.com.hk
Jeff Pu, CFA
SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Evan Lee
SFC CE No. BVI629 evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
Earnings revision
By factoring results and guidance, we revise our FY27E/FY28E EPS estimates by +16%/+2%.
Figure 1: Earnings revision
| USDm | FY26 | FY27E | FY27E | FY28E | FY28E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | Old | New | FY27E | FY28E | ||
| Net sales | 1,050 | 1,371 | 1,494 | 2,123 | 2,226 | 9% | 5% |
| Gross profit | 554 | 771 | 845 | 1,294 | 1,358 | 10% | 5% |
| Operating profit | 434 | 865 | 910 | 1,336 | 1,390 | 5% | 4% |
| Pre-tax Income | 428 | 852 | 897 | 1,323 | 1,378 | 5% | 4% |
| Net profit | 157 | 300 | 353 | 707 | 736 | 17% | 4% |
| EPS ($) | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 16% | 2% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 53% | 56% | 57% | 61% | 61% | ||
| Operating margin | 41% | 63% | 61% | 63% | 62% | ||
| Net profit margin | 41% | 62% | 60% | 62% | 62% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: Semtech's P&L forecast
| (USD m) | FY26 | F1Q27 | F2Q27 | F3Q27E | F4Q27E | FY27E | F1Q28E | F2Q28E | F3Q28E | F4Q28E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,050 | 291 | 342 | 411 | 450 | 1,494 | 462 | 507 | 569 | 687 | 2,226 |
| COGS | 496 | 137 | 156 | 172 | 185 | 649 | 187 | 201 | 221 | 259 | 868 |
| Gross profit | 554 | 154 | 186 | 239 | 265 | 845 | 275 | 306 | 348 | 428 | 1,358 |
| Opex | 353 | 95 | 103 | 106 | 107 | 411 | 109 | 111 | 113 | 114 | 448 |
| Operating profit | 201 | 59 | 83 | 134 | 158 | 434 | 166 | 195 | 235 | 314 | 910 |
| Non-operating profit | -17 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -3 | -6 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -13 |
| Pre-tax profit | 185 | 60 | 84 | 130 | 155 | 428 | 163 | 192 | 232 | 311 | 897 |
| Income tax | 28 | 10 | 14 | 23 | 28 | 76 | 29 | 34 | 42 | 56 | 162 |
| Net Income | 157 | 49 | 70 | 107 | 127 | 353 | 133 | 157 | 190 | 255 | 736 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 7.4 |
| Diluted shares | 92 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 99 | 98 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 52.8% | 53.0% | 54.5% | 58.2% | 58.9% | 56.5% | 59.6% | 60.3% | 61.1% | 62.3% | 61.0% |
| Operating margin | 19.2% | 20.3% | 24.4% | 32.5% | 35.1% | 29.0% | 35.9% | 38.4% | 41.3% | 45.7% | 40.9% |
| Pre-tax margin | 17.6% | 20.5% | 24.5% | 31.7% | 34.4% | 28.7% | 35.2% | 37.8% | 40.8% | 45.2% | 40.3% |
| Effective tax rate | 15.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 17.7% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Growth (% YoY) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 15% | 16% | 33% | 54% | 64% | 42% | 59% | 48% | 39% | 53% | 49% |
| Operating profit | 35% | 24% | 71% | 143% | 216% | 116% | 180% | 133% | 76% | 99% | 110% |
| Net income | 134% | 45% | 89% | 142% | 202% | 125% | 170% | 126% | 78% | 101% | 109% |
| EPS | 94% | 35% | 74% | 127% | 191% | 110% | 162% | 121% | 76% | 99% | 105% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| Signal Integrity | 31% | 35% | 37% | 43% | 48% | 41% | 50% | 54% | 59% | 66% | 58% |
| Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless | 36% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 29% | 32% | 29% | 26% | 23% | 19% | 24% |
| IoT Systems and Connectivity | 34% | 30% | 29% | 24% | 23% | 26% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 15% | 18% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Buy with TP of $162
We rate Semtech Technology (SMTC US) at Buy and set our TP at $162, based on 22x our FY28E(CY2027) EPS estimate. We adopt FY28E as valuation basis to capitalize on FiberEdge/CopperEdge ramp-up which is the key market focus. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook.
Semtech's forward P/E valuation was traded at an average of 28x historically, excluding the impact of acquisition in 2023. We derive our target price based on 22x P/E, which is slightly below its mid-cycle level given the recent market expectations reset for CPO/optical. From peers comparison, our target P/E of 22x is below its peers of 45x, while we expect SMTC with opportunities to catch up driven by the earnings upside as well as robust trend of TIA/driver and NPO.
Figure 3: Semtech's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) Intensifying competition; 2) Slower 1.6T/NPO Migration; 3) Geopolitical risks.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | USD mn | USD mn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Current assets | 585 | 655 | 1,045 | 1,846 | 3,031 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 152 | 195 | 367 | 847 | 1,768 |
| Inventory | 164 | 196 | 200 | 280 | 351 |
| Accounts Receivable | 163 | 161 | 224 | 342 | 437 |
| Other current assets | 108 | 104 | 254 | 377 | 476 |
| Non-current assets | 834 | 755 | 886 | 872 | 863 |
| Long-term equity investment | 566 | 498 | 523 | 523 | 523 |
| Fixed assets | 126 | 109 | 88 | 73 | 64 |
| Other long-term assets | 141 | 148 | 276 | 276 | 276 |
| Total assets | 1,419 | 1,410 | 1,931 | 2,717 | 3,895 |
| Current liabilities | 283 | 276 | 449 | 481 | 509 |
| Accounts Payable | 59 | 84 | 80 | 112 | 140 |
| Short-term borrowings | 46 | - | 143 | 143 | 143 |
| Other current liabilities | 178 | 192 | 226 | 226 | 226 |
| Non-current liabilities | 594 | 585 | 461 | 461 | 461 |
| Long-term Debt | 506 | 491 | 349 | 349 | 349 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 88 | 93 | 111 | 111 | 111 |
| Total liabilities | 877 | 861 | 910 | 942 | 970 |
| Total Equity | 542 | 550 | 1,021 | 1,775 | 2,925 |
| Share Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 1,470 | 1,467 | 1,524 | 1,626 | 1,736 |
| Retained earnings | -396 | -436 | -56 | 596 | 1,636 |
| Minority interests | -533 | -482 | -449 | -449 | -449 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 1,419 | 1,410 | 1,931 | 2,717 | 3,895 |
| Income Statement | USD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Revenue | 909 | 1,050 | 1,494 | 2,226 | 3,002 |
| Cost of sales | 441 | 496 | 649 | 868 | 1,135 |
| Gross profit | 469 | 554 | 845 | 1,358 | 1,867 |
| Operating Expense | 320 | 353 | 411 | 448 | 477 |
| Operating profit | 149 | 201 | 434 | 910 | 1,390 |
| Interest Income | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Interest Expense | -90 | -41 | -12 | -16 | -16 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | 18 | 22 | 3 | - | - |
| Pre-tax profit | 79 | 185 | 428 | 897 | 1,378 |
| Income tax | 12 | 28 | 76 | 162 | 248 |
| Profit for the year | 67 | 157 | 353 | 736 | 1,130 |
| Minority interest | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 67 | 157 | 353 | 736 | 1,130 |
| EPS ($) | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 11.2 |
| Cash Flow Statement | USD mn | USD mn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Operating cash flow | 58 | 196 | 222 | 508 | 958 |
| Profit for the year | -162 | -40 | 380 | 652 | 1,040 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 43 | 41 | 40 | 42 | 45 |
| Change in working capital | -50 | 56 | -192 | -289 | -236 |
| Others | 226 | 139 | -7 | 102 | 109 |
| Investing cash flow | -12 | -23 | -44 | -27 | -37 |
| Capex | -8 | -10 | -25 | -27 | -37 |
| Change in investment | 2 | 2 | - | - | - |
| Others | -6 | -16 | -20 | - | - |
| Free cash flow | 50 | 186 | 197 | 480 | 921 |
| Financing cash flow | -22 | -124 | -26 | - | - |
| Change in Capital | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net Change in Debt | -657 | -76 | - | - | - |
| Others | 636 | -48 | -26 | - | - |
| Exchange influence | -1 | -5 | - | - | - |
| Net increase in cash | 23 | 43 | 152 | 480 | 921 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||
| Revenue growth | 4.7 | 15.5 | 42.3 | 49.0 | 34.9 |
| Operating profit growth | 60.7 | 35.1 | 115.7 | 109.7 | 52.8 |
| Net profit growth | 639.2 | 134.4 | 124.6 | 108.7 | 53.5 |
| Profitability (%) | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 51.5 | 52.8 | 56.5 | 61.0 | 62.2 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 16.4 | 19.2 | 29.0 | 40.9 | 46.3 |
| Net profit margin | 7.4 | 15.0 | 23.6 | 33.1 | 37.6 |
| Key Ratio (%) | |||||
| ROA | 4.8 | 11.1 | 21.1 | 31.7 | 34.2 |
| ROE | 57.0 | 28.6 | 45.5 | 42.0 | 48.5 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Interest Coverage | 1.7 | 5.0 | 36.6 | 56.9 | 86.9 |
| Current Ratio | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 5.2 |
| Net debt/equity | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Rating definitions
Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
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evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
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