報告_廣發香港_Dell_F2Q_20260903

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

Margin Beat, but Concerns amid High Expectations

Maintain Hold with TP of $497 : Despite high expectations, Dell still delivered another beatand-raise quarter driven by margin beat, on better mix/pricing/scale and stronger storage server sales. Accordingly, with disciplined OPEX, mgmt. raised its FY27E EPS guidance to $25.5, exceeding buyside estimates of ~$23. That said, while we view this uplift a positive besides solid adjusted FCF and return program, we remain mindful of: 1) continued supply constraint (especially memory) into next year; 2) enterprise momentum might normalize; 3) PC sell-through downside risk; 4) share pressure on SpaceX and CoreWeave. As such, given the stock's >5x P/E premium to peers and a likely margin peak this quarter as its AI server sales are going to surge on Rubin cycle, we maintain our Hold rating for the stock. By factoring in higher ISG margin and lower OPEX, we revise up our EPS estimates by +19%/+23% in FY27E/FY28E, respectively. Our TP of $497 is based on 17x FY28E EPS.

Results and Guidance on Margin Surprise: F2Q revenue of $47bn, +7% QoQ, a bit higher than the expectations. GM came in at 21.1%, driven by ISG strength on better mix and storage sales beat. In addition, with discipline OPEX, OPM came in at 12.6%, up 2.9 ppts QoQ. EPS of $7.04. For F3Q, it guided sales to be $49bn at the mid-point with EPS to $6.50, inline with our forecasts. OPM-wise, ISG is projected at down QoQ/up YoY and CSG at 6% to balance share/profitability. For FY27E, mgmt. guided up: 1) Revenue of $192bn (from $167bn); 2) ISG up ~120% (from ~80%); 3) Traditional servers up just over 100%; 4) CSG up mid-teens (from low teens); 5) OP up ~120%; 6) Non-GAAP EPS of $25.50 (up from $17.90).

Storage and Neoclouds Traction, yet Supply Constraint Persists: During the quarter, storage server revenue reached $4.8bn, higher than expectations of $4.2-4.3bn, driven by strong demand for Dell's IP, which drove sales growth and margin expansion for ISG. Looking forward, it is expected to return to seasonality for the FY2H27E, despite like-for-like margin improvement (e.g., PowerStore) to support profitability. On the other hand, per our preview report on Aug 28, we expect tier-2 neoclouds (Crusoe, IREN, Nscale, etc.) to fuel AI orders for Dell, which was reflected in record AI orders of $60.9bn and backlog of $95bn. Beyond GPU systems, mgmt. also mentioned the incremental CPU server demand from neolcouds' agentic AI workloads. However, we expect the supply tightness (mainly on DDR5 RDIMM) to persist into 2H and next year, which may cap the traditional server upside ahead.

Risks: 1) AI demand slows down; 2) Components supply constraint; 3) Competition.

Profit forecast

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Maintained

Hold

Target price

$ 497

Evan Lee

SFC CE No. BVI629 evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk