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Dell Technologies (DELL US)
Preview; Neocloud Dynamics, Enterprise/PC Moderation
Retain Hold : Dell's share price has remained relatively resilient amid the tech retreat in July, supported by momentum across AI & GP servers, as evidenced by recent OEMs' beats. Nevertheless, we see early signs of moderation on enterprise and PC demand following robust 1H26 pull-ins. Competition wise, consistent with our view, we see increasing evidence that Dell's leading position is eroding starting with Rubin, as we believe Hon Hai has recently secured more wins from SpaceX. On the positive front, accelerating infrastructure buildouts for tier-2 Neoclouds should provide support to Dell's AI backlog, alongside Vera CPU racks to Oracle and SpaceX. We revise our EPS estimates for FY27E/FY28E to reflect stronger AI outlook for Neoclouds. That said, we reiterate that the stock is unattractive at ~20x FY28E EPS. Our TP of $428 is still based on 18x FY28E EPS.
F2Q27E Preview; Set for Guidance Raise: For F2Q27E, we forecast revenue of $42.2bn (vs. guidance of $44.5bn at mid-point and consensus of $44.8bn), reflecting AI server shipment timing. GM is projected at 18.3% and EPS of $4.70, versus consensus of 17.4% and $4.84. For FY27E, we expect the company to raise its AI server guidance again (likely to $75bn), which would support upward revisions to its full-year revenue & EPS from $167bn and $17.90 now. However, we believe this is anticipated by the market.
Neoclouds Tailwinds & Headwinds: Backed by recent OEMs beats and Nvidia's CEO commentary on ACIE growth, we expect stronger AI server deployments (NVL72/HGX) across IREN, NScale, and Crusoe (tier-2 Neoclouds) to support Dell's AI backlog, along with Vera CPU racks shipments to Oracle and SpaceX. On the negative side, we believe Hon Hai (2317 TT Buy) has secured more orders (multi-k) from SpaceX, weakening Dell's major share position on Rubin cycle. We revise Dell's NVL72 shipment to 17k/20k in FY27E/FY28E.
Enterprise/PC Momentum to Moderate? Post solid GP server sales in 1H26 for enterprise, we see the early signs of momentum slowing down, partly constrained by memory. On PC, with weakening sell -through and moderation of ODM builds, we expect a QoQ decline throughout 3Q & 4Q. For now, we forecast its traditional server and CSG revenue growth of +75%/+4% in FY27E, respectively.
Risks: 1) AI demand slows down; 2) Components supply constraint; 3) Competition.
Profit forecast
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 95,567 | 113,538 | 200,652 | 263,549 | 295,622 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 8.1 | 18.8 | 76.7 | 31.3 | 12.2 |
| Net profit (m) | 5,863 | 7,046 | 14,328 | 15,383 | 16,617 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | 8.1 | 20.2 | 103.4 | 7.4 | 8.0 |
| EPS ($) | 8.1 | 10.3 | 22.0 | 23.8 | 25.9 |
| P/E | 58.7 | 46.0 | 21.5 | 19.9 | 18.3 |
| ROE ( % ) | -395.6 | -285.3 | 418.8 | 214.8 | 138.6 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully. 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Downgrade
Hold
Target price
$ 428
Evan Lee
SFC CE No. BVI629 evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
Figure 1: Dell's FCF and capital returns (USD bn)
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings revision
By factoring in robust Neoclouds AI server outlook, we revise our EPS estimates by +11%/+6% in FY27E/FY28E.
Figure 2: Earnings revision
| USDm | FY26 | FY27E | FY27E | FY28E | FY28E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDm | FY26 | Old | New | Old | New | FY27E | FY28E |
| Net sales | 113,538 | 188,228 | 200,652 | 229,190 | 263,549 | 7% | 15% |
| Gross profit | 23,159 | 32,108 | 34,088 | 34,633 | 36,524 | 6% | 5% |
| Operating profit | 9,991 | 17,211 | 18,891 | 19,033 | 20,124 | 10% | 6% |
| Pre-tax Income | 8,593 | 15,794 | 17,474 | 17,669 | 18,760 | 11% | 6% |
| Net profit | 7,046 | 12,951 | 14,328 | 14,488 | 15,383 | 11% | 6% |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 10.29 | 19.88 | 21.99 | 22.41 | 23.79 | 11% | 6% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 20.4% | 17.1% | 17.0% | 15.1% | 13.9% | ||
| Operating margin | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | ||
| Net profit margin | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 3: Dell's P&L forecast
| (USD m) | FY26 | F1Q27 | F2Q27E | F3Q27E | F4Q27E | FY27E | F1Q28E | F2Q28E | F3Q28E | F4Q28E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 113,538 | 43,842 | 42,230 | 56,451 | 58,128 | 200,652 | 57,135 | 68,110 | 70,294 | 68,010 | 263,549 |
| COGS | 90,379 | 35,895 | 34,509 | 47,074 | 49,086 | 166,563 | 48,644 | 58,993 | 60,625 | 58,763 | 227,025 |
| Gross profit | 23,159 | 7,947 | 7,722 | 9,377 | 9,042 | 34,088 | 8,491 | 9,117 | 9,669 | 9,247 | 36,524 |
| Opex | 13,168 | 3,712 | 3,695 | 3,845 | 3,945 | 15,197 | 3,850 | 4,150 | 4,250 | 4,150 | 16,400 |
| Operating profit | 9,991 | 4,235 | 4,027 | 5,532 | 5,097 | 18,891 | 4,641 | 4,967 | 5,419 | 5,097 | 20,124 |
| Non-op profit | -1,398 | -344 | -291 | -391 | -391 | -1,417 | -341 | -341 | -341 | -341 | -1,364 |
| Pre-tax profit | 8,593 | 3,891 | 3,736 | 5,141 | 4,706 | 17,474 | 4,300 | 4,626 | 5,078 | 4,756 | 18,760 |
| Income tax | 1,547 | 701 | 672 | 925 | 847 | 3,146 | 774 | 833 | 914 | 856 | 3,377 |
| Net Income | 7,046 | 3,190 | 3,063 | 4,216 | 3,859 | 14,328 | 3,526 | 3,793 | 4,164 | 3,900 | 15,383 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 10.3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 23.8 |
| Diluted shares | 685 | 656 | 652 | 650 | 648 | 652 | 650 | 648 | 646 | 644 | 647 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 20.4% | 18.1% | 18.3% | 16.6% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 13.9% |
| Operating margin | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
| Pre-tax margin | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% |
| Effective tax rate | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 19% | 88% | 42% | 109% | 74% | 77% | 30% | 61% | 25% | 17% | 31% |
| Operating profit | 17% | 154% | 76% | 121% | 44% | 89% | 10% | 23% | -2% | 0% | 7% |
| Net income | 20% | 194% | 93% | 139% | 48% | 103% | 11% | 24% | -1% | 1% | 7% |
| EPS | 26% | 214% | 103% | 150% | 53% | 114% | 12% | 25% | -1% | 2% | 8% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| ISG | 54% | 66% | 68% | 77% | 79% | 73% | 78% | 81% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| CSG | 45% | 33% | 31% | 23% | 21% | 26% | 22% | 19% | 19% | 20% | 20% |
| Others | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Hold with TP of $428
We retain Hold rating for Dell (DELL US) and set our TP at $428, which is based on 18x our FY28E (CY2027) EPS estimate. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to downstream firms.
Dell's P/E traded at an average of 9.6x since 2022 and broke up to a new range of 10-22x since 1Q24, due to the breakthrough in AI business. Our target price is based on 18x FY28E P/E, which is close to the upper end with this AI cycle, due to strengthened server visibility and improving margin profile.
On relative basis, the peer group trades at an average of 15x-20x now, largely due to re-rating for Hardware companies amid secular Agentic AI trend. Our 18x multiple reflects Dell is capitalizing an expanding AI infrastructure build-up, with improved margin profile and earnings visibility.
Figure 4: Dell's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) AI demand slows down; 2) Components supply constraint; 3) Competition.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | USD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Current assets | 36,229 | 57,602 | 100,530 | 132,698 | 151,097 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 3,633 | 11,528 | 18,316 | 23,759 | 28,654 |
| Inventory | 6,716 | 10,437 | 19,235 | 26,217 | 29,655 |
| Accounts Receivable | 10,298 | 17,585 | 31,077 | 40,819 | 45,787 |
| Other current assets | 15,582 | 18,052 | 31,903 | 41,903 | 47,002 |
| Non-current assets | 43,517 | 43,684 | 44,014 | 44,627 | 44,840 |
| Long-term equity investment | 7,423 | 7,552 | 7,552 | 7,552 | 7,552 |
| Fixed assets | 6,336 | 6,676 | 7,006 | 7,619 | 7,832 |
| Other long-term assets | 29,758 | 29,456 | 29,456 | 29,456 | 29,456 |
| Total assets | 79,746 | 101,286 | 144,544 | 177,325 | 195,938 |
| Current liabilities | 46,527 | 63,269 | 106,302 | 139,410 | 155,739 |
| Accounts Payable | 20,832 | 33,630 | 61,978 | 84,476 | 95,553 |
| Short-term borrowings | 5,204 | 7,990 | 6,065 | 4,682 | 3,819 |
| Other current liabilities | 20,491 | 21,649 | 38,259 | 50,252 | 56,368 |
| Non-current liabilities | 34,606 | 40,487 | 34,821 | 30,753 | 28,211 |
| Long-term Debt | 19,363 | 23,513 | 17,847 | 13,779 | 11,237 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 15,243 | 16,974 | 16,974 | 16,974 | 16,974 |
| Total liabilities | 81,133 | 103,756 | 141,123 | 170,163 | 183,951 |
| Total Equity | -1,387 | -2,470 | 3,421 | 7,162 | 11,987 |
| Share Capital | 9,119 | 9,457 | 9,457 | 9,457 | 9,457 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | -8,502 | -14,533 | -14,533 | -14,533 | -14,533 |
| Retained earnings | -2,099 | 2,606 | 8,497 | 12,238 | 17,063 |
| Minority interests | 95 | - | - | - | - |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 79,746 | 101,286 | 144,544 | 177,325 | 195,938 |
| Income Statement | USD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Revenue | 95,567 | 113,538 | 200,652 | 263,549 | 295,622 |
| Cost of sales | 73,757 | 90,379 | 166,563 | 227,025 | 256,793 |
| Gross profit | 21,810 | 23,159 | 34,088 | 36,524 | 38,829 |
| Operating Expense | 13,281 | 13,168 | 15,197 | 16,400 | 17,000 |
| Operating profit | 8,529 | 9,991 | 18,891 | 20,124 | 21,829 |
| Interest Income | - | - | - | - | - |
| Interest Expense | 1,376 | 1,398 | 1,564 | 1,564 | 1,564 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | - | - | 147 | 200 | - |
| Pre-tax profit | 7,153 | 8,593 | 17,474 | 18,760 | 20,265 |
| Income tax | 1,290 | 1,547 | 3,146 | 3,377 | 3,648 |
| Profit for the year | 5,863 | 7,046 | 14,328 | 15,383 | 16,617 |
| Minority interest | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 5,863 | 7,046 | 14,328 | 15,383 | 16,617 |
| EPS ($) | 8.1 | 10.3 | 22.0 | 23.8 | 25.9 |
| Cash Flow Statement | USD mn | USD mn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Operating cash flow | 4,521 | 11,185 | 25,817 | 26,536 | 25,091 |
| Net profit (GAAP) | 5,863 | 7,046 | 14,328 | 15,383 | 16,617 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 3,123 | 3,029 | 2,670 | 3,387 | 4,787 |
| Change in working capital | - | - | 8,818 | 7,767 | 3,688 |
| Others | -4,465 | 1,110 | - | - | - |
| Investing cash flow | -2,215 | -2,055 | -3,000 | -4,000 | -5,000 |
| Capex | -3,027 | -3,369 | -3,000 | -4,000 | -5,000 |
| Change in investment | -230 | -129 | - | - | - |
| Others | 1,042 | 1,443 | - | - | - |
| Free cash flow | 2,306 | 9,130 | 22,817 | 22,536 | 20,091 |
| Financing cash flow | -5,815 | -1,464 | -16,029 | -17,092 | -15,197 |
| Change in Capital | -5,118 | -8,129 | -8,437 | -11,642 | -11,792 |
| Net Change in Debt | -1,427 | 6,936 | -7,592 | -5,451 | -3,405 |
| Others | 730 | -271 | - | - | - |
| Exchange influence | -179 | 221 | - | - | - |
| Net increase in cash | -3,509 | 7,666 | 6,788 | 5,444 | 4,894 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||
| Revenue growth | 8.1 | 18.8 | 76.7 | 31.3 | 12.2 |
| Operating profit growth | 8.3 | 17.1 | 89.1 | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| Net profit growth | 8.1 | 20.2 | 103.4 | 7.4 | 8.0 |
| Profitability (%) | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 22.8 | 20.4 | 17.0 | 13.9 | 13.1 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 8.9 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 7.4 |
| Net profit margin | 6.1 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Key Ratio (%) | |||||
| ROA | 7.2 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 8.9 |
| ROE | -395.6 | -285.3 | 418.8 | 214.8 | 138.6 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | -1,771 | -1,275 | 699 | 258 | 126 |
| Interest Coverage | 6.2 | 7.1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| Current Ratio | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Net debt/equity | -1,509 | -809 | 163.6 | Net cash | Net cash |
Rating definitions
Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
Address
27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Telephone
(852) 37191111
evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk