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報告_廣發香港_比亞迪電子0285_20260831

更新 2026-09-01

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_廣發香港_比亞迪電子0285_20260831_001.png 57KB 真資料圖 比亞迪電子 12 個月 forward P/E 帶狀走勢圖,Jul-17 至 Jul-26,PER 線疊加 17x 平均線;可見 PER 在 2021 年高點約 40x 後回落,近期落於平均線 17x 附近震盪

原始內容

BYD Electronics (00285 HK)

Likely Trough Behind, but Recovery Needs a Show-me

Maintain Hold with TP of HK$30: On Aug 28, BYDE reported 1H26 results with a margin miss, due to unfavorable mix and FX impact. However, management believes the trough is behind, with AI revenue set to ramp, driving growth and margin improvement. Cold plate shipments for Vera Rubin remain on track, supported by new project wins from a top -3 Chinese CSP. That said, we think investors will seek greater visibility into margin recovery and content value expansion for components, amid ongoing FX/memory headwinds. By factoring results, guidance, and lower GM/OPEX assumptions, we revise our earnings estimate by -18%/+6% for 2026E/2027E. Our TP of HK$30 is based on 15x 2027E P/E.

Soft 1H26 Results: BYDE 1H26 revenue came in at RMB 82.2bn, +2% YoY, below consensus and our estimates. GM was at 4.9%, -2pts YoY, dragged by unfavorable FX and inferior mix due to lower content on iPhone. Accordingly, net income was down by 75% YoY to RMB 426mn, despite normalized OPEX. Segment-wise, Assembly revenue of RMB55.95bn, Component of RMB11.9bn, -24% YoY, and AI infrastructure of RMB752mn. Of note, NEV revenue rose 6% YoY to RMB13.6bn, a bright spot despite 15% YoY decline in BYD's EV shipments during 1H26, driven by ASP improvements on higher penetration rate of intelligent suspension systems/fast-charging products.

VR200 CP on track; HVDC/Connectivity still early : BYDE is on track to ship cold plate (via Lead Wealth) for VR200 starting in Sep with a ramp in 4Q26, and accelerate further in 2027 where we anticipate multiple -fold growth YoY. To support this ramp, the company is planning to expand capacity from its current 40,000 m² to 200,000 m² within six months. Longer -term, BYDE is positioning for the meaningful contribution from HVDC/SST and connectivity products in 2028 -2029, though these remain in early stages. Currently, we forecast RMB3.8bn/12bn for AI computing infrastructure sales in 2026E/2027E.

Risks: 1) Smartphone sales deterioration; 2) AI share lower than expected; 3) Competition.

Profit forecast

2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue (m) 177,306 179,477 187,324 206,981 225,479
Revenue YoY ( % ) 36.4 1.2 4.4 10.5 8.9
Net profit (m) 4,266 3,515 2,288 3,856 5,045
Net profit YoY ( % ) 5.5 -17.6 -34.9 68.5 30.8
EPS (RMB) 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.7 2.2
P/E 11.2 13.5 20.8 12.3 9.4
ROE ( % ) 13.8 10.5 6.5 10.2 12.0

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

数据来源:公司财务报表,广发证券发展研究中心

Maintain Target price

Hold

HK$ 30

Evan Lee

SFC CE No. BVI629 evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

Jeff Pu, CFA

SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Earnings Forecast

1H26 Results soft

For 1H26, revenue was RMB82.2bn, +2% YoY, below consensus and our estimates. GM was 4.9%, -2ppts YoY, a miss due to FX headwinds and unfavorable mix. Accordingly, net income of RMB426mn, -75% YoY, despite better OPEX control. Segment wise, Assembly revenue reached RMB55.95bn, Component revenue of RMB11.9bn, -24% YoY, AI infrastructure revenue of RMB752mn, and auto business revenue of RMB13.6bn, +6% YoY, which was the silver lining of the results.

For 2026, we forecast revenue of RMB187bn, +4% YoY, mainly driven by AI infrastructure revenue ramp in 2H26, which we expect to reach RMB3.8bn.

Figure 1: BYDE's 1H26 results

RMBm 1H26 2H25 HoH 1H25 YoY GFHK Diff Consensus Diff
Net sales 82,234 98,872 -17% 80,606 2% 78,184 5% 79,838 3%
Gross profit 4,037 5,214 -23% 5,546 -27% 4,528 -11% 5,908 -32%
OPEX 3,465 3,831 -10% 4,161 -17% 3,950 -12% 4,437 -22%
Op. profit 572 1,382 -59% 1,385 -59% 578 -1% 1,471 -61%
Pre-tax Income 481 2,028 -76% 1,896 -75% 838 -43% 2,047 -77%
Net Income 426 1,788 -76% 1,730 -75% 755 -44% 1,801 -76%
EPS (RMB) 0.19 0.80 -76% 0.77 -75% 0.34 -44% 0.80 -76%
ppt. ppt. ppt. ppt.
GM 4.9% 5.3% (0.4) 6.9% (2.0) 5.8% (0.9) 7.4% (2.5)
OPM 0.7% 1.4% (0.7) 1.7% (1.0) 0.7% (0.0) 1.8% (1.1)
Pre-tax margin 0.6% 2.1% (1.5) 2.4% (1.8) 1.1% (0.5) 2.6% (2.0)
Net Margin 0.5% 1.8% (1.3) 2.1% (1.6) 1.0% (0.4) 2.3% (1.7)

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Earnings revision

By factoring results, guidance, lower GM & OPEX, we revise our 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by -18%/+6%.

Figure 2: Earnings revision

RMBm 2025 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E Change (%) Change (%)
RMBm 2025 Old New Old New 2026E 2027E
Net sales 179,477 174,897 187,324 207,276 206,981 7% 0%
Gross profit 10,757 10,738 9,814 13,036 12,484 -9% -4%
Operating profit 2,764 2,588 2,349 3,736 3,634 -9% -3%
Pre-tax Income 3,921 3,110 2,549 4,084 4,333 -18% 6%
Net profit 3,515 2,799 2,288 3,634 3,856 -18% 6%
EPS (RMB) 1.56 1.25 1.02 1.62 1.72 -18% 6%
Key ratios (%)
Gross margin 6.0% 6.1% 5.2% 6.3% 6.0%
Operating margin 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8%
Pre-tax margin 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.1%
Net profit margin 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9%

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 3: BYDE's P&L forecast

(RMB m) 2025 1H26 2H26E 2026E 1H27E 2H27E 2027E
Sales 179,477 82,234 105,090 187,324 94,225 112,756 206,981
COGS 168,721 78,198 99,313 177,510 88,738 105,759 194,497
Gross profit 10,757 4,037 5,777 9,814 5,488 6,997 12,484
Opex 7,993 3,465 4,000 7,465 4,200 4,650 8,850
Operating profit 2,764 572 1,777 2,349 1,288 2,347 3,634
Non-operating profit 1,157 -91 291 201 349 349 698
Pre-tax profit 3,921 481 2,068 2,549 1,637 2,696 4,333
Income tax 407 55 207 261 180 297 477
Net Income 3,515 426 1,862 2,288 1,457 2,399 3,856
EPS(RMB) 1.6 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.7
Outstanding shares 2,248 2,246 2,246 2,246 2,246 2,246 2,246
Margin analysis
Gross margin 6.0% 4.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.8% 6.2% 6.0%
Operating margin 1.5% 0.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 1.8%
Pre-tax margin 2.2% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 2.1%
Effective tax rate 10.4% 11.3% 10.0% 10.3% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
Growth (YoY%)
Sales 1% 2% 6% 4% 15% 7% 10%
Operating profit -30% -59% 29% -15% 125% 32% 55%
Net income -18% -75% 4% -35% 242% 29% 69%
EPS -17% -75% 4% -35% 242% 29% 69%
Product mix (%)
Assembly 64% 68% 65% 66% 63% 61% 62%
Components 16% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
NEV 15% 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18%
AI Computing 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 6% 6%

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Valuation and Recommendation

Hold with TP of HK$30

We rate BYDE (00285 HK) Hold and set our TP at HK$30, which is based on 15x our 2027E EPS estimate. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focus on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to downstream firms.

BYDE's P/E traded at an average of 17x, or in a range of 12x to 22x since 2021 when the company transited from the mask business to consumer and automotive. We derive our target price based on 15x P/E (and convert it to HKD), which is below its average, reflecting the broad-based consumer electronics weakness and near-term margin headwinds. We believe investor may wait for more visibility into its improving sales/margin trajectory.

Figure 4: BYDE's 12-month forward P/E

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

1) Smartphone sales deterioration; 2) AI share lower than expected; 3) Competition.

Balance Sheet [Table_FinanceDetail] [Table_FinanceDetail] [Table_FinanceDetail] [Table_FinanceDetail] RMB mn
2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Current assets 60,416 54,678 56,875 60,824 67,651
Cash and cash equivalents 7,052 13,552 13,797 13,405 16,078
Inventory 18,089 18,482 19,445 21,306 23,125
Accounts Receivable 32,777 14,999 15,655 17,298 18,843
Other current assets 2,497 7,645 7,979 8,816 9,604
Non-current assets 29,932 28,934 36,006 32,203 35,973
Long-term equity investment - - - - -
Fixed assets 17,113 17,798 18,006 18,203 17,973
Other long-term assets 12,819 11,136 18,000 14,000 18,000
Total assets 90,347 83,612 92,881 93,027 103,623
Current liabilities 50,823 46,628 53,115 50,292 55,676
Accounts Payable 35,331 29,476 34,510 35,896 40,002
Short-term borrowings 6,505 7,184 8,201 2,901 3,152
Other current liabilities 8,987 9,968 10,403 11,495 12,522
Non-current liabilities 7,122 2,543 3,494 3,378 3,545
Long-term Debt 5,595 1,099 2,050 1,934 2,101
Other non-current liabilities 1,528 1,444 1,444 1,444 1,444
Total liabilities 57,946 49,170 56,608 53,669 59,221
Total Equity 32,402 34,442 36,272 39,357 44,402
Share Capital 4,052 4,052 4,052 4,052 4,052
Additional Paid-in Capital - - - - -
Retained earnings 28,349 30,390 32,220 35,305 40,350
Minority interests - - - - -
Total Liabilities & Equity 90,347 83,612 92,881 93,027 103,623
Income Statement RMB mn
2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 177,306 179,477 187,324 206,981 225,479
Cost of sales 165,004 168,721 177,510 194,497 211,109
Gross profit 12,301 10,757 9,814 12,484 14,370
Operating Expense 8,374 7,993 7,465 8,850 9,500
Operating profit 3,927 2,764 2,349 3,634 4,870
Interest Income - - - - -
Interest Expense 521 370 337 302 202
Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) 1,334 1,528 537 1,000 1,000
Pre-tax profit 4,740 3,921 2,549 4,333 5,669
Income tax 475 407 261 477 624
Profit for the year 4,266 3,515 2,288 3,856 5,045
Minority interest - - - - -
Net profit to ord. equity 4,266 3,515 2,288 3,856 5,045
EPS (RMB) 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.7 2.2
Cash Flow Statement Statement Statement Statement RMB mn
2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Operating cash flow 8,995 4,951 16,470 11,194 7,508
Profit for the year 4,041 4,266 3,515 2,799 3,634
Depreciation & amortization 2,791 5,808 5,593 5,133 5,521
Change in working capital 2,163 -5,122 7,363 3,262 -1,648
Others - - - - -
Investing cash flow -18,897 -3,128 -4,595 -5,341 -5,341
Capex -9,556 -2,279 -5,347 -4,410 -4,410
Change in investment - - - - -
Others -9,341 -849 752 -930 -930
Free cash flow -9,901 1,823 11,875 5,853 2,167
Financing cash flow 14,184 -5,318 -5,375 -574 -4,641
Change in Capital -346 -1,194 -1,474 -560 -727
Net Change in Debt 14,530 -4,123 -3,901 -14 -3,914
Others - - - - -
Exchange influence - - - - -
Net increase in cash 4,282 -3,494 6,500 5,279 -2,474
Key Financial Ratios
Growth (%)
Revenue growth 36.4 1.2 4.4 10.5 8.9
Operating profit growth 6.0 -29.6 -15.0 54.7 34.0
Net profit growth 5.5 -17.6 -34.9 68.5 30.8
Profitability (%)
Gross profit margin 6.9 6.0 5.2 6.0 6.4
Operating Profit Margin 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.8 2.2
Net profit margin 2.4 2.0 1.2 1.9 2.2
Key Ratio (%)
ROA 4.8 4.0 2.6 4.1 5.1
ROE 13.8 10.5 6.5 10.2 12.0
Stability
Gross debt/equity 37.3 24.0 28.3 12.3 11.8
Interest Coverage 10.1 11.6 8.6 15.4 29.1
Current Ratio 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2
Quick Ratio 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8
Net debt/equity 15.6 Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash

Rating definitions

Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Company ratings Buy

Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %

Hold

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %

Underperform

Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %

Sector ratings Positive

Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Neutral

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious

Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Hong Kong Company

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

Address

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email

evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

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