PDF 原檔:報告_廣發香港_比亞迪電子0285_20260831_original.pdf
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57KB | 真資料圖 | 比亞迪電子 12 個月 forward P/E 帶狀走勢圖,Jul-17 至 Jul-26,PER 線疊加 17x 平均線;可見 PER 在 2021 年高點約 40x 後回落,近期落於平均線 17x 附近震盪 |
原始內容
BYD Electronics (00285 HK)
Likely Trough Behind, but Recovery Needs a Show-me
Maintain Hold with TP of HK$30: On Aug 28, BYDE reported 1H26 results with a margin miss, due to unfavorable mix and FX impact. However, management believes the trough is behind, with AI revenue set to ramp, driving growth and margin improvement. Cold plate shipments for Vera Rubin remain on track, supported by new project wins from a top -3 Chinese CSP. That said, we think investors will seek greater visibility into margin recovery and content value expansion for components, amid ongoing FX/memory headwinds. By factoring results, guidance, and lower GM/OPEX assumptions, we revise our earnings estimate by -18%/+6% for 2026E/2027E. Our TP of HK$30 is based on 15x 2027E P/E.
Soft 1H26 Results: BYDE 1H26 revenue came in at RMB 82.2bn, +2% YoY, below consensus and our estimates. GM was at 4.9%, -2pts YoY, dragged by unfavorable FX and inferior mix due to lower content on iPhone. Accordingly, net income was down by 75% YoY to RMB 426mn, despite normalized OPEX. Segment-wise, Assembly revenue of RMB55.95bn, Component of RMB11.9bn, -24% YoY, and AI infrastructure of RMB752mn. Of note, NEV revenue rose 6% YoY to RMB13.6bn, a bright spot despite 15% YoY decline in BYD's EV shipments during 1H26, driven by ASP improvements on higher penetration rate of intelligent suspension systems/fast-charging products.
VR200 CP on track; HVDC/Connectivity still early : BYDE is on track to ship cold plate (via Lead Wealth) for VR200 starting in Sep with a ramp in 4Q26, and accelerate further in 2027 where we anticipate multiple -fold growth YoY. To support this ramp, the company is planning to expand capacity from its current 40,000 m² to 200,000 m² within six months. Longer -term, BYDE is positioning for the meaningful contribution from HVDC/SST and connectivity products in 2028 -2029, though these remain in early stages. Currently, we forecast RMB3.8bn/12bn for AI computing infrastructure sales in 2026E/2027E.
Risks: 1) Smartphone sales deterioration; 2) AI share lower than expected; 3) Competition.
Profit forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 177,306 | 179,477 | 187,324 | 206,981 | 225,479 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 36.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 10.5 | 8.9 |
| Net profit (m) | 4,266 | 3,515 | 2,288 | 3,856 | 5,045 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | 5.5 | -17.6 | -34.9 | 68.5 | 30.8 |
| EPS (RMB) | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| P/E | 11.2 | 13.5 | 20.8 | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| ROE ( % ) | 13.8 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 12.0 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源:公司财务报表,广发证券发展研究中心
Maintain Target price
Hold
HK$ 30
Evan Lee
SFC CE No. BVI629 evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
Jeff Pu, CFA
SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
1H26 Results soft
For 1H26, revenue was RMB82.2bn, +2% YoY, below consensus and our estimates. GM was 4.9%, -2ppts YoY, a miss due to FX headwinds and unfavorable mix. Accordingly, net income of RMB426mn, -75% YoY, despite better OPEX control. Segment wise, Assembly revenue reached RMB55.95bn, Component revenue of RMB11.9bn, -24% YoY, AI infrastructure revenue of RMB752mn, and auto business revenue of RMB13.6bn, +6% YoY, which was the silver lining of the results.
For 2026, we forecast revenue of RMB187bn, +4% YoY, mainly driven by AI infrastructure revenue ramp in 2H26, which we expect to reach RMB3.8bn.
Figure 1: BYDE's 1H26 results
| RMBm | 1H26 | 2H25 | HoH | 1H25 | YoY | GFHK | Diff | Consensus | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 82,234 | 98,872 | -17% | 80,606 | 2% | 78,184 | 5% | 79,838 | 3% |
| Gross profit | 4,037 | 5,214 | -23% | 5,546 | -27% | 4,528 | -11% | 5,908 | -32% |
| OPEX | 3,465 | 3,831 | -10% | 4,161 | -17% | 3,950 | -12% | 4,437 | -22% |
| Op. profit | 572 | 1,382 | -59% | 1,385 | -59% | 578 | -1% | 1,471 | -61% |
| Pre-tax Income | 481 | 2,028 | -76% | 1,896 | -75% | 838 | -43% | 2,047 | -77% |
| Net Income | 426 | 1,788 | -76% | 1,730 | -75% | 755 | -44% | 1,801 | -76% |
| EPS (RMB) | 0.19 | 0.80 | -76% | 0.77 | -75% | 0.34 | -44% | 0.80 | -76% |
| ppt. | ppt. | ppt. | ppt. | ||||||
| GM | 4.9% | 5.3% | (0.4) | 6.9% | (2.0) | 5.8% | (0.9) | 7.4% | (2.5) |
| OPM | 0.7% | 1.4% | (0.7) | 1.7% | (1.0) | 0.7% | (0.0) | 1.8% | (1.1) |
| Pre-tax margin | 0.6% | 2.1% | (1.5) | 2.4% | (1.8) | 1.1% | (0.5) | 2.6% | (2.0) |
| Net Margin | 0.5% | 1.8% | (1.3) | 2.1% | (1.6) | 1.0% | (0.4) | 2.3% | (1.7) |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings revision
By factoring results, guidance, lower GM & OPEX, we revise our 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by -18%/+6%.
Figure 2: Earnings revision
| RMBm | 2025 | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMBm | 2025 | Old | New | Old | New | 2026E | 2027E |
| Net sales | 179,477 | 174,897 | 187,324 | 207,276 | 206,981 | 7% | 0% |
| Gross profit | 10,757 | 10,738 | 9,814 | 13,036 | 12,484 | -9% | -4% |
| Operating profit | 2,764 | 2,588 | 2,349 | 3,736 | 3,634 | -9% | -3% |
| Pre-tax Income | 3,921 | 3,110 | 2,549 | 4,084 | 4,333 | -18% | 6% |
| Net profit | 3,515 | 2,799 | 2,288 | 3,634 | 3,856 | -18% | 6% |
| EPS (RMB) | 1.56 | 1.25 | 1.02 | 1.62 | 1.72 | -18% | 6% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | ||
| Operating margin | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | ||
| Net profit margin | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 3: BYDE's P&L forecast
| (RMB m) | 2025 | 1H26 | 2H26E | 2026E | 1H27E | 2H27E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 179,477 | 82,234 | 105,090 | 187,324 | 94,225 | 112,756 | 206,981 |
| COGS | 168,721 | 78,198 | 99,313 | 177,510 | 88,738 | 105,759 | 194,497 |
| Gross profit | 10,757 | 4,037 | 5,777 | 9,814 | 5,488 | 6,997 | 12,484 |
| Opex | 7,993 | 3,465 | 4,000 | 7,465 | 4,200 | 4,650 | 8,850 |
| Operating profit | 2,764 | 572 | 1,777 | 2,349 | 1,288 | 2,347 | 3,634 |
| Non-operating profit | 1,157 | -91 | 291 | 201 | 349 | 349 | 698 |
| Pre-tax profit | 3,921 | 481 | 2,068 | 2,549 | 1,637 | 2,696 | 4,333 |
| Income tax | 407 | 55 | 207 | 261 | 180 | 297 | 477 |
| Net Income | 3,515 | 426 | 1,862 | 2,288 | 1,457 | 2,399 | 3,856 |
| EPS(RMB) | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Outstanding shares | 2,248 | 2,246 | 2,246 | 2,246 | 2,246 | 2,246 | 2,246 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| Operating margin | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Pre-tax margin | 2.2% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Effective tax rate | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||
| Sales | 1% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 10% |
| Operating profit | -30% | -59% | 29% | -15% | 125% | 32% | 55% |
| Net income | -18% | -75% | 4% | -35% | 242% | 29% | 69% |
| EPS | -17% | -75% | 4% | -35% | 242% | 29% | 69% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||
| Assembly | 64% | 68% | 65% | 66% | 63% | 61% | 62% |
| Components | 16% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| NEV | 15% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 18% |
| AI Computing | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 6% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Hold with TP of HK$30
We rate BYDE (00285 HK) Hold and set our TP at HK$30, which is based on 15x our 2027E EPS estimate. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focus on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to downstream firms.
BYDE's P/E traded at an average of 17x, or in a range of 12x to 22x since 2021 when the company transited from the mask business to consumer and automotive. We derive our target price based on 15x P/E (and convert it to HKD), which is below its average, reflecting the broad-based consumer electronics weakness and near-term margin headwinds. We believe investor may wait for more visibility into its improving sales/margin trajectory.
Figure 4: BYDE's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) Smartphone sales deterioration; 2) AI share lower than expected; 3) Competition.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | RMB mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Current assets | 60,416 | 54,678 | 56,875 | 60,824 | 67,651 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 7,052 | 13,552 | 13,797 | 13,405 | 16,078 |
| Inventory | 18,089 | 18,482 | 19,445 | 21,306 | 23,125 |
| Accounts Receivable | 32,777 | 14,999 | 15,655 | 17,298 | 18,843 |
| Other current assets | 2,497 | 7,645 | 7,979 | 8,816 | 9,604 |
| Non-current assets | 29,932 | 28,934 | 36,006 | 32,203 | 35,973 |
| Long-term equity investment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fixed assets | 17,113 | 17,798 | 18,006 | 18,203 | 17,973 |
| Other long-term assets | 12,819 | 11,136 | 18,000 | 14,000 | 18,000 |
| Total assets | 90,347 | 83,612 | 92,881 | 93,027 | 103,623 |
| Current liabilities | 50,823 | 46,628 | 53,115 | 50,292 | 55,676 |
| Accounts Payable | 35,331 | 29,476 | 34,510 | 35,896 | 40,002 |
| Short-term borrowings | 6,505 | 7,184 | 8,201 | 2,901 | 3,152 |
| Other current liabilities | 8,987 | 9,968 | 10,403 | 11,495 | 12,522 |
| Non-current liabilities | 7,122 | 2,543 | 3,494 | 3,378 | 3,545 |
| Long-term Debt | 5,595 | 1,099 | 2,050 | 1,934 | 2,101 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 1,528 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 |
| Total liabilities | 57,946 | 49,170 | 56,608 | 53,669 | 59,221 |
| Total Equity | 32,402 | 34,442 | 36,272 | 39,357 | 44,402 |
| Share Capital | 4,052 | 4,052 | 4,052 | 4,052 | 4,052 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | - | - | - | - | - |
| Retained earnings | 28,349 | 30,390 | 32,220 | 35,305 | 40,350 |
| Minority interests | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 90,347 | 83,612 | 92,881 | 93,027 | 103,623 |
| Income Statement | RMB mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Revenue | 177,306 | 179,477 | 187,324 | 206,981 | 225,479 |
| Cost of sales | 165,004 | 168,721 | 177,510 | 194,497 | 211,109 |
| Gross profit | 12,301 | 10,757 | 9,814 | 12,484 | 14,370 |
| Operating Expense | 8,374 | 7,993 | 7,465 | 8,850 | 9,500 |
| Operating profit | 3,927 | 2,764 | 2,349 | 3,634 | 4,870 |
| Interest Income | - | - | - | - | - |
| Interest Expense | 521 | 370 | 337 | 302 | 202 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | 1,334 | 1,528 | 537 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Pre-tax profit | 4,740 | 3,921 | 2,549 | 4,333 | 5,669 |
| Income tax | 475 | 407 | 261 | 477 | 624 |
| Profit for the year | 4,266 | 3,515 | 2,288 | 3,856 | 5,045 |
| Minority interest | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 4,266 | 3,515 | 2,288 | 3,856 | 5,045 |
| EPS (RMB) | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Cash Flow | Statement | Statement | Statement | Statement | RMB mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Operating cash flow | 8,995 | 4,951 | 16,470 | 11,194 | 7,508 |
| Profit for the year | 4,041 | 4,266 | 3,515 | 2,799 | 3,634 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 2,791 | 5,808 | 5,593 | 5,133 | 5,521 |
| Change in working capital | 2,163 | -5,122 | 7,363 | 3,262 | -1,648 |
| Others | - | - | - | - | - |
| Investing cash flow | -18,897 | -3,128 | -4,595 | -5,341 | -5,341 |
| Capex | -9,556 | -2,279 | -5,347 | -4,410 | -4,410 |
| Change in investment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Others | -9,341 | -849 | 752 | -930 | -930 |
| Free cash flow | -9,901 | 1,823 | 11,875 | 5,853 | 2,167 |
| Financing cash flow | 14,184 | -5,318 | -5,375 | -574 | -4,641 |
| Change in Capital | -346 | -1,194 | -1,474 | -560 | -727 |
| Net Change in Debt | 14,530 | -4,123 | -3,901 | -14 | -3,914 |
| Others | - | - | - | - | - |
| Exchange influence | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net increase in cash | 4,282 | -3,494 | 6,500 | 5,279 | -2,474 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||
| Revenue growth | 36.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 10.5 | 8.9 |
| Operating profit growth | 6.0 | -29.6 | -15.0 | 54.7 | 34.0 |
| Net profit growth | 5.5 | -17.6 | -34.9 | 68.5 | 30.8 |
| Profitability (%) | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 6.9 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Net profit margin | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Key Ratio (%) | |||||
| ROA | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| ROE | 13.8 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 37.3 | 24.0 | 28.3 | 12.3 | 11.8 |
| Interest Coverage | 10.1 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 15.4 | 29.1 |
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Net debt/equity | 15.6 | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash | Net cash |
Rating definitions
Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
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evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
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