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報告_廣發香港_Apple_F4Q26_20261103

更新 2026-11-03
#來源/券商報告#公司/Apple

PDF 原檔：報告_廣發香港_Apple_F4Q26_20261103_original.pdf

原始內容

[Table_Title]

Apple (AAPL US)

Muted iPhone 18 Pro Cycle and Rising Memory Costs

[Table_Summary] Lower TP to $334, Hold rating: Driven by investors being away from AI themes, Apple share price outperformed Nasdaq by 7.2% in the past one month. However, we continue to expect muted cycle of iPhone 18 P/PM with constrained volume of iPhone Duo. Additionally, memory cost hike will last longer than expected, driven by our view of tight DRAM/NAND supply, and we expect cost hikes throughout CY2027. For hardware, we still expect the iPhone 20 (2H27) to be a strong product cycle, thanks to new design of display, followed by Apple's early move to TSMC's A14 in 2H28 (suggesting only 2-years at 2nm). Additionally, Apple Intelligence remains the key to watch. Yet, the share price trades at 35x FY27E P/E, suggesting the stock isn't cheap. By factoring in results, guidance and lower shipments/margins, we revise FY27E EPS by -10% and revise TP from $369 to $334, still based on 35x FY27E.

Dec-Q margin guidance below expectations: Apple delivered solid Sept-Q results, with revenue of $114.5bn (+12% YoY) and diluted EPS of $2.1 (+14% YoY), both ahead of consensus. For Dec-Q, mgmt. guided to total revenue growth of 7-10% YoY (vs. consensus of +6.5%), Services growth of 8-9%, and gross margin of 45-46%. The revenue outlook is constructive to Street expectations, though the margin guidance and Services deceleration were disappointing, reflecting cost hikes and mix headwinds.

The iPhone product cycle mixed, with challenges in FY2027: Mgmt sees a strong start of iPhone Duo but remains supply constrained. Hence, we continue to expect the EMS build plan of 6.5m of iPhone Duo by end-2026 with limited upside, while the mainstream iPhone 18 P/PM to be 74.5m. As said in our earlier report of iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max Lukewarm on Sept 15, we believe the muted demand will weigh on CY1H27 EMS builds. Margin wise, despite pricing actions taken earlier, margin will likely be under pressure, as the CEO Ternus characterized current memory pricing as 'unprecedented,' with higher costs in December and beyond.

Apple positioning the rebuilt Siri AI as a core differentiator: The CEO Ternus emphasized that the new Siri is deeply integrated and privacy-preserving and is fielding ~2.5bn requests per day. From a financial perspective, CFO Parekh noted that these Siri AI costs are embedded in the December margin outlook, suggesting near-term gross-margin compression alongside the memory cost up-cycle.

Risks: 1) weak demand, 2) competition, 3) product delays, 4) geo-tension.

Profit forecast

[Table_Finance] US$ m FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 FY2027E FY2028E
Revenue 391,035 416,161 478,834 524,066 577,780
Revenue YoY (%) 2.0 6.4 15.1 9.4 10.2
Net Profit 93,736 112,010 132,175 137,556 157,692
Net Profit YoY (%) -3.4 19.5 18.0 4.1 14.6
EPS 6.1 7.5 9.0 9.5 11.0
P/E 55.6 45.3 37.7 35.4 30.8
ROE (%) 157.4 171.4 148.2 118.7 111.8

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.

数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心

[Table_Rank]

Maintained Target price Hold US$334

[Table_Author]

Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE no: BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Henry Huang SFC CE no: BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk

Earnings Forecast

Solid September Quarter Results

Apple delivered a solid September-quarter, with revenue of $114.5bn (+12% YoY) and diluted EPS of $2.10 (+14% YoY), both ahead of consensus, reaching a record fiscal year of $479bn in revenue. Gross margin came in at 47.9%, aided by approximately one percentage point of tariff refund benefits (and a $0.05 EPS tailwind).

iPhone revenue reached a September-quarter record of $57.6bn (+17.5% YoY) likely driven by higher ASPs, Mac rose a strong 24% to $10.8bn likely on edge-AI, Services set at $31.6bn (+9.8% YoY) which was below expectations, while iPad declined 10% to $6.2bn and Wearables fell 8% to $8.3bn. The company returned $28bn to shareholders.

December Quarter Guidance Slightly Ahead in Revenue but Shy in Margin

For the December quarter, mgmt. guided to total revenue growth of 7-10% YoY (vs. consensus of +6.5%), Services growth of 8-9%, and gross margin of 45-46%. Operating expenses are expected at $20.4-20.8bn, OI&E around $300 million, and the tax rate near 17%. The revenue outlook is constructive relative to prior Street expectations, though the margin range and Services deceleration reflect known cost and mix headwinds.

Figure 1: 4Q FY2026 Results Review

USD mn F4Q26 F3Q26 QoQ F4Q25 YoY GFHK Diff Cons. Diff
Revenue 114,477 109,417 4.6% 102,466 11.7% 113,213 1.1% 113,463 0.9%
Gross profit 54,820 54,770 0.1% 48,341 13.4% 54,250 1.1% 53,927 1.7%
OPEX 19,189 19,075 0.6% 15,914 20.6% 19,200 -0.1% 19,099 0.5%
Operating profit 35,631 35,695 -0.2% 32,427 9.9% 35,050 1.7% 34,828 2.3%
Pre-tax profit 36,135 36,267 -0.4% 32,804 10.2% 35,300 2.4% 35,030 3.2%
Net profit 30,711 29,789 3.1% 27,466 11.8% 29,299 4.8% 29,213 5.1%
EPS (US$) 2.11 2.01 5.0% 1.85 14.1% 2.01 5.0% 2.00 5.5%
ppt ppt ppt ppt
Gross Margin 47.9% 50.1% -2.2 47.2% 0.7 47.9% 0.0 47.5% 0.4
Operating Margin 31.1% 32.6% -1.5 31.6% -0.5 31.0% 0.1 30.7% 0.4
Pretax margin 31.6% 33.1% -1.5 32.0% -0.4 31.2% 0.4 30.9% 0.7
Net margin 26.8% 27.2% -0.4 26.8% 0.0 25.9% 0.9 25.7% 1.1

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Earnings revision

By factoring in results, guidance and lower shipments/margins, we revise FY27E EPS by -10%

Figure 2: Earnings revision

USD m FY25 FY26 - Old FY26 - New FY27E - Old FY27E - New Change (%) - FY26E Change (%) - FY27E
Net sales 416,161 477,570 478,834 545,303 524,066 0% -4%
Gross profit 195,201 233,032 233,602 263,905 246,310 0% -7%
Operating profit 133,050 157,482 158,063 183,405 165,610 0% -10%
Pre-tax Income 132,729 158,402 159,237 183,525 165,730 1% -10%
Net profit 112,010 130,763 132,175 152,325 137,556 1% -10%
EPS ($) 7.46 8.90 8.97 10.54 9.54 1% -10%
Key ratios
Gross margin 46.9% 48.8% 48.8% 48.4% 47.0%
Operating margin 32.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.6% 31.6%
Pre-tax margin 31.9% 33.2% 33.3% 33.7% 31.6%
Net profit margin 26.9% 27.4% 27.6% 27.9% 26.2%

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 3: Apple's P&L forecast

(USD m) FY25 F1Q26 F2Q26 F3Q26 F4Q26 FY26 F1Q27E F2Q27E F3Q27E F4Q27E FY27E
Sales 416,161 143,756 111,184 109,417 114,477 478,834 157,246 121,637 119,030 126,153 524,066
COGS 220,960 74,525 56,403 54,647 59,657 245,232 84,907 64,288 62,460 66,102 277,756
Gross profit 195,201 69,231 54,781 54,770 54,820 233,602 72,339 57,349 56,571 60,051 246,310
Opex 62,151 18,379 18,896 19,075 19,189 75,539 20,600 19,800 19,500 20,800 80,700
Operating profit 133,050 50,852 35,885 35,695 35,631 158,063 51,739 37,549 37,071 39,251 165,610
Non-operating profit -321 150 -52 572 504 1,174 30 30 30 30 120
Pre-tax profit 132,729 51,002 35,833 36,267 36,135 159,237 51,769 37,579 37,101 39,281 165,730
Income tax 20,719 8905 6255 6478 5424 27,062 8801 6388 6307 6678 28,174
Non-GAAP Net Income 112,010 42,097 29,578 29,789 30,711 132,175 42,968 31,191 30,794 32,603 137,556
Non-GAAP EPS ($) 7.46 2.84 2.01 2.01 2.11 8.97 2.96 2.16 2.14 2.28 9.54
Diluted shares 15,005 14,810 14,726 14,815 14,570 14,730 14,510 14,450 14,390 14,330 14,420
Margin analysis
Gross margin 46.9% 48.2% 49.3% 50.1% 47.9% 48.8% 46.0% 47.1% 47.5% 47.6% 47.0%
Operating margin 32.0% 35.4% 32.3% 32.6% 31.1% 33.0% 32.9% 30.9% 31.1% 31.1% 31.6%
Pre-tax margin 31.9% 35.5% 32.2% 33.1% 31.6% 33.3% 32.9% 30.9% 31.2% 31.1% 31.6%
Effective tax rate 15.6% 17.5% 17.5% 17.9% 15.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Growth (% YoY)
Sales 6.4% 15.7% 16.6% 16.4% 11.7% 15.1% 9.4% 9.4% 8.8% 10.2% 9.4%
Operating profit 8.0% 18.7% 21.3% 26.6% 9.9% 18.8% 1.7% 4.6% 3.9% 10.2% 4.8%
Net income 19.5% 15.9% 19.4% 27.1% 11.8% 18.0% 2.1% 5.5% 3.4% 6.2% 4.1%
EPS 22.7% 18.5% 22.0% 28.3% 14.1% 20.2% 4.2% 7.5% 6.4% 7.9% 6.3%
Product mix (%)
iPhone 50% 59% 51% 50% 50% 53% 63% 53% 50% 51% 55%
Mac 8% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8%
iPad 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Wearables, Home and Accessories 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Service 26% 21% 28% 28% 28% 26% 21% 28% 29% 28% 26%

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Valuation and Recommendation

Hold with TP of $334

We rate Apple (AAPL US) Hold and set our TP at $334 which is based on 35x our FY27E EPS estimate. We believe it is important to capture the 2H26-3Q27's iPhone 18 product cycle, given high market interest. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to downstream firms.

We believe Apple's ecosystem will remain strong and associated revenue durability is high. This is backed by Apple's installed base growth, double digit YoY growth in services. However, the market would wait for visibility for its Apple Intelligence. Meanwhile, the market will need more visibility on the higher-high retail prices for the iPhone 18 series due to the rising cost over tariff and 2nm/memories. That said, we expect its earnings growth to be high-teens to 20% YoY in FY26E-FY28E, from single digit YoY in FY22-FY24. Considering >30x one-year P/E, the stock doesn't look particularly cheap.

Figure 4: Apple's 12-month forward P/E

Sources: Bloomberg, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

1) weak demand, 2) competition, 3) product delays, 4) geo-tension.

US$ m Cash Flow

152,987 147,957 191,096 215,653 225,317 Operating cash flow

14,287 14,585 16,781 18,367 20,249 Other operating cash flow

45,680 49,834 10,077 10,176 12,932 Other investing cash flow

10,912 12,350 64,401 47,125 41,232 Other financing cash flow
Cash Flow US$ m
As of Sep 30 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E
Operating cash flow 118,254 111,482 155,558 160,863 180,490
Profit for the year 78,893 97,166 132,175 137,556 157,692
Depreciation & amortization 11,445 11,698 11,961 10,707 11,572
Change in working capital 25,545 -17,296 11,422 12,600 11,227
Other operating cash flow 2,371 19,914 0 0 0
Investing cash flow 2,935 15,195 -9,716 -6,246 -41,211
Capex -13,305 -15,746 27,902 -10,700 -14,221
Other investing cash flow 16,240 30,941 -37,618 4,454 -26,990
Free cash flow 121,189 126,677 145,842 154,617 139,279
Financing cash flow -121,211 -120,686 -111,518 -136,810 -137,298
Change in capital -5,196 16,783 -101,234 -115,110 -129,824
Net change in debt -12,401 -10,323 -10,284 -21,700 -7,474
Other financing cash flow -103,614 -127,146 0 0 0
Exchange influence 0 0 0 0 0
Total cash generated -22 5,991 34,324 17,807 1,981

364,980 359,241 400,242 420,444 459,853 Key Financial Ratios

[Table_FinanceDetail] Balance Sheet US$ m
As of Sep 30 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E
Current assets 152,987 147,957 191,096 215,653 225,317
Cash and cash equivalents 98,004 87,877 122,201 140,008 141,989
Inventory 7,286 5,718 6,346 7,188 7,854
Accounts receivable 33,410 39,777 45,767 50,091 55,225
Other current assets 14,287 14,585 16,781 18,367 20,249
Non-current assets 211,993 211,284 209,145 204,790 234,536
Long-term equity investment 91,479 77,723 115,341 110,887 137,877
Fixed assets 45,680 49,834 10,077 10,176 12,932
Other long-term assets 74,834 83,727 83,727 83,727 83,727
Total assets 364,980 359,241 400,242 420,444 459,853
Current liabilities 176,392 165,631 237,919 239,993 253,009
Accounts payable 68,960 69,860 77,534 87,817 95,959
Short-term borrowings 10,912 12,350 64,401 47,125 41,232
Other current liabilities 96,520 83,421 95,984 105,051 115,818
Non-current liabilities 131,638 119,877 57,649 53,330 51,857
Long-term debt 85,750 78,328 16,100 11,781 10,308
Other non-current liabilities 45,888 41,549 41,549 41,549 41,549
Total liabilities 308,030 285,508 295,568 293,324 304,866
Total equity 56,950 73,733 104,674 127,120 154,987
Share capital 83,276 93,568 93,568 93,568 93,568
Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
Capital adjustment -26,326 -19,835 11,106 33,552 61,419
Minorities 0 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities & Equity 364,980 359,241 400,242 420,444 459,853

FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E Operating profit growth

180,683 195,201 233,602 246,310 274,270 Gross profit margin

57,467 62,151 75,539 80,700 84,400 Operating profit margin

29,749 20,719 27,062 28,174 32,298 Gross debt/equity

93,736 112,010 132,175 137,556 157,692 Quick ratio

Profit & Loss US$ m
As of Sep 30 Revenue FY24 391,035 FY25 416,161 FY26 478,834 FY27E 524,066 FY28E 577,780
Cost of sales 210,352 220,960 245,232 277,756 303,510
Gross profit 180,683 195,201 233,602 246,310 274,270
Operating expense 57,467 62,151 75,539 80,700 84,400
Operating profit 123,216 133,050 158,063 165,610 189,870
Interest income 269 0 0 0 0
Interest expense 0 321 0 0 0
Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) 0 0 1,174 120 120
Pre-tax profit 123,485 132,729 159,237 165,730 189,990
Income tax 29,749 20,719 27,062 28,174 32,298
Profit for the year 93,736 112,010 132,175 137,556 157,692
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit to ord. equity 93,736 112,010 132,175 137,556 157,692
EPS 6.1 7.5 9.0 9.5 11.0
Key Financial Ratios - As of Sep 30 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27E FY28E
Growth
Revenue growth 2.0 6.4 15.1 9.4 10.2
Operating profit growth 7.8 8.0 18.8 4.8 14.6
Net profit growth -3.4 19.5 18.0 4.1 14.6
Profitability
Gross profit margin 46.2 46.9 48.8 47.0 47.5
Operating profit margin 31.5 32.0 33.0 31.6 32.9
Net profit margin 24.0 26.9 27.6 26.2 27.3
Key Ratio
ROA 26.1 30.9 34.8 33.5 35.8
ROE 157.4 171.4 148.2 118.7 111.8
Stability
Gross debt/equity 169.7 123.0 76.9 46.3 33.3
Interest coverage -- 414.5 -- -- --
Current ratio 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
Quick ratio 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
Net debt/equity 27.4 13.1 Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash

[Table_Index]

Rating definitions Benchmark: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (China mainland)

[Table_CompanyInvestDescription]

Company ratings Buy：

Hold：

Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Underperform： Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

[Table_IndustryInvestDescription]

Sector ratings Positive：

Neutral：

Cautious：

Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

[Table_Address]

Hong Kong Company

Address GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

[Table_Disclaimer]

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited ('GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage'). According to the laws, regulations and regulatory requirements in different countries and regions, this report is distributed by GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage with relevant legal and compliant operation qualifications in these countries and regions.

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圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-07）

檔名 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_廣發香港_Apple_F4Q26_20261103_001.png 真資料圖（股價估值圖，不嵌 lib） Figure 4 折線圖，Apple 12 個月遠期 P/E（PER）與平均線，橫軸 Dec-17 至 Dec-25 後，平均線標示 Avg. = 23x；2018 年底低點約 12x，2023 年底至 2024 年初高點約 37x，圖尾（2026 年）約 35x

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