PDF 原檔：報告_廣發香港_AMD_3Q26_20261104_original.pdf
原始內容
[Table_Title]
Raised Server CPU and AI Outlook Offsets PC Softness
[Table_Summary] Maintain TP of $720, retain Buy: On Nov 3, AMD delivered better than feared 4Q26 guidance, as the market expectations were lowered post Intel's earnings on Oct 29, and provided positive outlook on server CPU, datacenter GPU and the overall AI demand. Driven by the trend of agentic AI and the increase in supply, the company guided the revenue to grow by greater than 80% YoY in 2027, along with the raise in server CPU outlook to >100% YoY. That said, we remain bullish on the stock, backed by robust server CPU TAM, 2nm CPU product cycle, wafer supply increase (amid our view of loosening N2 supply), MI450/MI455X ramp-up and lowered expectations for PC. By factoring in results, guidance and lower OPEX, we revise EPS estimates by +3%/+5% in 2026E/2027E while maintain TP at $720, now based a lower multiple of 38x 2027E EPS, implying 27x 2028E EPS, due to lowered capex outlook (see our report of CSP Capex Wrap-up on Nov 2).
4Q26 guidance better than feared, +80% YoY in 2027: AMD posted strong 3Q26 with revenue of $13.38bn (+45% YoY, vs. guidance of $13bn, consensus 13.1bn, our estimate of $13.3bn), non-GAAP EPS of $2.1 (+74% YoY, vs. consensus of $1.95) and non-GAAP gross margin at 56%, driven by Datacenter which was $8.5bn (+97% YoY), led by EPYC CPUs and the MI450 GPU ramp. For 4Q26 guidance, it guided sales of ~$17bn ±3% (vs. Bloomberg consensus $16.2bn, Buy-side $16.5-$17.0bn, our estimate of $17.6bn) implies ~66% YoY and ~27% QoQ and non-GAAP gross margin near 55%. Due to the lowered expectation post Intel's earnings, we believe AMD's guidance will be read positively. For 2027, the company expects total revenue to grow greater than 80%, with Datacenter accounting for more than 80%.
Mgmt raised its datacenter outlook reflecting customer commitments and improved supply: CEO Lisa Su suggested server revenue is expected to double YoY in 2027 (vs. prior view of more than 70% YoY, our estimate of 109%), while datacenter AI revenue is projected to grow 'significantly more than double', driven by the ramp of MI450/Helios (shipping in revenue with a ramp in 4Q26/1Q27), the Venice CPU ramp, and supply secured across wafers, substrates, advanced packaging, and memory. Looking further ahead, the company sees high client interest in MI500, and we still expect the spec of dual-die/12-Hi HBM and quad-die/8-Hi (high-end with NPO scale-up) in late 2027, to address both mainstream and high performance.
Risks: 1) AI demand slowdown; 2) new product delay; 3) peer competition.
Profit forecast
| [Table_Finance] US$ m | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25,785 | 34,639 | 52,682 | 104,000 | 145,898 |
| Revenue YoY (%) | 13.7 | 34.3 | 52.1 | 97.4 | 40.3 |
| Net Profit | 5,420 | 6,831 | 13,695 | 32,326 | 47,181 |
| Net Profit YoY (%) | 26.0 | 26.0 | 100.5 | 136.0 | 46.0 |
| EPS | 3.31 | 4.17 | 8.25 | 19.07 | 26.81 |
| P/E | 107.4 | 85.1 | 43.0 | 18.6 | 13.3 |
| ROE (%) | 9.4 | 10.8 | 18.3 | 31.5 | 33.2 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
[Table_Rank]
Maintained
Target price
[Table_Author]
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE no: BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang
SFC CE no: BYA749
henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
Buy US$720
Earnings Forecast
3Q26 Results Above Expectations
AMD delivered a record third quarter that beat expectations, underscoring the company's accelerating shift toward datacenter. Revenue reached $13.38bn, up 45% YoY and above the high end of prior guidance as well as the roughly $13.1bn consensus and slightly higher than our forecast of $13.3bn. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $2.1 (up 74% YoY), vs. expectations of $1.95, with non-GAAP gross margin at 56%. Segment wise, Data Center was the driver at a record $8.5bn (+97% YoY, 64% of total revenue), fueled by strong EPYC server CPU demand and the initial ramp of Instinct MI450 GPUs. Client & Gaming revenue was $3.7bn (-8% YoY), with Client at $2.9bn (+7% YoY on Ryzen mobile) offset by Gaming at $773mn (-40% YoY on lower semi-custom and graphics). Embedded rose 29% to $1.1bn.
4Q26 Guidance Better than Feared
For 4Q26, AMD guided revenue to approximately $17bn (±3%), implying ~66% YoY and ~27% sequential growth at the midpoint-well above the ~$16.2bn Bloomberg consensus (vs. our forecast of $17.6bn), with non-GAAP gross margin expected around 55%.
Figure 1: 3Q26 Results Review
| USD mn | 3Q26 | 2Q26 | QoQ | 3Q25 | YoY | GFHK | Diff | Cons. | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13,377 | 11,536 | 16.0% | 9,246 | 44.7% | 13,327 | 0.4% | 13,079 | 2.3% |
| Gross profit | 7,483 | 6,488 | 15.3% | 4,992 | 49.9% | 7,472 | 0.1% | 7,337 | 2.0% |
| OPEX | 3,560 | 3,394 | 4.9% | 2,754 | 29.3% | 3,650 | -2.5% | 3,661 | -2.8% |
| Operating profit | 3,923 | 3,094 | 26.8% | 2,238 | 75.3% | 3,822 | 2.6% | 3,676 | 6.7% |
| Pre-tax profit | 2,953 | 2,347 | 25.8% | 1,672 | 76.6% | 3,877 | -23.8% | 3,711 | -20.4% |
| Net profit | 3,471 | 2,760 | 25.8% | 1,965 | 76.6% | 3,373 | 2.9% | 3,253 | 6.7% |
| EPS (US$) | 2.09 | 1.66 | 25.9% | 1.20 | 74.2% | 2.03 | 3.0% | 1.97 | 6.1% |
| ppt | ppt | ppt | ppt | ||||||
| Gross Margin | 55.9% | 56.2% | -0.3 | 54.0% | 1.9 | 56.1% | -0.2 | 56.1% | -0.2 |
| Operating Margin | 29.3% | 26.8% | 2.5 | 24.2% | 5.1 | 28.7% | 0.6 | 28.1% | 1.2 |
| Pretax margin | 22.1% | 20.3% | 1.8 | 18.1% | 4.0 | 29.1% | -7.0 | 28.4% | -6.3 |
| Net margin | 25.9% | 23.9% | 2.0 | 21.3% | 4.6 | 25.3% | 0.6 | 24.9% | 1.0 |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: AMD's server CPU and GPU revenue (USD bn)
AI GPU Server CPU
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings Revision
By factoring in results, guidance and lower OPEX, we revise EPS estimates by +3%/+5% in 2026E/2027E.
Figure 3: Earnings revision
| USD m | 2025 | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | Change (%) - 2026E | Change (%) - 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 34,639 | 52,707 | 52,682 | 103,153 | 104,000 | 0% | 1% |
| Gross profit | 18,165 | 29,451 | 29,320 | 57,204 | 57,077 | 0% | 0% |
| EBIT | 7,768 | 14,962 | 15,471 | 34,704 | 37,077 | 3% | 7% |
| Pre-tax Income | 6,663 | 13,712 | 13,203 | 34,924 | 37,157 | -4% | 6% |
| Net profit | 6,831 | 13,236 | 13,695 | 30,384 | 32,326 | 3% | 6% |
| EPS (US$) | 4.17 | 7.98 | 8.25 | 18.07 | 19.07 | 3% | 6% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 52.4% | 55.9% | 55.7% | 55.5% | 54.9% | ||
| Operating margin | 22.4% | 28.4% | 29.4% | 33.6% | 35.7% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 19.2% | 26.0% | 25.1% | 33.9% | 35.7% | ||
| Net profit margin | 19.7% | 25.1% | 26.0% | 29.5% | 31.1% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 4: AMD's P&L forecast
| (USD m) | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 2026E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 34,639 | 10,253 | 11,536 | 13,377 | 17,516 | 52,682 | 21,706 | 25,179 | 27,527 | 29,588 | 104,000 |
| COGS | 16,474 | 4,568 | 5,048 | 5,894 | 7,852 | 23,362 | 9,920 | 11,366 | 12,390 | 13,247 | 46,923 |
| Gross profit | 18,165 | 5,685 | 6,488 | 7,483 | 9,664 | 29,320 | 11,786 | 13,812 | 15,137 | 16,341 | 57,077 |
| OPEX | 10,397 | 3,145 | 3,394 | 3,560 | 3,750 | 13,849 | 4,300 | 4,800 | 5,200 | 5,700 | 20,000 |
| Operating profit | 7,768 | 2,540 | 3,094 | 3,923 | 5,914 | 15,471 | 7,486 | 9,012 | 9,937 | 10,641 | 37,077 |
| Non-operating profit | -1,105 | -613 | -747 | -970 | 62 | -2,268 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 80 |
| Pre-tax profit | 6,663 | 1,927 | 2,347 | 2,953 | 5,976 | 13,203 | 7,506 | 9,032 | 9,957 | 10,661 | 37,157 |
| Income tax | -168 | -338 | -413 | -518 | 777 | -492 | 976 | 1174 | 1294 | 1386 | 4,830 |
| Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Non-GAAP Net income | 6,831 | 2,265 | 2,760 | 3,471 | 5,199 | 13,695 | 6,530 | 7,858 | 8,662 | 9,275 | 32,326 |
| Non-GAAP EPS (USD$) | 4.17 | 1.37 | 1.66 | 2.09 | 3.12 | 8.25 | 3.90 | 4.66 | 5.09 | 5.40 | 19.07 |
| Outstanding shares | 1,637 | 1,650 | 1,659 | 1,661 | 1,668 | 1,660 | 1,677 | 1,685 | 1,702 | 1,718 | 1,695 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 52.4% | 55.4% | 56.2% | 55.9% | 55.2% | 55.7% | 54.3% | 54.9% | 55.0% | 55.2% | 54.9% |
| Operating margin | 22.4% | 24.8% | 26.8% | 29.3% | 33.8% | 29.4% | 34.5% | 35.8% | 36.1% | 36.0% | 35.7% |
| Pre-tax margin | 19.2% | 18.8% | 20.3% | 22.1% | 34.1% | 25.1% | 34.6% | 35.9% | 36.2% | 36.0% | 35.7% |
| Effective tax rate | -2.5% | -17.5% | -17.6% | -17.5% | 13.0% | -3.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Growth (% YoY) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 34% | 38% | 50% | 45% | 71% | 52% | 112% | 118% | 106% | 69% | 97% |
| Operating profit | 28% | 43% | 245% | 75% | 107% | 99% | 195% | 191% | 153% | 80% | 140% |
| Net income | 26% | 45% | 253% | 77% | 106% | 100% | 188% | 185% | 150% | 78% | 136% |
| EPS | 26% | 43% | 247% | 75% | 104% | 98% | 184% | 180% | 144% | 73% | 131% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| Data Center | 52% | 56% | 58% | 64% | 77% | 65% | 81% | 82% | 83% | 85% | 83% |
| Client | 30% | 28% | 27% | 22% | 13% | 21% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 9% |
| Gaming | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Embedded | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Buy with TP up to $720
We rate AMD (AMD US) Buy and set our TP at $720, which is based on 38x our 2027E EPS, or 27x 2028E EPS estimate, lower than our earlier multiple of 40x 2027 EPS due to lower CSP Capex outlook in 2028. Yet, we still expect to deliver >50% earnings CAGR and enhanced competitive positioning into MI455/MI500 and agentic AI product cycle. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to fabless firms.
AMD's P/E traded at an average of 36x since 2017 and 38x since 4Q22, when the AI cycle started. Our target price multiple is inline average level of its AI cycle, despite the fact that the average P/E was distorted by the overly optimistic sentiment of its MI300 cycle in 4Q23-1H24. Further upside or downside to valuation remains the margin trends and how the company executes the MI455 including the rack solution.
Figure 5: AMD's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
- 1) AI demand slowdown; 2) new product delay; 3) peer competition.
US$ m Cash Flow
19,049 26,947 33,734 60,089 90,227 Operating cash flow
1,991 2,160 3,285 6,485 9,098 Other operating cash flow
2,425 2,312 6,124 7,624 9,124 Other investing cash flow
727 Other financing cash flow
| Cash Flow | US$ m | ||||
| As of Dec 31 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
| Operating cash flow | 3,041 | 7,709 | 13,259 | 24,246 | 42,267 |
| Profit for the year | 5,420 | 6,831 | 13,695 | 32,326 | 47,181 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 3,064 | 3,004 | 3,121 | 3,240 | 3,718 |
| Change in working capital | -685 | -3,882 | -3,557 | -11,320 | -8,633 |
| Other operating cash flow | -4,758 | 1,756 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Investing cash flow | -1,101 | -5,533 | -17,933 | -15,740 | -16,218 |
| Capex | -3,267 | -2,891 | -6,933 | -4,740 | -5,218 |
| Other investing cash flow | 2,166 | -2,642 | -11,000 | -11,000 | -11,000 |
| Free cash flow | 1,940 | 2,176 | -4,675 | 8,506 | 26,048 |
| Financing cash flow | -2,062 | -431 | 3,735 | -6,033 | -14,441 |
| Change in capital | -3,744 | -1,400 | -1,882 | -4,600 | -7,600 |
| Net change in debt | -1,282 | 1,501 | 6,679 | -903 | -6,576 |
| Other financing cash flow | 2,964 | -532 | -1,062 | -531 | -266 |
| Exchange influence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total cash generated | -122 | 1,745 | -939 | 2,472 | 11,607 |
69,226 76,926 98,525 137,380 180,018 Key Financial Ratios
| [Table_FinanceDetail] Balance Sheet | US$ m | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As of Dec 31 Current assets | FY24 19,049 | FY25 26,947 | FY26E 33,734 | FY27E 60,089 | FY28E 90,227 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 5,132 | 10,552 | 9,613 | 12,085 | 23,692 |
| Inventory | 5,734 | 7,920 | 11,232 | 22,559 | 30,839 |
| Accounts receivable | 6,192 | 6,315 | 9,604 | 18,960 | 26,599 |
| Other current assets | 1,991 | 2,160 | 3,285 | 6,485 | 9,098 |
| Non-current assets | 50,177 | 49,979 | 64,791 | 77,291 | 89,791 |
| Long-term equity investment | 149 | 0 | 11,000 | 22,000 | 33,000 |
| Fixed assets | 2,425 | 2,312 | 6,124 | 7,624 | 9,124 |
| Other long-term assets | 47,603 | 47,667 | 47,667 | 47,667 | 47,667 |
| Total assets | 69,226 | 76,926 | 98,525 | 137,380 | 180,018 |
| Current liabilities | 7,281 | 9,455 | 15,720 | 28,012 | 35,938 |
| Accounts payable | 2,466 | 2,929 | 4,154 | 8,343 | 11,405 |
| Short-term borrowings | 0 | 874 | 2,970 | 2,700 | 727 |
| Other current liabilities | 4,815 | 5,652 | 8,596 | 16,970 | 23,806 |
| Non-current liabilities | 4,377 | 4,472 | 7,993 | 6,830 | 1,961 |
| Long-term debt | 1,721 | 2,348 | 6,931 | 6,299 | 1,696 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 2,656 | 2,124 | 1,062 | 531 | 266 |
| Total liabilities | 11,658 | 13,927 | 23,713 | 34,842 | 37,899 |
| Total equity | 57,568 | 62,999 | 74,812 | 102,538 | 142,120 |
| Share capital | 61,379 | 63,382 | 62,500 | 60,901 | 59,301 |
| Reserves | -6,106 | -7,079 | -8,079 | -11,079 | -17,080 |
| Capital adjustment | 2,295 | 6,696 | 20,391 | 52,717 | 99,898 |
| Minorities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 69,226 | 76,926 | 98,525 | 137,380 | 180,018 |
FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E Operating profit growth
13,759 18,165 29,320 57,077 81,751 Gross profit margin
7,621 10,397 13,849 20,000 27,600 Operating profit margin
-492 4,830 7,050 Gross debt/equity
5,420 6,831 13,695 32,326 47,181 Quick ratio
| Profit & Loss | US$ m | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As of Dec 31 Revenue | FY24 25,785 | FY25 34,639 | FY26E 52,682 | FY27E 104,000 | FY28E 145,898 |
| Cost of sales | 12,026 | 16,474 | 23,362 | 46,923 | 64,147 |
| Gross profit | 13,759 | 18,165 | 29,320 | 57,077 | 81,751 |
| Operating expense | 7,621 | 10,397 | 13,849 | 20,000 | 27,600 |
| Operating profit | 6,138 | 7,768 | 15,471 | 37,077 | 54,151 |
| Interest income | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Interest expense | 92 | 36 | -198 | -80 | -80 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | -1,436 | -1,069 | -2,466 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 4,610 | 6,663 | 13,203 | 37,157 | 54,231 |
| Income tax | -810 | -168 | -492 | 4,830 | 7,050 |
| Profit for the year | 5,420 | 6,831 | 13,695 | 32,326 | 47,181 |
| Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 5,420 | 6,831 | 13,695 | 32,326 | 47,181 |
| EPS | 3.31 | 4.17 | 8.25 | 19.07 | 26.81 |
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As of Dec 31 Growth | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
| Revenue growth | 13.7% | 34.3% | 52.1% | 97.4% | 40.3% |
| Operating profit growth | 26.5% | 26.6% | 99.2% | 139.7% | 46.1% |
| Net profit growth | 26.0% | 26.0% | 100.5% | 136.0% | 46.0% |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 53.4% | 52.4% | 55.7% | 54.9% | 56.0% |
| Operating profit margin | 23.8% | 22.4% | 29.4% | 35.7% | 37.1% |
| Net profit margin | 21.0% | 19.7% | 26.0% | 31.1% | 32.3% |
| Key Ratio | |||||
| ROA | 7.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 27.4% | 29.7% |
| ROE | 9.4% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 31.5% | 33.2% |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 3.0 | 5.1 | 13.2 | 8.8 | 1.7 |
| Interest coverage | 51.1 | 186.1 | -65.7 | -463.5 | -676.9 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Quick ratio | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Net debt/equity | Net Cash | Net Cash | 0.4 | Net Cash | Net Cash |
[Table_Index]
Rating definitions Benchmark: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (China mainland)
[Table_CompanyInvestDescription]
Company ratings Buy：
Hold：
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Underperform： Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
[Table_IndustryInvestDescription]
Sector ratings Positive：
Neutral：
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious：
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
[Table_Address]
Hong Kong Company
Address GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Telephone
(852) 37191111
Email evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
[Table_Disclaimer]
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圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-07）
| 檔名 | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|
| 報告_廣發香港_AMD_3Q26_20261104_001.png | 未逐張驗證（<40KB） | Figure 2「AMD's server CPU and GPU revenue (USD bn)」，圖例 AI GPU／Server CPU；財務圖，不嵌 lib |
| 報告_廣發香港_AMD_3Q26_20261104_002.png | 真資料圖（股價估值圖，不嵌 lib） | Figure 5 折線圖，AMD 12 個月遠期 P/E（PER）與平均線，橫軸 Jul-17 至 Jul-26，平均線標示 Avg. = 36x；2018 年中高點約 80x、2024 年中低點約 12x、2026 年近期約 35-50x |