PDF 原檔：報告_廣發_貿聯-KY3665_20260925_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-29）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_廣發_貿聯-KY3665_20260925_001.png |
46KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 1：季度營收堆疊長條（NTD bn，左軸 0-30，1Q24 至 4Q27E；分 Data Center/HPC、Peripherals、Interflex（圖例原文）、Others 四類）疊毛利率與營業利益率折線（右軸 0-40%）；HPC 長條自 1Q24 約 1.7 升至 4Q27E 約 20，Interflex 自 4Q26E 起出現 |
報告_廣發_貿聯-KY3665_20260925_002.png |
56KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 4：貿聯 12 個月遠期本益比走勢（2021-05 至 2026-09），水平線 Avg.=22x、Avg. from 1Q24=26x；2026 年 4-5 月高點約 60x，圖末約 45x |
原始內容
Recent Developments Earnings Accretive
Joint development with ams OSRAM: On Sept 21, BizLink announced a joint development with ams OSRAM to co-develop next-generation optical interconnect solutions for scale-up architectures. The collaboration focuses on a microVCSEL-based *'wide-and-slow'optical link. It offers low cost, supply-chain readiness, and easy co-packaging, targeting short-reach, power-sensitive scale-up links. Their 'wide-and-slow' architecture can aggregate many lanes to achieve high bandwidth, and at the same time avoid the InP substrate constraints. OSRAM will supply the microVCSEL light sources, while BizLink will handle fiber-connector design and assembly. It is in the R&D stage, with potential ramp in 2H27.
Interplex a meaningful contribution to earnings and positioning: Interplex's Sep 23 consolidation provides an uplift to BizLink's earnings trajectory and strengthens its AI-datacenter positioning. We estimate Interplex's current monthly run-rate at NT$1.4-1.5bn, suggesting robust sequential revenue growth in 3Q26 (+19% QoQ), 4Q26 (+20%), and 2027 (+50%). We estimate Interplex to contribute ~11% of 2027 revenue, leading to total datacom exposure to 48%/56%/64% in 2026-2028. Strategically, the deal broadens BizLink's AI-server portfolio beyond its leadership in power whips, cabling, and busbars to include chassis and other mechanical components; our supply chain research indicates Interplex is a vendor for leading GPU platforms, reinforcing BizLink's competitive position.
AEC is set to re-accelerate while power remains intact: AEC pull-in demand has begun to materialize, and we expect Credo (CRDO Buy)'s momentum to accelerate starting CY3Q26 thanks to 800G AEC for T3, which will stay as maintain product of AWS till end-2027. We also expect the company to benefit from the strong Neocloud build-outs, particularly SpaceX. Meanwhile, the HVDC roadmap remains unchanged, with 800V/660kW starting in 4Q26 and volume ramping in 2H27 alongside broader NVL576 adoption. Based on our supply chain research, we see robust build plan of 800V HVDC side-car in 2027. We note that the power whip content per rack to be doubled if a HVDC pairs with 2 VR200 NVL72 racks.
Maintain buy and raise TP to NT$3,333: We continue to expect tailwinds for its AEC, Power, optics and the acquisition of Interplex. By factoring in the Interplex consolidation, stronger AEC and higher share counts, we revise EPS estimates by +6%/+14% in 2026E/2027E and lift TP from NT$3,140 to NT$3,333, now based on 26x 2027E EPS.
Risks: 1) AI demand slowdown, 2) technology risk, 3) optical business delay, 4) competition.
Profit forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 54,080 | 71,247 | 105,095 | 157,368 | 210,657 |
| Revenue YoY (%) | 5.9 | 31.7 | 47.5 | 49.7 | 33.9 |
| Net profit (m) | 4,396 | 9,005 | 14,338 | 25,587 | 36,461 |
| Net profit YoY (%) | 89.7 | 104.8 | 59.2 | 78.5 | 42.5 |
| EPS (NT$) | 25.4 | 46.8 | 72.7 | 128.2 | 182.7 |
| P/E | 92.1 | 50.3 | 32.2 | 18.3 | 12.8 |
| ROE (%) | 12.1 | 19.3 | 21.1 | 28.2 | 30.2 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Maintained Buy
Target price NT$ 3,333
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang
SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
Figure 1: Datacom's revenue mix, vs. gross margin, op margin (NTD bn)
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings revision
By factoring in the Interplex consolidation, stronger AEC and higher share counts, we revise EPS estimates by +6%/+14% in 2026E/2027E
Figure 2: Earnings revision
| NTD m | 2025 | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | Change (%) - 2026E | Change (%) - 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 71,247 | 99,228 | 105,095 | 139,645 | 157,368 | 6% | 13% |
| Gross profit | 22,605 | 31,396 | 33,367 | 47,834 | 54,341 | 6% | 14% |
| EBIT | 12,458 | 18,033 | 19,228 | 29,765 | 34,599 | 7% | 16% |
| Pre-tax Income | 11,866 | 17,629 | 18,890 | 29,313 | 34,239 | 7% | 17% |
| Net profit | 9,005 | 13,328 | 14,338 | 21,887 | 25,587 | 8% | 17% |
| EPS (NT$) | 46.8 | 68.3 | 72.7 | 112.2 | 128.2 | 6% | 14% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 31.7% | 31.6% | 31.7% | 34.3% | 34.5% | ||
| Operating margin | 17.5% | 18.2% | 18.3% | 21.3% | 22.0% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 16.7% | 17.8% | 18.0% | 21.0% | 21.8% | ||
| Net profit margin | 12.6% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 16.3% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Link
Figure 3: Bizlink's P&L forecast
| (NTD m) | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 71,247 | 20,864 | 23,281 | 27,758 | 33,193 | 105,095 | 33,921 | 36,932 | 41,836 | 44,679 | 157,368 |
| COGS | 48,643 | 14,862 | 16,127 | 18,705 | 22,035 | 71,728 | 22,342 | 24,310 | 27,309 | 29,066 | 103,027 |
| Gross profit | 22,605 | 6,002 | 7,154 | 9,053 | 11,158 | 33,367 | 11,579 | 12,622 | 14,527 | 15,613 | 54,341 |
| Opex | 10,147 | 2,893 | 3,144 | 3,720 | 4,381 | 14,139 | 4,393 | 4,690 | 5,209 | 5,451 | 19,743 |
| Operating profit | 12,458 | 3,108 | 4,010 | 5,334 | 6,777 | 19,228 | 7,186 | 7,932 | 9,318 | 10,162 | 34,599 |
| Non-op profit | -592 | -65 | -113 | -70 | -90 | -338 | -90 | -90 | -90 | -90 | -360 |
| Pre-tax profit | 11,866 | 3,043 | 3,897 | 5,264 | 6,687 | 18,890 | 7,096 | 7,842 | 9,228 | 10,072 | 34,239 |
| Tax & Minority | 2,861 | 770 | 915 | 1,263 | 1,605 | 4,552 | 1,810 | 2,117 | 2,307 | 2,417 | 8,651 |
| Net Income | 9,005 | 2,274 | 2,982 | 4,000 | 5,082 | 14,338 | 5,287 | 5,724 | 6,921 | 7,655 | 25,587 |
| EPS (NTD) | 46.74 | 11.66 | 15.28 | 20.04 | 25.46 | 72.7 | 26.49 | 28.68 | 34.68 | 38.35 | 128.2 |
| Outstanding shares | 193 | 195 | 195 | 200 | 200 | 197 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 31.7% | 28.8% | 30.7% | 32.6% | 33.6% | 31.7% | 34.1% | 34.2% | 34.7% | 34.9% | 34.5% |
| Operating margin | 17.5% | 14.9% | 17.2% | 19.2% | 20.4% | 18.3% | 21.2% | 21.5% | 22.3% | 22.7% | 22.0% |
| Pre-tax margin | 16.7% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 19.0% | 20.1% | 18.0% | 20.9% | 21.2% | 22.1% | 22.5% | 21.8% |
| Effective tax rate | 24.1% | 25.3% | 23.5% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.1% | 25.5% | 27.0% | 25.0% | 24.0% | 25.3% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 32% | 29% | 37% | 51% | 68% | 48% | 63% | 59% | 51% | 35% | 50% |
| Operating profit | 90% | 32% | 40% | 48% | 87% | 54% | 131% | 98% | 75% | 50% | 80% |
| Net income | 105% | 41% | 47% | 52% | 85% | 59% | 133% | 92% | 73% | 51% | 78% |
| EPS | 82% | 39% | 45% | 48% | 81% | 56% | 127% | 88% | 73% | 51% | 77% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| Industrial | 35% | 34% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 32% | 29% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 29% |
| IT DataComm | 42% | 46% | 42% | 45% | 54% | 48% | 55% | 55% | 57% | 59% | 56% |
| Automotive | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% |
| Electrical Appliance | 11% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Link
Valuation and Recommendation
Maintain Buy with TP of $3,333
We rate Bizlink (3665 TT) Buy and set our TP at NT$3,333 which is based on 26x our 2027E EPS estimate, or 18x 2028E EPS, and is lower than prior 28x given recent AI supply chain de-rating. We adopt 2027 as valuation basis, as the market has looked beyond this year and to capture its robust Power business potential with the ramp-up of optical. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook.
The Bizlink is the highest-quality cabling maker worldwide and is expected to start optical business in later this year backed by the acquisition of Xin FuSheng, together with the expansion to higher-value HPC components by acquisition of Interplex. We like the company as we view it as an AI connectivity solution provider with increasing margin-accretive power business in 2026 and beyond. To further lift valuation, the ramp-up curve and margin outlook will be critical.
The company traded at an average of 22x since 2021 and was on an average of 26x since 1Q24 when the AI business. We derive our target price based on 26x P/E, which is inline with the mid-cycle level given its fast-growing AI momentum. We note the company delivered 78%/82% YoY growth in EPS in 2024/2025, and we forecast its EPS CAGR to be >50% in 2026-2028, with ROE trending up to ~30% level.
Figure 4: Bizlink's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
- 1) AI demand, 2) technology risk, 3) optical business delay, 4) competition.
Link Link NTD mn Cash Flow Statement
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | NTD mn |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Current assets | 33,668 | 51,412 | 66,718 | 95,433 | 126,719 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 10,184 | 14,404 | 12,135 | 14,946 | 19,567 |
| Inventory | 11,232 | 13,824 | 20,385 | 29,280 | 38,605 |
| Accounts Receivable | 10,473 | 14,279 | 21,063 | 31,539 | 42,219 |
| Other current assets | 1,778 | 8,905 | 13,135 | 19,668 | 26,328 |
| Non-current assets | 27,247 | 30,901 | 71,148 | 72,160 | 72,976 |
| Long-term equity investment | 840 | 914 | 962 | 1,052 | 1,142 |
| Fixed assets | 14,677 | 17,324 | 18,285 | 19,207 | 19,933 |
| Other long-term assets | 11,730 | 12,663 | 51,901 | 51,901 | 51,901 |
| Total assets | 60,915 | 82,313 | 137,866 | 167,594 | 199,695 |
| Current liabilities | 16,795 | 20,630 | 38,846 | 53,146 | 61,761 |
| Accounts Payable | 6,239 | 9,429 | 13,904 | 19,971 | 26,331 |
| Short-term borrowings | 3,832 | 2,324 | 11,848 | 13,568 | 9,184 |
| Other current liabilities | 6,724 | 8,877 | 13,094 | 19,607 | 26,246 |
| Non-current liabilities | 7,903 | 15,040 | 31,008 | 23,715 | 17,138 |
| Long-term Debt | 4,703 | 11,678 | 27,645 | 20,353 | 13,775 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 3,200 | 3,362 | 3,362 | 3,362 | 3,362 |
| Total liabilities | 24,698 | 35,670 | 69,854 | 76,861 | 78,899 |
| Total Equity | 36,217 | 46,643 | 68,012 | 90,732 | 120,796 |
| Share Capital | 1,896 | 1,950 | 1,995 | 1,995 | 1,995 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 21,609 | 25,222 | 35,135 | 35,135 | 35,135 |
| Retained earnings | 12,704 | 19,463 | 30,874 | 53,594 | 83,658 |
| Minority interests | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 60,915 | 82,313 | 137,866 | 167,594 | 199,695 |
| Cash Flow Statement | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | NTD mn - 2027E | NTD mn - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6,909 | 8,595 | 8,297 | 15,344 | 26,073 |
| Profit for the year | 4,396 | 9,005 | 14,338 | 25,587 | 36,461 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 2,211 | 2,554 | 2,842 | 3,081 | 3,278 |
| Change in working capital | -1,724 | -3,208 | -8,883 | -13,325 | -13,665 |
| Others | 2,026 | 244 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Investing cash flow | -4,377 | -10,838 | -43,089 | -4,093 | -4,093 |
| Capex | -4,344 | -4,698 | -3,300 | -3,500 | -3,500 |
| Change in investment | -254 | -73 | -48 | -90 | -90 |
| Others | 221 | -6,066 | -39,741 | -503 | -503 |
| Free cash flow | 2,532 | -2,242 | -34,792 | 11,251 | 21,980 |
| Financing cash flow | -2,943 | 5,312 | 32,523 | -8,440 | -17,359 |
| Change in Capital | 7,223 | 1,420 | 7,032 | -2,868 | -6,397 |
| Net Change in Debt | -7,446 | 5,467 | 25,491 | -5,572 | -10,962 |
| Others | -2,720 | -1,575 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Exchange influence | -41 | 1,150 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net increase in cash | -452 | 4,220 | -2,269 | 2,811 | 4,621 |
33,668 51,412 66,718 95,433 126,719 Operating cash flow
1,778 8,905 13,135 19,668 26,328 Others
11,730 12,663 51,901 51,901 51,901 Others
6,724 8,877 13,094 19,607 26,246 Others
60,915 82,313 137,866 167,594 199,695 Key Financial Ratios
1,928 2,861 4,552 8,651 12,314 Gross debt/equity
4,396 9,005 14,338 25,587 36,461 Quick Ratio
| Income Statement | NTD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2024 54,080 | 2025 71,247 | 2026E 105,095 | 2027E 157,368 | 2028E 210,657 |
| Cost of sales | 38,828 | 48,643 | 71,728 | 103,027 | 135,836 |
| Gross profit | 15,253 | 22,605 | 33,367 | 54,341 | 74,821 |
| Operating Expense | 8,687 | 10,147 | 14,139 | 19,743 | 25,886 |
| Operating profit | 6,566 | 12,458 | 19,228 | 34,599 | 48,934 |
| Interest Income | 426 | 349 | 586 | 520 | 600 |
| Interest Expense | 711 | 494 | 848 | 920 | 800 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | 38 | -447 | -76 | 40 | 40 |
| Pre-tax profit | 6,318 | 11,866 | 18,890 | 34,239 | 48,774 |
| Income tax | 1,928 | 2,861 | 4,552 | 8,651 | 12,314 |
| Profit for the year | 4,390 | 9,005 | 14,338 | 25,587 | 36,461 |
| Minority interest | -6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 4,396 | 9,005 | 14,338 | 25,587 | 36,461 |
| EPS (NT$) | 25.41 | 46.77 | 72.7 | 128.2 | 182.7 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Revenue growth | 5.9 | 31.7 | 47.5 | 49.7 | 33.9 |
| Operating profit growth | 55.0 | 89.7 | 54.4 | 79.9 | 41.4 |
| Net profit growth | 89.7 | 104.8 | 59.2 | 78.5 | 42.5 |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 28.2 | 31.7 | 31.7 | 34.5 | 35.5 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 12.1 | 17.5 | 18.3 | 22.0 | 23.2 |
| Net profit margin | 8.1 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 16.3 | 17.3 |
| Key Ratio | |||||
| ROA | 7.6 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 16.8 | 19.9 |
| ROE | 12.1 | 19.3 | 21.1 | 28.2 | 30.2 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 23.6 | 30.0 | 58.1 | 37.4 | 19.0 |
| Interest Coverage | 9.9 | 25.0 | 23.3 | 38.2 | 62.0 |
| Current Ratio | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Net debt/equity | Net Cash | Net Cash | 40.2 | 20.9 | 2.8 |
Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Hold Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Sector ratings Positive
Neutral Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
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