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Novatek Microelectronics Corp.
2026 Taiwan Summit: PC weakness offset by continued momentum from major U.S. customer
Q3 revenue still expected to grow 5-6% QoQ despite weaker notebook demand
Novatek attended our 2026 Taiwan Summit on Sep 14th. It reiterates Q326 revenue to grow 5-6% QoQ, supported by seasonal strength in S/M-sized DDI driven by the iPhone ramp. SoC revenue is expected to grow slightly QoQ, while LDDI should decline modestly as TV demand remains flattish and PC demand weakens. Importantly, management highlights notebook PC has seen a meaningful downward adjustment recently. While the company had originally expected NB shipments to decline slightly QoQ, demand has deteriorated to over 10% decline QoQ, with the impact becoming visible since mid-August. Nevertheless, Q326F guidance for TV, tablet and automotive remains unchanged. Looking into Q426, management expects seasonal weakness to continue, with softer memory-driven ASP increases and lower shipment volume likely resulting in sequential revenue decline.
GM likely peaked in Q226 and should normalize into H226 and 2027
Management highlighted that Q226 GM expanded to 42% from 39% in Q126, mainly driven by favourable product mix and lower-cost of inventory for memory. Looking ahead, GM is expected to decline QoQ in Q326F as the inventory benefit disappears and growth shifts toward S/M-sized DDI and LDDI, which carry lower margins than SoC. Management expects Q426 GM to further contract QoQ, driven by less favourable mix and softer memory-driven ASP increases. Further out, memory, foundry and OSAT costs are expected to continue rising into 2027. While Novatek expects to pass through most cost increases, management acknowledged that the degree and timing of pass-through will depend on the negotiation with its customers.
Major US customer remains the key growth driver for 2027-28
The company reiterated strong visibility from its major U.S. customer and expects revenue to further grow in 2027. Following entry into iPhone DDI programs in 2024 and subsequent share gains in 2025-26, Novatek expects to continue benefiting from rising market share as new iPhone models proliferate. Into 2027-28F, iPhone-related growth should moderate as the revenue base becomes larger, while management expects increasing contribution from premium LCD panels for Macs, supported by a more visible roadmap. Beyond the U.S. customer, image SoC remains a bright spot due to strong surveillance demand and emerging Edge AI applications, although management acknowledged recent growth rates are unlikely to be sustained.
Valuation: Maintain NEUTRAL with price target of NT$540
We retain NEUTRAL with PT of NT$540. While we continue to expect GM normalization in H226E and 2027E, we believe its GM should sustain at the high-30% level, rather than returning to pre-COVID's low-30%.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 110,429 | 102,788 | 100,663 | 111,945 | 120,452 | 121,938 | 124,882 | 128,681 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 26,662 | 21,806 | 18,237 | 23,265 | 23,506 | 22,535 | 22,937 | 23,748 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 23,318 | 20,342 | 16,348 | 21,345 | 20,931 | 20,136 | 20,519 | 20,390 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 38.32 | 33.43 | 26.86 | 35.07 | 34.39 | 33.09 | 33.72 | 33.50 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 37.00 | 32.00 | 28.00 | 22.83 | 29.81 | 29.23 | 28.12 | 28.66 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 53,889 | 48,771 | 42,419 | 49,374 | 53,311 | 56,201 | 60,207 | 64,585 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin% | 24.1 | 21.2 | 18.1 | 20.8 | 19.5 | 18.5 | 18.4 | 18.5 |
| ROIC (EBIT)% | 179.4 | 134.3 | 82.0 | 110.1 | 143.6 | 145.2 | 153.5 | 165.3 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 7.6 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 11.3 | 16.4 | 17.6 | 15.9 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 16.5 | 16.6 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 11.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 8.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 556.00 on 14-Sep-2026 22:29:56 CST
| Equities | Equities |
|---|---|
| Taiwan | Taiwan |
| Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| 12-month rating | Neutral |
| 12m price target | NT$540.00 |
| Price (14 Sep 2026) | NT$556.00 |
| RIC: 3034.TW BBG: 3034 TT | RIC: 3034.TW BBG: 3034 TT |
| Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics |
| 52-wk range | NT$567.00-361.00 |
| Market cap. | NT$338b/US$10.6b |
| Shares o/s | 609m (ORD) |
| Free float | 98% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 4,876 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$2,546.8 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$66.3b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 5.1x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | NM |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) |
| UBS | Cons. |
| 12/26E 35.07 | 33.74 |
| 12/27E 34.39 | 35.54 |
| 12/28E 33.09 | 37.32 |
Jerry Su
Analyst jerry.su@ubs.com +886-28-722 7306
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | -2.9% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 4.1% |
| Forecast stock return | 1.2% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | -5.1% |
Company Description
Novatek is a IC design company spun off from UMC's commercial product division in 1997. The company is focusing on the analog and mixed signal IC design and leads in the display driver IC and TV SoC market.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We value Novatek using a PE methodology.
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand for the consumer electronics endmarket, as well as higher market share for OLED DDI.
Downside risks include a weaker-than-expected technology end-market demand recovery and slower-than-expected inventory digestion.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
Novatek Microelectronics Corp.
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | No Catalyst |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | N/A |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 14 September 2026 04:48 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https:// neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubsquant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.