PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_聯發科2454_20261030_original.pdf
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41KB | 真資料圖 | MediaTek 12 個月前瞻本益比走勢（2010-01 至 2026 年中）：深色折線；+1 標準差 25x、平均 19x、-1 標準差 12x 三條水平線；2026 年本益比急升至約 55-57x 後回落至約 38x；估值圖 |
報告_UBS_聯發科2454_20261030_002.png |
57KB | 真資料圖 | UBS 對 MediaTek 的目標價（藍階梯，由 2023-08 約 NT$800 升至 2026-10 的 NT$7,300）與股價（黑線，2026 年 10 月約 NT$4,000 上下）對照；下方色帶標示評等：Buy 為主、2024 年 3 月至 6 月間為 Neutral；評等／目標價沿革圖，非架構圖 |
原始內容
Key Call: MediaTek Inc.
Raising TPU guidance with stronger execution
TPU v9 on track to ramp from early 2028
Amid market ske ticism on TPU execution, MediaTek delivered better outlook for Q4 and Cloud ASICs, as we reviewed. Management raised TPU sales guidance from >US $2bn to US$2.5bn for 2026, and from US$12-16bn to US$16bn for 2027. This reflects the steady Google demand for v8t for training, critical to accelerate the new Gemini LLM develo ment. Im ortantly, for TPU v9, MediaTek re-affirmed it is on track for high volume manufacturing in Q128, which clarified recent noises around delayed ta e out. Our latest understanding is there may be two versions of MediaTek's TPU v9: the first version with 336G SerDes should be ta e out soon in Nov 2026. There's a second ta e out which is on track for delivery in Feb 2027. The second version features flexible SerDes switch between 224G/336G for greater su ly flexibility for the whole system. Conclusion is, we think MediaTek is on good track to scale TPU sales to our estimates of US$44bn/53bn in 2028/29 with u side. See Figure 1UB S fo recas tM d iTk'Pb u n for our TPU financial analysis.
Thou hts on the second Cloud ASIC client
MediaTek announced the 2nd Cloud ASIC client, which should contribute to revenue in 2028. MediaTek clarified it's not a Chinese customer. We believe there are 2 higher ossibilities as what we flagged recently. 1) Tesla's AI6 using Intel 14A, roduced at Terafab ram ing in H228. Potential revenue o ortunity on full year basis could be ~US $2bn if MediaTek could ram 1m units. Margin rofile could be lower than TPU's 42% GM given sim ler design. 2) S aceX/xAI's Dojo3. MediaTek should be artnering with Nvidia to offer NVLink Fusion for faster time to market. Question is S aceX/xAI's own engineering resource and ca ability for Dojo3 after team reshuffle. If secured, our initial estimate is revenue o ortunity a year could be US$4-9bn, assuming good volume. Margin rofile may be similar or higher than TPU, in our view.
Meanin ful operatin mar in expansion ahead
Q4 sales are guided to grow 28% QoQ at the mid oint, beating consensus of 25%, even with higher base from Q3. GM is guided to edge down to 45.0% at mid oint, with OPM meaningfully rising to 19.0% from 16.1% in Q3. As MediaTek starts ram ing TPU substantially into 2027, the key focus for rofitability should shift from GM to OPM due to different business model vs consumer electronics, and our sense is the market still under a reciates the structural shift and the stronger earnings ower. We forecast MediaTek's OPM to rise to 25.2%/30.9% in 2027/28 vs consensus of 21.8%/24.2%. Our 2027/28E EPS estimates are 23%/29% above consensus re earnings.
Valuation: maintain Key Call Buy and tar et of NT$7,300
Among our coverage, MediaTek remains the one that we believe the market most underestimates its execution and o ortunity in Cloud AI. We raise 2026E EPS by 5% and fine tune 2027/28E EPS by 1-2%. Maintain Key Call Buy. Our target of NT$7,300 is based on 27x 2027-28E PE.
| Hi hli hts (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 689,687 | 1,260,282 | 2,116,057 | 2,437,730 | 2,739,147 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 71,800 | 102,412 | 103,470 | 115,531 | 318,120 | 653,361 | 772,839 | 866,867 |
| Net earnin s (UBS) | 76,979 | 106,387 | 105,319 | 116,592 | 290,313 | 581,095 | 690,126 | 776,494 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 48.34 | 66.81 | 66.07 | 73.06 | 181.91 | 364.11 | 432.43 | 486.55 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 79.48 | 82.90 | 53.50 | 58.56 | 145.82 | 291.88 | 346.65 | 390.03 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 163,196 | 202,756 | 234,290 | 308,633 | 414,945 | 560,006 | 811,105 | 1,001,793 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) mar in % | 16.6 | 19.3 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 25.2 | 30.9 | 31.7 | 31.6 |
| ROIC (EBIT) % | 61.8 | 231.3 | >500 | <-500 | >500 | >500 | >500 | >500 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 10.2 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 41.2 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 15.8 | 17.9 | 20.8 | 53.6 | 21.5 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 8.0 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield % | 13.1 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 10.0 |
Source: Com any accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments a lied. Valuations: based on an average share rice that year, (E): based on a share rice of NT$ 3,915.00 on 30-Oct-2026 20:28:09 CST
Equities
Taiwan
Semiconductors
12-month ratin
12m price tar et Buy NT$7,300.00
Price (30 Oct 2026)
NT$3,915
RIC: 2454.TWBBG: 2454 TT
Tradin data and key metrics
52-wk ran e NT$5,285.00-1,145.00
Market cap.
NT$6,279b/US$193b
Shares o/s
1,604m (ORD)
Free float
88%
Av . daily volume ('000)
8,841
Av . daily value (m)
NT$38,010.4
Common s/h equity (12/26E)
NT$467b
P/BV (12/26E)
13.4x
Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E)
NM
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (TWD) | From | To | % ch | Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/26E | 69.40 | 73.06 | 5 | 69.48 |
| 12/27E | 177.51 | 181.91 | 2 | 148.42 |
| 12/28E | 361.21 | 364.11 | 1 | 283.61 |
Sunny Lin
Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346
Ryan Sun Analyst ryan-za.sun@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7267
Christine Chen, CFA
Associate Analyst christine.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7352
Fi ure 1: UBS forecasts for MediaTek's TPU business
| 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google's TPU sales (US$mn) | 2,498 | 19,200 | 44,100 | 52,500 | 60,000 |
| Google's TPU sales (NT$mn) | 79,250 | 608,640 | 1,397,9701,664,2501,902,000 | ||
| % of total sales | 11% | 48% | 66% | 68% | 69% |
| Gross profits (NT$mn) | 33,285 | 255,629 | 587,147 | 698,985 | 798,840 |
| Gross margin | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| OPEX (NT$mn) | 15,850 | 33,475 | 41,939 | 49,928 | 57,060 |
| OPEX ratio | 20.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Operating profits (NT$mn) | 17,435 | 222,154 | 545,208 | 649,058 | 741,780 |
| Operating margin | 22% | 37% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| Tax rate | 13.4% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Net profits (NT$mn) | 15,096 | 189,941 | 466,153 | 554,944 | 634,222 |
| EPS contribution (NT$) | 9.5 | 119.3 | 292.7 | 348.4 | 398.2 |
| Consolidated EPS (NT$) | 73.2 | 182.3 | 364.9 | 433.3 | 487.5 |
Source: UBS estimates
Fi ure 2: MediaTek's key rowth drivers
| Base case (NT$m) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G flagship | 110,921 | 106,894 | 158,429 | 173,141 |
| % of sales | 19% | 15% | 13% | 8% |
| Units (m) | 21.5 | 19.0 | 26.5 | 28.0 |
| ASP (US$) | 165.3 | 177.3 | 188.6 | 195.1 |
| 5G non-flagship | 166,745 | 123,882 | 111,303 | 131,920 |
| % of sales | 28% | 18% | 9% | 6% |
| Units (m) | 189.0 | 145.0 | 136.0 | 160.0 |
| ASP (US$) | 28.3 | 26.9 | 25.8 | 26.0 |
| PC CPUs | 4,732 | 9,131 | 15,047 | |
| % of sales | 1% | 1% | 1% | |
| Units (m) | 3.7 | 7.2 | 11.9 | |
| - Total NB units (m) | 181 | 186 | 192 | 198 |
| - WOA penetration in PC market | 10% | 15% | 20% | |
| - NVIDIA/MediaTek's share | 20% | 25% | 30% | |
| Royalty fee (US$ per chip) | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | |
| Cloud ASICs | 79,250 | 608,640 | 1,397,970 | |
| % of sales | 11% | 48% | 66% | |
| Automotive | 11,233 | 15,102 | 20,288 | 55,475 |
| % of sales | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| TAM for cockpit, connectivity (US$bn) | 24 | 28 | 32 | 35 |
| MediaTek's share | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| Wi-Fi 7 | 4,487 | 7,716 | 11,983 | 16,611 |
| % of sales | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Units (m) | 17.8 | 33.4 | 54.6 | 79.6 |
| ASP (US$) | 8.1 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| Revenue from new growth drivers (NT$m) | 293,386 | 337,577 | 919,773 | 1,790,164 |
| % of sales | 49% | 49% | 73% | 85% |
| Total MediaTek sales (NT$m) | 595,966 | 689,687 | 1,260,282 | 2,116,057 |
| YoY growth | 12% | 16% | 83% | 68% |
Source: Com any data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 3: Q326 earnin s comparison
| (NT$m) | Q326A | Guidance | VA | Diff. vs VA | LSEG | Diff. vs LSEG | UBSe | Diff. vs UBSe | Q226 | Q325 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 168,058 | NT$152.2bn-159.8bn | 163,476 | 3% | 160,762 | 5% | 168,058 | 0% | 152,183 | 142,097 | 18% |
| Gross profit | 77,848 | 75,391 | 3% | 74,301 | 5% | 77,612 | 0% | 70,308 | 66,112 | 18% | |
| - Gross margin | 46.3% | 46.0% +/- 1.5% | 46.1% | 20bps | 46.2% | 10bps | 46.2% | 14bps | 46.2% | 46.5% | -20bps |
| Operating profit | 27,102 | 25,923 | 5% | 27,385 | -1% | 25,514 | 6% | 22,868 | 22,188 | 22% | |
| - OP margin | 16.1% | 15.0% mid-pt | 15.9% | 27bps | 17.0% | -91bps | 15.2% | 95bps | 15.0% | 15.6% | 51bps |
| Non-op profit | 6,471 | 4,681 | 38% | 2,164 | 199% | 3,818 | 69% | 5,094 | 7,772 | -17% | |
| Pretax profit | 33,573 | 30,604 | 10% | 29,549 | 14% | 29,331 | 14% | 27,962 | 29,960 | 12% | |
| Net profit | 28,199 | 26,182 | 8% | 25,515 | 11% | 25,078 | 12% | 24,335 | 25,221 | 12% | |
| - Net margin | 16.8% | 16.0% | 76bps | 15.9% | 91bps | 14.9% | 186bps | 16.0% | 17.7% | -97bps | |
| EPS (NT$) | 17.50 | 16.15 | 8% | 15.79 | 11% | 15.75 | 11% | 15.28 | 15.77 | 11% |
Source: Com any data, Visible Al ha, LSEG, UBS estimate
Fi ure 4: MediaTek's operatin metrics
| Mobile Metrics | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4G Units (m) | 40.0 | 37.0 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 370.0 | 228.0 | 251.0 | 207.0 | 143.0 | 130.0 |
| 4G ASPs (US$) | 7.38 | 7.36 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 10.38 | 8.31 | 8.49 | 7.79 | 7.31 | 7.25 |
| 4G Sales (NT$m) | 9,340 | 8,600 | 7,656 | 7,587 | 6,897 | 6,897 | 8,047 | 8,047 | 114,454 | 59,049 | 68,141 | 50,302 | 33,183 | 29,888 |
| 5G Units (m) | 42.5 | 41.0 | 39.5 | 41.0 | 37.5 | 41.5 | 41.0 | 42.5 | 166.0 | 152.5 | 198.9 | 210.5 | 164.0 | 162.5 |
| 5G ASPs (US$) | 47.43 | 41.52 | 43.15 | 45.17 | 53.41 | 50.73 | 49.08 | 56.19 | 36.39 | 35.14 | 36.91 | 42.27 | 44.35 | 52.36 |
| 5G Sales (NT$m) | 63,744 | 53,795 | 54,525 | 58,712 | 63,494 | 66,742 | 63,795 | 75,701 | 180,025 | 166,960 | 234,620 | 277,667 | 230,776 | 269,732 |
| Smartphone Units (m) | 82.5 | 78.0 | 72.5 | 74.0 | 67.5 | 71.5 | 76.0 | 77.5 | 536.0 | 380.5 | 449.9 | 417.5 | 307.0 | 292.5 |
| Smartphone ASPs (US$) | 28.02 | 25.31 | 26.81 | 28.26 | 32.90 | 32.49 | 29.82 | 34.09 | 18.43 | 19.07 | 21.06 | 25.18 | 27.10 | 32.31 |
| Smartphone Sales (NT$m) | 73,084 | 62,395 | 62,181 | 66,299 | 70,391 | 73,640 | 71,842 | 83,748 | 294,479 | 226,009 | 302,761 | 327,969 | 263,959 | 299,620 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | -18% | -15% | 0% | 7% | 6% | 5% | -2% | 17% | 9% | -23% | 34% | 8% | -20% | 14% |
| % of Sales | 49% | 41% | 37% | 30% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 54% | 52% | 57% | 55% | 38% | 24% |
| Non Mobile Metrics | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
| IoT, Compute, ASIC Sales (NT$m) | 41,016 | 48,809 | 63,505 | 119,680 | 173,628 | 194,160 | 206,246 | 235,927 | 145,357 | 107,721 | 116,056 | 137,459 | 273,010 | 809,960 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | 23% | 19% | 30% | 88% | 45% | 12% | 6% | 14% | 26% | -26% | 8% | 18% | 99% | 197% |
| % of Sales | 27% | 32% | 38% | 54% | 63% | 64% | 65% | 66% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 23% | 40% | 64% |
| Smart Home Sales (NT$m) | 27,593 | 31,848 | 33,969 | 27,175 | 25,816 | 28,398 | 31,522 | 29,946 | 68,975 | 70,671 | 81,269 | 102,241 | 120,585 | 115,682 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | 24% | 15% | 7% | -20% | -5% | 10% | 11% | -5% | -5% | 2% | 15% | 26% | 18% | -4% |
| % of Sales | 19% | 21% | 20% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 9% |
| Power IC Sales (NT$m) | 7,458 | 9,131 | 8,403 | 7,142 | 6,928 | 8,314 | 10,143 | 9,636 | 39,985 | 29,046 | 30,501 | 28,296 | 32,134 | 35,021 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | 24% | 22% | -8% | -15% | -3% | 20% | 22% | -5% | 15% | -27% | 5% | -7% | 14% | 9% |
| % of Sales | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Mediatek Totals | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
| Total Sales (NT$m) | 149,151 | 152,183 | 168,058 | 220,296 | 276,763 | 304,512 | 319,752 | 359,256 | 548,796 | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 689,687 | 1,260,282 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | -1% | 2% | 10% | 31% | 26% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 11% | -21% | 22% | 12% | 16% | 83% |
| GM % | 46.3% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 45.4% | 44.9% | 44.8% | 44.8% | 44.5% | 49.4% | 47.8% | 49.6% | 47.5% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| OpM % | 15.3% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 19.4% | 23.8% | 25.7% | 25.7% | 25.5% | 23.1% | 16.6% | 19.3% | 17.4% | 16.8% | 25.2% |
| Pro Forma EPS (NT$) | 15.17 | 15.28 | 17.50 | 25.25 | 38.11 | 44.76 | 47.14 | 52.27 | 74.59 | 48.51 | 66.94 | 66.17 | 73.20 | 182.28 |
| Dividend Per Share (NT$) | 0.0 | 24.4 | 0.0 | 34.2 | 0.0 | 66.3 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 76.2 | 55.0 | 54.0 | 53.5 | 58.6 | 145.8 |
Source: Com any data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 5: Revenue mix by product roup
| Q326 | Q226 | Q126 | Q425 | Q325 | Q225 | Q125 | Q424 | Q324 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile Phone | 37% | 41% | 49% | 59% | 53% | 52% | 56% | 59% | 54% |
| Smart Edge | 58% | 53% | 46% | 37% | 42% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 40% |
| Power IC | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% |
Source: Com any data, UBS
Fi ure 6: Revisions to UBS earnin s estimates
| (NT$m) | New - 2026E | New - 2027E | New - 2028E | Old - 2026E | Old - 2027E | Old - 2028E | Change - 2026E | Change - 2027E | Change - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 689,687 | 1,260,282 | 2,116,057 | 682,910 15% | 1,250,308 83% | 2,131,656 70% | 1% | 1% | -1% |
| - YoY chg (%) Gross profit - Gross margin | 16% 317,159 46.0% | 83% 564,010 44.8% | 68% 926,748 43.8% | 315,196 46.2% | 561,183 44.9% | 934,580 43.8% | 1% | 1% | -1% |
| Operating profit - Operating margin | 115,531 16.8% | 318,120 25.2% | 653,361 30.9% | 110,776 16.2% | 317,047 25.4% | 659,173 30.9% | 4% | 0% | -1% |
| Pre-tax profit | 135,596 | 339,548 | 679,643 | 127,801 | 331,336 | 674,221 | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Reported net profit | 116,591 | 290,313 | 581,095 | 110,750 | 283,293 | 576,459 | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| - Net margin Reported EPS (NT$) | 16.9% 73.20 | 23.0% 182.28 | 27.5% 364.85 | 16.2% 69.54 | 22.7% 177.87 | 27.0% 361.94 | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| - YoY chg (%) UBS EPS (NT$) | 11% 73.20 | 149% 182.28 | 100% 364.85 | 5% 69.54 | 156% 177.87 | 103% 361.94 | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 11% | 149% | 100% | 5% | 156% | 103% | - | - | - |
Source: UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates here are based on basic EPS, and may differ from the table on the cover age.
Fi ure 7: UBS vs consensus earnin s estimates
| (NT$m) | UBS - 2026E | UBS - 2027E | UBS - 2028E | Consensus - 2026F | Consensus - 2027F | Consensus - 2028F | Difference - 2026E | Difference - 2027E | Difference - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 689,687 | 1,260,282 | 2,116,057 | 670,239 | 1,176,710 | 1,990,685 | 3% | 7% | 6% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 16% | 83% | 68% | 12% | 76% | 69% | |||
| Gross profit | 317,159 | 564,010 | 926,748 | 307,273 | 517,292 | 856,837 | 3% | 9% | 8% |
| - Gross margin | 46.0% | 44.8% | 43.8% | 45.8% | 44.0% | 43.0% | |||
| Operating profit | 115,531 | 318,120 | 653,361 | 119,318 | 255,880 | 481,421 | -3% | 24% | 36% |
| - Operating margin | 16.8% | 25.2% | 30.9% | 17.8% | 21.7% | 24.2% | |||
| Net profit | 116,591 | 290,313 | 581,095 | 111,185 | 237,481 | 455,133 | 5% | 22% | 28% |
| - Net margin | 16.9% | 23.0% | 27.5% | 16.6% | 20.2% | 22.9% | |||
| Basic EPS (NT$) | 73.20 | 182.28 | 364.85 | 69.48 | 148.42 | 283.61 | 5% | 23% | 29% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 11% | 149% | 100% | 5% | 114% | 91% |
Source: LSEG, UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates are based on basic EPS and may differ from the table on the cover age
Fi ure 8: UBS earnin s forecasts
| (NT$m) | 2025 | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | 2026E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - YoY chg (%) | 595,966 12% | 149,151 -3% | 152,183 1% | 168,058 18% | 220,296 47% | 689,687 16% | 276,763 86% | 304,512 100% | 319,752 90% | 359,256 63% | 1,260,282 83% | 2,116,057 68% | 2,437,730 15% | 2,739,147 12% |
| - QoQ chg (%) Revenue (US$ - YoY chg (%) | - 19,100 15% | -1% 4,717 1% | 2% 4,816 -1% | 10% 5,253 11% | 31% 6,949 44% 32% | - 21,738 14% | 26% 8,731 85% | 10% 9,606 99% | 5% 92% | 12% | - 39,757 83% | - 66,753 68% | 76,900 15% | - 86,408 12% |
| mn) - QoQ chg (%) Gross profit | - 283,080 | -2% 69,055 | 2% 70,308 | 9% 77,848 | 99,948 | - | 26% | 10% | 10,087 5% | 11,333 63% 12% | - | - | - - | - |
| - Gross margin Operating profit | 47.5% 103,470 | 46.3% 22,891 | 46.2% 22,868 | 46.3% 27,102 | 45.4% 42,671 | 317,159 46.0% 115,531 | 124,194 44.9% 65,797 | 136,533 44.8% 78,372 | 143,343 44.8% 82,270 | 159,940 44.5% 91,682 | 564,010 44.8% 318,120 | 926,748 43.8% 653,361 | 1,062,929 43.6% 772,839 | 1,192,825 43.5% 866,867 |
| - Operating margin Non-op profit Pre-tax profit | 17.4% 21,418 | 15.3% 4,129 27,019 | 15.0% 5,094 27,962 | 16.1% 6,471 33,573 | 19.4% 4,371 47,042 | 16.8% 135,596 | 23.8% 5,186 70,983 60,690 | 25.7% 83,382 71,292 | 25.7% 5,551 87,821 | 25.5% 5,680 | 25.2% 21,428 | 30.9% 26,282 | 31.7% 34,326 | 31.6% 41,313 |
| Net profit - YoY chg (%) | 124,888 105,319 | 24,154 | -13% | 27,882 11% | 20,065 | 5,011 | 339,548 | 679,643 | ||||||
| -1% | -18% | 24,335 | 40,221 | 116,591 | 97,362 | 290,313 | 581,095 | 807,165 690,126 | 908,180 | |||||
| - QoQ chg | - | 5% | 1% | 15% | 75% | 193% | 75,087 | 83,244 | 149% | 100% | 19% | 776,494 13% | ||
| (%) Basic EPS | 66.17 | 15.17 | 15.28 -13% | 17.50 | 44% | 11% - | 151% 51% | 17% | 169% 5% | 107% 11% | - 182.28 | - | - | - |
| (NT$) - YoY chg (%) | 10% | 25.25 | 73.20 | 38.11 | 44.76 | 47.14 | 52.27 | 149% | 364.85 100% | 433.31 | 487.54 | |||
| -1% | -18% | 75% | 11% | 151% | 193% | 169% | 107% | 19% | 13% | |||||
| - QoQ chg (%) UBS EPS (NT$) | - | 5% | 1% | 15% | 44% | - | 51% | 17% | 5% | 11% | - | - | - | - |
| - YoY chg (%) | 66.17 -1% | 15.17 -17% | 15.28 | 17.51 | 25.25 | 73.20 | 38.11 | 44.76 | 47.14 | 52.27 | 182.28 | 364.85 | 487.54 | |
| -12% | 11% | 77% | 11% | 193% | 169% | 149% | 100% | 433.31 | ||||||
| 151% | 19% | 13% | ||||||||||||
| 107% | ||||||||||||||
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | 6% | 1% | 15% | 44% | - | 51% | 17% | 5% | 11% | - | - | - | - |
Source: Com any data, UBS estimates. Note: Our EPS estimates are based on basic EPS and may differ from the table on the cover age
Fi ure 9: MediaTek's 12-month forward PE (x)
Source: Com any data, LSEG, UBS
MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW)
| Income Statement (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 689,687 | 15.7 | 1,260,282 | 82.7 | 2,116,057 | 2,437,730 | 2,739,147 |
| Gross rofit | 207,367 | 263,386 | 283,080 | 317,159 | 12.0 | 564,010 | 77.8 | 926,748 | 1,062,929 | 1,192,825 |
| EBITDA (UBS) | 90,000 | 123,348 | 126,444 | 141,811 | 12.2 | 344,827 | 143.2 | 681,754 | 802,771 | 898,430 |
| De reciation & amortisation | (18,200) | (20,936) | (22,974) | (26,279) | -14.4 | (26,707) | -1.6 | (28,393) | (29,932) | (31,563) |
| EBIT (UBS) | 71,800 | 102,412 | 103,470 | 115,531 | 11.7 | 318,120 | 175.4 | 653,361 | 772,839 | 866,867 |
| Associates & investment income | 278 | 517 | 785 | 630 | -19.8 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other non-o erating income | 7,726 | 5,903 | 10,411 | 10,630 | 2.1 | 8,400 | -21.0 | 9,200 | 9,200 | 9,200 |
| Net interest | 6,979 | 10,687 | 10,222 | 8,805 | -13.9 | 13,028 | 48.0 | 17,082 | 25,126 | 32,113 |
| Exce tionals (incl goodwill) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 86,782 | 119,519 | 124,888 | 135,596 | 8.6 | 339,548 | 150.4 | 679,643 | 807,165 | 908,180 |
| Tax | (9,591) | (12,378) | (18,770) | (18,195) | 3.1 | (49,234) | -170.6 | (98,548) | (117,039) | (131,686) |
| Profit after tax dividends | 77,191 | 107,141 | 106,118 | 117,401 | 10.6 | 290,313 | 147.3 | 581,095 | 690,126 | 776,494 |
| Preference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minorities | (212) | (754) | (798) | (809) | -1.3 - | 0 0 | - | 0 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net earnin s (local GAAP) | 76,979 | 106,387 | 105,319 | 116,592 | 10.7 | 290,313 | 149.0 | 581,095 | 690,126 | 776,494 |
| Net earnin s (UBS) | 76,979 | 106,387 | 105,319 | 116,592 | 10.7 | 290,313 | 149.0 | 581,095 | 690,126 | 776,494 |
| Tax rate (%) | 11.1 | 10.4 | 15.0 | 13.4 | -10.7 | 14.5 | 8.1 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| Per Share (NT$) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | 12/27E | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) | 48.34 | 66.81 | 66.07 | 73.06 | 10.6 | 181.91 | 149.0 | 364.11 | 432.43 | 486.55 |
| EPS (local GAAP, diluted) | 48.34 | 66.81 | 66.07 | 73.06 | 10.6 | 181.91 | 149.0 | 364.11 | 432.43 | 486.55 |
| EPS (UBS, basic) | 48.51 | 66.94 | 66.17 | 73.20 | 10.6 | 182.28 | 149.0 | 364.85 | 433.31 | 487.54 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 79.48 | 82.90 | 53.50 | 58.56 | 9.5 | 145.82 | 149.0 | 291.88 | 346.65 | 390.03 |
| Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) 1 | 59.77 | 79.95 | 80.48 | 89.52 | 11.2 | 198.64 | 121.9 | 381.90 | 451.19 | 506.33 |
| Book value er share | 230.18 | 247.95 | 249.76 | 293.12 | 17.4 | 374.91 | 27.9 | 534.89 | 632.72 | 751.06 |
| Average shares (diluted) | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,594 | 1,596 | 0.1 | 1,596 | 0.0 | 1,596 | 1,596 | 1,596 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) Cash and equivalents | 12/23 165,396 | 12/24 203,696 | 12/25 235,290 | 12/26E 350,583 | %ch 49.0 | 12/27E 456,895 | %ch 30.3 | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E 1,043,743 |
| Other current assets | 125,493 | 147,330 | 162,166 | 243,902 | 50.4 | 394,351 | 61.7 | 601,956 705,108 | 853,055 690,557 | 759,010 |
| Total current assets | 290,889 | 351,025 | 397,456 | 594,484 | 851,247 | 43.2 | 1,307,063 | 1,543,612 | 1,802,752 | |
| Net tangible fixed assets | 53,291 | 56,917 | 60,427 | 67,519 | 49.6 11.7 | 58,972 | -12.7 | 50,557 | 42,600 | 35,209 |
| Net intangible fixed assets | 138,631 | 117,400 | 114,400 | 213,783 | 86.9 | 348,635 | 63.1 | 625,657 | 612,648 | 674,091 |
| Investments / other assets | 152,228 | 172,525 | 171,501 | 179,939 | 4.9 | 172,361 | -4.2 | 164,783 | 157,205 | 149,628 |
| Total assets | 635,038 | 697,868 | 1,431,215 | 35.6 | 2,148,060 | 2,356,066 | 2,661,680 | |||
| Trade ayables & other ST liabilities | 229,799 | 265,962 | 743,785 302,410 | 1,055,725 340,095 | 41.9 | 460,413 | 35.4 | 665,835 | 730,081 | 790,299 |
| Short term debt | 2,200 | 940 | 940 | 41,950 | 12.5 NM | 41,950 | 0.0 | 41,950 | 41,950 | 41,950 |
| Total current liabilities | 231,999 | 266,902 | 303,350 | 382,045 | 25.9 | 502,363 | 31.5 | 707,785 | 772,031 | 832,249 |
| Long term debt | 0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | |
| Other long term liabilities | 28,834 | 25,910 | 31,180 | 198,038 | NM | 322,958 | 63.1 | 579,577 | 567,526 | 0 624,444 |
| Preferred shares | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 1,287,362 | 0 | 0 |
| Total liabilities (incl pref shares) | 260,833 368,206 | 292,812 396,627 | 334,590 | 580,083 466,857 | 73.4 | 825,320 | 42.3 27.9 | 851,913 | 1,339,557 1,007,724 | 1,456,693 |
| Common s/h equity | 6,000 | 400,601 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 8,785 | 8,785 | 8,785 | |||
| Minority interests | 8,428 | 8,594 | 8,785 1,055,725 | 2.2 | 597,110 8,785 1,431,215 | 2,148,060 | 2,356,066 | 1,196,202 2,661,680 | ||
| Total liabilities & equity | 635,038 | 697,868 | 743,785 | 41.9 | 12/27E | 35.6 | 12/30E | |||
| Cash Flow (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | %ch | %ch | 12/28E | 12/29E 690,126 | 776,494 | |
| Net income (before ref divs) De reciation & amortisation | 76,979 18,200 | 106,387 20,936 | 105,319 22,974 | 116,592 26,279 | 10.7 14.4 | 290,313 26,707 | 149.0 1.6 | 581,095 28,393 | 29,932 | 31,563 |
| Net change in working ca ital | 30,356 | (1,001) | (19,508) | (26,816) | -37.5 | (68,323) | -154.8 | (140,613) | 6,597 | (31,116) |
| Other o erating | 43,759 | 30,981 | 40,016 | (25,937) | - | (21,026) | 18.9 | (51,183) | 10,337 | (5,455) |
| Operatin cash flow | 169,294 | 157,303 | 148,801 | 90,119 | -39.4 | 227,671 | 152.6 | 417,691 | 736,992 | 771,486 |
| Tangible ca ital ex enditure | (9,317) 0 | (13,771) | (15,009) | (21,088) | -40.5 | (18,161) | 13.9 | (19,977) 0 | (21,975) | (24,172) |
| Intangible ca ital ex enditure | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | ||
| Net (acquisitions) & dis osals | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Other investing | (19,429) | (22,157) | 0 (22,745) | (75,946) | -233.9 | (134,852) | - -77.6 | (277,022) | 13,009 | 0 (61,443) |
| Investin cash flow | (28,746) | (35,928) | (37,754) | (97,034) | -157.0 | (153,013) | -57.7 | (297,000) | (8,966) | (85,616) |
| Equity dividends aid | (120,981) | (87,551) | (86,070) 0 | (85,392) | 0.8 | (93,265) | -9.2 | (232,251) | (464,876) 0 | (552,101) 0 |
| Share issues / (buybacks) | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | |||||
| Other financing | 4,740 | (1,309) | 167,835 | - - | 0 | -25.6 | 256,619 | (12,051) | 56,918 | |
| Change in debt & ref shares | 0 | 0 | (1,665) | 0 | - | 124,920 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Financin cash flow | (116,241) | (88,859) | 0 (87,735) | 82,443 | - | 31,654 | - -61.6 | 24,369 | (476,927) 251,099 | (495,183) |
| Cash flow inc/(dec) in cash | 24,307 | 32,516 | 75,528 | 224.0 | 106,313 | 40.8 | 145,060 | 190,687 | ||
| FX / non cash items | (6,413) | 5,784 | 23,312 8,282 | 39,765 | 380.1 | 0 | -100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet inc/(dec) in | 17,894 | 38,300 | 31,594 | 115,293 | 106,313 | 251,099 | 190,687 | |||
| cash | 264.9 | |||||||||
| -7.8 | 145,060 |
Source: Com any accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use re orted figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back de reciation and amortization.
MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW)
| Valuation (x) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (local GAAP, diluted) | 15.8 | 17.9 | 20.8 | 53.6 | 21.5 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 8.0 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) | 15.8 | 17.9 | 20.8 | 53.6 | 21.5 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 8.0 |
| P/CEPS | 12.7 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 43.6 | 19.7 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield % | 13.1 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| P/BV | 3.3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 5.2 |
| EV/revenues (core) | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) | 10.2 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 41.2 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| EV/EBIT (core) | 12.8 | 15.3 | 17.9 | 50.5 | 18.1 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| EV/O FCF (core) | 10.2 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 41.1 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| EV/o . invested ca ital | 7.9 | 35.4 | >100 | NM | >100 | 73.0 | 59.2 | >100 |
| Enterprise value (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Growth (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Revenue | (21.0) | 22.4 | 12.3 | 15.7 | 82.7 | 67.9 | 15.2 | 12.4 |
| EBITDA (UBS) | (36.5) | 37.1 | 2.5 | 12.2 | 143.2 | 97.7 | 17.8 | 11.9 |
| EBIT (UBS) | (43.4) | 42.6 | 1.0 | 11.7 | 175.4 | 105.4 | 18.3 | 12.2 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) | (35.0) | 38.2 | (1.1) | 10.6 | 149.0 | 100.2 | 18.8 | 12.5 |
| Net DPS | 4.3 | 4.3 | (35.5) | 9.5 | 149.0 | 100.2 | 18.8 | 12.5 |
| Mar ins & Profitability (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Gross rofit margin | 47.8 | 49.6 | 47.5 | 46.0 | 44.8 | 43.8 | 43.6 | 43.5 |
| EBITDA margin | 20.8 | 23.2 | 21.2 | 20.6 | 27.4 | 32.2 | 32.9 | 32.8 |
| EBIT (UBS) margin | 16.6 | 19.3 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 25.2 | 30.9 | 31.7 | 31.6 |
| Net earnings (UBS) margin | 17.8 | 20.1 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 23.0 | 27.5 | 28.3 | 28.3 |
| ROIC (EBIT) | 61.8 | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| ROIC ost tax | 54.9 | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | |
| ROE (UBS) | 19.0 | 27.8 | NM 26.4 | 26.9 | 54.6 | 80.2 | 74.2 | 70.5 |
| Capital structure & Covera e | (x) 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Net debt / EBITDA | (1.8) | (1.6) | (1.9) | (2.2) | (1.2) | (0.8) | (1.0) | (1.1) |
| Net debt / total equity % | (43.6) | (50.1) | (57.3) | (64.9) | (68.5) | (65.1) | (79.8) | (83.1) |
| Net debt / (net debt + total equity) | % (77.3) | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| Net debt/EV % | (14.3) | (10.5) | (10.8) | (4.5) | (6.1) | (8.4) | (12.2) | (16.8) |
| Ca ex / de reciation % | 51.2 | 65.8 | 65.3 | 80.2 | 68.0 | 70.4 | 73.4 | 76.6 |
| Ca ex / revenue % | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| EBIT / net interest | - 0.6 | - 0.8 | - | - | - | - 1.3 | - | - |
| Dividend cover (UBS) | 123.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | ||
| Div. ayout ratio (UBS) % | 163.8 | 80.9 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | |
| Revenues by division (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Others | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 689,687 | 1,260,282 | 2,116,057 | 2,437,730 | 2,739,147 |
| Total | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 689,687 | 1,260,282 | 2,116,057 | 2,437,730 | 2,739,147 |
| EBIT (UBS) by division (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| Core | 71,800 | 102,412 | 103,470 | 115,531 | 318,120 | 653,361 | 772,839 | 866,867 0 |
| Others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 71,800 | 102,412 | 103,470 | 115,531 | 318,120 | 653,361 | 772,839 | 866,867 |
Source: Com any accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use re orted figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.
Forecast returns
| Forecast rice a reciation | 86.5% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 1.5% |
| Forecast stock return | 88.0% |
| Market return assum tion | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 81.6% |
Company Description
MediaTek is a leading integrated circuit (IC) design com any in Taiwan, focusing on solutions from the edge to the cloud, a lications for its roduct offerings range from smart hones, smart homes and AI PCs to high- erformance com uting, automotive, and AI data centers.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our rice target for MediaTek is based on a target PE methodology.
Fabless integrated circuit (IC) design houses face a variety of uncertainties, including ra idly changing technology, end-market demand, com etition, em loyee turnover and foundry wafer costs. They are also vulnerable to legal dis utes over intellectual ro erty rights. In addition, MediaTek is ex osed to otential rice com etition in handset SoC, TV SoC, etc. Downside risks include slower-than-ex ected market share gains and a weaker-thanex ected demand recovery.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research ublishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' res onses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a roduct known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a articular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For revious res onses lease make reference to (i) revious UBS Global Research re orts; and (ii) where no a licable research re ort was ublished that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at htt s://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales re resentative for access to the re ort or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated re ort which contains all res onses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales re resentative for details and ricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
MediaTek Inc.
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to im rove or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to im rove or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been im roving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next com any EPS u date likely to lead to: (1 = negative sur rise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = ositive sur rise vs consensus ex ectations, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal u side or downside risk to earnings, 5 = u side skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an u coming catalyst for the com any over the next three months? | Positive Catalyst |
| 9. Is there an actual or a roximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or a roximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |