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原始內容
First Read
Accton Technology Corporation GM headwind should be lifted from Q426E
Revenue growth remains on track despite component consignment transition
e met with Accton earlier this week. Management remains confident that both Sept. and Q426F sales will increase sequentially, supported by strong demand for 800G switches and the ramp-up of AI cards (i.e. Trainium 3), despite the transition of certain components (memory and PCB) to a consignment model. e estimate the consignment shift reduced Aug. sales by ~5% and now forecast Q326E sales of NT$122.5 bn, up 28% QoQ (vs prior +30% QoQ). Accton noted it had prepaid for the higher-cost components on behalf of customers in the recent months to secure supply availability, but discussion regarding the reimbursement terms remain ongoing. Given the timing mismatch, its conservative accounting approach, and a higher sales mix from AI card, we expect Q326E GM to decline 1.4 ppt QoQ to 18.3%, while OPM should remain relatively resilient on operating leverage. e forecast Q326E EPS of NT$25.39, up 29% QoQ.
GM recover likel from Q426E with higher content from liquid cooling
e forecast Q426E sales growth of 3% QoQ, supported by continued strength in 800G switches and the ongoing ramp of Trainium 3. e expect one of the Trainium 3 models will migrate from air cooled to liquid-cooled design, which carry ~20% higher ASP and better GM due to increased design complexity. To strength its competitive positioning and capture more value add, Accton is expanding its in-house manufacturing capabilities for the liquid-cooling components at its Malaysia facility. e expect liquidcooling adoption to accelerate across both Trainium 3 and next-gen Trainium 4, for which we believe all models will adopt liquid cooling, given better heat dissipation, along with improving quality/yield for liquid cooling components.
Multiple drivers supporting 2027E growth
e see several catalysts supporting continued growth into 2027E. Key drivers include: (1) further Trainium 3 ramp with higher ASP for liquid cooling, (2) sustained 800G switch demand with adoption of new platforms based on Marvell and Spectrum chipsets, (3) migration to 1.6T switch, and (4) increasing contribution from Optical Switch. e expect its AI card business will grow ~50% YoY in 2027E, after ~45% growth in 2026E, while revenue contribution from social media customer to increase from low-teens % of sales this year to mid-teens % in 2027E. Beyond existing customers, it is engaging with additional CSPs for potential 2027 pilot and the L11 server rack has started initial shipments in 2026, which should see more contribution in 2027E.
Valuation:Reiterate Bu with PT of NT$3,688
e lower 2026E EPS by 2% but raise 2027-28E EPS by 2-3% to reflect the temporary GM headwind offset by higher contribution from liquid cooling AI card business. e retain Buy rating with PT of NT$3,688, based on 26x average 2027-28E PE. e believe recent concern on component shortages and lower margin on higher component cost is overdone as we believe Accton's GM should gradually recover from Q426E.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 84,188 | 110,425 | 248,320 | 414,336 | 570,275 | 774,038 | 929,009 | 1,089,130 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 11,501 | 13,601 | 32,135 | 60,477 | 84,373 | 117,624 | 141,717 | 167,290 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 8,920 | 12,000 | 26,304 | 48,670 | 67,404 | 94,759 | 114,146 | 134,470 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 15.99 | 21.49 | 47.06 | 87.08 | 120.60 | 169.54 | 204.23 | 240.59 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 7.50 | 9.99 | 11.00 | 15.00 | 52.25 | 78.39 | 127.16 | 153.17 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 23,356 | 24,859 | 50,613 | 65,367 | 87,284 | 112,936 | 113,658 | 170,417 |
| Profitabilit /valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin % | 13.7 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 15.4 |
| ROIC (EBIT) % | 241.0 | 384.6 | >500 | >500 | 279.2 | 230.3 | 166.9 | 163.7 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 16.3 | 18.5 | 12.7 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.1 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 24.5 | 25.0 | 17.9 | 21.3 | 15.4 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 7.7 |
| Equit FCF (UBS) ield % | 7.3 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 13.7 |
| Dividend ield (net) % | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 8.3 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 1,855.00 on 18-Sep-2026
Equities
Taiwan
Communications Technology
12-month rating
12m price target Bu NT$3,688.00
Price (18 Sep 2026)
NT$1,855
RIC: 2345.T BBG: 2345 TT
Trading data and ke metrics
52-wk range
Market cap.
NT$2,750.00-904.00
NT$1,041b/US$32.7b
Shares o/s
561m (ORD)
Free float
88%
Avg. dail volume ('000)
3,241
Avg. dail value (m)
NT$7,202.2
Common s/h equit (12/26E)
NT$89.9b
P/BV (12/26E)
11.5x
Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E)
NM
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (TWD) | From | To | % ch | Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/26E | 89.16 | 87.08 | -2 | 86.86 |
| 12/27E | 116.65 | 120.60 | 3 | 117.83 |
| 12/28E | 166.80 | 169.54 | 2 | 164.99 |
Jerr Su
Analyst jerry.su@ubs.com +886-28-722 7306
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
Figure 1: UBS vs. consensus in Q326-Q426E and 2026-28E
| (NT$m) | Q126 - Actual | Q226 - Actual | Q326E - UBSe | Q326E - UBSe prior | Q326E - VA | Q426E - UBSe | Q426E - UBSe prior | Q426E - VA | 2025 - Actual | 2026E - UBSe | 2026E - UBSe prior | 2026E - VA | 2027E - UBSe | 2027E - UBSe prior | 2027E - VA | 2028E - UBSe | 2028E - UBSe prior | 2028E - VA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 70,121 | 95,538 | 122,496 | 124,229 | 120,735 | 126,182 | 125,000 | 131,156 | 248,320 | 414,336 | 414,888 | 417,550 | 570,275 | 538,731 | 558,151 | 774,038 | 739,574 | 767,248 |
| - QoQ / YoY | -2.6% | 36.2% | 28.2% | 30.0% | 26.4% | 3.0% | 30.8% | 8.6% | 124.9% | 66.9% | 67.1% | 68.2% | 37.6% | 29.8% | 33.7% | 35.7% | 37.3% | 37.5% |
| Gross profit | 13,701 | 18,823 | 22,432 | 24,048 | 23,091 | 23,675 | 23,639 | 25,168 | 44,886 | 78,630 | 80,211 | 80,782 | 107,657 | 103,137 | 109,979 | 147,312 | 142,426 | 153,982 |
| - Gross margin | 19.5% | 19.7% | 18.3% | 19.4% | 19.1% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 19.2% | 18.1% | 19.0% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 18.9% | 19.1% | 19.7% | 19.0% | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| Operating profit | 10,049 | 14,331 | 17,520 | 18,892 | 17,912 | 18,577 | 18,439 | 19,545 | 32,135 | 60,477 | 61,712 | 61,837 | 84,373 | 81,242 | 87,002 | 117,624 | 115,206 | 123,315 |
| - OP margin | 14.3% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 15.6% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 16.1% |
| Non-Op | 313 | 237 | 94 | 230 | 186 | 152 | 224 | 190 | 782 | 796 | 1,004 | 925 | 403 | 772 | 481 | 1,658 | 2,140 | 459 |
| Pre-tax profit | 10,362 | 14,568 | 17,614 | 19,122 | 18,098 | 18,729 | 18,663 | 19,735 | 32,917 | 61,273 | 62,715 | 62,763 | 84,776 | 82,014 | 87,484 | 119,282 | 117,346 | 123,774 |
| Tax | -2,029 | -3,521 | -3,435 | -3,729 | -3,715 | -3,652 | -3,639 | -4,000 | -6,611 | -12,637 | -12,918 | -13,266 | -17,412 | -16,858 | -18,052 | -24,563 | -24,162 | -25,841 |
| - Tax rate | 20% | 24% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| Net profit | 8,341 | 11,053 | 14,189 | 15,403 | 14,383 | 15,087 | 15,034 | 15,735 | 26,342 | 48,670 | 49,831 | 49,496 | 67,404 | 65,196 | 69,432 | 94,759 | 93,224 | 97,932 |
| EPS (NT$) | 14.92 | 19.78 | 25.39 | 27.56 | 23.85 | 26.99 | 26.90 | 25.22 | 47.13 | 87.08 | 89.16 | 83.77 | 120.60 | 116.65 | 115.77 | 169.54 | 166.80 | 145.77 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 2: Accton's annual P&L summar
| Ticker Share outstanding (mn) - Year | 2025 | 2345.TW 558.9 - 2026E | Current Price (NT$) Market cap (NT$ bn) - 2027E | Current Price (NT$) Market cap (NT$ bn) - 2028E | 2029E | $1,855 $1,037 - 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $248,320 | $414,336 | $570,275 | $774,038 | $929,009 | $1,089,130 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 66.9% | 37.6% | 35.7% | 20.0% | 17.2% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $44,886 | $78,630 | $107,657 | $147,312 | $176,754 | $206,818 |
| GM (%) | 18.1% | 19.0% | 18.9% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $32,135 | $60,477 | $84,373 | $117,624 | $141,717 | $167,290 |
| OPM (%) | 12.9% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 15.3% | 15.4% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $26,342 | $48,670 | $67,404 | $94,759 | $114,146 | $134,470 |
| EPS (NT$) | $47.13 | $87.08 | $120.60 | $169.54 | $204.23 | $240.59 |
| EPS growth (%) | 85% | 38% | 41% | 20% | 18% | |
| P/E (x) | 39.4 | 21.3 | 15.4 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 7.7 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 0.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% |
| P/B (x) | 18.0 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| ROE (%) | 46% | 54% | 53% | 53% | 51% | 50% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Data as of 18 Sep 2026.
Figure 3: Accton's annual and quarterl forecast summar J
| Quarters | Q125 | Q225 | Q325 | Q425 | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $42,751 | $60,605 | $72,947 | $72,018 | $70,121 | $95,538 | $122,496 | $126,182 | $110,425 | $248,320 | $414,336 | $570,275 | $774,038 |
| -- QoQ Growth (%) | 9.7% | 41.8% | 20.4% | -1.3% | -2.6% | 36.2% | 28.2% | 3.0% | |||||
| -- YoY Growth (%) | 126.8% | 148.3% | 158.7% | 84.8% | 64.0% | 57.6% | 67.9% | 75.2% | 31.2% | 124.9% | 66.9% | 37.6% | 35.7% |
| Gross profit | $8,604 | $10,855 | $12,518 | $12,910 | $13,701 | $18,823 | $22,432 | $23,675 | $22,778 | $44,886 | $78,630 | $107,657 | $147,312 |
| -- Gross Margin (%) | 20.1% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 19.5% | 19.7% | 18.3% | 18.8% | 20.6% | 18.1% | 19.0% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| Operating Profit | $5,905 | $8,116 | $9,001 | $9,112 | $10,049 | $14,331 | $17,520 | $18,577 | $13,601 | $32,135 | $60,477 | $84,373 | $117,624 |
| -- OP Margin (%) | 13.8% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 15.2% |
| Non-op | $376 | ($1,503) | $707 | $1,202 | $313 | $237 | $94 | $152 | $1,532 | $782 | $796 | $403 | $1,658 |
| Pre-tax profit (NT$ mn) | $6,282 | $6,613 | $9,708 | $10,314 | $10,362 | $14,568 | $17,614 | $18,729 | $15,134 | $32,917 | $61,273 | $84,776 | $119,282 |
| Tax | $1,160 | $1,596 | $1,888 | $1,966 | $2,029 | $3,521 | $3,435 | $3,652 | $3,135 | $6,611 | $12,637 | $17,412 | $24,563 |
| -- tax rate (%) | 18.5% | 24.1% | 19.5% | 19.1% | 19.6% | 24.2% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 20.7% | 20.1% | 20.6% | 20.5% | 20.6% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $5,127 | $5,032 | $7,827 | $8,356 | $8,341 | $11,053 | $14,189 | $15,087 | $12,000 | $26,342 | $48,670 | $67,404 | $94,759 |
| -- QoQ Growth (%) | 13.3% | -1.9% | 55.5% | 6.8% | -0.2% | 32.5% | 28.4% | 6.3% | |||||
| -- YoY Growth (%) | 128.5% | 94.9% | 195.3% | 84.7% | 62.7% | 119.7% | 81.3% | 80.5% | -34.5% | -119.5% | -84.8% | -38.5% | -40.6% |
| EPS (NT$) | $9.17 | $9.00 | $14.00 | $14.95 | $14.92 | $19.78 | $25.39 | $26.99 | $21.49 | $47.13 | $87.08 | $120.60 | $169.54 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Figure 4: Accton's P/E
Source: LSEG
Figure 5: Accton's FINI ownership
Source: TEJ
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 98.8% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 0.8% |
| Forecast stock return | 99.6% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast e cess return | 93.3% |
Compan Description
Founded in 1988, Accton specialises in ODM/OEM solutions for data center switches, AI accelerator cards, enterprise/ODM switches, carrier access/telecom and others. Accton is one of the largest vendors of white-box and OCP-compliant switches globally (by sales). Leveraging deep expertise in high-speed switching, system integration and rapid time-tomarket, it has secured long-term partnerships with major cloud service providers.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
e value Accton using PE methodology.
Key risks include: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for data center switches; 2) slower ramp of 800G and 1.6T data center switches; 3) market share loss in the AI accelerator card business; and 4) softer gross margin than expected.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
Accton Technolog Corporation
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the ne t si months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the ne t si months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the ne t company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus e pectations, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the ne t earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the ne t three months? | Positive Catalyst |
| 9. Is there an actual or appro imate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or appro imate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |