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報告_UBS_巨大9921_20260808

更新 2026-08-10

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First Read

Giant Manufacturing

Q226 beat on stronger gross margin; positive sales outlook intact

Q: How did the results compare with expectations?

In Q226, Giant reported net profit up 234% YoY, 126%/28% above the UBS/consensus estimates. The beat was mainly due to a higher-than-expected gross margin.

Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results?

In Q226, sales rose 6% YoY. Sales in China were up 13% YoY, ending its declining trend of the past six consecutive quarters. Sales contraction in Europe/US narrowed to 4%/15%. E-bike sales also resumed growth at 20% YoY. Newly launched city e-bikes in Europe were well received and drove strong volume growth. Gross margin expanded 4.4ppt YoY on new model launches and a higher portion of own-brand sales (higher profitability than OEM orders). Opex came in higher than we expected due to marketing expenses for new product launches, legal fees for its WRO (Withhold Release Order) and sports sponsorships (earlier this year vs. in Q3 previously).

Q: Has the company's guidance/outlook changed?

No. Management kept its 2026 top-line guidance unchanged at negative lowsingle digits, with the operating margin at 1-3% despite the strong Q226 results. Management continues to see a positive trend in Europe/China early in Q326 and initial signs of a recovery in the US. However, management is keeping conservative guidance, considering macro risks.

Q: How do we expect investors to react?

We think the market is likely to react positively to the results beat. We raise our 2026E earnings 47% to factor in the Q226 results beat and better-than-expected profitability. We reiterate our Buy rating, based on our positive sector view, and we most prefer Giant among our covered stocks in this sector. Our price target remains unchanged at NT$126, based on 17x 2027E PE.

Equities Equities Equities Equities
Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan
12-month rating 12-month rating 12-month rating Buy
12m price target 12m price target 12m price target NT$126.00
Price (07 Aug 2026) Price (07 Aug 2026) Price (07 Aug 2026) NT$92.40
RIC: 9921.TW BBG: 9921 TT RIC: 9921.TW BBG: 9921 TT RIC: 9921.TW BBG: 9921 TT RIC: 9921.TW BBG: 9921 TT
Trading data and key metrics Trading data and key metrics Trading data and key metrics
Market cap. Market cap. Market cap. NT$36.2b/US$1.12b
Shares o/s Shares o/s Shares o/s 392m (ORD)
Free float Free float Free float 67%
Avg. daily volume ('000) Avg. daily volume ('000) Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,476
Avg. daily value (m) Avg. daily value (m) Avg. daily value (m) NT$192.9
Common s/h equity (12/26E) Common s/h equity (12/26E) Common s/h equity (12/26E) NT$34.4b
P/BV (12/26E) P/BV (12/26E) P/BV (12/26E) 1.1x
Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM
EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$)
From To %ch Cons.
12/26E 1.80 2.64 47 4.27
12/27E 7.39 7.43 1 6.63
12/28E 9.31 9.32 0 7.62

Ally Chen

Analyst ally.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7347

Megan Li

Analyst megan.li@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7393

Highlights (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenues 76,954 71,279 60,254 57,057 63,434 66,918 70,500 74,340
EBIT (UBS) 4,709 1,858 1,081 1,677 4,092 5,111 5,677 6,275
Net earnings (UBS) 3,401 1,264 723 1,035 2,914 3,656 4,091 4,559
EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) 8.68 3.22 1.84 2.64 7.43 9.32 10.43 11.63
DPS (net) (NT$) 7.80 7.80 7.80 1.80 2.58 7.25 4.85 5.43
Net (debt) / cash (9,974) (6,583) 2,404 1,130 2,987 4,321 6,850 9,424
Profitability/valuation 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
EBIT (UBS) margin% 6.1 2.6 1.8 2.9 6.5 7.6 8.1 8.4
ROIC (EBIT)% 9.8 4.2 2.8 4.8 11.3 14.1 15.8 17.5
EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x 12.9 20.5 14.1 9.1 5.8 4.9 4.5 3.9
P/E (UBS, diluted) x 22.5 62.5 64.0 35.0 12.4 9.9 8.9 7.9
Equity FCF (UBS) yield% 11.8 13.7 23.7 (0.6) 6.7 11.0 11.6 12.3
Dividend yield (net)% 4.0 3.9 6.6 1.9 2.8 7.8 5.2 5.9

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 92.40 on 07-Aug-2026

Figure 1: Q226 results comparison

(NT$mn) Q226A Q226E Diff. (%) Q126A QoQ (%) Q225A YoY (%) Consensus Diff. (%)
Sales 16,665 16,664 0% 12,524 33% 15,754 6% 16,240 3%
Gross profits 4,140 3,414 21% 2,359 76% 3,220 29% 3,403 22%
Operating profits 1,000 464 115% -191 n.m. 438 128% 704 42%
Pre-tax profits 996 480 107% -170 n.m. 358 178% 653 52%
Net income 635 281 126% -200 n.m. 190 234% 496 28%
EPS (NT$) 1.62 0.72 126% -0.51 n.m. 0.48 234% 1.25 30%
Operating ratio (%) Diff. (ppt) Diff. (ppt) QoQ (ppt) QoQ (ppt) YoY (ppt) Diff. (ppt)
Gross margin 24.8% 20.5% 4.4 18.8% 6.0 20.4% 4.4 21.0% 3.9
Operating margin 6.0% 2.8% 3.2 -1.5% 7.5 2.8% 3.2 4.3% 1.7
Pre-tax margin 6.0% 2.9% 3.1 -1.4% 7.3 2.3% 3.7 4.0% 2.0
Net margin 3.8% 1.7% 2.1 -1.6% 5.4 1.2% 2.6 3.1% 0.8

Source: Refinitiv, company data, UBS estimates

Figure 2: Summary of our earnings estimate changes

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(NT$mn) New Old Chg% New Old Chg% New Old Chg%
Sales 57,057 58,126 -1.8 63,434 63,837 -0.6 66,918 67,326 -0.6
Gross Profit 12,707 11,876 7.0 14,030 14,680 -4.4 15,400 15,989 -3.7
Operating Profit 1,677 1,129 48.6 4,092 4,081 0.3 5,111 5,105 0.1
Pre-tax Income 1,751 1,192 46.8 4,201 4,178 0.6 5,272 5,261 0.2
Net Income 1,035 705 46.8 2,914 2,898 0.6 3,656 3,649 0.2
EPS (NT$) 2.64 1.80 46.8 7.43 7.39 0.6 9.32 9.31 0.2
Operating Ratios (%) New Old Chg (ppt) New Old Chg (ppt) New Old Chg (ppt)
Gross Margin 22.3 20.4 1.8 22.1 23.0 -0.9 23.0 23.7 -0.7
Operating Margin 2.9 1.9 1.0 6.5 6.4 0.1 7.6 7.6 0.1
Pre-tax Margin 3.1 2.1 1.0 6.6 6.5 0.1 7.9 7.8 0.1
Net Margin 1.8 1.2 0.6 4.6 4.5 0.1 5.5 5.4 0.0

Source: UBS estimates

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 36.4%
Forecast dividend yield 1.9%
Forecast stock return 38.3%
Market return assumption 6.3%
Forecast excess return 32.0%

Company Description

Giant Manufacturing (Giant) is the world's largest bicycle manufacturer by volume. It was established in 1972 and was listed on Taiwan's main board in 1994. Giant focuses on mid- to high-end bicycle models, with the original brand manufacturing (OBM) business making up 61% of sales and the rest coming from original design manufacturing (ODM) clients as of Q125.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our price target is based on a PE multiple.

The key downside risks are: 1) a global economic slowdown impacting end-user demand; 2) foreign exchange risk; 3) a rise in raw material prices; 4) unfavourable weather; and 5) lowerthan-expected popularity of e-bike products.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

Giant Manufacturing

Question Response
1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) 4
2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) 3
3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) 4
4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) 3
5. What's driving the difference?
6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) 3
7. What's driving the difference?
8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months?
9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst?
10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date?
11. What is the catalyst?

Required Disclosures

This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".

For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 07 August 2026 05:15 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.