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報告_UBS_台積電2330_20261015

更新 2026-10-16
#來源/券商報告#公司/台積電#產業/晶圓代工

PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_台積電2330_20261015_original.pdf

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_UBS_台積電2330_20261015_001.png 50KB 真資料圖 Figure 8：2004–2026 TSMC P/E、SOX P/E 與相對值（TSMC Rel to SOX P/E，截至 2026-09-30）
報告_UBS_台積電2330_20261015_003.png 49KB 真資料圖 Figure 9：2005–2026 TSMC P/E、TAIEX P/E 與相對值
報告_UBS_台積電2330_20261015_005.png 55KB 真資料圖 UBS 對 TSMC 目標價沿革（NT$，2023-08 至 2026-10，目前 NT$3,650，評等 Buy）

原始內容

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Full speed on capacity expansion, backed by a strong US commitment

Cloud AI demand strengthening, with no signs of slowing

TSMC management remains optimistic of a stronger multi-year Cloud A mega-trend. ts optimism is based on its prudent and comprehensive assessment of data centre construction, power shell build up, component supply, and the financial situation of Cloud service operators. ts capex target was retained at US$60-64bn in 2026, implying a meaningful uptick to US$19.4-23.4bn in Q4 vs US$40.6bn in 9M26. Our recent research highlighted TSMC is further accelerating expansion across N3/N2/A14, and could lift capex to US$90bn in 2027E and US$105bn in 2028E.

tronger commitment to U expansion

TSMC guided the overseas dilution on gross margin to rise to 3-4% in 2027 from a narrowing to 2% (vs. prior 2-3%) in 2026 given the accelerating expansion especially in the US. The second fab in Arizona should start mass production for N3 in Q327, slightly earlier than prior plan. Management also stated that it's in talk with SpaceX/Terafab on potential collaboration, with key principle being to operate the fabs by TSMC. As what we wrote recently, TSMC is also evaluating the possibility to expand outside Arizona, with Texas being an option. The greater ambition to expand global footprint and support reshoring is key in solidifying TSMC's competitive positioning, in our view.

Better Q4 sales guidance, slightly down GM guidance not concerning

Q3 EPS of NT$29.43 was above LSEG consensus of NT$28.67, mostly due to higher sales and OPM of 58.7%. Q3 gross margin of 66.4% was a bit below expectation of 67% into earnings, given N2 dilution. Q4 sales is guided to grow 14% QoQ at mid point, slightly ahead of expectation of ~10% QoQ into earnings, driving full year sales guidance in USD to grow 44% YoY. TSMC guided greater dilution from N2 and overseas expansion, which lowers Q4 GM 40bps QoQ to 66.0% at the mid point of guidance. We view TSMC's investment case on strong growth at sustainable margins with good support in 2027 (UBS GMs up 10bps YoY at 66.7% from 66.6% in 2026) with price hikes to pass on higher costs.

Valuation: maintain Buy and target of NT$3,650

We raise 2026-28E EPS by 2-3% to reflect higher sales even with slightly lower gross margin assumptions. Our new 2028E EPS is 10% above consensus pre-earnings. We view resilient risk/reward for TSMC stock at 16x 2027E PE vs 36% earnings growth in 2027 based on UBSe, and expect the stock to steadily outperform the broader tech sector at least through early 2027, assuming the market volatility persists. Reiterate Buy rating. Our price target is based on 20x 2027-28E PE with a 26% long-term earnings CAGR.

Equities

Taiwan

Semiconductors

12-month rating

12m price target Buy NT$3,650.00

Price (15 Oct 2026)

NT$2,440

RIC: 2330.TWBBG: 2330 TT

Trading data and key metrics

52-wk range NT$2,585.00-1,375.00

Market cap.

NT$63,275b/US$1,952b

hares o/s

25,933m (ORD)

Free float

87%

Avg. daily volume ('000)

28,434

Avg. daily value (m)

NT$68,312.5

Common s/h equity (12/26E)

NT$7667b

P/BV (12/26E)

8.3x

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E)

NM

EP (UB , diluted) (TWD) From To % ch Cons.
12/26E 109.06 112.05 3 108.51
12/27E 148.98 152.23 2 145.29
12/28E 202.52 205.81 2 188.02

unny Lin

Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346

Randy Abrams

Analyst

randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338

Nicolas Gaudois

Analyst

nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com +65-6495 5148

Highlights (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenues 2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,614,326 7,921,336 10,578,173 12,948,055 15,358,435
EBIT (UB ) 921,466 1,322,053 1,936,092 3,308,636 4,649,402 6,275,612 7,698,664 9,110,458
Net earnings (UB ) 838,498 1,173,268 1,717,883 2,905,391 3,947,441 5,336,884 6,595,750 7,884,988
EP (UB , diluted) (NT$) 32.34 45.24 66.24 112.05 152.23 205.81 254.36 304.08
DP (net) (NT$) 13.00 17.00 22.00 29.50 40.50 53.00 66.00 76.00
Net (debt) / cash 764,451 1,435,557 2,075,442 2,864,031 3,896,841 5,665,826 8,790,836 13,182,484
Profitability/valuation 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
EBIT (UB ) margin % 42.6 45.7 50.8 58.9 58.7 59.3 59.5 59.3
ROIC (EBIT) % 38.6 49.6 65.1 84.4 83.0 81.2 78.7 79.2
EV/EBITDA (UB core) x 9.1 11.0 10.8 14.7 10.4 7.5 5.8 4.6
P/E (UB , diluted) x 16.8 19.7 17.6 21.8 16.0 11.9 9.6 8.0
Equity FCF (UB ) yield % 2.1 3.8 3.3 1.7 2.8 4.4 7.1 9.5
Dividend yield (net) % 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.1

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 2,440.00 on 15-Oct-2026 18:57:40 CST

Earnings forecasts

Figure 1: T MC's operating data

Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Capacity (WPQ/Y, kpcs 8" eq.) Sequential change (%) 10,495 0% 10,663 2% 10,663 0% 10,798 1% 10,859 1% 11,095 2% 11,196 1% 11,331 1% 36,849 6% 38,233 4% 40,528 6% 42,620 5% 44,480 4% 47,349 6%
Shipment (WPQ/Y, kpcs 8" eq.) Sequential change (%) 9,392 5% 9,756 4% 10,071 3% 11,400 13% 11,438 0% 11,753 3% 12,211 4% 12,284 1% 27,005 -21% 29,050 8% 33,802 16% 40,618 20% 47,685 17% 54,226 14%
Utilization rate (%) 89% 91% 94% 106% 105% 106% 109% 108% 73% 76% 83% 95% 107% 115%
ASP (US$) 3,263 3,483 3,931 4,011 4,117 4,287 4,498 4,739 2,235 2,694 3,112 3,691 4,417 5,177
Sequential change (%) 0% 7% 13% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 14.8% 20.5% 15.5% 18.6% 19.7% 17.2%
FX rate (NT$) 31.6 31.6 32.0 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.2 32.1 31.1 31.8 31.8 31.8
Other Revenue (NT$m) 165,991 196,673 228,332 261,702 269,553 288,421 323,112 342,499 279,218 379,846 536,501 852,698 1,223,585 1,651,445
Total Revenue (NT$m) 1,134,103 1,270,380 1,494,243 1,715,599 1,767,067 1,890,762 2,069,663 2,193,843 2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,614,326 7,921,336 10,578,173
Sequential change (%) 8% 12% 18% 15% 3% 7% 9% 6% -5% 34% 32% 47% 41% 34%
Capex (US$m) 11,046 15,691 13,847 22,397 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 30,425 29,760 40,739 63,000 90,000 105,000
Capex/revenue (%) 31% 39% 30% 42% 40% 38% 35% 33% 44% 33% 33% 36% 36% 32%
Depreciation (NT$mn) 5,237 6,283 6,886 7,162 7,520 8,225 8,861 9,397 16,736 20,843 21,638 25,533 34,004 45,740
Gross margin (%) 66.2% 67.7% 66.4% 66.0% 66.4% 67.0% 66.5% 66.6% 54.4% 56.1% 59.9% 66.6% 66.7% 67.1%
Operating margin (%) 58.1% 60.3% 58.7% 58.7% 58.8% 59.2% 58.4% 58.5% 42.6% 45.7% 50.8% 58.9% 58.7% 59%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 2: Q326 earnings comparison

(NT$m) Actual Guidance Q326 - VA Q326 - Diff. vs VA Q326 - LSEG Diff. vs LSEG UBSe Q226 - Actual Q226 - QoQ Q325 - Actual Q325 - YoY
Revenue 1,494,243 NT$1427.20-1265.6bn (FX: NT$32.0/US$) 1,461,784 2% 1,456,819 3% 1,462,634 1,270,380 18% 989,918 51%
Revenue (US$m) 46,270 US$44.6-45.8bn 45,265 2% n.m. 45,707 35,898 29% 30,070 54%
Gross profit 992,379 972,779 2% 968,908 2% 980,859 860,311 15% 588,543 69%
- Gross margin 66.4% 65.0-67.0% 66.5% -13bps 66.5% -9bps 67.1% 67.7% -131bps 59.5% 696bps
Operating profit 876,445 853,142 3% 848,353 3% 861,775 766,603 14% 500,685 75%
- OP margin 58.7% 56.0-58.0% 58.4% 29bps 58.2% 42bps 58.9% 60.3% -169bps 50.6% 808bps
Non-op profit 34,594 29,454 17% 36,768 -6% 22,718 95,827 -64% 24,684 40%
Pre-tax profit 911,039 882,596 3% 885,121 3% 884,493 862,430 6% 525,369 73%
Tax -147,698 -150,093 -2% -143,161 3% -145,941 -155,649 -5% -73,614 101%
- Tax rate 16.2% 17.0% -79bps 16.2% 4bps 16.5% 18.0% -184bps 14.0% 220bps
Net profit 763,341 733,358 4% 741,960 3% 738,332 706,562 8% 452,301 69%
EPS (NT$) 29.43 28.65 3% 28.67 3% 28.47 27.25 8% 17.44 69%

Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, LSEG, UBS estimates

Figure 3: Revenue mix by platform

Revenue mix by platform Q326 Q226 Q126 Q425 Q325 Q225 Q125 Q424 Q324 Q224 Q124 Q423 Q323
Smartphone 21% 22% 26% 32% 30% 27% 28% 35% 34% 33% 38% 43% 39%
HPC 68% 66% 61% 55% 57% 60% 59% 53% 51% 52% 46% 43% 42%
IoT 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 9%
Auto 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Digital consumer electronics 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Others 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%

Source: Company data, UBS

Figure 4: Wafer revenue mix by technology

Wafer revenue mix by technology Q326 Q226 Q126 Q425 Q325 Q225 Q125 Q424 Q324 Q224 Q124 Q423 Q323
2nm 8% 3%
3nm 33% 30% 25% 28% 23% 24% 22% 26% 20% 15% 9% 15% 6%
5nm 28% 33% 36% 35% 37% 36% 36% 34% 32% 35% 37% 35% 37%
7nm 10% 11% 13% 14% 14% 14% 15% 14% 17% 17% 19% 17% 16%
16/20nm 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 10%
28nm 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 8% 8% 7% 10%
40/45nm 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6%
65nm 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6%
90nm-0.13um 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%
≥0.15um 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Source: Company data, UBS

Figure 5: Revisions to our earnings estimates

(NT$ mn) New - 2026E New - 2027E New - 2028E Old - 2026E Old - 2027E Old - 2028E Change - 2026E Change - 2027E Change - 2028E
Revenue 5,614,326 47% 7,921,336 10,578,173 5,476,015 44% 7,702,256 41% 10,318,264 34% 3% 3% 3%
- YoY chg Revenue (US$ mn) - YoY chg 176,868 45% 41% 249,099 41% 34% 332,647 34% 172,213 41% 240,695 40% 322,446 34% 3% 3% 3%
Gross profit - Gross margin 3,736,635 66.6% 5,279,963 66.7% 7,098,535 67.1% 3,670,122 67.0% 5,179,398 67.2% 7,000,469 67.8% 2% 2% 1%
Operating profit - Operating margin 3,308,636 58.9% 4,649,402 58.7% 6,275,612 59.3% 3,234,125 59.1% 4,555,628 59.1% 6,185,603 59.9% 2% 2% 1%
Net profit - Net margin 2,905,391 51.7% 3,947,441 49.8% 5,336,884 50.5% 2,827,838 51.6% 3,863,186 50.2% 5,251,406 50.9% 3% 2% 2%
EPS (NT$) 112.05 152.23 205.81 109.06 148.98 202.52 3% 2% 2%
- YoY chg 69% 36% 35% 65% 37% 36%

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 6: UB earnings estimates vs. consensus

(NT$m) UBSe - 2026E UBSe - 2027E UBSe - 2028E Consensus - 2026F Consensus - 2027F Consensus - 2028F Difference - 2026E Difference - 2027E Difference - 2028E
Revenue 5,614,326 7,921,336 10,578,173 5,473,474 7,565,728 9,527,866 3% 5% 11%
- YoY chg 47% 41% 34% 44% 38% 26%
Gross profit 3,736,635 5,279,963 7,098,535 3,648,290 5,075,511 6,368,013 2% 4% 11%
- Gross margin 66.6% 66.7% 67.1% 66.7% 67.1% 66.8%
Operating profit 3,308,636 4,649,402 6,275,612 3,210,186 4,484,151 5,639,038 3% 4% 11%
- Operating margin 58.9% 58.7% 59.3% 58.6% 59.3% 59.2%
Net profit 2,905,391 3,947,441 5,336,884 2,803,055 3,838,392 4,855,556 4% 3% 10%
- Net margin 51.7% 49.8% 50.5% 51.2% 50.7% 51.0%
EPS (NT$) 112.05 152.23 205.81 108.02 147.67 186.54 4% 3% 10%
- YoY chg 69% 36% 35% 63% 37% 26%

Source: Visible Alpha, UBS estimates

Figure 7: Earnings forecasts

(NT$ mn) 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenue 3,809,054 1,134,1031,270,3801,494,2431,715,5995,614,3261,767,067 1,890,762 2,069,6632,193,8437,921,33610,578,17312,948,05515,358,435
- YoY chg (%) 32% 35% 36% 51% 64% 47% 56% 49% 39% 28% 41% 34% 22% 19%
- QoQ chg (%) - 8% 12% 18% 15% - 3% 7% 9% 6% - - - -
Revenue (US$ mn) 122,031 35,898 40,202 46,724 53,950 176,868 55,568 59,458 65,084 68,989 249,099 332,647 407,172 482,970
- YoY chg (%) 35% 41% 34% 41% 60% 45% 55% 48% 39% 28% 41% 34% 22% 19%
- QoQ chg (%) - 6% 12% 16% 15% - 3% 7% 9% 6% - - - -
Gross profit 2,281,294 751,295 860,311 992,379 1,132,6503,736,6351,173,574 1,267,475 1,377,1121,461,8025,279,963 7,098,535 8,678,054 10,284,569
- Gross margin 59.9% 66.2% 67.7% 66.4% 66.0% 66.6% 66.4% 67.0% 66.5% 66.6% 66.7% 67.1% 67.0% 67.0%
Operating profit 1,936,092 658,966 766,603 876,445 1,006,6223,308,6361,038,795 1,118,862 1,207,9521,283,7934,649,402 6,275,612 7,698,664 9,110,458
- OP margin 50.8% 58.1% 60.3% 58.7% 58.7% 58.9% 58.8% 59.2% 58.4% 58.5% 58.7% 59.3% 59.5% 59.3%
Non-op profit 105,571 28,834 95,827 34,594 27,584 186,839 25,967 27,188 28,947 31,611 113,712 162,788 259,658 402,142
Pre-tax profit 2,041,663 687,800 862,430 911,039 1,034,2063,495,4751,064,7621,146,0501,236,8991,315,4034,763,114 6,438,400 7,958,322 9,512,599
Net profit 1,717,883 572,480 706,562 763,064 863,285 2,905,391 888,799 928,023 1,032,5341,098,0853,947,441 5,336,884 6,595,750 7,884,988
Reported EPS (NT$) 66.26 22.08 27.25 29.43 33.29 112.05 34.28 35.79 39.82 42.35 152.23 205.81 254.36 304.08
- YoY chg (%) 46% 58% 77% 69% 71% 69% 55% 31% 35% 27% 36% 35% 24% 20%
- QoQ chg (%) - 13% 23% 8% 13% - 3% 4% 11% 6% - - - -

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 8: T MC's valuation relative to OX

Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS estimates. Note: Monthly data, updated to 30/9/2026

Figure 10: T MC's 12-month forward PE (x)

Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS estimates

Figure 9: T MC's valuation relative to TAIEX

Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS estimates. Note: Monthly data, updated to 30/9/2026

Figure 11: T MC's 12-month forward P/BV (x)

Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS estimates

Taiwan emiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW)

Income tatement (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenues 2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,614,326 47.4 7,921,336 41.1 10,578,173 12,948,055 15,358,435
Gross profit 1,175,111 1,624,354 2,281,294 3,736,635 63.8 5,279,963 41.3 7,098,535 8,678,054 10,284,569
EBITDA (UB ) 1,453,657 1,984,850 2,624,188 4,120,590 57.0 5,730,724 39.1 7,730,133 9,575,148 11,409,944
Depreciation & amortisation (532,191) (662,797) (688,096) (811,954) -18.0 (1,081,322) -33.2 (1,454,522) (1,876,484) (2,299,487)
EBIT (UB 921,466 1,322,053 1,936,092 3,308,636 70.9 4,649,402 40.5 6,275,612 7,698,664 9,110,458
) Associates & investment income 4,655 4,879 5,497 4,833 -12.1 800 -83.4 800 800 800
Other non-operating income 10,704 11,125 13,868 75,953 NM 706 -99.1 706 706 706
Net interest 42,347 67,781 86,206 106,053 23.0 112,205 5.8 161,282 258,152 400,636
Exceptionals (incl goodwill) 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Pre-tax profit 979,171 1,405,839 2,041,663 3,495,475 71.2 4,763,114 36.3 6,438,400 7,958,322 9,512,599
Tax (141,404) (233,407) (326,266) (588,990) -80.5 (814,565) -38.3 (1,100,408) (1,361,465) (1,626,503)
Profit after tax dividends 837,768 1,172,432 0 1,715,397 0 2,906,485 69.4 3,948,549 35.9 5,337,992 6,596,858 7,886,096
Preference 0 836 2,486 0 (1,095) - - 0 (1,108) - -1.2 0 (1,108) 0 (1,108) 0
Minorities 730 0 0 - 0 0 (1,108) 0
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 - 5,336,884
Net earnings (local GAAP) 838,498 1,173,268 1,717,883 2,905,391 69.1 3,947,441 35.9 6,595,750 7,884,988
Net earnings (UB ) 838,498 1,173,268 1,717,883 2,905,391 69.1 3,947,441 35.9 5,336,884 6,595,750 7,884,988
Tax rate (%) 14.4 16.6 16.0 16.9 5.4 17.1 1.5 17.1 17.1 17.1
Per hare (NT$) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
EPS (UBS, diluted) EPS (local GAAP, diluted) 32.34 32.34 45.24 45.24 66.24 66.24 112.05 112.05 69.1 152.23 35.9 35.9 205.81 205.81 254.36 254.36 304.08 304.08
EPS (UBS, basic) 32.34 45.25 66.24 112.05 69.1 69.1 152.23 152.23 35.9 205.81 254.36 304.08
DPS (net) 13.00 17.00 22.00 37.3 53.00 66.00 76.00
(NT$) 1 52.86 70.80 92.77 29.50 34.1 54.5 40.50 193.93 35.3 261.91 326.73 392.76
Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) Book value per share 133.38 165.36 208.99 143.36 295.66 41.5 410.39 38.8 567.20 988.63
Average shares (diluted) 25,931 25,934 25,934 25,930 0.0 25,931 0.0 25,931 757.55 25,931 25,931
Balance heet (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/30E
Cash and equivalents 1,687,644 2,422,020 3,068,595 3,847,544 25.4 4,870,354 26.6 6,629,339 12/29E 14,125,997
Other current assets 506,388 666,332 748,536 1,480,839 97.8 1,882,464 27.1 2,536,990 9,744,349 2,991,111 3,630,432
Total current assets 2,194,033 3,088,352 3,817,131 5,328,383 39.6 6,752,817 26.7 9,166,329 12,735,460 17,756,429
Net tangible fixed assets Net intangible fixed assets 3,064,475 22,767 3,234,980 26,283 3,691,841 5,010,938 35.7 6,791,616 24,075 35.5 0.0 8,676,095 24,075 10,297,610 24,075 11,496,124 24,075
nvestments / other assets 24,953 24,075 -3.5 593,735 654,021
251,097 342,323 399,100 444,309 11.3 499,418 12.4 747,725
Total assets 5,532,371 6,691,938 7,933,024 10,807,704 36.2 14,067,926 30.2 18,460,233 23,711,166 30,024,352
Trade payables & other ST liabilities 904,290 1,204,667 1,321,094 1,800,337 36.3 2,008,655 11.6 2,202,597 2,433,232 213,198 2,623,189
Short term debt Total current liabilities 9,293 913,583 59,858 136,926 1,458,019 213,198 2,013,535 55.7 38.1 213,198 2,221,853 0.0 213,198 2,415,795 2,646,430 213,198 2,836,387
Long term debt 913,900 1,264,525 856,228 770,315 -10.0 760,315 -1.3 740,315 730,315
926,605 10.3 750,315
Other long term liabilities 221,625 177,233 157,982 311,835 97.4 398,762 0 27.9 540,931 635,153 776,459
Preferred shares Total liabilities (incl pref shares) 0 2,049,108 0 2,368,362 0 2,472,229 0 3,095,684 - 25.2 3,380,931 - 9.2 0 3,707,041 0 4,021,898 0 4,343,161
Common s/h equity 3,458,914 24,349 35,031 41,199 45,326 41.5 0.0 45,326 25,635,866
Minority interests 4,288,545 5,419,596 7,666,694 10.0 10,641,670 45,326 38.8 14,707,866 19,643,942 45,326 45,326
Total liabilities & equity 5,532,371 6,691,938 7,933,024 10,807,704 36.2 14,067,926 30.2 18,460,233 23,711,166 30,024,352
Cash Flow (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Net income (before pref divs) 838,498 1,173,268 1,717,883 2,905,391 69.1 3,947,441 35.9 5,336,884 6,595,750 7,884,988
Depreciation & amortisation 532,191 662,797 688,096 811,954 18.0 1,081,322 33.2 1,454,522 1,876,484 2,299,487
Net change in working capital 324 (129,046) (90,088) 80,200 160 (702,567) - (323,607) (93,369) 53.9 - (527,674) (156,889) (363,542) (101,756) (516,833) (155,897)
Other operating Operating cash 1,241,967 (131,163) 71,408 3,086,185 - 35.7 6,106,842 8,006,935
flow 1,826,177 2,274,976 4,611,786 49.4 9,511,746
Tangible capital expenditure (949,113) 0 (955,112) (1,271,613) 0 (1,999,809) -57.3 (2,862,000) -43.1 - (3,339,000) (3,498,000) (3,498,000)
ntangible capital expenditure 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
Net (acquisitions) & disposals Other investing (55,781) 98,774 (54,143) 144,412 (37,079) (67,076) 238,223 -80.9 45.0 0 - 0 0 0
Investing cash (906,121) 164,299 0 0 (3,339,000) 0 0
flow (864,843) (1,144,393) (1,828,662) -59.8 (2,862,000) - -56.5 (3,498,000) (3,498,000)
Equity dividends paid (291,722) 0 (363,055) 0 (466,779) 0 (622,380) -33.3 (803,904) 0 -29.2 (1,141,026) (1,478,147) 0 (1,763,403) 0
Share issues / (buybacks) 0 - 0
Other financing 18,623 (39,111) (14,014) 25,063 - - 86,928 - 246.8 142,169 94,222 141,305 (10,000)
Change in debt & pref shares Financing cash flow 68,204 (204,894) 55,866 (346,301) 40,448 (440,345) (8,849) (606,166) (10,000) (726,977) -13.0 -19.9 (10,000) (1,008,857) (10,000) (1,393,925) (1,632,098)
Cash flow inc/(dec) in cash 130,952 615,033 651,358 -37.7 -5.6 3,115,010
FX / non cash items (4,794) 119,342 690,238 (43,662) 127,591 - 1,022,810 0 57.0 -100.0 1,758,985 0 0 4,381,648 0
Balance sheet inc/(dec) in 126,159 734,375 778,949 20.5 1,022,810 3,115,010
646,575 31.3 1,758,985 4,381,648
cash

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.

Taiwan emiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW)

Valuation (x) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
P/E (local GAAP, diluted) 16.8 19.7 17.6 21.8 16.0 11.9 9.6 8.0
P/E (UBS, diluted) 16.8 19.7 17.6 21.8 16.0 11.9 9.6 8.0
P/CEPS 10.3 12.6 12.6 17.0 12.6 9.3 7.5 6.2
Equity FCF (UBS) yield % 2.1 3.8 3.3 1.7 2.8 4.4 7.1 9.5
Dividend yield (net) % 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.1
P/BV 4.1 5.4 5.6 8.3 5.9 4.3 3.2 2.5
EV/revenues (core) 6.1 7.6 7.4 NM 7.5 5.5 4.3 3.4
EV/EB TDA (UBS core) 9.1 11.0 10.8 14.7 10.4 7.5 5.8 4.6
EV/EB T (core) 14.4 16.6 14.6 18.3 12.8 9.3 7.3 5.7
EV/OpFCF (core) 9.8 12.2 11.4 18.8 11.7 8.5 6.3 4.9
EV/op. invested capital 5.6 8.2 9.5 15.5 10.7 7.6 5.7 4.5
Enterprise value (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Market cap. 14,093,810 23,107,982 30,242,408 63,275,362 63,275,362 63,275,362 63,275,362 63,275,362
Net debt (cash) (736,143) (1,100,004) (1,755,499) (2,469,736) (3,380,436) (4,781,333) (7,228,331) (10,986,660)
Buy out of minorities 24,349 35,031 41,199 45,326 45,326 45,326 45,326 45,326
Pension provisions/other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total enterprise value 13,382,016 22,043,009 28,528,108 60,850,952 59,940,252 58,539,355 56,092,357 52,334,028
Non core assets (129,442) (149,040) (172,370) (222,986) (216,399) (209,813) (203,226) (196,639)
Core enterprise value 13,252,574 21,893,968 28,355,738 60,627,965 59,723,853 58,329,542 55,889,131 52,137,389
Growth (%) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenue (4.5) 33.9 31.6 47.4 41.1 33.5 22.4 18.6
EB TDA (UBS) (6.7) 36.5 32.2 57.0 39.1 34.9 23.9 19.2
EB T (UBS) (17.8) 43.5 46.4 70.9 40.5 35.0 22.7 18.3
EPS (UBS, diluted) (17.5) 39.9 46.4 69.1 35.9 35.2 23.6 19.5
Net DPS 18.2 30.8 29.4 34.1 37.3 30.9 24.5 15.2
Margins & Profitability (%) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Gross profit margin 54.4 56.1 59.9 66.6 66.7 67.1 67.0 67.0
EB TDA margin 67.2 68.6 68.9 73.4 72.3 73.1 74.0 74.3
EB T (UBS) margin 42.6 45.7 50.8 58.9 58.7 59.3 59.5 59.3
Net earnings (UBS) margin 38.8 40.5 45.1 51.7 49.8 50.5 50.9 51.3
RO C (EB T) 38.6 49.6 65.1 NM NM NM NM NM
RO C post tax 33.0 41.4 54.6 70.2 68.8 67.3 65.2 65.7
ROE (UBS) 26.2 30.3 35.4 44.4 43.1 42.1 38.4 34.8
Capital structure & Coverage (x) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Net debt / EB TDA (0.5) (0.7) (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.9) (1.2)
Net debt / total equity % (21.9) (33.2) (38.0) (37.1) (36.5) (38.4) (44.6) (51.3)
Net debt / (net debt + total equity) % (28.1) (49.7) (61.3) (59.1) (57.4) (62.3) (80.7) NM
Net debt/EV % (5.5) (5.0) (6.2) (4.1) (5.6) (8.2) (12.9) (21.0)
Capex / depreciation % 178.3 144.1 184.8 NM NM NM 186.4 152.1
Capex / revenue % NM NM NM NM NM NM 27.0 22.8
EB T / net interest - - - - - - - -
Dividend cover (UBS) 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0
Div. payout ratio (UBS) % 40.2 37.6 33.2 26.3 26.6 25.8 25.9 25.0
Revenues by division (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Wafer revenue 1,882,518 2,514,461 3,272,553 4,761,629 6,697,751 8,926,728 10,880,718 12,906,248
Others 279,218 379,846 536,501 852,698 1,223,585 1,651,445 2,067,336 2,452,187
Others 0 1 0 (1) 0 0 1 0
2,161,736 2,894,308 3,809,054 5,614,326 7,921,336 10,578,173 12,948,055 15,358,435
Total 12/30E
EBIT (UB ) by division (NT$m) Others 12/23 921,466 12/24 1,322,053 12/25 1,936,092 12/26E 3,308,636 12/27E 4,649,402 12/28E 6,275,612 12/29E 7,698,664 9,110,458
Total 921,466 1,936,092 6,275,612 7,698,664 9,110,458
1,322,053 3,308,636 4,649,402

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 9.6%
Forecast dividend yield 1.3%
Forecast stock return 50.9%
Market return assumption 6.3%
Forecast excess return .5%

Company Description

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) is the world's leading dedicated foundry service provider, with annual capacity of about 32m of 8-inch equivalent wafers as of end2024. t operates four 12-inch wafer fabs, four 8-inch wafer fabs and one 6-inch wafer fab in Taiwan. TSMC also manages two 8-inch fabs and one 12-inch fab overseas under wholly owned subsidiaries WaferTech in the US, and TSMC China and TSMC Nanjing in China.

Valuation Method and Risk tatement

We base our price target for TSMC on a PE multiple.

We think TSMC faces a variety of risks, including rapidly changing technology, intense competition, high capital investment and cyclical demand. TSMC also has a history of paying stock options to its employees, which could dilute earnings.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

Taiwan emiconductor Manufacturing

Question Response
1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view)
2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) 3
3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view)
. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view)
5. What's driving the difference?
6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view)
7. What's driving the difference?
8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? Positive Catalyst
9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst?
10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date?
11. What is the catalyst?

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