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APAC Technology
UBS Tech Views: Intel supply chain implications upside from CPU and packaging
Intel results: strong demand upside amid tight supply. Intel's stock rose 4% after hours and is up 154% YTD vs. the SOX up 68% YTD, with the incremental lift driven by upside to both Q326 guidance and positive tone for 2026 into following years from strong agentic AI for CPU workloads and improving tone on manufacturing execution. For more details and implications directly for Intel, see the report (link) from UBS covering analyst Tim Arcuri. Below are metrics and implications for the Asia tech supply chain along with Summary Figures.
- Q226 sales and margins above led by data center and client PC pricing/ pull-ins . Q226 sales grew 19% QoQ and up 25% YoY to US$16.1bn, above street US$14.4bn with Non GAAP GMs 40.4%, above street 39%. Data center led +24% QoQ/+59% YoY to US$6.3bn, above street US$5.5bn while client increased +15% QoQ/+13% YoY to US$8.9bn, above street US$8.1bn due to higher prices for the increase to pass on higher cost and continued pull-ins amid price inflation. External foundry remained small at US$293mn while the foundry segment grew +6% QoQ/+31% YoY to US$5.8bn, above street US$5.7bn on the higher production levels and improving yields, narrowing the operating loss by US $350mn to US$2.1bn.
- Q326 guided above on stronger server demand despite supply constraints. Q326 was guided above to a US$15.8-$16.8bn range, +1.1% QoQ/+19.4% YoY at the midpoint, above prior street US$15.1bn and in-line with raised UBS estimates, supported by improving server CPU demand and sustained AI infrastructure spending. While wafer output and 18A yields are trending ahead of plan, supply remains constrained across wafers, memory and substrates, with supply growth expected to be skewed toward late-Q3 and Q4, particularly for servers. While PC demand is expected to remain sub-seasonal in 2H26 and down low-double digits for full-year 2026 due to memory cost and availability constraints, improving supply, a stronger product portfolio, and edge-AI deployments should provide partial offsets. GMs was guided to 42%, above street 41%, supported by improving yields and operational execution.
- Server CPU outlook improved further on AI-driven demand. Management highlighted improving outlook for server CPU demand, forecasting strong doubledigit industry unit growth this year and next, with momentum extending into 2028, supported by agentic AI and inference workloads. The commentary aligns with AMD's recent TAM expansion, which projects the server CPU market to exceed US$200bn by 2030, with AMD management noting CPU demand could move closer to parity with GPUs over time as AI infrastructure scales (link).
- Foundry and advanced packaging momentum continues to build. Intel Foundry revenue increased 6% QoQ to US$5.8bn, driven by higher fab volumes as 18A output exceeded targets by ~25% and grew more than 50% QoQ. Management highlighted that 18A yields continue to run ahead of expectations, with 18A-P entering risk production during the quarter. Manufacturing efficiencies also continue to improve, with Panther Lake costs reduced by ~50% YTD and targeted to decline a further ~20% by year-end. Looking ahead, Intel completed 14A PDK 0.5 and remains on track for PDK 0.9 in October, supporting increasingly active customer engagements and higher confidence in future foundry opportunities with target to start high volume production in 2028. For advanced packaging, customer interest in EMIB-T remains strong, with a growing backlog and yields/reliability meeting targets ahead of customer ramps in 2027.
Equities
Global
Technology
Randy Abrams
Analyst randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338
Timothy Arcuri
Analyst timothy.arcuri@ubs.com +1-415-352 5676
Nicolas Gaudois Analyst nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com +65-6495 5148
Sunny Lin
Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346
Diana Chang Analyst diana.chang@ubs.com
+886-2-8722 7335
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
- Capex outlook revised sharply higher. Intel raised FY26 gross capex guidance from US$17bn to ~US$20bn and indicated FY27 spending will increase materially, driven by investments in Intel 3, 18A/14A and advanced packaging capacity as it grows more optimistic on continued agentic CPU demand also driving higher CPU to GPU ratio toward 1:1 and investing for foundry opportunities. The bulk of the spend remains US-focused, with cumulative US fab and tooling investments approaching US$100bn since 2021 as Intel expands capacity to support AI-driven demand growth.
- Inventory levels flat as supply remains constrained . Intel's inventory was flattish QoQ at US$12.5bn, lowering days from 142 days to 119 days as the company continues to note constrained wafers until it ramps faster from late Q326. The company's inventory mix saw raw materials slightly down to 10 days, WIP down 20 days to 82 days and finished goods down 2 days to 26 days.
Read-across for the supply chain:
- UBS view on tech hardware - strong traditional server demand supporting the ODMs, high-end substrates and power. Intel's view for inflecting multiyear server growth, as data centers consolidate older servers into more power efficient new multi-core servers and demand ramps to serve inference and agentic machine to machine workloads, supports ODMs with high exposure to traditional servers. We highlight Wiwynn (~50% general server) and Inventec (~30% general server) as most exposed, followed by Quanta (~20% general server) and Hon Hai (~10%). We previewed the ODM companies in the past week, revising up estimates on strong sales from AI and traditional servers which should support OP $ and earnings upside. Other suppliers with leverage include Lotes (40% general server) with CPU and DDR 5 socket and substrate suppliers Ibiden and Unimicron more leveraged to Intel. (Randy Abrams, Diana Chang).
- UBS view on notebook ODMs / PC brands - Intel constraints and server prioritization consistent with our softer notebook outlook . We believe higher memory prices and mix allocation to higher-end products will likely constrain demand for low-mid-end PCs, while higher pricing to pass on costs will also likely pressure unit volume. We lowered our 2026E PC units from -4% YoY to -11% YoY in our hardware report on PC demand and hyperscaler capex consistent with Intel's revised PC client TAM guidance for a low teens decline for the industry. Near-term we previewed Lenovo should see upside from strong infrastructure (ISG) sales and margins and resilient Q2 in PC devices like Intel although that segment should still see similar unit decline in H226 along with OpM flat to slightly down. (Randy Abrams).
- UBS view on Amkor - potential lift as an outsource supplier for EMIB-T . We view Amkor has opportunity to secure outsourcing for Intel's products as incoming order plans led by Mediatek's collaboration with Google are booking out the planned upgrade capacity upgrades in Penang. The company was added as a strategic partner in 2025 and upgrading capacity in Korea, Portugal and upcoming Arizona fab to support the business and could ramp in 2027. (Randy Abrams)
- UBS view on memory - strong data center outlook and agentic AI a positive for DRAM. Intel again noted that AI inference and agentic workloads are fueling a conventional server refresh and indicated customers now see that as multi-year in nature. This add to demand for DDR5/LPDDR5X/SOCAMM2 in a meaningful way (see our recent APAC Focus). Combined with HBM, we forecast DRAM industry bit demand growth to 36% YoY in 2027 from 22% in 2026 - a level supply cannot match in our view (Nicolas Gaudois).
- UBS view on TSMC - positive read-across for compute for TSMC/Aspeed, Intel's back-end build-out or the Terafab shouldn't dampen TSMC's substantial HPC opportunity. We view Intel's commentary on the traditional server inflection as positive for Aspeed as a strong unit play on general servers and growing footprint in AI servers along with TSMC leading supply for AMD, ARM CPU suppliers and possibly benefiting from Intel's constraints and extended time to improve its roadmap with Coral Rapids in a couple of years. Intel's ability to bring up 18A with yield improvement through 2025 and make progress on 14A along with supporting Elon Musk's Terafab initiative could ease some government regulatory or investment pressures concerned with TSMC's very high advanced node share. We still see translation of engagement to high volume foundry business taking several years and keeping most of the AI compute and high-end
switching and communications demand at TSMC for the coming few years. For TSMC's Intel business, we think it should lower to mid single digit % of sales as other AI accelerator customers grow faster. We do note Intel as it improves yields should pull-in some client PC back in-house although that also would alleviate some of TSMC's intensive advanced node supply constraints. For EMIB-T, we view its enablement of multi-die chiplets including for Google enabling more front-end production still largely coming out of TSMC, while TSMC is also pulling in its CoPoS (panel level packaging) production plan into 2028 to address these opportunities (Sunny Lin/Randy Abrams).
- UBS view on UMC - collaboration with Intel ongoing. Intel did not update on its plans with UMC although we still see joint development continuing on 12nm FinFET at Intel's New Mexico fab and also possibly expanding to future advanced nodes down to 3nm. The investments from multiple partners in Intel (US Government, Softbank, NVIDIA) should also help secure the relationship where we see test chips through 2026E and production in 2027E. We see a good wave of business at UMC's traditional Taiwan fabless customers (Mediatek, Novatek, Realtek, Parade) giving them an upgrade path to FinFET capacity with better power/performance (Sunny Lin).
Summary Figures
Figure 1: Intel Q226 sales and margins ahead; 2026 capex revised from US$17bn to US$20bn+ and up significantly in 2027
| Intel Overall (US$mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q Prior UBS | 2Q Prior Guide | 3Q Prior UBS | 3Q Guide | Prior UBS 2026 | 2026 Guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel Total Sales | $12,667 | $12,859 | $13,653 | $13,674 | $52,853 | $13,577 | $16,128 | $15,331 | US$13.8-14.8bn | $16,362 | US$15.8-16.8bn | $62,256 | |
| YoY | -0.4% | 0.2% | 2.8% | -4.1% | -0.5% | 7.2% | 25.4% | 19.2% | Midpt +11.2% YoY | 19.8% | Midpt +19.4% YoY | 17.8% | Server CPU DD% into '27 |
| QoQ | -11.2% | 1.5% | 6.2% | 0.2% | -0.7% | 18.8% | 12.9% | Midpt +5.3% QoQ | 1.5% | Midpt +1.1% QoQ | 2H PC subseas. | ||
| Non GAAP COGs | $7,995 | $9,317 | $8,435 | $8,731 | $34,478 | $8,007 | $9,619 | $9,053 | $9,604 | $36,584 | |||
| Non GAAP GM% | 36.9% | 27.5% | 38.2% | 36.1% | 34.8% | 41.0% | 40.4% | 41.0% | 39.0% | 41.3% | 42.0% | 41.2% | |
| Intel Product Sales | $11,755 | $11,810 | $12,652 | $12,930 | $49,147 | $12,779 | $15,139 | $14,515 | $15,510 | $58,830 | $4bn ASIC run-rate soon | ||
| YoY | -2.9% | -1.2% | 2.8% | -1.4% | -0.7% | 8.7% | 28.2% | 22.9% | 22.6% | 19.7% | |||
| QoQ | -10.4% | 0.5% | 7.1% | 2.2% | -1.2% | 18.5% | 13.6% | 6.9% | |||||
| COGs & Opex | $8,819 | $9,124 | $8,994 | $9,471 | $36,408 | $8,721 | $10,322 | ||||||
| Operating Profit | $2,936 | $2,686 | $3,658 | $3,459 | $12,739 | $4,058 | $4,817 | $58,830 | |||||
| OpM% | 25.0% | 22.7% | 28.9% | 26.8% | 25.9% | 31.8% | 31.8% | 100.0% | |||||
| Intel Capex (US$mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q Prior UBS | 2Q Prior Guide | 3Q Prior UBS | 3Q Guide | Prior UBS 2026 | 2026 Guide |
| Gross Capex | $6,203 | $4,492 | $2,956 | $4,021 | $17,672 | $5,136 | $2,652 | $4,600 | $4,200 | $18,236 | Raise to over US$20bn | ||
| YoY | 3.9% | -20.9% | -58.7% | -36.3% | -29.7% | -17.2% | -41.0% | 2.4% | 42.1% | 3.2% | +40% equipment in '26 | ||
| QoQ | -1.8% | -27.6% | -34.2% | 36.0% | 27.7% | -48.4% | -10.4% | -8.7% | Up meaningfully in '27 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Prior columns show prior UBS estimates.
Figure 2: Intel segment results and guidance for data center, client and foundry
| Intel CCPG (US$mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q Prior UBS | 2Q Prior Guide | 3Q Prior UBS | 3Q Guide | Prior UBS 2026 | 2026 Guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCPG (Client) Revenue | $7,629 | $7,871 | $8,535 | $8,193 | $32,228 | $7,727 | $8,877 | $8,499 | Up QoQ | $8,835 | Up a little bit | $33,896 | PC low DD% decline |
| YoY | -7.8% | -3.3% | 4.6% | -6.6% | -3.4% | 1.3% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | Enterprise growth | 5.2% | 4Q soft | |
| QoQ | -13.0% | 3.2% | 8.4% | -4.0% | -5.7% | 14.9% | 10.0% | 4.0% | Client flattish | ||||
| CCPG Op Income | $2,361 | $2,053 | $2,694 | $2,209 | $9,317 | $2,516 | $2,343 | ||||||
| YoY | -16.3% | -22.3% | -8.3% | -30.8% | -19.6% | 6.6% | 14% | -100% | |||||
| QoQ | -26.1% | -13.0% | 31.2% | -18.0% | 13.9% | -6.9% | |||||||
| CCG OpM% | 30.9% | 26.1% | 31.6% | 27.0% | 28.9% | 32.6% | 26.4% | 0.0% |
| Intel DCAI (US$mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q Prior UBS | 2Q Prior Guide | 3Q Prior UBS | 3Q Guide | Prior UBS 2026 | 2026 Guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCAI (Data Center) Revenue | $4,126 | $3,939 | $4,117 | $4,737 | $16,919 | $5,052 | $6,262 | $6,016 | DD% QoQ | $6,675 | $24,934 | Q4 more server supply | |
| YoY | 7.8% | 3.5% | -0.6% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 22.4% | 59.0% | 52.7% | 62.1% | 47.4% | Strong DD% unit growth | ||
| QoQ | -5.2% | -4.5% | 4.5% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 24.0% | 19.1% | 11.0% | for 2026-2028 | ||||
| DCAI Op Income | $575 | $633 | $964 | $1,250 | $3,422 | $1,542 | $2,474 | ||||||
| YoY | 37.9% | 161.6% | 153.0% | 234.2% | 142.0% | 168.2% | 291% | -100% | |||||
| QoQ | 53.7% | 10.1% | 52.3% | 29.7% | 23.4% | 60.4% | |||||||
| DCAI OpM% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 23.4% | 26.4% | 20.2% | 30.5% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
| Intel Foundry (US$mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q Prior UBS | 2Q Prior Guide | 3Q Prior UBS | 3Q Guide | Prior UBS 2026 | 2026 Guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundry Revenue | $4,667 | $4,417 | $4,235 | $4,507 | $17,826 | $5,421 | $5,765 | $6,309 | $6,948 | $26,394 | 2H and '27 better | ||
| YoY | 7.1% | 3.2% | -2.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 16.2% | 30.5% | 42.8% | 64.0% | 48.1% | Higher wafer output on | ||
| QoQ | 7.5% | -5.4% | -4.1% | 6.4% | 20.3% | 6.3% | 16.4% | 10.1% | major nodes | ||||
| External Foundry Revenue | $31 | $22 | $32 | $222 | $307 | $174 | $293 | $270 | $305 | $1,185 | |||
| YoY | -13.9% | 29.4% | 39.1% | 167.5% | 93.1% | 461.3% | 1231.8% | 1127.3% | 853.1% | 286.0% | |||
| QoQ | -62.7% | -29.0% | 45.5% | 593.8% | -21.6% | 68.4% | 55.2% | 13.0% | |||||
| Foundry Op Income | -$2,320 | -$3,168 | -$2,321 | -$2,509 | -$10,318 | -$2,437 | -$2,089 | ||||||
| YoY | -5.0% | 13.1% | -60.0% | 11.6% | -22.4% | 5.0% | -34% | -100% | |||||
| QoQ | -3.2% | -36.6% | 26.7% | -8.1% | -2.9% | -14.3% | |||||||
| Foundry OpM% | -49.7% | -71.7% | -54.8% | -55.7% | -57.9% | -45.0% | -36.2% | 0.0% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Prior columns show prior UBS estimates
Figure 3: Intel inventory dollar levels stable, but days come down
| Intel Inventory (US$mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Material Inventory | $1,322 | $1,194 | $1,135 | $993 | $993 | $918 | $1,046 |
| WIP Inventory | $7,240 | $6,484 | $6,751 | $7,840 | $7,840 | $9,004 | $8,685 |
| Finished Goods Inventory | $3,719 | $3,699 | $3,603 | $2,785 | $2,785 | $2,504 | $2,761 |
| Total Inventory | $12,281 | $11,377 | $11,489 | $11,618 | $11,618 | $12,426 | $12,492 |
| YoY | 6.8% | 1.2% | -4.8% | -4.8% | -4.8% | 1.2% | 9.8% |
| QoQ | 0.7% | -7.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 0.5% | |
| Raw Material Days | 15.1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| WIP Inventory Days | 82.6 | 63.5 | 73.0 | 81.9 | 81.9 | 102.6 | 82.4 |
| Finished Goods Days | 42.4 | 36.2 | 39.0 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 28.5 | 26.2 |
| Inventory Days | 140.2 | 111.4 | 124.3 | 121.4 | 121.4 | 141.6 | 118.5 |
Source: Company data
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Investing in the technology sector involves a high degree of risk. Rapid technological changes, increasing competition and exposure to macroeconomic cycles are among the many risks faced by investors in technology stocks. Moreover, it is extremely difficult to project the financial results of tech companies since their operating models are highly volatile and unpredictable. Finally, valuing technology stocks can prove challenging, as neither traditional nor non-traditional valuation measures have provided much insight into how these stocks trade. Valuation methodologies in the sector include target price-book-multiples based on the long term average ROE and the cost of equity.
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