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71KB | 真資料圖 | 左：2408（藍線）vs TAIEX（橘線）走勢與 Price Target 綠點，2024-05 至 2026-10；右：評等歷史表（Outperform，TP 由 2024-01-11 TWD 91.00 至 2025-12-18 TWD 200.00，另列 2025-04-11 51.00、2025-07-11 64.20、2025-10-14 112.00、2024-10-14 83.00）。屬股價／目標價沿革圖，依使用者裁定公司頁不嵌 |
原始內容
Nanya Technology
GPM continues to expand
What's new
- After the market close on 12 October, Nanya Technology released its 3Q26 results and hosted an analyst meeting. Earnings were in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates, which had already been raised after previously released 3Q26 sales beat expectations. The company expects the upward pricing trend to continue into 4Q26 and undersupply to persist throughout 2027; it also raised its 2026 capex to NT$69.7bn.
GPM continues to expand
- 3Q26 GPM rose 620bps QoQ to 85.7% after a 60%+ QoQ increase in ASP (bit shipments fell mid-single digits QoQ).
- 3Q ASP growth outpaced major global competitors due to several resets of semi-annual pricing contracts.
- The company expects positive ASP momentum to continue into 4Q26 and DRAM shortages to persist throughout 2027.
- AI infrastructure already accounts for 20%+ of sales, and the company expects this to approach 50% by 2030.
- Capex increased to NT$69.7bn (~half equipment) from prior guidance of NT $52bn.
- The company guided to 2026 bit shipment growth in the high teens, with no QoQ growth until 2H27.
- New fab equipment move-in is scheduled for 1Q27, with a ramp to 30kwpm by end-2028 and a target up to 50K WSPM by 2030.
- Net cash increased ~NT$70bn to NT$270bn at 3Q26-end.
Maintain Outperform and NT$681.4 TP (5.5x 2027E PER)
- We remain bullish on the DRAM industry long term and believe Nanya's launch of 10nm-class products should improve its product mix and support cost and profitability long term.
- Our target price of NT$681.4 is based on a 5.5x 2027 PER.
Nanya Technology - 3Q26 results review
| NT$m | 3Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q25 | QoQ % | YoY % | MACQ | Diff % | BBG | Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 133,649 | 82,549 | 18,779 | 61.9% | 611.7% | 133,649 | 0.0% | 133,354 | 0.2% |
| Gross profit | 114,482 | 65,619 | 3,465 | 74.5% | 3204.1% | 113,602 | 0.8% | 113,837 | 0.6% |
| GM % | 85.7% | 79.5% | 18.5% | 85.0% | 85.4% | ||||
| Operating profit | 106,894 | 60,826 | 1,119 | 75.7% | 9451.3% | 108,761 | -1.7% | 107,724 | -0.8% |
| OPM % | 80.0% | 73.7% | 6.0% | 81.4% | 80.8% | ||||
| Pretax income | 109,332 | 62,329 | 2,023 | 75.4% | 5304.6% | 109,890 | -0.5% | 109,629 | -0.3% |
| Net income | 87,627 | 50,192 | 1,563 | 74.6% | 5505.1% | 93,406 | -6.2% | 88,266 | -0.7% |
| Net margin | 65.6% | 60.8% | 8.3% | 69.9% | 66.2% | ||||
| EPS (NT$) | 25.40 | 14.66 | 0.50 | 73.3% | 4980.0% | 27.29 | -6.9% | 25.65 | -1.0% |
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2026
Semicons & Semicon Equip
Taiwan
Jeffrey Ohlweiler
Price (at 12 Oct 2026)
Outperform
TWD527.00
12-month target TWD681.40
12-month TSR (%)
33.1
Volatility Index Very High
Market Cap (Local) (m)
1,818,258
Market Cap (USD) (m)
56,944
Free Float (%)
64
30-day avg turnover (USD) (m)
652.8
Investment Fundamentals
| Year end 31 Dec | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (bn) | 66.6 | 404.4 | 613.2 | 804.5 |
| Revenue growth (%) | 95.1 | 507.3 | 51.7 | 31.2 |
| EBIT (bn) | 5.2 | 313.0 | 500.7 | 661.0 |
| EBIT growth (%) | NM | 5,870.0 | 60.0 | 32.0 |
| Reported profit (bn) | 6.6 | 267.0 | 424.1 | 560.1 |
| EPS rep [TWD] | 2.1 | 79.9 | 123.9 | 163.6 |
| EPS rep growth (%) | NM | 3,643.1 | 55.1 | 32.1 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (22.8) | (53.8) | (59.8) | (64.6) |
| ROA (%) | 2.5 | 80.2 | 66.0 | 55.4 |
| ROE (%) | 3.9 | 78.6 | 61.0 | 49.7 |
| PER rep (x) | 246.9 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 71.6 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| P/BV (x) | 9.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Total div yield (%) | 0.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.7 |
2408 TT rel TAIEX performance, & rec history
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, Oct 2026 (all figures in TWD unless noted, TP in TWD)
Analysts
Jeffrey Ohlweiler
- +8862 2734 7512
jeffrey.ohlweiler@macquarie.com
Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch