PDF 原檔：報告_Macquarie_世芯3661_20260918_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-24）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
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36.5KB | 真資料圖 | 3661 股價（藍線,左軸）vs Rel TAIEX（橘線,右軸）走勢圖，附綠色圓點標示歷次目標價，下方 O/N/U 評等歷史色帶 |
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60.6KB | 真資料圖 | Sales by region 堆疊柱狀圖（Japan／Asia Pacific／North America／Others），1Q22-2Q26 按季，2Q26 North America 占比降至 51%、Asia Pacific 升至 25% |
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54.7KB | 真資料圖 | Sales by application 堆疊柱狀圖（HPC incl. CPU&AI／Niche／Network／Consumer Elec），1Q22-2Q26 按季，HPC 占比多數季度 >80%，2Q26 為 50% |
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42.7KB | 真資料圖 | 「3661 Alchip」月營收折線圖（NT$m），Jan-Dec，2017-2026 逐年疊圖，2026（紅線）自 6 月起大幅高於歷史各年、8 月達約 NT$8,700mn |
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25.7KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | 未逐張 Read（<40KB），Figure 6 QFII holdings (%) 折線圖 |
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44.2KB | 真資料圖 | 12-month forward P/E band 圖，股價（紅線）疊 4x/15x/26x/37x/48x 倍數帶，2026 股價落於 15x-26x 帶內 |
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40.6KB | 真資料圖 | 12-month forward P/B band 圖，股價（紅線）疊 0.8x/2.4x/4x/5.6x/7.2x 倍數帶 |
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42.2KB | 真資料圖 | IC design 同業 P/E valuation 散點圖（eMemory／Aspeed／Silergy／Alchip／GUC／Parade／Phison／MediaTek／Realtek／Novatek），含 Historical 12m fwd PER 與 2025/2026/2027 PEx 三色點；Alchip 2026PEx 約 27x、2027PEx 約 21x |
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16.7KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | 未逐張 Read（<40KB），Alpha Model Rank 歷史走勢圖 |
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14.6KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | 未逐張 Read（<40KB），Drivers of Stock Return 分解圖 |
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17.2KB | 裝飾·logo·banner | 未逐張 Read（<40KB），Alpha Model 同業因子貢獻圖 |
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46.1KB | 真資料圖 | 3661 股價（藍線）vs TAIEX（橘線）走勢圖，雙軸不同於 001（001 為相對表現＋評等歷史色帶，本圖為絕對股價＋TAIEX＋歷次目標價綠點），下方同樣附 O/N/U 評等色帶 |
原始內容
Technology
Alchip Technologies
Growth acceleration under way
Key Points
- Alchip's 3nm AI ASIC project ramped in 2Q26 and has driven strong HoH and YoY growth from 2H26.
- ·We believe the 3nm AI ASIC ramp-up and next-generation tape-out in late-2026 are key catalysts for Alchip shares.
- ·While we do not forecast additional CSP projects, the company is "highly confident" it can secure another major CSP customer.
Expect 100%+ sales CAGR in 2026/27
- We believe share-price upside could be driven by: 1) the successful ramp of its key customer's 3nm AI ASIC (shipments from June), 2) success in winning the key customer's next-generation projects (tape out in late-2026), and 3) other key projects, including networking-related projects that could help drive 2027 and beyond sales growth, along with multiple ADAS projects (the first major project ramped up in 1Q26).
- We maintain our positive long-term view on ASIC industry growth, driven by the continued outsourcing of IC design services to Asia, supported by a large talent pool and lower costs, and by Alchip's strong competitive position and track record. We are not concerned about Alchip's key customer's agreements with other semiconductor peers. We believe these agreements highlight the large, growing TAM for the customer's AI ASIC and related ecosystem. We also note that Alchip's largest customer has invested in Alchip stock twice.
- Company remains bullish through at least 2029: During its 2Q26 analyst meeting in August, the company reiterated that sales should be "at least in line with AI ASIC industry growth through 2029." The company also expressed confidence in 3nm AI ASIC sales from June 2026 and in the successful tape-out of its next-generation AI ASIC project before year-end.
Earnings changes: We raise our 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS rep by 9%/27%/20% to reflect the higher scale of AI ASIC projects.
Valuation: We raise our target price 4% to NT$6,784, based on a 26x 2028E PER, from NT$6,542, based on a 30x 2028E PER. Our new multiple is back in line with the historical average and to reflect high customer concentration.
Catalysts: Sustained revenue growth from June; successful tape-out of a next-generation project in 2H26.
Investment Thesis and Recommendation
As a key AI beneficiary with a strong track record of successful leadingedge project ramps, we continue to believe in Alchip's long-term growth outlook and remain positive on AI ASIC industry growth. Link to prior Alchip research.
Semicons & Semicon Equip Taiwan
Jeffrey Ohlweiler
3661 TT Price (at 18 Sep 2026) 12-month target 12-month TSR (%) Volatility Index Market Cap (Local) (m) Market Cap (USD) (m) Free Float (%) 30-day avg turnover (USD) (m)
Outperform TWD3,540 TWD6,784 94.8 Very High 305,520 9,583 97
280.8
Investment Fundamentals
| Year end 31 Dec | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 30.9 | 66.8 | 126.0 | 157.0 |
| Revenue growth (%) | (40.5) | 116.1 | 88.5 | 24.6 |
| EBIT (m) | 5.0 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 25.7 |
| EBIT growth (%) | (22.8) | 154.9 | 57.6 | 27.5 |
| Reported profit (m) | 5.6 | 11.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 |
| Adjusted profit (m) | 5.6 | 11.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 |
| EPS rep [TWD] | 69.2 | 142.7 | 209.9 | 260.9 |
| EPS rep growth (%) | (15.2) | 106.1 | 47.1 | 24.3 |
| EPS adj [TWD] | 69.2 | 141.6 | 209.9 | 260.9 |
| EPS adj growth (%) | (15.1) | 104.5 | 48.2 | 24.3 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (95.2) | (29.9) | (36.7) | (64.5) |
| ROA (%) | 9.3 | 15.5 | 17.8 | 19.9 |
| ROE (%) | 14.0 | 22.3 | 25.3 | 27.5 |
| PER rep (x) | 51.1 | 24.8 | 16.9 | 13.6 |
| PER adj (x) | 51.1 | 25.0 | 16.9 | 13.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 26.6 | 14.2 | 9.4 | 7.5 |
| P/BV (x) | 7.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Total div yield (%) | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Quant (rank vs. global sector) | Quant (rank vs. global sector) | 442 / 675 | 442 / 675 | 442 / 675 |
3661 TT rel TAIEX performance, & rec history
Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, Sep 2026 (all figures in TWD unless noted, TP in TWD)
Key Risks to Investment Thesis
- Project ramp-up delays or failure to reach mass production, resulting in lower-than-expected scale.
- Order reductions from key customers, including potential impacts from US semiconductor regulations, leading to sales or earnings misses.
- Failure to secure key customers' next-generation projects.
Figure 1 - Alchip - Sales by region
Company Description
Alchip is a IC design service companies that assists IC design and system companies to complete chip designs. Their revenues come in two main streams: 1) NRE (non-recurring engineering) which is the service provided starting with the back-end design of the semiconductor to tape out at foundry. 2) Turnkey occurs when Alchip assists customers in placing wafer orders to foundries (TSMC) and delivering final wafers to customers.
Figure 2 - Alchip - Sales by application
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) TWD/(m) unless otherwise noted
| Income Statement Dec FY | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Balance Sheet | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.9 | 66.8 | 126.0 | 157.0 | - | - | Cash | 38.9 | 19.6 | 27.3 | 55.2 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 22.8 | 50.0 | 100.8 | 125.6 | - | - | Receivables | 3.3 | 21.8 | 24.0 | 32.0 |
| Gross Profit | 8.2 | 16.9 | 25.2 | 31.4 | - | - | Inventories | 6.9 | 58.5 | 60.1 | 42.9 |
| EBITDA | 8.1 | 15.9 | 23.8 | 30.0 | - | - | Investments | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Depreciation | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.8 | - | - | Fixed Assets | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Amortisation | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | - | - | Intangibles | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 5.0 | 12.8 | 20.2 | 25.7 | - | - | Other Assets | 5.3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Net Interest Income | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | - | - | Total Assets | 58.0 | 106.8 | 119.4 | 138.6 |
| Associates | (0.0) | (0.0) | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | Payables | 2.0 | 19.8 | 23.5 | 31.5 |
| Exceptionals | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | Short Term Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Forex Gains / Losses | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | Long Term Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other Pre-Tax Income | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | Other Liabilities | 15.2 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | 6.7 | 14.3 | 21.2 | 26.3 | - | - | Total Liabilities | 17.2 | 41.2 | 45.0 | 53.0 |
| Tax Expense | (1.1) | (2.4) | (3.5) | (4.3) | - | - | Shareholders' Funds | 40.0 | 64.1 | 73.0 | 84.1 |
| Net Profit | 5.6 | 11.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 | - | - | Minority Interests | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minority Interests | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | Other | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Reported Earnings | 5.6 | 11.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 | - | - | Total S/H Equity | 40.8 | 65.5 | 74.4 | 85.5 |
| Adjusted Earnings | 5.6 | 11.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 | - | - | Total Liab & S/H Funds | 58.0 | 106.8 | 119.4 | 138.6 |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | - | Net Debt / Equity (%) | (95.2) | (29.9) | (36.7) | (64.5) |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | - | Interest Cover (x) | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| EPS (rep) [TWD] | 69.2 | 142.7 | 209.9 | 260.9 | - | - | ROE (%) | 14.0 | 22.3 | 25.3 | 27.5 |
| EPS (adj) [TWD] | 69.2 | 141.6 | 209.9 | 260.9 | - | - | ROA (%) | 9.3 | 15.5 | 17.8 | 19.9 |
| Total DPS [TWD] | 34.4 | 70.4 | 104.3 | 129.7 | - | - | ROIC (%) | 41.6 | 546.4 | 36.7 | 45.6 |
| Ratio | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Cash Flow Analysis | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||
| Revenue Growth (%) | (40.5) | 116.1 | 88.5 | 24.6 | - | - | EBITDA | 8.1 | 15.9 | 23.8 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA Growth (%) | (11.6) | 96.7 | 49.8 | 26.1 | - | - | Tax Paid | (1.1) | (2.4) | (3.5) | (4.3) |
| EBIT Growth (%) | (22.8) | 154.9 | 57.6 | 27.5 | - | - | Chgs in Working Cap | 2.7 | (51.9) | (0.0) | 17.3 |
| EPS Growth (adj) (%) | (15.1) | 104.5 | 48.2 | 24.3 | - | - | Net Interest Paid | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Gross Profit Margin (%) | 26.4 | 25.2 | 20.0 | 20.0 | - | - | Other | 4.1 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 26.1 | 23.8 | 18.9 | 19.1 | - | - | Operating Cashflow | 15.3 | (31.7) | 21.7 | 44.0 |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 16.2 | 19.1 | 16.0 | 16.4 | - | - | Acquisitions | (4.6) | (7.9) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 18.1 | 17.7 | 14.1 | 14.0 | - | - | Capex | (2.3) | (2.1) | (3.6) | (3.6) |
| Payout Ratio (%) | 49.7 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 49.7 | - | - | Other | 1.1 | (0.3) | (1.6) | (1.6) |
| PE (rep) (x) | 51.1 | 24.8 | 16.9 | 13.6 | - | - | Investing Cashflow | (5.8) | (10.3) | (5.2) | (5.2) |
| PE (adj) (x) | 51.1 | 25.0 | 16.9 | 13.6 | - | - | Dividend (Ordinary) | (2.9) | (5.9) | (8.8) | (10.9) |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 26.6 | 14.2 | 9.4 | 7.5 | - | - | Equity Raised | 0.0 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EV/EBIT (x) | 43.8 | 17.9 | 11.4 | 8.9 | - | - | Debt Movements | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Price/Book (x) | 7.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 | - | - | Other | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total Div Yield (%) | (2.7) | 14.9 | (8.8) | (10.9) | |||||||
| 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | - | - | Financing Cashflow | (26.7) | ||||
| Net Chg in Cash/Debt | 5.6 | 7.7 | 27.8 | ||||||||
| Free Cashflow | 13.0 | (33.9) | 18.1 | 40.4 |
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research Sep 2026
Figure 3 - AI ASIC project landscape
| Company | Chip | Process | Design service provider | AI card assembler | AI server assembler Memory specs | AI server assembler Memory specs | Memory bandwidth | Mass production | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWS | |||||||||
| Inferentia 2 | 7nm TSMC | Alchip (back-end) | Accton | Wiwynn | HBM2e 32GB (2x16) | 820 GB/s | 2H22 | ~50% of Alchip's 2023 sales | |
| Inferentia 2.5 / Trainium 2 | 5nm TSMC | Marvell (back-end) | Accton | Wiwynn | HBM3 96GB (6x16) | 2,900 GB/s | 2H24 | ||
| Trainium 3 | 3nm TSMC | Alchip (back-end) | Accton/Fabrinet | Wiwynn | 1H26 | ||||
| Trainium 4 | 2nm TSMC | Alchip (back-end) | Accton/Fabrinet | Wiwynn | 2027 | ||||
| Graviton v3 (CPU) | 5nm TSMC | AWS in-house | Wiwynn/Hon Hai | 2022 | ARM Neoverse / Annapurna Labs | ||||
| Graviton v4 (CPU) | 4nm TSMC | AWS in-house | Wiwynn/Hon Hai | 2024 | Over the past 2 years, 50%+ CPU deployed in AWS is Graviton | ||||
| TPUv5p | 7nm TSMC | Broadcom | Celestica | Celestica | HBM2e 95GB | 2,765 GB/s | 2023 | ||
| TPUv6e (Trillium) | 5nm TSMC | Broadcom | Celestica | Celestica | HBM3/3e 32GB | 1,600 GB/s | 2024 | ||
| TPUv6p | 3nm TSMC | Broadcom | Celestica | Celestica | 2025 | ||||
| TPUv7e | 3nm TSMC | Mediatek (back-end & I/O) | Celestica | Celestica | 2H25 | T/O in 4Q25. Core processor: N3. I/O: N4. CoWoS-S. | |||
| TPUv7p (Ironwood) | 3nm TSMC | Broadcom | Celestica | Celestica | 2H25 | ||||
| TPUv8i | 3nm TSMC | Broadcom | Celestica | Celestica | 2H26 | ||||
| TPUv8t | 3nm TSMC | Mediatek (back-end & I/O) | Celestica | Celestica | 2H26 | ||||
| Axion (CPU) | 5nm TSMC | Marvell (back-end) | DDR5 576GB | 1H24 | |||||
| Axion 2 (CPU) | 3nm TSMC | GUC (wafer logistics mgnt) | 2026 | ||||||
| MSFT | |||||||||
| Maia 100 | 5nm TSMC | GUC (wafer logistics mgnt) | n.a. | HBM2e 64GB (4x16) | 1,800 GB/s | 1H24 | Project has failed | ||
| Maia 200 | 3nm TSMC | Marvell (back-end) | 2026 | ||||||
| Cobalt 100 (CPU) | 5nm TSMC | GUC (wafer logistics mgnt) | DDR5 12 channel | 2H24 | ARM | ||||
| Cobalt 200 (CPU) | 3nm TSMC | GUC (wafer logistics mgnt) | 2026 | ARM | |||||
| Meta | |||||||||
| MTIA | 7nm TSMC | Broadcom | n.a. | Wiwynn | LPDDR5 128GB | 2H23-1H24 | RISC-V (Andes) | ||
| MTIA v2 | 5nm TSMC | Broadcom | Wiwynn | LPDDR5 128GB | 204.8 GB/s | 2H25 | |||
| MTIA v3/MTIA T-V1 | 3nm TSMC | Broadcom | Quanta / Celestica | HBM3E | 2H26 | ||||
| (CPU gen 1) | 3nm TSMC | SocioNext | 2026 | ARM | |||||
| Intel (Habana) | |||||||||
| Gaudi 2 | 7nm TSMC | Alchip (back-end) | Accton | Wiwynn | HBM2E 96GB (6x16) | 2,450 GB/s | 2H23 | ||
| Gaudi 3 | 5nm TSMC | Alchip (back-end) | Accton | Wiwynn | HBM2E 128GB (8x16) | 3,700 GB/s | 2H24 | ||
| Falcon shores | Cancelled |
Jaguar Shores Intel 18A
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Figure 4 - Alchip - Earnings estimate revisions
| NT$m | 2025A - New | 2025A - Old | 2025A - Diff % | 2027E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - New | 2028E - Old | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 66,827 | 58,887 | 13.5% | 126,000 | 89,350 | 41.0% | 157,000 | 117,785 | 33.3% |
| Gross profit | 16,863 | 15,151 | 11.3% | 25,200 | 19,657 | 28.2% | 31,400 | 25,913 | 21.2% |
| GM % | 25.2% | 25.7% | 20.0% | 22.0% | 20.0% | 22.0% | |||
| Operating profit | 12,789 | 11,429 | 11.9% | 20,160 | 15,190 | 32.7% | 25,708 | 20,488 | 25.5% |
| OPM % | 19.1% | 19.4% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 16.4% | 17.4% | |||
| Pretax income | 14,263 | 12,875 | 10.8% | 21,199 | 16,575 | 27.9% | 26,347 | 21,873 | 20.5% |
| Net income | 11,841 | 10,681 | 10.9% | 17,705 | 13,844 | 27.9% | 22,009 | 18,269 | 20.5% |
| EPS (NT$) | 141.59 | 129.37 | 9.4% | 209.90 | 165.24 | 27.0% | 260.93 | 218.06 | 19.7% |
Source: Macquarie Research, September 2026
Figure 5 - Alchip - Monthly sales
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Figure 6 - Alchip - QFII holdings (%)
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Figure 7 - Alchip - P&L
| NT$m | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 4,187 | 7,640 | 25,000 | 30,000 | 30,000 | 31,000 | 32,000 | 33,000 | 51,969 | 30,926 | 66,827 | 126,000 | 157,000 |
| Gross Profit | 2,101 | 2,662 | 5,500 | 6,600 | 6,000 | 6,200 | 6,400 | 6,600 | 10,201 | 8,154 | 16,863 | 25,200 | 31,400 |
| Operating Profit | 1,368 | 1,647 | 4,375 | 5,400 | 4,800 | 4,960 | 5,120 | 5,280 | 6,496 | 5,017 | 12,789 | 20,160 | 25,708 |
| PBT | 1,784 | 2,035 | 4,722 | 5,722 | 5,097 | 5,232 | 5,367 | 5,502 | 7,808 | 6,720 | 14,263 | 21,199 | 26,347 |
| Net profit | 1,428 | 1,639 | 3,967 | 4,807 | 4,282 | 4,291 | 4,509 | 4,622 | 6,446 | 5,598 | 11,841 | 17,705 | 22,009 |
| EPS (NT$) | 17.55 | 20.01 | 47.03 | 56.99 | 50.77 | 50.87 | 53.46 | 54.80 | 81.51 | 69.22 | 141.59 | 209.90 | 260.93 |
| Profitability | |||||||||||||
| Gross Margin | 50.2% | 34.8% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 19.6% | 26.4% | 25.2% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Operating Margin | 32.7% | 21.6% | 17.5% | 18.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| Pretax Margin | 42.6% | 26.6% | 18.9% | 19.1% | 17.0% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 21.7% | 21.3% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| Net Margin | 34.1% | 21.4% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 18.1% | 17.7% | 14.1% | 14.0% |
| Sequential Growth | |||||||||||||
| Sales | -11.4% | 82.5% | 227.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | |||||
| Gross Profit | 5.2% | 26.7% | 106.6% | 20.0% | -9.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | |||||
| Operating Profit | 12.6% | 20.4% | 165.7% | 23.4% | -11.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | |||||
| Pretax Profit | 2.7% | 14.1% | 132.1% | 21.2% | -10.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | |||||
| Net Profit | -3.7% | 14.8% | 142.1% | 21.2% | -10.9% | 0.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | |||||
| EPS | -4.2% | 14.0% | 135.1% | 21.2% | -10.9% | 0.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | |||||
| YoY Growth | |||||||||||||
| Sales | -60.1% | -16.5% | 280.5% | 534.6% | 616.5% | 305.8% | 28.0% | 10.0% | 70.5% | -40.5% | 116.1% | 88.5% | 24.6% |
| Gross Profit | -13.5% | 41.1% | 198.8% | 230.4% | 185.6% | 132.9% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 50.1% | -20.1% | 106.8% | 49.4% | 24.6% |
| Operating Profit | -8.5% | 43.2% | 278.1% | 344.4% | 251.0% | 201.2% | 17.0% | -2.2% | 72.7% | -22.8% | 154.9% | 57.6% | 27.5% |
| Pretax Profit | -0.5% | 27.2% | 196.9% | 229.5% | 185.7% | 157.1% | 13.7% | -3.8% | 86.0% | -13.9% | 112.3% | 48.6% | 24.3% |
| Net Profit | -2.4% | 23.8% | 198.8% | 224.1% | 199.9% | 161.9% | 13.7% | -3.8% | 93.8% | -13.1% | 111.5% | 49.5% | 24.3% |
| EPS | -3.2% | 22.3% | 186.8% | 210.9% | 189.2% | 154.2% | 13.7% | -3.8% | 78.8% | -15.1% | 104.5% | 48.2% | 24.3% |
Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Figure 8 - Alchip - 12-month forward P/E band
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Figure 9 - Alchip - 12-month forward P/B band
Source: TEJ, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Figure 10 - IC design - P/E valuation
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2026
Note: Priced as of market close of 18 September 2026.
Key Quant Findings
The quant model currently holds a reasonably negative view on Alchip Technologies. The strongest style exposure is Quality, indicating this stock is likely to have a superior and more stable underlying earnings stream. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future.
Macquarie Alpha Model: Key rankings
The Macquarie Quant's flagship Alpha model is a dynamic multi-factor model based on a staple of quant factors such as value, momentum, revisions, quality, and risk.
| Global - Whole Universe | Market (Country) - Taiwan | Sector - Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equip. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie Alpha Model | 13140/17994 | 696/976 | 442/675 |
| Fundamental (Consensus) * | 2969/17994 | 85/976 | 147/675 |
Current and Historical Alpha Model Rank
The chart shows the Macquarie Alpha model market ranking against the company's peers and over recent history.
Drivers of Stock Return
Breakdown of 1-year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.
Alpha Model Decomposition
The Macquarie Alpha is decomposed into its sector and market relative factor & styles exposures (a higher/better percentile is coded in green, whilst lower in red).
| Factors / Styles | Percentile relative to - sectors (/675) | Percentile relative to - market (/976) | Core factors in definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHA | 35% | 29% | Built from the styles below |
| VALUE | 57% | 12% | Book, CF, Yield, Earnings Multiples |
| ANALYST | 47% | 79% | Revisions (Earnings, Recommendations) |
| MOMENTUM | 7% | 22% | Price Momentum |
| GROWTH | 39% | 61% | EPS, Sales (Forecast, Historic) |
| PROFITABILITY | 65% | 88% | ROE, Margin, Asset Turnover |
| QUALITY | 93% | 98% | Accruals, Earn Stability, Cash Conversion |
| CAPITAL | 76% | 37% | Investment/Capex, Net share issuance |
| LIQUIDITY | 30% | 34% | Size, Turnover, Analyst Coverage |
| LOW RISK | 92% | 86% | Beta, Volatility, Earn.Cert, Leverage |
| TECHNICAL | 97% | 97% | MACD, RSI, Bollinger, Williams R, etc |
Factors driving the Alpha Model vs peers
For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall raw Alpha score.
Macquarie Style Returns over last year
Recent performance to Macquarie style factors
Source (all charts): FactSet, Refinitiv, and Macquarie Quant. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative Team: maccapequitiesresearchquantglobal@macquarie.com. Explanation for items on this page can be found at https://www.macquarieinsights.com/rp/d/r/p/OTUyMzg1
| Asia Ex JP | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Aug - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Jul - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Jun - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - May - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Apr - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Mar - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Feb - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Jan - 26 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Dec - 25 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Nov - 25 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Oct - 25 | Monthly Factor Long-Short Returns for - Sep - 25 | Last 5 Years (ann) | Last 10 Years (ann) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHA | 6% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | -3% | 10% | 6% |
| VALUE | 1% | 19% | -5% | 1% | -7% | 6% | 0% | -2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | -4% | 13% | 5% |
| ANALYST | 14% | -12% | 7% | 4% | 12% | -2% | 0% | 6% | 5% | -2% | 3% | 4% | 16% | 14% |
| MOMENTUM | 14% | -35% | 15% | 17% | 19% | -4% | 5% | 8% | 6% | -1% | -2% | 0% | -2% | 4% |
| GROWTH | 8% | -19% | 9% | 7% | 7% | -4% | -1% | 4% | 2% | -2% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| PROFITABILITY | 1% | 3% | 6% | 1% | -4% | 3% | 0% | -4% | 1% | 3% | 0% | -4% | -2% | -2% |
| QUALITY | 0% | 7% | -3% | -2% | -4% | 2% | -1% | -4% | -1% | 1% | -4% | -6% | -4% | -2% |
| CAPITAL | -7% | 14% | -7% | -1% | -12% | 2% | -2% | 2% | -1% | 3% | -3% | -1% | 2% | -4% |
| LIQUIDITY | -1% | -11% | 8% | 10% | 7% | -1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% | 3% | -2% | 2% |
| LOW RISK | -13% | 29% | -6% | -8% | -13% | 6% | -2% | -8% | -2% | 5% | 1% | -6% | -7% | -7% |
Analysts
Jeffrey Ohlweiler
+8862 2734 7512
jeffrey.ohlweiler@macquarie.com
Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch