報告_MS_貿聯_20260705

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_貿聯_20260705_original.pdf

原始內容

M July 5, 2026 11:31 PM GMT

Bizlink | Asia Pacific

ECB and GDR Announcement

We believe these plans are aimed at financing the Interplex deal, and dilution of up to 6% is consistent with our prior expectation vs. the conservatively estimated earnings contribution of 8% in 2027.

What's new:

• Bizlink announced that it plans to issue 4.5-6.0mn common GDR shares and up to US$500mn of ECBs
• This is likely related to financing the recent acquisition of Interplex, priced at up to US$900mn (US$850mn of enterprise value + US$50mn of contingent considerations)

Our view:

• Our understanding is that these, along with its existing bank credits of NT $16.7bn as of 1Q26, are among the financing options that Bizlink is considering
• Looking at these two issuances, we estimate dilution of up to 6%, assuming the ECB conversion price is set at a 25% premium over the last close of NT $1,995 and another 6mn GDR shares are issued, which implies Bizlink could raise US$879mn in total (based on USDTWD at 31.6)
• As we mentioned in our report post the Interplex deal, Interplex could incrementally add 8% to revenue and earnings for Bizlink in 2027, assuming the same US$392mn of revenue (12M accumulated as of 1Q26) in 2027 with a similar net margin of ~15%
• We therefore maintain the view that the acquisition of Interplex is a good deal for Bizlink from both strategic and financial perspectives
• Stay OW with a PT of NT$3,665 (30x 2027e P/E).

Update

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Derrick Yang

Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2862

Vivi Huang

Research Associate

Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2860

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com

+852 2239-7689

Bizlink (3665.TW, 3665 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Stock Rating Industry View

Overweight In-Line

Price target

NT$3,665.00

Shr price, close (Jul 3, 2026)

NT$1,995.00

52-Week Range

NT$3,010.00-808.00 193

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

NT$385,765

EV, curr (mn)

NT$391,341

Avg daily trading value (mn)

NT$5,797

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For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

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Potential Share Dilution Calculation

Exhibit 1: Potential share dilution calculation

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

Bizlink (3665.TW)

Base case, derived from 30x 2027e P/E. We think our target P/E multiple is justified by an earnings CAGR of 46% seen over 2025-28e, which implies a PEG of around 0.7. This is in-line with the average of 0.7 in 2019-24, when the stock was trading at an average 13x P/E for a 19% earnings CAGR.

Risks to Upside

• n Faster and wider AEC adoption
• n Data center and semi equipment capex increases that drive stronger HPC and semi-cap business
• n Stronger recovery for automotive business

Risks to Downside

• n Lower-than-expected AEC adoption
• n Intensifying competition
• n Softer-than-expected AI capex
• n Slower-than-expected growth in the semi capital equipment market
• n Continued weakness in the auto industry

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Disclosure Section

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圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-06）