PDF 原檔：報告_MS_貿聯3665_20260902_original.pdf
原始內容
M September 2, 2026 05:02 AM GMT
Bizlink | Asia Pacific
Read-across from Credo's FY1Q27 Results
We see positive implications for Bizlink from Credo's comments on expanding AEC and emerging ALC opportunities.
FY1Q27 (ended July 2026) results:
- Credo (CRDO.US, not covered) reported revenue of US$479mn (+10% QoQ/ +115% YoY), roughly in line with the consensus of US$474mn and guidance of US$465-475mn.
- Non-GAAP GM was 68% (-0.3ppt QoQ) in line with consensus at 68% and guidance at 67-69%.
- Non-GAAP NP was US$236mn (+4% QoQ/+140% YoY), roughly in line with consensus at US$232mn.
- Four customers each contributed more than 10% of Credo's revenue in FY1Q27, i.e., 33%, 28%, 13% and 10%, respectively.
FY2Q27 and FY27 outlook:
- FY2Q27 revenue is guided to be US$525-535mn (+11% QoQ/+98% YoY at the midpoint, largely in line with consensus of US$526mn), non-GAAP GM of 6769% (vs. consensus at 67.5%) and opex of US$100-105mn.
- For FY27, Credo now expects total revenue to grow >85% YoY (vs. consensus at ~86% YoY), with an inflection in 2H mainly from optical revenue (>US$600mn for FY27 from Zero-Flap Optics, silicon photonics PICs and optical DSPs, with each to contribute >US$100mn).
- Credo expects its FY27 GM to stay flat YoY, while operating expenses might increase by ~55% YoY.
- 1.6T AEC might start to emerge from 2HFY27.
- ALCs and OmniConnect gearboxes remain on track for initial revenue from FY28, management believes both are multi-billion dollar opportunities for Credo.
- It also sees increasing customer activity on NPO for scale up network, with
- confirmed PIC design wins for ramp in FY28.
Bizlink Read-across:
- We see positive implications from Credo's comments on the AEC's spec upgrade and its penetration into more hyperscalers and neoclouds, as well as the reiterated timing of ALC ramp in FY28.
- We stay constructive on Bizlink for its multiple drivers in the AI deployment theme, including data/power interconnects and semi cap equipment.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Derrick Yang
Equity Analyst
Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com
Vivi Huang
Research Associate
Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
Bizlink (3665.TW, 3665 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$3,665.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 58 |
| Shr price, close (Sep 1, 2026) | Shr price, close (Sep 1, 2026) | Shr price, close (Sep 1, 2026) | NT$2,315.00 | NT$2,315.00 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$3,010.00-946.00 | NT$3,010.00-946.00 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 193 | 193 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$447,642 | NT$447,642 |
| EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | NT$453,219 | NT$453,219 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$6,299 | NT$6,299 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 46.57 | 69.77 | 120.77 | 143.77 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 47.71 | 68.21 | 115.41 | 151.04 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 71,247 | 101,953 | 151,516 | 174,996 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 15,154 | 21,153 | 34,384 | 41,510 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 9,005 | 13,491 | 23,353 | 27,800 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 32.6 | 33.2 | 19.2 | 16.1 |
| P/BV | 6.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| RNOA (%) | 24.2 | 26.2 | 39.8 | 41.7 |
| ROE (%) | 24.9 | 28.9 | 40.8 | 36.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.1 | 21.2 | 12.8 | 10.2 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | (0.8) | 1.6 | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (0.9) | (8.3) | (19.1) | (32.5) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.