報告_MS_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_original.pdf

校正紀錄

本檔為 PDF 解析，已依 PDF 頁面渲染圖（p1）核對並修復下列漏字（解析漏掉數字與字母）；表格與免責段其餘單字漏字（如 Researc、Industry iew）未逐一修復，不影響數字。 - 「from >US$ bn to 25%」→「from >US$1bn to 25%」；「~ 5% YoY growth」→「~15%」；「c. US$ 4bn」→「c. US$14bn」；「~US$ 6bn」→「~US$16bn」；「prior US$ bn」→「US$1bn」 - 「2-inch silicon photonics capacity of 8kwpm」→「12-inch … 18kwpm」；「US$ .7- .8bn」→「US$1.7–1.8bn」 - 「0% improvement in 2027 blended wafer ASP」→「10%」；「5- 0%」→「5–10%」；「buy-side bogey of 0- 5%」→「10-15%」 - 「e timate」「Weak con umer」→ estimate／consumer

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-29）

原始內容

Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.

UMC(2303.TW, 2303 TT)

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update October 28, 2026 04:10 PM GMT

UMC | Asia Pacific

Near term in line but larger long-term AI opportunity; stay OW

Key Takeaways

• The company reported 3Q26 gross margin of 34%, slightly above our estimate and in line with consensus.
• 4Q26 wafer shipments should rise in low single digits (%) QoQ and wafer ASP should firm - both in line with our expectations.
• We forecast 4Q26 revenue to grow in low single digits QoQ with gross margin flat vs. 3Q26.

Larger AI opportunity into 2029: The company raised 2029 AI-related revenue guidance from >US$1bn to 25% of total revenue. Assuming ~15% YoY growth on our 2028e revenue (c. US$14bn), 2029 pro forma AI revenue could reach ~US$4bn (25% of ~US$16bn) - well above the prior US$1bn. Also, newly announced 12-inch silicon photonics capacity of 18kwpm could generate at least US$1.7–1.8bn assuming ~US$8k wafer ASP - not to mention newly announced capacity of another 22kwpm for DTC/silicon capacitors and 20kwpm for Teflon modulators.

2027 price hike plan in line with our estimate: The company guided for a 10% improvement in 2027 blended wafer ASP. Excluding better product mix, like-for-like wafer ASP would rise 5–10%, which is in line with our estimate but slightly below the buy-side bogey of 10-15%.

Weak consumer could be covered by other non-AI demand: UMC does see some weakness showing up in PCs and midrange/low-end smartphones, but communications, automotive, and industrial demand remains robust.

Exhibit 1: UMC: 3Q26 Earnings Review

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates, Visible Alp a.

M Update

Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus met odology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

UMC (2303.TW)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions: 9.2% cost of equity, 3.5% medium-term growth, and 3.0% terminal growth.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger-than-expected global economic and semiconductor growth
• n Looser pricing competition, increasing margins and utilization rates
• n Favorable customer mix changes

Risks to Downside

• n Softer-than-expected global economic and semiconductor growth
• n Increasing pricing competition, reducing margins and utilization rates
• n Unfavorable customer mix changes

M Update