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原始內容
M July 26, 2026 09:59 PM GMT
MediaTek | Asia Pacific
2Q26 results preview: Smartphone weak, but Cloud AI taking off; OW
3Q26 should mark the bottom of MediaTek's transition to a Cloud AI ASIC revenue cycle. We see a strong TPU revenue ramp starting in 4Q26 onward, which we expect will account for more than half of revenue by end-2027.
3Q26 revenue may be down 5% Q/Q, due to China smartphone weakness:
MediaTek will host its 2Q26 earnings call on July 31. We see very limited 3nm tensor processing unit (TPU) and less new flagship 2nm Dimensity 9600 smartphone SoC revenue in 3Q26. We therefore expect 3Q26 revenue to decline mid-single digits Q/ Q, given the China smartphone demand weakness, below the Consensus +2% Q/Q. We also expect GM to hold at 45-46% in both 2Q26 and 3Q26, given incremental substrate and foundry costs. See Exhibit 4 for our earnings preview. We also expect the company to maintain >US$2bn TPU revenue in 4Q26.
2027 TPU revenue guidance to be the key focus for this call: In our US semi analyst Joe Moore's recent report, Broadcom Inc.: In Defense of AVGO's ASIC Share (14 Jul 2026), we reconciled our global research view on the TPU ASIC service revenue split. Our view is that MediaTek participation is significant. Its 3nm TPU volume shipment may approach that of AVGO in 2027 (see Exhibit 1 ). However, AVGO should remain the majority TPU supplier over time, with ~80% revenue share, given higher ASP on higher gross margin.
That said, a 20% revenue share of MediaTek on a US$100bn TPU revenue TAM in 2027 still implies US$20bn revenue for MediaTek, higher than MediaTek's current US$7bn-US$12bn guidance. We therefore expect MediaTek to raise its 2027 TPU revenue guidance to US$12bn-US$15bn (vs. our forecast of around US$15bn).
Key questions to ask during the call:
- Progress of 2nm TPU and Intel EMIB-T production yield; any backup plan to use TSMC CoWoS?
- How about next-generation 1.4nm TPU v10 competition?
- Any updates on the second CSP customer?
- Any updates on ASIC TAM and MediaTek's market share in 2028, considering new Qualcomm competition in ASIC design service?
- AI smartphone: any killer apps, or partnerships with China or US LLM providers?
Maintain price target NT$5,588 and industry Top Pick: This implies 18x for 2028e EPS. We think that's still attractive vs. its 2025-28e revenue CAGR of >50%.
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Lucas Wang | +852 2848-7310 |
| Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
MediaTek (2454.TW, 2454 TT)
Top Pick
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$5,588.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 49 |
| Shr price, close (Jul 24, 2026) | NT$3,750.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$4,970.00- |
| 1,130.00 | |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 1,565 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$5,869,443 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$5,653,914 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$20,316 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 62.79 | 71.45 | 146.67 | 308.38 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 70.02 | 146.14 | 308.47 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 66.05 | 66.5 | 128.64 | 243.34 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 596.0 | 661.5 | 1,094.3 | 2,081.8 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 99.9 | 113.8 | 233.6 | 491.2 |
| $ bn) ROE (%) | 24.7 | 27.8 | 48.5 | 70.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 17.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
- e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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