PDF 原檔：報告_MS_矽力-KY6415_20260828_original.pdf
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| 報告_MS_矽力-KY6415_20260828_001.png | 82KB | 真資料圖 | 矽力-KY 股價與 MS 評等/目標價歷史走勢圖（2023/08–2026/08）。藍線為股價，紅色虛線階梯為歷次目標價（300→215→290→260→400→488→470→500→528→488→428→378→268→258→296→388），上方標註評等變動節點 U/A、O/I、O/A、E/A、U/A 等（Underweight/Overweight/Equal-weight 系列）。 |
原始內容
M August 28, 2026 11:10 AM GMT
Silergy Corp. | Asia Pacific
Keep UW as 2Q26 gross margin missed, but data center PMIC revenue starts to ramp up
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- 2Q26 gross margin miss came from cost pressure. The EPS beat came from a non-op capital gain.
- The company guided that 3Q26 revenue may grow Q/Q, as AI DC revenue can more than offset PC and consumer shortfalls.
- Stay UW - given investors' high expectations regarding analog IC cycle recovery and price hikes, we think Silergy's 2Q GM miss is negative for its stock.
2Q gross margin at 47%, below our 51.5% and consensus of 50.2%L In The
Foundry Floorplan: All boats riding on the same tide - mature node up-cycle begins, we downgraded Silergy to UW in view of margin pressure from foundry cost hikes and weak consumer demand. Server and optical PMIC exposure remains relatively small. Silergy's 2Q26 GM fell to 47% - it cannot yet pass through foundry costs to non-AI customers.
What's the trend we like from today's earnings call? The company's AI server board PMIC revenue looks to have more than doubled in 1H26, which we think should be ~5%-8% of total revenue (ahead of our 5% forecast). Combining enterprise SSD PMIC and optical modules with power supply-related PMIC, the company stated that AI data center revenue should already be 15%-16% of 2Q26 revenue.
Stay UW: In the same report, we estimated AI server power IC TAM at US$15bn in 2026, a 50% CAGR over the next two years, rising with global AI demand, which should more than offset weak consumer and smartphone semi demand. We believe Silergy needs to deliver its new SPS (smart power stage) chip to participate in the AI GPU power IC market.
Exhibit 1 : Silergy: 2Q26 Earnings Review
| (NT$ mn) | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ mn) | Actual | Q/Q | Y/Y | MS Est. | Consensus |
| Revenue | j:RRI | PICDh | IMCDh | D:DOK | D:jOO |
| GMcyh' | pTCRh | AMMKbps | AppDbps | DMCDh | DRCPh |
| Opex | yP:ROR' | jCDh | MDCRh | yP:RTM' | yP:RpK' |
| OPMcyh' | MPCph | pIDbps | Dpbps | MpCph | MpCPh |
| EPScyNTW' | pCRD | MRTCRh | MpTCIh | PCRT | PCPp |
Modest shortfall
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision lower
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Update
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Equity Analyst Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Silergy Corp. (6415.TW, 6415 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
Stock Rating
Underweight
Industry View
Attractive
Price target
NT$388.00
Up/downside to price target (%)
(15)
Shr price, close (Aug 28, 2026)
NT$458.00
52-Week Range
NT$694.00-174.50
Sh out, dil, curr (mn)
395
Mkt cap, curr (mn)
NT$180,777
EV, curr (mn)
NT$162,446
Avg daily trading value (mn)
NT$2,073
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 6.36 | 10.14 | 16.47 | 21.20 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 6.38 | 10.18 | 17.09 | 23.65 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 18,812 | 23,695 | 28,515 | 33,920 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 2,935 | 4,225 | 7,469 | 9,612 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 2,478 | 4,000 | 6,495 | 8,360 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 30.1 | 45.2 | 27.8 | 21.6 |
| P/BV | 2.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| RNOA (%) | 16.2 | 18.5 | 33.8 | 41.6 |
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