報告_MS_欣興3037_20260830

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_欣興3037_20260830_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-01）

原始內容

M August 30, 2026 02:46 PM GMT

Unimicron | Asia Pacific

Investigation relating to transshipping China-made PCB

Key Takeaways

• Limited fundamental impact to numbers and our positive view. We would view any pullback as a good opportunity to accumulate, especially if below NT$950.
• Our OW thesis on Unimicron is centered on its ABF story, and this investigation is related to its Hejiang site, which produces PCBs (2025 Annual Report).
• PCB (including HDI) was 36% of total revenue in 2Q26, but lower in terms of profits.
• The Hejiang factory that is under investigation was established in 1996-97, which seems to imply PCBs produced there are more likely non-AI related PCBs.

What happened? On August 28, the Taoyuan District Prosecutors Office directed investigators to visit Unimicron to conduct a search and investigation, primarily to examine matters relating to Offenses Against Agriculture, Industry, and Commerce.

• According to local media (Taipei Times, 30 Aug 2026), five defendants were released on bail ranging from NT$0.3M to NT$15M, and nine were released without bail.

Unimicron's official response: Unimicron announced it will fully cooperate with the investigative authorities. The matter primarily concerns a dispute over transshipping China-made boards to Taiwan for "Made in Taiwan" relabeling under the offense of obstructing agriculture, industry, and commerce. The individuals involved in the investigation include one general manager, one deputy general manager, and colleagues from the relevant departments. There is no material impact seen on the company's financial condition or business operations, but Unimicron said it will issue a material information announcement after the District Prosecutors Office provides a formal explanation.

Update

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AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

Unimicron (3037.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 15%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
• n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition
• n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity

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Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)

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Unimicron (3037.TW) - As of 08/30/26 GMT in TWD

Industry : Greater China Technology Hardware

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Stock Ratings: Querueight coo Equal-wight CE) Underweight. (Up Not-Rated (NR? No Rating Available inA

Industry View: Attractive cAp In-line tI

Effective January 15, 2014, the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific will be rated relative to the analyst's industry con industry team'so couerage. Effective January 10, 2014, the industry view benchmarks for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacitie are as follous! relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

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INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware

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