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原始內容
M July 29, 2026 01:27 PM GMT
Unimicron | Asia Pacific
2Q26 post-results briefing takeaways
Expansion of AI in the mix and solid position in EMIB-T projects signal strong long-term margin tailwinds. Stay OW.
Key Takeaways
- Management targets 50-60% overall company GM in the longer term.
- Unimicron is one of the three substrate suppliers developing EMIB-T substrates, with initial yield targets of 50%, ramping in CY27.
AI mix and proactive pricing to drive structural margin expansion: Management provided a positive outlook for revenue growth in 2H26 and guided for q/q GM expansion in 3Q26, supported by a rise of AI products in the mix, ongoing debottlenecking efforts, and proactive pricing adjustments. Moving into 2H26, management expects AI to reach 70%+ of the ABF substrate segment mix (including AI GPUs, ASICs, CPUs, and DPUs) and 65-70% within the PCB/HDI segment, driven by AI system boards and 800G/1.6T optical module boards.
In the longer term, management views a 50-60% GM as a reasonable structural range for the company: We believe this will be driven by Unimicron's improved pricing power from being a key technology partner for all of its chip customers, providing highly complex large-sized ABF substrates, and the integration of advanced technology, such as EMIB-T, rather than solely replying with like-for-like price hikes.
EMIB-T provides longer-term visibility: EMIB-T became a focus during the Q&A session. Unimicron confirmed that EMIB-T substrate mass production is scheduled for 2027, with an initial yield target of 50% across all three suppliers, including Unimicron and 2 Japanese suppliers. Yield is something to be monitored, but management appears to view the financial risk associated with EMIB-T as highly manageable, given that customers have promised a certain level of profitability to its substrate suppliers even if yield rates do not reach 50%. Also, with the lack of interposer in an EMIB-T package, more value-added is shifting to substrate makers, so they should command more favorable profits.
Elevated capex investments support strategic capacity build-outs: Signaling strong visibility into future demand, Unimicron has raised its 2026 capex plan to NT $53.7bn. This encompasses additional investments for long lead-time equipment purchases for Kuangfu (KF) plant 2 and Yangmei (YM) plant 2. Furthermore, construction for YM plant 3 is slated to commence between the end of 2026 and early 2027 to serve strategic customers. Unimicron is also retrofitting older capacity for 1.6T optical modules, which utilize mSAP technology. This will open up in 4Q26 to capture direct demand from hyperscalers seeking alternatives to Chinese suppliers.
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2989 |
|---|---|
| Irene Yen Research Associate Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2869 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Unimicron (3037.TW, 3037 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line | |||
| Price target EV, curr (mn) Avg daily trading value | (mn) 3.93 | 16.08 | NT$1,465.00 | |
| (%) | 113 | |||
| Up/downside to price target Shr price, close (Jul 29, | 2026) | NT$688.00 | ||
| 52-Week Range | NT$1,130.00-128.18 | |||
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 3.7 | 46.3 | 1,505 | |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | 12/25 131,241 | 12/26e | US$456 12/27e | US$31,992 US$34,352 12/28e |
| Fiscal Year Ending EPS (NT$)** EPS (NT$)§ | 4.34 | 14.85 | 33.48 33.71 | 58.07 52.70 |
| 184,755 | 355,074 | |||
| 265,117 | ||||
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 26,272 | 45,798 | 131,827 | |
| ModelWare net inc | 84,898 | |||
| (NT | 6,673 | 51,521 | 89,367 | |
| $ mn) P/E | 50.7 | 22,855 | 20.6 | 11.8 |
| P/BV | 3.2 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 |
| RNOA (%) | 11.3 | 25.6 | 41.9 | |
| ROE (%) | 6.7 | 21.4 | 40.7 | 53.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.2 | 12.7 | 7.8 | |
| Div yld (%) | 15.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| FCF yld ratio (%) | 0.7 (0.6) | 2.8 | 7.2 | 10.8 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (8.6) | (31.2) | (64.3) | (86.1) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.