報告_MS_旺宏2337_3Q26_20261027

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原始內容

M Update October 27, 2026 02:13 PM GMT

Macronix International Co Ltd | Asia Pacific

Pricing hike lifts margin further; shifting from NOR toward NAND

AlphaSignals arnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest short all

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

Source: Company data Morgan Stanley Research

3Q earnings affected by capacity reallocation:

• 3Q revenue: NT$24.2bn, +27% Q/Q, +195% Y/Y, 9% below our est mate; we c te to capac ty trans t on from NOR to NAND.
• Gross marg n: 70.5%, +6.1ppt Q/Q, +57.0ppt Y/Y, 2.7ppt above our est mate - helped by ~NT$750mn nventory reversal, mostly assoc ated w th NOR..
• EPS: NT$5.52, +41% Q/Q, 13% below our est mate.
• Employee compensat on accruals led to a 24% Q/Q operat ng expense ncrease.

Shifting focus to NAN : NOR revenue ncreased 21% Q/Q desp te a 12% Q/Q decl ne n b t sh pments, cons stent w th pr c ng strength. Management attr buted lower NOR sh pments to capac ty reallocat on toward NAND; NAND revenue rose 39% Q/Q, ma nly from pr c ng.

The f rst phase of capac ty expans on s scheduled to enter volume product on n 2H27; the add t onal NT$15.8bn nvestment could contr bute n 2028.

Incremental capac ty w ll favor NAND, n part cular 3D NAND-based eMMC ( .e., MLC NAND), w th no planned ncrease n NOR capac ty. The company w ll gradually w thdraw from ROM product.

consensus EPS

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

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Macronix International Co Ltd(2337.TW, 2337 TT)

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Stock Rating Industry View

Price target

Overweight Attractive

NT$220.00

Up/downside to price target (%)

114

Shr price close (Oct 27 2026)

NT$103.00

52-Week Range NT$192.00-28.50

Sh out dil curr (mn)

1 805

Mkt cap curr (mn)

NT$185 892

EV curr (mn)

NT$188 597

Avg daily trading value (mn)

NT$13 503

Unless otherwise noted all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW)

Base case, P/B, n l ne w th our Greater Ch na memory coverage, due to the ndustry's cycl cal nature. We apply a target mult ple of 2.1x to our 2027 BVPS est mate vs. ts h stor cal average of 1.5x s nce 2017. We cont nue to bel eve the P/B target s just f able, as the MLC and legacy TLC NAND could be n greater shortage nto 2H26, w th under-supply eas ly reach ng 40%. We bel eve the only suppl er that could f ll the gap rema ns Macron x.

Risks to Upside

• nW der legacy NAND supply/demand gap
• n NOR up-cycle, dr ven by l m ted supply expans on and/or stronger demand
• n Faster growth for Sw tch hardware and core t tles

Risks to Downside

• n Less severe legacy NAND supply/demand gap
• n NOR down-cycle, dr ven by faster supply expans on and/or demand weakness
• n Slower growth for Sw tch hardware and core t tles

M Update

Disclos re Section

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