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原始內容
M July 28, 2026 01:04 PM GMT
Macronix International Co Ltd | Asia Pacific
GM could reach 80-90% within six months
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Strengthens our thesis
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
Remain OW.
- We recently addressed recent memory price volatility: we believe legacy memory may enjoy stronger pricing.
- We expect a 50-60% Q/Q price hike for SLC/MLC NAND in 3Q, and a 30-40% Q/ Q price hike for NOR Flash in 3Q.
- We also expect some valuation support for Macronix.
- It currently trades at 1.4x 2028E P/B; 1.0x has historically been a strong downside support level for Greater China IDM companies.
2Q earnings beat:
- Macronix reported 2Q26 revenue of NT$19.1bn, +83% Q/Q and +181% Y/Y, 34% above our estimate, driven mostly by NAND.
- Gross profit was NT$12.3bn, with GM of 64.4%, +23.6ppt Q/Q and +48.8ppt Y/Y, 23.4ppt above our estimate.
- EPS was NT$3.91, +334% Q/Q and 171% above our estimate.
- ~NT$900mn of inventory writeback was booked in 2Q, mostly related to NOR Flash.
Capacity and capex: The company announced NT$15.8bn in incremental capex (on top of the NT$22bn previously announced) for advanced capacity for both NOR and 3D NAND. Additional NOR capacity is expected to become available in 1H27, and additional 3D NAND capacity is expected to become available in 2H27. The company now targets total 12-inch capacity of 30kwpm.
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Update
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | |
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Lucas Wang Research Associate | +852 3963-2287 |
| Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate | |
| +852 2239-7731 | |
| Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com |
Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW, 2337 TT)
Top Pick
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
Stock Rating Industry View
Overweight Attractive
Price target
NT$220.00
Up/downside to price target (%)
95
Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026)
NT$113.00
52-Week Range
NT$192.00-18.00 1,805
Sh out, dil, curr (mn)
Mkt cap, curr (mn)
NT$203,940
EV, curr (mn)
NT$206,644
Avg daily trading value (mn)
NT$10,314
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.