報告_MS_友達2409_20260730

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_友達2409_20260730_original.pdf

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原始內容

M July 30, 2026 04:57 PM GMT

AU Optronics | Asia Pacific

New Applications for Glass to Take Longer

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

We don't see any strong catalysts from here with a lukewarm outlook for its core business and limited contributions from new applications. Stay EW.

3Q26 guidance below seasonal: Management guided for display revenue (48% of 2Q26 mix) to decline modestly QoQ as consumer electronics demand should be relatively soft amid elevated component costs and earlier restocking in 1H26. Mobility revenue (29% of 2Q26 mix) should remain roughly flat QoQ as Europe enters the slow season and China sees weakening demand. Vertical revenue (19% of 2Q26 mix) is expected to rise by low single digits % QoQ as orders from commercial displays and green solutions remain stable. We view 3Q26 guidance as below seasonal, although the revenue mix might turn a bit more favorable since the mobility and vertical business generated higher operating margins of 3.8% and 5.6%, respectively, vs. display at -3.2% in 2Q26. For the longer term, it maintains its target to have 70% of revenue from mobility and vertical solutions by 2030 (vs. 43% in 2025).

New business initiatives to take time : For glass in advanced packaging, AUO has been developing the TGV and RDL process for FOPLP and glass core. It is engaging with potential customers for LEO antenna modules and micro LED optical modules, which we think might see only limited revenue contribution in the coming years. Similar to its display supply chain peers, it is looking into the glass core substrate space and thinks it might take another 2-3 years for the process to mature. Mini/ micro LED is still on AUO's agenda for wearables and automobile applications. though we think the complexity in its process remains a big hurdle for this ultimate display technology to be commercialized in mainstream use cases. For CPO, it is in the designing and sampling process with one optical interconnect supplier, although we think it will take more time for AUO's integrated solution (micro LED + photodiode + glass substrate) to be adopted as the industry is still trying to sort out all of the issues in the current architecture.

More asset disposals : AUO announced plans to sell its Kaohsiung and Huaya fabs for expected gains of NT$4.28bn and NT$13.39bn, respectively; timing for recognition has not been finalized.

Stay EW: With a lackluster outlook for its core business and emerging businesses taking more time for contribution, we don't see any strong catalysts.

Modest upside

Financial results versus consensus

Modest revision higher

Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS

Update

AU Optronics (2409.TW, 2409 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

• e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

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Results Summary

Exhibit 1: AUO: Results summary

Source: Company data, Factset consensus, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Earnings turnaround in 2Q26 : Off revenue of NT$70,891mn (+3% QoQ/+2% YoY), gross margin expanded by 1.2ppt to 13% on a more favorable product mix and improving operating efficiency. With the opex ratio flat QoQ at 12.7%, operating profit was NT $218mn, slightly better than MSe of a NT$153mn loss but in line with consensus of profit NT$238mn.

With a non-op gain of NT$2,533mn (mainly from asset disposal gain of ~NT$2.3bn), net income came in at NT$1,343mn (EPS NT$0.18), surpassing our expectation of NT$65mn (EPS NT$0.01) and consensus of NT$356mn (EPS NT$0.05).

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

AU Optronics (2409.TW)

Base case, 2026e P/B of 1.4x. We believe price/book value better reflects AUO's intrinsic value, in view of the industry's relatively cyclical nature. The stock's mid-cycle average has been 0.8x P/B, but it has re-rated due to its CPO and LEO businesses. We see our target multiple as reasonable in consideration of the company's business diversification efforts, although they will take time to contribute.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger-than-expected end-demand
• n Disciplined capacity control among peers
• n Favorable panel pricing environment
• n Faster progress on new business initiatives

Risks to Downside

• n Macro headwinds leading to weak demand
• n Faster yield improvement among Chinese players, leading to more supply
• n Faster OLED panel adoption among large-size applications
• n Slower progress on new business initiatives

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Disclosure Section

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