報告_MS_力旺3529_20260908

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_力旺3529_20260908_original.pdf

原始內容

M September 8, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific

Quantum Security / eMemory: Investor Feedback

Low investor expectations, mostly a teach-in - eMemory remains under-owned and under-researched, so feedback was largely educational rather than push-back; we see this as the marketing opportunity.

Key Takeaways

• Under-owned, mostly a teach-in: feedback was largely educational, not push-back - the marketing opportunity; clients called the level 'a good entry point'.
• August sales momentum: NT$357mn, +42.8% Y/Y; 8M26 +21.9% Y/Y (8th straight month of Y/Y growth).
• Reiterate Overweight, PT NT$3,330: ~30% further upside, plus free optionality on a US$310mn base-case PUF-PQC TAM by 2030.

What we published - and the feedback . On 17 August we released the Global Foundation 'Hardware Quantum Security - Building Defenses for Q-Day and Beyond' with our eMemory OW initiation (PT NT$3,330) : as quantum computing nears (base case ~2030), a new hardware-security layer must be deployed 3-5 years ahead, with physical unclonable function (PUF)-based Root-of-Trust IP adding 5-10% to the semi IP market. Feedback was constructive - clients agree the 'Harvest Now, Decrypt Later' risk and 2030-31 migration deadlines make this a multi-year, nonbinary theme. The recurring point - and our marketing opportunity - is that Aspeed is already well-owned while eMemory stays under-researched by global funds.

Debate 1 - sizing the TAM. The key question is whether PUF is truly required once post-quantum cryptography (PQC) arrives. We size a PUF-PQC TAM of ~US$310mn by 2030 (base) , US$600mn bull / US$190mn bear, on ~25% PQC adoption and ~50% PUF attach, with datacenter/AI servers the largest royalty pool. Once PQC is implemented, secure key generation/storage makes PUF the logical anchor - so sensitivity sits on PQC pace, not PUF attach. We view eMemory's NeoPUF as best-inclass: near-zero bit-error rate, lower area/power, and superior advanced-node scaling vs. SRAM PUF.

Debate 2 - is eMemory the right proxy? Yes. The case rests on the core royalty engine : royalties are the majority of earnings and tied to customer production, so as mix shifts to leading-edge nodes, higher wafer values lift royalty per design-win. Advanced-node projects are already >50% of licensing non-recurring engineering (NRE) revenue. This is corroborated by the just-reported August sales of NT $357mn, +42.8% Y/Y (8M26 +21.9% Y/Y, 8th straight month of growth) ; royalties were 60.8% of 2Q26 revenue (+7.8% Y/Y) and management guides for royalty growth to accelerate into 2H26 on advanced-node ASPs and new apps (OTP, NeoFlash/1T Flash, PUF-PQC). (Continued in the next section)

Idea

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Daniel Yen, CFA

Equity Analyst

Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2863

Charlie Chan

Equity Analyst

Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-1725

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Daisy Dai, CFA

Equity Analyst

Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com

+852 2848-7310

Ethan Jia

Research Associate

Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com

+852 3963-2287

Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Asia Pacific Industry View

Attractive

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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Our view and stock calls. Reiterate OW, PT NT$3,330 (~30% upside from NT$2,570) - a rare mix of a defensive, high-visibility royalty stream (100% gross margin, ~63% ROE) plus free optionality on the post-quantum build-out, alongside Synopsys (OW) and adopter Aspeed (OW). Catalysts: monthly-sales momentum, the advanced-node royalty ramp, PQC design-win news-flow and San Jose OCP in Oct 2026. Risks: 1) semi downturn, 2) PUF-PQC competition, 3) slower quantum/PQC adoption. Net-net, eMemory is an under-owned name where the royalty re-rating and quantum-security theme are both intact.

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Space / Satellite

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pace to ground A satecite Una

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Unit Cell

Manufactures

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ATLANTIC

SRAM PUF

OQC

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Hamming Weight

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Rack-to-Rack

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QUIC

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Key Charts and Exhibits

HAMAMATSU

Operation Temperature

Components

East-west traffic, NICs, routers

2

Software

1

Die-to-Die

Security/

Encryption

NTT L'LIGENTEC

Any Temp

Zurich

-40~125 °C

< 85°C

Exhibit 1: We project the quantum infrastructure TAM will reach US$110bn by 2040 CISCO azscaler okta

Source: Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates.

Exhibit 3: The quantum hardware security TAM - our bull, base and bear cases

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates.

Exhibit 5: NeoPUF vs. SRAM PUF

Source: PUFsecurity

XFOR!

KEYSIGHT

aws

Exhibit 2: Global quantum supply chain - Hardware security is the foundation

Source: Morgan Stanley Research.

Exhibit 4: Quantum security across different connectivity layers

Source: Morgan Stanley Research.

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Exhibit 6: eMemory's OTP royalties from main foundries

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates.

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

eMemory Technology Inc (3529.TWO)

We derive our price target from a residual income model. We assume an 8.6% cost of equity (2.0% risk-free rate, 6.0% equity risk premium, and 1.1 beta), a payout ratio of 90%, a mediumterm earnings growth rate of 23.0%, and a terminal growth rate of 4.4%. Based on these assumptions, our RI model implies an equity value of NT$249bn, or NT$3,330 per share.

Risks to Upside

• n Faster-than-expected PUF adoption
• n Stronger-than-expected advanced-node OTP migration
• n Higher-than-expected royalty expansion from wafer value growth

Risks to Downside

• n Slower-than-expected adoption by key customers
• n Slower-than-expected PQC adoption
• n Increasing geopolitical and trade policy risks

Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions:

• n Cost of equity of 9.8% (2.0% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.3 beta)
• n Medium-term growth rate of 21.4%
• n Terminal growth rate of 5.5%
• n Cash payout ratio of 85%

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger cloud demand
• n Faster-than-expected spec migration
• n Mild competition

Risks to Downside

• n Softening cloud demand
• n Slower-than-expected spec migration
• n Intensified competition
• n Further policy tightening in China

Synopsys Inc. (SNPS.O)

The sector is trading on a 30-35x P/E multiple range. We expect Synopsys to trade in line and apply a c.33x P/E multiple to estimated FY26 EPS ($15.12).

Risks to Upside

• n Bigger ramp-up in AI ASICs and GPUs than modelled
• n Quicker recovery in Automotive & industrial
• n Design wins at expense of peers with Ansys products

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• n Strong recovery in IP business (esp. in China)

Risks to Downside

• n Scale and duration of downturn seeing deeper R&D cuts
• n Further tightening of export controls
• n Loss of share to new entrant EDA players given localisation trends
• n Failure to hit cost synergies from Ansys merger

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The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Charlie Chan; Daisy Dai, CFA; Daniel Yen, CFA.

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As of August 31, 2026, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: ACM Research Inc, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc, Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Co, Alchip Technologies Ltd, AllRing Tech Co., AP Memory Technology Corp, ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd., ASMPT Ltd, Aspeed Technology, Cambricon Technology Corporation, Dosilicon Co Ltd, eMemory Technology Inc, GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc, Gudeng Precision, Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd, Macronix International Co Ltd, Montage Technology Co Ltd, NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd, Nuvoton Technology Corporation, Phison Electronics Corp, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, SG Micro Corp., Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics, SICC Co Ltd, Silergy Corp., Silicon Motion, StarPower Semiconductor Ltd, Synopsys Inc., TSMC, UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor, WIN Semiconductors Corp, Winbond Electronics Corp, WinWay Technology Co Ltd, WPG Holdings, WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd..

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Analyst Industry Views

Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.

In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)

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Aspeed Technology (5274.TW0) - As of 09/08/26 GMT in TWD Industry : Greater China Technology Semiconductons

Stock Rating History: 9/1/21 : 0/I; 10/12/21 : 0/0; 5/20/22 : E.CF 10/4/22 : E./H; 1/11/20 : U/H; 2/22/20 : U/I; 7/7/25 : E./4; 11/6/20 : 0/4₽ 7/21/24 : 0/1; 9/15/24 : E/I; 6/9/25 : 0/1$ 7/14/25 : 0/4

Price Target History: 6/0/21 : 2111.57₽ 11/16/21 : 2609.02₽ 4/6/22 : 3005.79₽ 5/20/22 : 1960.47; 7/15/22 : 1900.64₽ 7/19/22 : 1545.45 ₽ 10/12/22 : 1450; 1/11/25 : 1977.27; 7/7/20 : 2060.64: 0/0/25 : 2090.91; 10/19/25 : 2060.64; 11/0/25 : 2060.64 5/7/24 : 9454.55; 6/9/24 : 4090.91: 6/7/24 : 4661.82: 9/15.24 : 4591.82₽ 1/8/25 : 3272.75₽ 2/6/25 : 2909.09$ 4/1/25 : 2727.27;

6/9/25 : 4545.46₽ 727/25 : 5545.46₽ 11/26/25 : 6818.18P 1/15/26 : 9090₽ 2/11/26 : 11222.70P 6/26/26 : 12261.82: 4/20/26 : 14140.91₽

4/29/26 : 18181.82P 5/26/26 : 21326.64₽ 7/26/26 : 20866/ 9/7/26 : 24000

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Date Format. : MM/DD/Y No Price Target. Assigned ‹NA. Stock Price (Not Couered by Current Analyst Stock Price (Cougred by Current Analyst 1m Stoch and Industry Ratings cabbreviations beloud appear as + Stock Rating/Industry View Stock Ratings: Querueight 600

Effective January 15, 2014, the stocks couered by Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific will be rated relative to the analust's industry for industry team's? courage.

Effective January 15, 2014, the industry view benchmarks for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific are as follous: releuant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

eMemory Technology Inc (3529.TWO) - As of 09/08/26 GMT in TWD Industry : Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Stock Rating History: 6/18/26 : 0/4

Price Target History: 8/18/26 : 9550

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Stock Price (Not Covered by Current Analyst? Stock Price (Covered by Current Analyst m

Stock Ratings: Quernight coo Equal-weight cE) Underweight. ius Not.-Rated CHRI

Stock and Industry Ratings abbreviations below, appear as + Stock Rating/Industry View

Etfective January 15, 2014, the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley Asia Pacifie will be rated relative to the analyst's industry cor industry team's? coverage.

Effective January 19, 2014, the industry view benchmarks for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific are as follous! relevant MSCI countr index or HSCI sub-ragional index or MECI PC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

No Price Target. Assigned ANA?

1000

9001

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

09/01

2025

2/27/26 : 480₽ 5/26/26 : 525; 8/19/26 : 500

Synopsys Inc. (SNPS.0) - As of 09/08/26 GMT in USD

Industry : Semiconductors

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715

???" - 540 550

Industry View: Attractive dAb In-line iI Cautious No Rating

Effective January 10, 2014, the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific will be rated relative to the analyst's industry cor industry team'si courage. Effective January 15, 2014, the industry view benchmarks for Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific are as follous! releuant MSCI country

index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacifie ex Japan Index.

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INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Daisy Dai, CFA

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