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原始內容
M July 31, 2026 12:30 PM GMT
Global Unichip Corp | Asia Pacific
Confirmed design win on next generation AI chip from US auto customer; OW
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Key Takeaways
- Next-generation Google CPU remains on track to tape out by late 2026 or early 2027.
- GUC has no problem with other packaging technology and will fully support customers if needed (we believe management is referring to Intel EMIB-T).
- Management is optimistic about 2027 wafer support from TSMC, and allocation should be finalized in the next two months.
- We stay OW on the stock given more CSP design wins and well-diversified revenue portfolio in coming years.
Confirmed design win on next generation Tesla AI6: Management stated that the design win on a next-generation US automotive customer's AI chip is confirmed. We believe it refers to Tesla AI6. Without a detailed timeline, management believes the AI6 tape-out schedule and PPA (power, performance, area) would both beat foundry competitors (Samsung), which we view as a good sign for GUC's AI6 share.
2H26 could show better shipments than 1H26: Management indicated more TSMC capacity support in 2H26, suggesting stronger shipment/revenue momentum H/H. Cloud-related revenue accounts for ~80% of total revenue, while crypto would ramp down, partially backfilled by automotive demand from China.
Who could be the largest customer to adopt CoWoS in 2027? Although management didn't share details on 2027 CoWoS customers, we believe it could relate to a Meta ASIC project and another European AI start-up.
Exhibit 1 : GUC - 2Q26 Earnings Review
| (NT$ mn) | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ mn) | Actual | Q/Q | Y/Y | MS Est. | Consensus |
| Financials | |||||
| Revenue | 13,897 | 21.4% | 127.6% | 13,606 | 12,713 |
| Opex | (1,318) | 2.2% | 20.9% | (1,358) | (1,353) |
| EPS (NT$) | 11.61 | -4.9% | 100.3% | 8.41 | 10.21 |
| Ratios | |||||
| GM (%) | 21.5% | -565bps | -1,177bps | 19.1% | 23.0% |
| Opex (%) | 9.5% | -178bps | -838bps | 10.0% | 10.6% |
| OPM (%) | 12.1% | -387bps | -340bps | 9.1% | 12.4% |
Source: Company data, Visible Alpha,
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2875 |
| Henry Zhao Research Associate Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7731 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW, 3443 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight | Overweight | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive | |||
| Price target | NT$5,688.00 | |||
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 49 | ||
| Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) | Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) | NT$3,805.00 | ||
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$5,950.00- | ||
| 1,160.00 | 1,160.00 | |||
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$513,188 | NT$513,188 | |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$8,149 | NT$8,149 | |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 27.95 | 44.04 | 124.37 | 189.50 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 27.83 | 46.48 | 94.24 | 164.31 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 34,141 | 61,536 | 148,903 | 240,937 |
| P/E | 76.0 | 86.4 | 30.6 | 20.1 |
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