報告_MS_亞德客1590_20261012

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_亞德客1590_20261012_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-13）

原始內容

M Update October 12, 2026 04:24 PM GMT

AirTAC International | Asia Pacific

September Sales Rose 3% MoM, 27% YoY

Here we focus on Airtac's monthly sales, which we belie e could be a catalyst for its share price.

What's new:

• September sales came in at NT$3,811mn (+3% MoM/+27% YoY .
• 3Q26 revenue was NT$11,512mn (-5% QoQ/+40% YoY , in line with our estimate of NT$11,586mn (-5% QoQ/+41% YoY but slightly better than consensus at NT$11,215mn (-8% QoQ/+36% YoY .
• By segment, shipments of machine tool (+35% YoY , energy & lighting (+30% YoY , electronics (+27% YoY and textiles (+25% YoY outperformed during the month.

Outlook:

• Both order booking and shipments continued to exceed company expectations in the month.
• Looking ahead, management remains positive on its growth outlook, driven by share gains and stimulus policies, which could help sustain the upcycle at least into 2027.
• We remain OW as current valuation at 18x 2027e P/E is undemanding vs. its mid-cycle average of 25x, though we think Hiwin (2049.TW might outperform on share price on the back of sequential growth in the top line and potentially GM in 3Q26.

Exhibit 1: AirTAC monthly sales vs. its share price since 2015

Source: Company data, TEJ, organ Stanley Research. Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown do not include transaction costs.

organ Stanley Taiwan Limited+

AirTAC International(1590.TW, 1590 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Unless ot erwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus met odology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update

AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction

Source:Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

AirTAC International (1590.TW)

Base case, 29x 2027e P/E. We believe this methodology better captures earnings growth momentum for industrial automation component plays (market sentiment moves along with business cycles . As the industry enters an up-cycle, we think applying a near-peak cycle valuation of 29x P/E is reasonable given the stronger business outlook.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger macroeconomic climate in China
• n Stronger-than-expected demand from industrial automation

Risks to Downside

• n Sharper economic downturn in China
• nMiniature linear guideway business development taking more time
• n Larger-than-expected investment in new products but weaker-than-expected demand

Hiwin Tec nologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Base case, P/E. We think this valuation methodology better captures Hiwin's earnings growth momentum, as its valuation tends to move with the business cycle. We apply a target multiple of 38x to our 2027 EPS estimate. We view this multiple as justified by the 47% operating profit CAGR we project for 2025-28.

Risks to Upside

• n Stronger industrial automation demand pickup.
• nMarket share gains.
• n Earlier-than-expected revenue contribution from humanoids.

Risks to Downside

• nWeaker industrial automation demand.
• nMore pricing pressure.
• nMarket share loss.
• nMore broad-based impact on the global economy from geopolitical risks.

M Update