PDF 原檔：報告_MS_上銀2049_20260907_original.pdf
原始內容
M September 7, 2026 03:48 PM GMT
Hiwin Technologies Corp. | Asia Pacific
August Sales +1% MoM/+42% YoY
In this report, we focus on Hiwin's monthly sales, which we believe could be a catalyst for its share price.
Details:
- August sales were NT$2,708mn (+1% MoM/+42% YoY).
- QTD revenue was 67% of our 3Q26 estimate, at NT$7,996mn (+6% QoQ/ +33% YoY), and 68% of consensus, at NT$7,884mn (+5% QoQ/+32% YoY).
Our view:
- We think 3Q26 is tracking slightly ahead of expectations.
- Looking into 2H26, we maintain the view that Hiwin should continue to see revenue growth amid the industry recovery and margin expansions driven by higher utilization/price hikes.
- We stay constructive on the stock, with current valuation at 29x 2027e P/E vs. a peak cycle level of 35-40x.
Exhibit 1 : Hiwin's monthly sales YoY vs. its share price since 2015
Source: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown do not include transaction costs. Source: Company data, TEJ, Morgan Stanley Research.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW, 2049 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$450.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 23 |
| Shr price, close (Sep 7, 2026) | NT$364.50 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$426.00-180.50 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 354 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | US$4,078 |
| EV, curr (mn) | US$4,067 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | US$45 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 4.31 | 9.77 | 11.77 | 13.77 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 24,263 | 29,992 | 34,688 | 39,123 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 4,001 | 6,485 | 7,488 | 8,431 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1,526 | 3,457 | 4,165 | 4,873 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 45.0 | 37.3 | 31.0 | 26.5 |
| P/BV | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| RNOA (%) | 3.6 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 12.7 |
| ROE (%) | 4.1 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.