報告_MS_iPhone與iPad月度出貨資料_20261014

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_iPhone與iPad月度出貨資料_20261014_original.pdf

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檔名	size	分類	親眼所見內容
`報告_MS_iPhone與iPad月度出貨資料_20261014_001.png`	221KB	真資料圖	Exhibit 1：iPhone Sell-in 各機型 × 季度數量表（1Q24–2025 實績、1Q26／2Q26、3Q26e／4Q26e／2026e 估），Total 列 3Q26e 54.0、4Q26e 72.0、2026e 234.0
`報告_MS_iPhone與iPad月度出貨資料_20261014_002.png`	169KB	真資料圖	Exhibit 2：iPad Sell-in 各機型 × 季度數量表，Total 列 3Q26e 11.5、4Q26e 10.3、2026e 46.8

原始內容

M Update October 14, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Monthly Databook: Lower legacy iPhone builds, but iPhone 18 is unchanged; lower iPad builds

Key Takeaways

3Q26e iPhone build unchanged at 54M unit (+4% q/q, -2% y/y).
4Q26e iPhone build lowered lightly to 72M unit (+33% q/q, -5% y/y).
3Q26e iPad build lowered lightly to 11.5M unit (-12% q/q, -18% y/y).
4Q26e iPad build lowered to 10.3M unit (-10% q/q, -26% y/y).

We keep our 3Q26 iPhone build estimate unchanged at 4M units (+4% q/q, -2% y/y). But we have made adju tment to new iPhone 18 build by lowering iPhone Duo by 0.5M unit to 0.5M, while rai ing iPhone 18 Pro Max by 0.5M unit to 8.5M. For 4Q, we lower our iPhone build estimate by 1M units to 72M units (+33% q/q, - % y/y), reflecting lower legacy iPhone model (iPhone 16/17e). Total new iPhone 18 model family unit remain at 71M unit (-21% y/y) in 2H26, with one le SKU launched compared to la t year. We continue to expect 7M unit of iPhone Duo build in 2H26. With iPhone Duo ale tarting oon, we will continue to monitor ramp-up progre for any up ide or down ide to build . Our revi ed full-year iPhone build foreca t implie CY26 hipment at 234M unit (+3% y/y).

Our 3Q26 iPad build forecast is lowered by 0. M units to 11. M units (-12% q/q, - 18% y/y). We lowered 3Q entry level iPad build due to pull-forward demand in 1H and the impact of ri ing price . We also lower our 4Q iPad build forecast by 0.7M units to 10.3M units (-10% q/q, -26% y/y). Our revi ed full-year iPad build foreca t implie CY26 hipment at 46.8M unit (-14% y/y).

Exhibit 1: iPh ne Sell-in Data, by Quarter

S urce: C mpany data, M rgan Stanley Research. e = M rgan Stanley Asia Research estimates based n c mpany ann uncements and supply chain checks.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2989
Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2862
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m	+852 2239-7689
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Irene Yen Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2869
Vivi Huang Research Ass ciate Vivi.Huang@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2860
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Betty Chen Research Ass ciate Betty.H.Chen@m rganstanley.c m	+852 2239-7213

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update

Exhibit : iPad Sell-in Data, by Quarter