PDF 原檔：報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260813_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260813_001.png |
194KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：iPhone Sell-in Data, by Quarter，mn units，1Q22–3Q26e，逐機型（SE3/XR/12/13/14/15/16/17/18 系列與 iPhone Fold）列出各季出貨量，末三行 Total／YoY／QoQ |
報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260813_002.png |
84KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 2：iPad Sell-in Data, by Quarter，mn units，1Q24–3Q26e，逐機型（iPad mini/Air/Pro 各代）列出各季出貨量，末三行 Total／YoY／QoQ |
報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260813_003.png |
66KB | 裝飾·banner | Asia Summer School 2026 泳池畔宣傳 banner |
原始內容
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Phone XR
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Phone 12 mini (5.4)
Phone 11
Phoce 12 (5. 17
Phobe 12 Pro (8.1))
Phone 12 Pro Mas (6.7)
Asia Summer School 2026
Phone 13 mini (5.40)
13 Руо Мая (8. 7)
15 Pro Max (6.7)
M August 13, 2026 09:00 PM GMT
15 Pro Man (6.90)
Phone 17 Pro (6.7))
Phobe 17 Prs Man (8.9)
Phone 18 Pro Man (6.9)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Monthly Databook: No change for 3Q iPhone but lower iPad builds
Key Takeaways
- 3Q26e iPhone build unchanged at 54M units (+4% q/q, -2% y/y).
- 3Q26e iPad build lowered to 12M units (-8% q/q, -14% y/y).
We keep our 3Q26 iPhone build estimate unchanged at 54M units (+4% q/q, -2% y/y). The slower y/y run rate reflects new model SKUs shifting to the premium segment (18 Pro/Pro Max and iPhone Fold), while the iPhone 18 model is scheduled for introduction in 1H27. We continue to expect 7-8M iPhone Fold builds in 2H26 (no change) and will monitor the ramp-up progress to see if there is any upside or downside to builds.
We lower our 3Q26 iPad build forecast by 1M units to 12M units (-8% q/q, -14% y/y), as we see slower builds heading into 2H, likely due to some pull-forward demand in 1H and impact from rising prices.
Exhibit 1 : iPhone Sell-in Data, by Quarter
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Asia Research estimates based on company announcements and supply chain checks.
Exhibit 2 : iPad Sell-in Data, by Quarter
| mnunits | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 2024 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26e | 3Q26e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPad Sell-in | |||||||||||||
| iPad mini 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad mini 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad mini 5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad mini 6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad mini 7 | - | - | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| The iPad (9.7") | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| The iPad (10.2") | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| The iPad (10.9") | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 23.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| iPad Air (10.5"/10.9"/11") | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| iPad Air (12.9"/13.0") | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| iPad Pro 12.9" | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 10.5" | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 12.9" Face ID (2018) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 11" Face ID (2018) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 12.9" Face ID (2020) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 11" Face ID (2020) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 12.9" Face ID (2021) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 11" Face ID (2021) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 12.9" Face ID (2022) | 1.0 | - | - | - | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 11" Face ID (2022) | 1.0 | - | - | - | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| iPad Pro 11" OLED (2024) | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| iPad Pro 12.9" OLED (2024) | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Total | 11.5 | 10.5 | 15.5 | 15.0 | 52.5 | 12.0 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 54.5 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| YoY | 10% | -9% | 19% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 38% | -10% | -7% | 4% | 0% | -10% | -14% |
| QoQ | -23% | -9% | 48% | -3% | -20% | 21% | -3% | 0% | -14% | 8% | -8% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. e = Morgan Stanley Asia Research estimates based on company announcements and supply chain checks.
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Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2989 |
|---|---|
| Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2862 |
| Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
| Irene Yen Research Associate Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2869 |
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Betty Chen Research Associate Betty.H.Chen@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7213 |
Greater China Technology Hardware
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Industry View
In-Line
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