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原始內容
Alchip
Solid Trn3 ramp at improving production margins; Trn4 chipset tape out on track
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 6,100 TWD | Price: 4,210 TWD
Resilient 2Q/2H26 GMs even with strong Trainium3 ramp
2Q26 sales was +83% QoQ with production business outgrowing NRE driven by initial contribution of Trainium3 from June along with healthy China ADAS SoC demand. With mix skewed to lower margins production, headcount expansion, annual salary hike and more EDA usage, 2Q26 GM/OpM was 35%/22% (vs. 50%/33% in 1Q26), taking 2Q26 EPS to NT$20.02. While its production business could reach 80-90% of its sales in 2H26, GM/OpM is guided to stay 20-25%/15% (Trainium1 at 10-15%/10%) on its growing value add in back-end design and supply chain support even with COT model.
Trn3/4 locked in; other CSP CPU/ASIC projects in progress
We expect Trainium3 to generate US$1.3bn sales to Alchip in ' 26 (60% of its total sales) and could ramp further in ' 27 to US$2.2bn (68% of its sales) before Trainium4 on 2nm tapes out in 4Q26 and enters production from 4Q27 for the dollar content uplift on higher chiplet design complexity and larger reticle size for the package integrating more compute and I/O tiles, along with meaningful volume opportunity as Amazon targets to adopt the chipset more aggressively in house and sell Trainium-based hardware noted in our preview. On top of the US$4bn revenue in ' 28 and US$17bn addressable potential (ex-HBM) through the lifecycle for Trainium4, Alchip is engaged with other hyperscalers potentially on N5 ARM CPUs and certain part of the ASIC projects for contribution in ' 28.
Firmer '26-28 earnings visibility at compelling valuation
On ramping Trainium3 revenue and better Trainium4 project visibility supplemented by better than feared margins profile for the project from 2H26-2027, we lift ' 26/ ' 27 EPS from NT$132.78/NT$201.25 to NT$132.94/NT$204.17. We keep Buy rating and raise PO to NT$6,100 (vs. NT$6,000 prior) still on 30x/19x ' 27/28e P/E (vs. its 6-53x range). Our analysis shows every 100k incremental Trn3/4 chipset units could add its EPS by NT$5/NT$15 in ' 27/ ' 28, putting the share 20x/13x ' 27/28e P/E attractive on the cloud ASIC TAM upside.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 6,446 | 5,598 | 10,881 | 16,712 | 26,087 |
| EPS | 81.34 | 69.18 | 132.94 | 204.17 | 318.72 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 78.9% | -14.9% | 92.2% | 53.6% | 56.1% |
| Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) | 128.47 | 177.24 | 247.24 | ||
| Dividend / Share | 40.05 | 35.98 | 69.13 | 106.17 | 165.74 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 17.16 | 160.46 | 136.69 | 225.21 | 197.31 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 51.76x | 60.85x | 31.67x | 20.62x | 13.21x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.951% | 0.855% | 1.64% | 2.52% | 3.94% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 35.47x | 40.14x | 22.46x | 15.07x | 9.87x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 0.375% | 3.58% | 3.08% | 5.08% | 4.45% |
| * For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 8. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11. Analyst Certification on page 6. Price
14 August 2026
Equity
| Key Changes (NT$) | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Price Obj. | 6,000.00 | 6,100.00 |
| 2026E EPS | 132.78 | 132.94 |
| 2027E EPS | 201.25 | 204.17 |
| 2028E EPS | 313.80 | 318.72 |
| 2026E EBITDA (m) | 14,738.2 | 14,432.4 |
| 2027E EBITDA (m) | 21,596.4 | 21,515.0 |
| 2028E EBITDA (m) | 32,663.5 | 32,851.0 |
Haas Liu >>
Research Analyst
Merrill Lynch (Taiwan)
+886 2 2376 3727
haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan)
mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >>
Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan)
cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
Stock Data
| Price | 4,210 TWD |
|---|---|
| Price Objective | 6,100 TWD |
| Date Established | 14-Aug-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 2,480 TWD-5,640TWD |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 11,284 USD / 86.2 |
| Market Value (mn) | 362,922 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 303.49 USD |
| Free Float | 90.8% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | ALCPF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 3661 TT / 3661.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 20.2% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -95.2% |
iQ profile SM Alchip
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 51,969 | 30,926 | 64,289 | 100,858 | 176,041 |
| Gross Profit | 10,201 | 8,154 | 16,055 | 23,582 | 37,763 |
| Sell General &Admin Expense | (1,563) | (1,306) | (1,291) | (1,409) | (2,238) |
| Operating Profit | 6,496 | 5,017 | 11,664 | 18,746 | 30,082 |
| Net Interest &Other Income | 1,312 | 1,703 | 1,568 | 1,487 | 1,487 |
| Associates | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Pretax Income | 7,808 | 6,720 | 13,232 | 20,234 | 31,570 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (1,362) | (1,124) | (2,364) | (3,526) | (5,486) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 6,446 | 5,598 | 10,881 | 16,712 | 26,087 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 79 | 81 | 82 | 82 | 82 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 6,446 | 5,598 | 10,881 | 16,712 | 26,087 |
| Depreciation &Amortization | 2,644 | 3,061 | 2,769 | 2,769 | 2,769 |
| Change in Working Capital | (438) | 4,594 | 113 | 4,000 | (3,900) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | (5,293) | 2,018 | 808 | (4) | (4) |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 3,358 | 15,272 | 14,571 | 23,476 | 24,952 |
| Capital Expenditure | (1,998) | (2,287) | (3,383) | (5,043) | (8,802) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | 573 | (4,474) | (4,688) | 0 | 0 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | 748 | 934 | 2,604 | (800) | (800) |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (676) | (5,828) | (5,466) | (5,843) | (9,602) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 14,330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (1,818) | (2,946) | (2,911) | (5,658) | 0 |
| Cash Flow from Financing | 12,855 | (2,653) | (2,813) | (5,658) | 0 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,360 | 12,985 | 11,188 | 18,433 | 16,150 |
| Net Debt | (29,428) | (38,882) | (49,817) | (61,792) | (77,142) |
| Change in Net Debt | (16,885) | (5,583) | (6,863) | (11,975) | (15,350) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant &Equipment | 1,775 | 1,680 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 2,350 | 3,302 | 31,700 | 31,700 | 31,700 |
| Trade Receivables | 5,730 | 3,011 | 8,118 | 4,254 | 9,730 |
| Cash &Equivalents | 29,428 | 38,882 | 49,817 | 61,792 | 77,142 |
| Other Current Assets | 11,026 | 11,165 | 11,969 | 8,110 | 16,978 |
| Total Assets | 50,309 | 58,039 | 101,604 | 105,855 | 135,550 |
| Long-Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 161 | 240 | 11,108 | 11,108 | 11,108 |
| Short-Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 10,672 | 16,975 | 23,542 | 16,338 | 24,120 |
| Total Liabilities | 10,833 | 17,214 | 34,650 | 27,446 | 35,228 |
| Total Equity | 39,477 | 40,824 | 66,954 | 78,409 | 100,322 |
| Total Equity &Liabilities | 50,309 | 58,039 | 101,604 | 105,855 | 135,550 |
| iQ method SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 22.0% | 13.6% | 18.1% | 19.9% | 25.9% |
| Return On Equity | 22.4% | 14.0% | 20.2% | 23.0% | 29.2% |
| Operating Margin | 12.5% | 16.2% | 18.1% | 18.6% | 17.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 17.6% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 21.3% | 18.7% |
| iQ method SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 0.5x | 2.7x | 1.3x | 1.4x | 1.0x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 0.9x | 0.8x | 1.5x | 2.3x | 3.9x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 17.4% | 16.7% | 17.9% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -74.5% | -95.2% | -74.4% | -78.8% | -76.9% |
| Interest Cover | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 8.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
Alchip is a pure IC design service company headquartered in Taiwan and has strong presence in Greater China. Its focus is on advanced AI/HPC chip-design, largely built on leading edge process by the foundry. Beyond Greater China and computing chips, it also has customers in US/Europe/Japan, etc, and from networking/gaming areas.
Investment Rationale
We have a Buy rating on Alchip, as we still like its industry position for leading edge chip-design, as well as its visibility of sustained growth into 2027 along with continuous ramps from key projects on mass production side.
Stock Data
Price to Book Value
5.4x
Focus charts and tables
Exhibit 1: Alchip 2Q26-3Q26 and 2026-27 estimates BofAe vs. street
Our EPS estimates for '26/27 is now NT$132.94/204.17
| 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | BofAe | Old | Street | |
| Sales (NT$mn) | $7,640 82.5% | $7,610 81.8% | $9,271 121.4% | $23,913 213.0% | $23,965 214.9% | $26,387 184.6% | $64,289 107.9% | $64,165 107.5% | $74,288 140.2% | $100,858 56.9% | $100,359 56.4% | $115,557 55.6% |
| Sales QoQ / YoY (%) Gross profit (NT$mn) | $2,662 | $2,275 29.9% | $2,880 31.1% | $5,306 22.2% | $5,338 22.3% | $5,208 19.7% | $16,055 25.0% | $15,696 24.5% | $16,742 22.5% | $23,582 23.4% | $23,320 23.2% | $22,567 19.5% |
| GMs (%) | 34.8% $1,647 | $1,315 | $2,014 | $3,920 16.4% | $4,019 | $3,953 | $11,492 | 16.8% | 18.6% | 18.3% | 14.9% | |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) OpMs (%) | 21.6% | 21.7% | 16.8% | 15.0% | $11,664 18.1% | 17.9% | $12,466 | $18,746 | $18,350 | $17,251 | ||
| Pretax profit (NT$mn) | $2,035 | 17.3% $1,752 23.0% | $2,285 | $4,327 18.1% | $4,375 | $4,276 | $13,232 | $13,058 | $13,660 | $20,234 | 19.8% | $18,144 15.7% |
| Tax expense | -$396 | 24.7% | 18.3% | 16.2% | 20.6% | 20.3% | 18.4% | 20.1% | $19,837 | |||
| Pretax margins (%) | 26.6% | -$297 | -$424 18.5% | -$735 17.0% | -$743 17.0% | -$805 18.8% | -$2,351 | -$2,252 | -$2,377 17.4% | -$3,522 17.4% | 17.4% | -$3,236 17.8% |
| (NT$mn) | -$3,459 | |||||||||||
| Tax rate (%) | 19.5% | 16.9% | $3,593 | $3,471 | 17.8% $10,881 | 17.2% $10,806 | $11,284 | $16,712 | ||||
| Net profit (NT$mn) | $1,638 | $1,455 | $1,862 | $3,632 | $16,378 | $14,908 | ||||||
| Net margins (%) | 21.4% | 19.1% | 20.1% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 15.2% | 16.6% | 16.3% | 12.9% |
| EPS (NT$) | $20.01 | $17.88 | $22.71 | $43.89 | $44.64 | $42.70 | $132.94 | $132.78 | $137.02 | $204.17 | $201.25 | $180.65 |
Source:
BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: Alchip's revenue analysis from 2024-28
AWS Trainium projects will again be the major growth driver for Alchip in 2026-28
| Alchip revenue analysis | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWS - Trainium1 | $1,167 $0 | $421 $0 $0 | $0 $0 | $0 $0 | $0 |
| AWS - Trainium2 | $39 | $1,246 $0 | $0 | $0 $612 | |
| AWS - Trainium3 | $1,246 | $2,158 | |||
| AWS - Trainium4 | $0 $0 | $0 | $3,724 | ||
| AWS cloud projects cloud AI projects | $1,167 $15 | $421 | $51 | $2,158 $66 | $4,336 $105 |
| Other Li Auto | $0 | $80 | $135 | $236 | $307 |
| Networking | $36 | $29 | $37 | $43 | $64 |
| Consumer | $23 | $119 | $125 | $140 | $162 |
| Niche | $49 | $15 | $17 | $20 | $23 |
| Total turnkey revenue (US$mn) Total turnkey revenue (NT$mn) | $1,290 $41,391 | $703 $21,933 | $1,614 $51,212 | $2,670 $84,896 | $5,000 $159,006 |
| NRE project content (US$mn) | $13.2 | $16.0 | $27.5 | $38.6 | $53.6 |
| Total NRE revenue (US$mn) Total NRE revenue (NT$mn) | $330 $10,578 | $288 $8,993 | $412 $13,077 | $502 $15,963 | $536 $17,035 |
| Alchip total revenue (US$mn) | $1,619 | $991 | $3,172 | $5,536 | |
| Alchip total revenue (NT$mn) | $51,969 | $30,926 | $2,027 $64,289 | $100,858 | $176,041 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates
Exhibit 3: Alchip's 2027 EPS sensitivity analysis
Every 100k additional Trn3 units could add NT$5 EPS
| Trainium3 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium3 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium3 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium3 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium3 chipset pricing (US$) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $950 | $1,000 | $1,055 | $1,150 | $1,250 | |
| 1.00 | $127.80 | $130.95 | $134.41 | $140.38 | $146.67 |
| 1.50 | $157.67 | $162.39 | $167.57 | $176.53 | $185.97 |
| 2.05 | $190.63 | $197.08 | $204.17 | $216.43 | $229.33 |
| 2.50 | $217.41 | $225.27 | $233.91 | $248.84 | $264.56 |
| 3.00 | $247.27 | $256.70 | $267.08 | $285.00 | $303.86 |
| 3.50 | $277.14 | $288.14 | $300.25 | $321.16 | $343.16 |
Source:
BofA Global Research estimates
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 4: Alchip's 2028 EPS sensitivity analysis
Every 100k additional Trn4 units could add NT$15 EPS
| Trainium4 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium4 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium4 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium4 chipset pricing (US$) | Trainium4 chipset pricing (US$) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,800 | $2,900 | $3,006 | $3,100 | $3,200 | |
| 1.00 | $228.96 | $235.21 | $241.85 | $247.73 | $253.98 |
| 1.20 | $263.99 | $271.49 | $279.45 | $286.51 | $294.01 |
| 1.44 | $306.64 | $315.67 | $325.25 | $333.73 | $342.76 |
| 1.80 | $369.08 | $380.33 | $392.27 | $402.85 | $414.11 |
| 2.30 | $456.65 | $471.03 | $486.29 | $499.81 | $514.20 |
| 2.80 | $544.22 | $561.73 | $580.30 | $596.76 | $614.28 |
Source:
BofA Global Research estimates
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 5: Alchip's share price sensitivity analysis
Alchip's share at current level is valued at conservative 1.5mn Trn3 unit assumption in '27 and 20x P/E (vs. its 6-53x range)
| Alchip 2027 EPS (NT$) | Alchip 2027 EPS (NT$) | Alchip 2027 EPS (NT$) | Alchip 2027 EPS (NT$) | Alchip 2027 EPS (NT$) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 | $170 | $204 | $235 | $265 | |
| 20x | $2,900 | $3,400 | $4,083 | $4,700 | $5,300 |
| 25x | $3,625 | $4,250 | $5,104 | $5,875 | $6,625 |
| 30x | $4,332 | $5,079 | $6,100 | $7,021 | $7,917 |
| 32x | $4,640 | $5,440 | $6,534 | $7,520 | $8,480 |
| 35x | $5,075 | $5,950 | $7,146 | $8,225 | $9,275 |
| 38x | $5,510 | $6,460 | $7,759 | $8,930 | $10,070 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates
Exhibit 6: Alchip's P/E valuation band
Alchip's historical P/E range is 6-53x
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 9: Terms and definitions
Glossary of abbreviations/acronyms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| AI | Artificial Intelligence |
| ADAS | Advanced Driver Assistance Systems |
| ASIC | Application Specific Integrated Circuit |
| COT | Customer Owned Tooling |
| EV | Electric Vehicle |
| GW | Gigawatt |
| HBM | High Bandwidth Memory |
| NRE | Non-Recurring Engineering |
| SoC | System-on-Chip |
| TPU | Tensor Processing Unit |
| Trn3 | Trainium 3 |
| Trn4 | Trainium 4 |
Source: BofA Global Research
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 7: Alchip's valuation based on BofA estimates
Alchip's current share at 19x 2027 P/E
Source: BofA Global Research estimates
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
Alchip (ALCPF)
Our NT$6,100 PO is based on 30x 2027E P/E, at midcycle of the company's historical trading range of 6-53x. In our view, this is backed by 1) operating/net margin of 18%/17% in 2026-27E, 2) EPS CAGR of 55% during 2026-28E, and 3) ROE of 25-30% in 2026-28E.
Upside risks:
- 1) earlier and faster ramp of other non-AWS projects to enter into production stage
- 2) looser restriction from the US on China, where Alchip generates better margin with strong demand
Downside risks:
- 1) intensified competition pressure from existing and emerging peers,
- 2) failure or delay to execute node migration and corresponding product roll-out for customers,
- 3) a slowdown in foundry node migration, which allows a longer time window for peers to catch up in advanced chip-design, or makes AI more easily to replace the chip-design service provided by the employees/engineers,
- 4) lack of or insufficient supply support (foundry, back-end, etc), especially when demand is strong from other customers for these supply chain partners.