報告_JPM_華邦電2344_20260715

PDF 原檔：報告_JPM_華邦電2344_20260715_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-15）

原始內容

Quant

Factors

Value

Growth

Momentum

Quality

Low Vol

Current

%Rank

3

1

3

97

Hist %Rank (1=Top)

96

98

19

22

29

9

96

91

98

83

96

71

47

62

80

Winbond

DDR4 & DDR3 pricing stronger than expected; AI server NOR shipments on the ramp; 2027E NT$60 EPS power; OW

We recommend accumulating Winbond stock, supported by two key catalysts: stronger-than-expected pricing power in niche DRAM and a ramp-up in NOR shipments to AI servers. We raise our 27E EPS to NT$60 and set a Dec-26 PT of NT$360 (6x 27E P/E), implying >100% upside. The stock is trading at 2.7x 2027E P/E and 1.6x 2027E P/B - we view this as an attractive entry point. We believe the Street underestimates a structural demand driver - eSSD DRAM cache requirements for DDR4, which could sustain DDR4 tightness and support pricing over the next two years. In addition, AI servers could contribute 50% of Winbond's NOR flash shipments in 2027. Overall, we estimate AI-related (eSSD DRAM and NOR) could make up one-third of Winbond's memory revenue in 2027. We also expect Winbond's upcoming 2Q26 earnings meeting to be a positive event, as the management could provide constructive tones on growth strategies.

• Conventional DRAM demand and pricing are surprising to the upside. We now project Winbond's DDR3 (4Gb) and DDR4 (4Gb & 8Gb) contract prices to rise ~50% QoQ in 3Q26 (vs. our prior assumption of +20-30% QoQ). The global DRAM supply shortage remains a key tailwind, as the three major vendors are likely to keep the DDR4 bit-shipment mix at very low levels. While the supply-driven upside is broadly understood by the market, our investor interactions over the past month suggest an important demand driver is not well appreciated. As noted in our prior note, 1TB eSSD typically requires ~1GB of DRAM cache, for which spec is mostly DDR4 8Gb. Our global memory team estimates the eSSD market at >515EB in 2026, 840EB in 2027, and >1,190EB in 2028. We therefore believe eSSDs alone imply a potential DRAM demand TAM of >500mnGB, >800mnGB, and >1,100mnGB in those respective years - consuming up to 50% of niche DRAM makers' output. This robust demand could drive tightness/shortages in niche DRAM and a stronger-than-expected pricing momentum. For example, we forecast 2027 total DRAM bit shipments for Nanya Tech (covered by Jay Kwon) and Winbond at ~800mnGB and ~420mnGB, respectively. In addition to DDR4, LPDDR also consume their capacity in a meaningful way. Notably, we believe consumer applications also took these very high DDR3 and DDR4 prices in 3Q26. On the supply side, Winbond is on track to ramp up its Kaohsiung Fab and maintains its target to wafer-in 25kwpm in late 2026 or early 2027 (with the mix of 16nm 2/3 and 20nm 1/3), vs a meaningful step-up vs ~15kwpm wafer-out in 3Q26.
• Ramping up NOR flash shipments to AI. We expect Winbond to upgrade its NOR flash shipment mix by capturing demand from the AI server market. We estimate NOR flash demand units could increase ~2x from Blackwell to Rubin. NOR flash ASP could be 20-30% higher for AI than non-AI applications. We model NOR to account for 17% and 14% of Winbond's revenue mix in 2026 and 27. Winbond could lift its AI server mix within NOR from a minimal level in 1H26 to 30%+ in 2H26 and 50%+ sometime in 2027, as it expands capacity while a leading global peer reduces capacity. Separately, we expect consumer NOR flash contract prices (like-for-like) to rise 20%+ QoQ in 3Q26.

Sources for: Style Exposure - J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

Overweight

2344.TW, 2344 TT

Price (14 Jul 26):NT$164.50

▲Price Target (Dec-26):NT$360.00

Prior (Dec-26):NT$255.00

Technology

Jimmy Huang AC

(886-2) 2725-9865 jimmy.huang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Gokul Hariharan

(852) 2800-8564

gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Style Exposure

Flice Ferrormance

Ferrormance Drivers

300

Market

Region

J.P. Morgan

200

NT$

Idiosyn.

0

Oct 25

Factors

Market: MSCI Asia Pac ex JP

Macro:

Quant Styles:

Quality

Momentum

Size

27%

Jan 26

Apr 26

6M Corr

0.55

— MSCI-Tw (rebased)

58%

1Y Corr

0.51

Jul 26

-0.07

YTD

99.2%

39.6%

Abs

Rel

-0.21

1m

-4.4%

-5.9%

3m

75.9%

51.6%

12m

801.4%

692.3%

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

1 1%

Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We recommend accumulating Winbond stock, supported by two key catalysts: stronger-than-expected pricing power in niche DRAM and a ramp-up in NOR shipments to AI servers. We raise our 27E EPS estimate to NT$60 and set a Dec-26 price target of NT$360 (6x 27E P/E), implying >100% upside potential. The stock is trading at 2.7x 2027E P/E and 1.6x 2027E P/B - we view this as an attractive entry point. We believe the Street underestimates a structural demand driver - eSSD DRAM cache requirements for DDR4, which could sustain DDR4 tightness and support pricing over the next two years. In addition, AI servers could contribute 50% of Winbond's NOR flash shipments in 2027. Overall, we estimate AI-related (eSSD DRAM and NOR) could make up one-third of Winbond's memory revenue in 2027. We also expect Winbond's upcoming 2Q26 earnings meeting to be a positive event, as the management could provide constructive tones on growth strategies.

Valuation

Our Dec-26 PT of NT$360 is based on 6.0x 2027E P/E and implies 3.5x 2027E P/B, reflecting the memory super-cycle, an AI crowd-out effect, and Winbond's product spec upgrades.

Performance Drivers

• Implications - raise PT to NT$360. We raise our 2026E and 2027E EPS by 12% and 39% to NT$28.5 and NT$60.0, respectively, 35% and 76% above Bloomberg consensus. We raise our Dec-26 PT to NT$360, based on 6.0x 2027E P/E and implying 3.5x 2027E P/B. Our prior Dec-26 PT of NT$255 was based on 3.0x 2027E P/B and implied 5.9x 2027E P/E. We change the valuation method to reflect Winbond's sustained earnings power. Winbond's stock price rose 13% in the past month and outperformed the Taiex by 11%; we think recent trading momentum was negatively impacted by global memory peers.

Earnings estimates

Table 1: J.P. Morgan estimates - revised vs. prior

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 1: J.P. Morgan estimates vs. Bloomberg 28-day consensus

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Valuation

Our Dec-26 PT of NT$360 is based on 6.0x 2027E P/E and implies 3.5x 2027E P/B, reflecting the memory super-cycle, an AI crowd-out effect, and Winbond's product spec upgrades.

Figure 2: Winbond one-year-forward P/B vs. ROE

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Table 2: Taiwan memory sector valuations

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Prices are as of 14 Jul 2026 market close. *JPMe for Winbond, BBGe for other companies. We refer to the year-end ROEs for Winbond.

Figure 3: Winbond one-year-forward P/B with SD

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Income statement

Table 3: Winbond's quarterly income statement

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Winbond (Overweight; Price Target: NT$360.00)

Investment Thesis

We recommend accumulating Winbond stock, supported by two key catalysts: strongerthan-expected pricing power in niche DRAM and a ramp-up in NOR shipments to AI servers. We raise our 27E EPS estimate to NT$60 and set a Dec-26 price target of NT$360 (6x 27E P/E), implying >100% upside potential. The stock is trading at 2.7x 2027E P/E and 1.6x 2027E P/B - we view this as an attractive entry point. We believe the Street underestimates a structural demand driver - eSSD DRAM cache requirements for DDR4, which could sustain DDR4 tightness and support pricing over the next two years. In addition, AI servers could contribute 50% of Winbond's NOR flash shipments in 2027. Overall, we estimate AI-related (eSSD DRAM and NOR) could make up one-third of Winbond's memory revenue in 2027. We also expect Winbond's upcoming 2Q26 earnings meeting to be a positive event, as the management could provide constructive tones on growth strategies.

Valuation

Our Dec-26 PT of NT$360 is based on 6.0x 2027E P/E and implies 3.5x 2027E P/B, reflecting the memory super-cycle, an AI crowd-out effect, and Winbond's product spec upgrades.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key downside risks include: (1) worse-than-expected consumer legacy DRAM contract pricing and demand trends during 4Q25-2Q26; (2) worse-than-expected pricing and demand trends for SLC NAND and NOR flash; and (3) slower-than-expected CUBE business ramp-up progress.

Winbond: Summary of Financials

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Note: NT$ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which

request.

Winbond (2344. TW, 2344 TT) Price Chart

J.P. Morgan

300

200

Price(NT$) 150

100

Da

04

10.

02

06

29

23

11-

06

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an 'AC' on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an 'AC' on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Research Analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that the Research Analyst's analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst's own opinion, without undue influence or intervention.

All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.