PDF 原檔:報告_JPM_中砂1560_20260811_original.pdf
圖片清單(已驗證 2026-08-13)
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260811_jp_kinik_001.png |
40KB | 真資料圖 | Price Performance 折線圖:中砂股價 vs 對比指標,2025-10 至 2026-07,NT$250-1000 區間,藍線於 2026 年中大幅拉開 |
260811_jp_kinik_002.png |
46KB | 真資料圖 | 一年期遠期 P/E 估值帶圖(2018-01 至 2026):股價線疊加 4x/12x/20x/28x/36x 倍數帶,2025 年下半年起股價突破上緣 |
260811_jp_kinik_003.png |
45KB | 真資料圖 | 一年期遠期 P/B 估值帶圖 + ROE 折線(右軸),2018-01 至 2026:股價線疊加 0.5x/2x/3.5x/5x P/B 倍數帶,ROE 2026 年顯著上升 |
260811_jp_kinik_006.png |
93KB | 真資料圖 | Kinik 股價走勢圖 + 評等調升歷史表:2024-05-31 OW TP400 → 2026-02-13 OW TP500 → 2026-05-11 OW TP680 → 2026-07-21 OW TP800,股價圖標註各次目標價調升點 |
分類只有三類:
真資料圖/裝飾·logo·banner/文字卡。<40KB 未 Read 者免列(預設 logo,含260811_jp_kinik_004.png35KB、260811_jp_kinik_005.png34KB)。
原始內容
Quant
Factors
Value
Growth
Momentum
Quality
Low Vol
Current
%Rank
98
62
37
45
64
J P M O R G A N 95 Hist %Rank (1=Top) 95 14 50 47 51 82
23
39
87
58
45
36
81
Kinik 69 83
70
18
Margin tailwind to further strengthen into 2H26; more aggressive diamond disk capacity expansion; OW
Kinik reported its 2Q26 earnings and held an investor meeting. The stronger-thanexpected 2Q GM growth (reaching 40% from 35% in 1Q) was in line with our preview (link), and we believe the margin expansion trend will strengthen into 2H26 and 2027driven by 1) ABU (grinding wheel) demand recovery plus potential price hike, 2) larger scale of DBU (diamond disk), and 3) more favorable SBU (test/reclaim wafer) product mix. In terms of the revenue outlook, we believe the more aggressive diamond disk capacity expansion plan in 2H26-2027 and even in the longer term (more than tripling in the next 8 years) suggests stronger advanced node demand from customers with continued content increase and Kinik's solid share gain. OW.
- 2Q26 results beat on GM. Reported 2Q26 EPS of NT$3.5 was in line with JPMe, but higher than consensus estimate by 8% mainly due to stronger-thanexpected GM expansion. GM of 40% was a strong beat vs. BBGe of 37% and implied a solid growth vs. 1Q26 GM of 35% and 2Q25 GM of 31%, driven by all-business margin uptick with ABU demand recovery, larger sales scale (+9% QoQ; +36% YoY) and more favorable product mix from increasing HBM carrier wafer shipments.
- More aggressive diamond disk capacity expansion plan backed by accelerating advanced node demand with continued content increase. The company guided for its diamond disk capacity to increase meaningfully from ~60k/month currently to 70k/month by end of 2026 and 95k/month by end of 2027. We believe the new guidance suggests an accelerating expansion schedule with more aggressive capacity increase. Longer-term, management even expects to further reach 200k/month by 2034, implying more than triple its diamond disk capacity in the next 8 years. This is driven by 1) structural advanced node and packaging technology migration with continued content increase given more CMP steps required, 2) solid market share increase in both the major Taiwan customer and US memory customer, and 3) rising demand in US IDM customer.
- Margin upgrade to accelerate into 2H26 and 2027, with all businesses' GMs stepping up to the next level. We believe the company's 2H26 and 2027 GM will grow more meaningfully to 41-42% and 44% levels (vs consensus estimate at 38% and 40%), from 33% in 2025, 35% in 1Q26 and 40% in 2Q26E as the surge point. In our view, the GMs of Kinik's three businesses (ABU, DBU and SBU) are all upgrading to a new level given strengthening demand and mix enhancement. For ABU, we believe it will see more meaningful GM expansion (from 20% or below to 25% or above in 2Q26 and beyond), thanks to decent demand recovery along with price hikes expected from 2H26. As for DBU, we see continued rising diamond disk demand with a more aggressive capacity expansion plan, and the enhancing rev/scale could lead to a better cost structure with lower depreciation and average labor costs, driving its DBU GM to reach >55% in 2Q26 and beyond from 50% or below in 2025. Lastly, we think SBU's GM will see the most significant improvement to ~40% levels (from 30% in 2025), thanks to the increasing contribution from high-end carrier wafers.
Sources for: Style Exposure - J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.
See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
Overweight
1560.TW, 1560 TT Price (11 Aug 26):NT$687.00
▲Price Target (Dec-27):NT$850.00
Prior (Dec-27):NT$800.00
Technology
William Yang AC
(886-2) 2725-9899 william.yang@jpmorgan.com
Megan Hsueh (886-2) 2725-9249 megan.hsueh@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited
| Key Changes (FYE Dec) | Key Changes (FYE Dec) | Key Changes (FYE Dec) | Key Changes (FYE Dec) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev | Cur | Δ | |
| Adj. EPS - 27E (NT$) | 21.18 | 21.83 | 3.1% |
| Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) | Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) | Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) | Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. EPS (NT$) | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E |
| Q1 | 1.96 | 2.94A | 4.57 |
| Q2 | 1.82 | 3.49A | 5.21 |
| Q3 | 2.24 | 4.03 | 5.80 |
| Q4 | 3.27 | 4.37 | 6.26 |
| FY | 9.29 | 14.84 | 21.83 |
Style Exposure
Frice Ferrormance
Ferrormance Drivers
1000
Market
Region
Idiosyn.
250
Factors
Market: MSCI Asia Pac ex JP
1 1%
Oct 25
Macro:
Quant Styles:
DivYld
Growth
Momentum
Jan 26
30%
6M Corr
0.64
Apr 26
0.26
50%
1Y Corr
0.55
Jul 26
0.13

YTD
73.3%
17.5%
Abs
Rel
— TSE (rebased)
1m
-3.1%
-2.6%
3m
9.2%
1.3%
12m
122.3%
35.4%
| Company Data | |
|---|---|
| Shares O/S (mn) | 145 |
| 52-week range (NT$) | 788.63-296.48 |
| Market cap ($ mn) | 3,091 |
| Exchange rate | 32.22 |
| Free float (%) | 75.0% |
| 3M ADV (mn) | 1.83 |
| 3M ADV ($ mn) | 38.8 |
| Volatility (90 Day) | 66 |
| Index | TAIEX |
| BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) | 14|0|0 |
Key Metrics (FYE Dec)
| NT$ in millions | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Estimates | ||||
| Revenue | 8,149 | 10,292 | 13,004 | 15,293 |
| Adj. EBITDA | 1,955 | 3,279 | 4,718 | 5,920 |
| Adj. EBIT | 1,303 | 2,505 | 3,842 | 4,948 |
| Adj. net income | 1,360 | 2,217 | 3,270 | 4,230 |
| Adj. EPS | 9.29 | 14.84 | 21.83 | 28.24 |
| BBG EPS | 8.70 | 13.90 | 18.74 | 23.50 |
| Cashflow from operations | 1,704 | 3,394 | 3,766 | 4,926 |
| FCFF | (106) | 1,799 | 2,385 | 3,546 |
| Margins and Growth | ||||
| Revenue Growth Y/Y (%) | 16.1% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 17.6% |
| EBITDA margin | 24.0% | 31.9% | 36.3% | 38.7% |
| EBITDA Growth Y/Y (%) | 12.8% | 67.7% | 43.9% | 25.5% |
| EBIT margin | 16.0% | 24.3% | 29.5% | 32.4% |
| Net margin | 16.7% | 21.5% | 25.1% | 27.7% |
| Adj. EPS growth | 30.5% | 59.8% | 47.1% | 29.3% |
| Ratios | ||||
| Adj. tax rate | 15.8% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Interest cover | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| Net debt/Equity | 0.1 | 0.0 | NM | NM |
| Net debt/EBITDA | 0.4 | 0.0 | NM | NM |
| ROCE | 10.8% | 18.3% | 24.7% | 27.1% |
| ROE | 17.1% | 24.5% | 30.7% | 32.8% |
| Valuation | ||||
| FCFF yield | (0.1%) | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| EV/Revenue | 12.3 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 51.3 | 30.4 | 20.9 | 16.3 |
| Adj. P/E | 74.0 | 46.3 | 31.5 | 24.3 |
J.P. Morgan
750
NT$
Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
Investment Thesis
We are OW on Kinik for its stronger-than-peers' earnings growth potential over the next few years, supported by continued share gains at existing customers, with new customer win potential and an improving product portfolio with blended ASP/GM growth.
Valuation
Our Dec-27 PT of NT$850 is based on a 30x 2028E P/E, higher than its historical average P/E, which we believe is warranted by Kinik's strong earnings potential.
| Performance Drivers | Performance Drivers | Performance Drivers | Performance Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
- Implications. We keep our above-consensus 2026E EPS largely unchanged at NT$15, while we lift our 2027E/28E EPS estimates by 3%/5% to NT$22/NT$28 to factor in the stronger diamond disk capacity expansion with accelerating GM upgrades. Thus, our Dec-27 PT is revised up to NT$850 (from NT$800 previously) based on 30x 2028E P/E, which is higher than the company's historical average P/E, but should be warranted by Kinik's solid ~45% earnings growth potential in 2025-28E.
Table 1: 2Q26 results recap
| 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26 | 1Q26 | 1Q26 | 2Q25 | 2Q25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JPM est. | Diff.% | Consensus | Diff.% | Actual | QoQ% | Actual | YoY% | |
| Revenues | 2,493 | 2,493 | 0% | 2,500 | 0% | 2,293 | 9% | 1,834 | 36% |
| Gross Profit | 998 | 986 | 1% | 932 | 7% | 803 | 24% | 566 | 76% |
| GM | 40.0% | 39.6% | 47 bps | 37.3% | 274 bps | 35.0% | 505 bps | 30.9% | 916 bps |
| Operating Profit | 604 | 589 | 3% | 544 | 11% | 444 | 36% | 294 | 105% |
| OPM | 24.2% | 23.6% | 59 bps | 21.7% | 247 bps | 19.4% | 484 bps | 16.0% | 818 bps |
| Pretax profit | 664 | 649 | 2% | 580 | 15% | 532 | 25% | 307 | 116% |
| Net Income | 523 | 525 | 0% | 483 | 8% | 436 | 20% | 239 | 119% |
| NM | 21.0% | 21.1% | -8 bps | 19.3% | 166 bps | 19.0% | 197 bps | 13.0% | 795 bps |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.5 | 3.5 | -1% | 3.2 | 8% | 2.9 | 19% | 1.6 | 113% |
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Table 2: J.P. Morgan estimates - new vs old
NT$mn, %
| Revised | Revised | Revised | Revised | Prior | Prior | Prior | Prior | Change | Change | Change | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$M) | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales | 2,683 | 10,292 | 13,004 | 15,293 | 2,706 | 10,294 | 12,564 | 14,551 | -1% | 0% | 4% | 5% |
| Gross profit | 1,109 | 4,099 | 5,709 | 6,942 | 1,092 | 4,031 | 5,291 | 6,301 | 2% | 2% | 8% | 10% |
| GM | 41.3% | 39.8% | 43.9% | 45.4% | 40.4% | 39.2% | 42.1% | 43.3% | 98 bps | 67 bps | 179 bps | 209 bps |
| Operating profit | 696 | 2,505 | 3,842 | 4,948 | 681 | 2,448 | 3,553 | 4,452 | 2% | 2% | 8% | 11% |
| OPM | 25.9% | 24.3% | 29.5% | 32.4% | 25.2% | 23.8% | 28.3% | 30.6% | 78 bps | 56 bps | 127 bps | 175 bps |
| Net Income | 603 | 2,217 | 3,270 | 4,230 | 597 | 2,201 | 3,139 | 3,975 | 1% | 1% | 4% | 6% |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.0 | 14.8 | 21.8 | 28.2 | 4.0 | 14.8 | 21.2 | 26.8 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 5% |
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Table 3: J.P. Morgan estimates vs. Bloomberg consensus
NT$mn, %
| JPMe | JPMe | JPMe | JPMe | Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Diff | Diff | Diff | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$M) | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 3Q26E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales | 2,683 | 10,292 | 13,004 | 15,293 | 2,720 | 10,314 | 12,456 | 14,454 | -1% | 0% | 4% | 6% |
| Gross profit | 1,109 | 4,099 | 5,709 | 6,942 | 1,041 | 3,882 | 5,026 | 6,033 | 7% | 6% | 14% | 15% |
| GM | 41.3% | 39.8% | 43.9% | 45.4% | 38.3% | 37.6% | 40.4% | 41.7% | 305 bps | 219 bps | 355 bps | 366 bps |
| Operating profit | 696 | 2,505 | 3,842 | 4,948 | 631 | 2,296 | 3,301 | 4,399 | 10% | 9% | 16% | 12% |
| OPM | 25.9% | 24.3% | 29.5% | 32.4% | 23.2% | 22.3% | 26.5% | 30.4% | 272 bps | 208 bps | 305 bps | 192 bps |
| Net Income | 603 | 2,217 | 3,270 | 4,230 | 563 | 2,069 | 2,895 | 3,537 | 7% | 7% | 13% | 20% |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.0 | 14.8 | 21.8 | 28.2 | 3.8 | 13.9 | 18.7 | 23.5 | 7% | 7% | 17% | 20% |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.
Earnings review and estimates revisions
Valuation
Table 4: Kinik's five-year trading multiple (from January 2019 to date)
| x | 12M trailing P/E | 12M fwd P/E | 12M trailing P/B | 12M fwd P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard deviation | 12.7 | 8 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Max | 63.2 | 42.9 | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| Minimum | 10.7 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Median | 17.9 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Average | 24.3 | 20.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 1: Kinik's one-year forward P/E

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 3: Kinik's one-year forward P/B

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 2: Kinik's one-year forward P/E vs mean

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 4: Kinik's one-year forward P/B vs mean

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.
Table 5: Income statement
| 2024 | 2026E 2025 | 2027E | 2028E | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ in Mn, year-end December) | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | 1Q | 2Q 3QE | 4QE | 1QE | 2QE | 3QE | 4QE | 1QE 2QE | 3QE | 4QE | 2025 | 2026E | 2024 | 2027E | 2028E | |||||||
| Revenue | 1,595 | 1,731 | 1,859 | 1,834 | 1,772 | 2,115 | 2,091 | 2,172 | 2,293 | 2,493 2,683 | 2,823 | 2,885 | 3,169 | 3,379 | 3,572 | 3,536 | 3,764 3,923 | 4,071 | 7,019 | 8,149 | 10,292 | 13,004 | 15,293 | |||||||
| D&A | 141 | 143 | 147 | 146 | 143 | 154 | 161 | 194 | 181 | 192 195 | 207 | 212 | 215 | 220 229 | 237 | 239 | 244 | 253 | 578 | 774 | 876 | 972 | 652 | |||||||
| COGS | 1,079 | 1,184 | 1,300 | 1,268 | 1,224 | 1,435 | 1,414 | 1,429 | 1,491 1,494 | 1,574 | 1,634 | 1,646 | 1,793 | 1,884 1,972 | 1,942 | 2,067 | 2,136 | 4,831 | 2,205 5,502 | 6,194 | 7,295 | 8,351 | ||||||||
| Gross profit | 516 | 547 | 559 | 566 | 548 | 680 | 677 | 742 | 803 | 998 1,109 | 1,189 | 1,239 | 1,376 | 1,494 | 1,600 1,594 | 1,696 | 1,786 | 1,866 | 2,188 | 2,647 | 4,099 5,709 | 6,942 | ||||||||
| Operating expense | 255 | 252 | 253 | 272 | 266 | 328 | 344 | 406 | 358 | 395 413 | 428 | 433 | 461 | 478 | 495 | 484 | 491 | 504 | 515 | 1,033 | 1,344 | 1,594 | 1,867 | 1,995 | ||||||
| Operating income | 261 | 294 | 305 | 294 | 281 | 352 | 333 | 337 | 444 | 604 696 | 761 | 806 | 915 | 1,016 1,105 | 1,110 | 1,205 | 1,282 | 1,351 | 1,155 | 1,303 | 2,505 3,842 | 4,948 | ||||||||
| Net Interest Income | -2 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | -3 | 3 11 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 21 15 | 21 | 29 | 37 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 18 61 | 116 | ||||||||
| Net Other Income | 62 | 30 | 13 | 11 | 31 | -16 | 86 | 252 | 91 | 57 27 | 28 | 29 | 32 | 34 36 | 35 | 38 | 39 | 41 | 115 | 352 | 203 | 130 | 153 | |||||||
| Non-op gain (loss) | 60 | 39 | 21 | 13 | 34 | -16 | 84 | 254 | 88 | 61 38 | 34 | 38 | 47 | 54 | 51 56 | 67 | 76 | 70 | 134 | 356 | 220 | 191 | 269 | |||||||
| Pre-tax profit | 321 | 333 | 327 | 307 | 315 | 336 | 417 | 590 | 532 | 664 733 | 796 | 845 | 962 | 1,071 | 1,156 | 1,166 | 1,271 | 1,359 | 1,421 | 1,659 | 1,289 2,725 4,033 | 5,217 | ||||||||
| Tax expense (credit) | 52 | 74 | 42 | 59 | 27 | 55 | 87 | 93 | 90 | 129 116 | 126 | 144 | 164 | 182 | 197 | 198 | 216 | 231 | 242 | 227 | 460 | 686 | 887 | 262 | ||||||
| Net profit reported | 257 | 254 | 285 | 239 | 286 | 266 | 328 | 480 | 436 | 523 | 603 | 654 | 685 | 780 | 868 | 938 | 945 | 1,102 | 1,031 | 1,152 | 1,035 | 1,360 | 2,217 | 3,270 | 4,230 | |||||
| EPS (NT$) | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.5 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.3 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.7 9.3 | 14.8 | 21.8 | 28.2 | ||||||||
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Margin | 32.4 | 31.6 | 30.1 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 32.1 | 32.4 | 34.2 | 35.0 40.0 | 41.3 | 42.1 | 42.9 | 43.4 | 44.2 | 44.8 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 45.5 | 45.8 32.5 | 31.2 39.8 | 45.4 | 43.9 | ||||||||
| - Opex ratio | 16.0 | 14.6 | 13.6 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 18.7 | 15.6 15.8 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 14.6 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 12.7 16.5 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 14.4 | |||||||
| Operating Margin | 16.4 | 17.0 | 16.4 | 16.0 | 15.9 | 16.7 | 15.9 | 15.5 | 19.4 | 24.2 25.9 | 27.0 | 27.9 | 28.9 | 30.1 30.9 | 31.4 | 32.0 | 32.7 | 33.2 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 24.3 | 29.5 | 32.4 | |||||||
| EBITDA Margin | 25.2 | 25.3 | 24.3 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 23.9 | 23.6 | 24.4 | 27.3 | 31.9 33.2 | 34.3 | 35.3 | 35.7 | 36.6 | 37.4 | 38.1 | 38.4 | 38.9 | 39.4 | 24.0 | 24.7 31.9 | 36.3 | 38.7 | |||||||
| Net Margin | 16.1 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 16.1 | 12.6 | 15.7 | 22.1 | 19.0 21.0 | 22.5 | 23.2 | 23.7 | 24.6 | 25.7 26.2 | 26.7 | 27.4 | 28.1 | 28.3 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 21.5 25.1 | 27.7 | ||||||||
| Sequential Growth (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0.0 | 8.5 | 7.4 | -1.4 | -3.4 | 19.4 | -1.1 | 3.9 | 5.6 8.7 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | -1.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | |||||||||||
| Gross Profit | 1.2 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -3.3 | 24.1 | -0.4 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 24.4 11.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 7.1 -0.4 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||
| EBIT | -4.4 | 12.6 | 3.8 | -3.7 | -4.3 | 25.1 | -5.4 | 1.0 | 32.1 | 35.8 15.3 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 13.5 | 11.1 8.8 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 5.3 | ||||||||||||
| EPS | 59.7 | -1.3 | 12.2 | -16.3 | 19.2 | -6.9 | 22.9 | 46.2 | -10.0 18.7 | 15.2 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 8.0 0.8 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | ||||||||||||
| YoY Growth (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2.1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 15.0 | 11.1 | 22.2 | 12.5 | 18.4 | 29.4 | 17.9 28.3 | 30.0 | 25.8 | 27.1 | 25.9 | 26.5 22.6 | 18.8 | 16.1 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 16.1 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 17.6 | |||||||
| Gross Profit | 17.9 | 17.3 | 5.8 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 24.3 | 21.2 | 31.1 | 46.6 | 46.9 63.7 | 60.2 | 54.4 | 37.8 | 34.7 | 34.6 28.7 | 23.3 | 19.6 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 21.0 | 54.8 | 39.3 | 21.6 | |||||||
| EBIT | 24.1 | 30.6 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 19.7 | 9.1 | 14.4 | 57.9 | 71.4 108.8 | 126.2 | 81.4 | 51.5 | 46.1 | 45.2 | 37.7 | 31.7 | 26.2 | 22.2 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 92.2 53.4 | 28.8 | |||||||
| EPS | 42.5 | 13.8 | -3.1 | 48.1 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 14.1 | 99.3 | 50.5 | 91.9 80.0 | 33.5 | 55.3 | 49.0 | 43.9 | 43.3 | 38.0 | 32.2 | 26.9 | 22.9 | 30.5 | 20.4 59.8 47.1 | 29.3 | ||||||||
| Sales mix (%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ABU (Abrasive) | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 20% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 19% 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 14% 13% | 14% 14% | 13% | 12% | 17% | 18% 15% | 13% | |||||||||
| DBU (Diamond) | 32% | 31% | 32% | 34% | 32% | 29% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% 34% | 35% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 32% | 33% | 41% | 31% | 47% | ||||||
| SBU (Semiconductor) | 47% | 51% | 52% | 50% | 51% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 44% 43% | 42% | 40% | 39% 37% | 38% | 36% | 36% | 35% 50% 46% | 44% | 39% | 36% | |||||||||
| Others (mainly subsidiaries: KTC & Hongia) | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% 5% | 4% |
Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
Kinik (Overweight; Price Target: NT$850.00)
Investment Thesis
We are OW on Kinik for its stronger-than-peers' earnings growth potential over the next few years, supported by continued share gains at existing customers, with new customer win potential and an improving product portfolio with blended ASP/GM growth.
Valuation
Our Dec-27 PT of NT$850 is based on a 30x 2028E P/E, higher than its historical average P/E, which we believe is warranted by Kinik's strong earnings potential.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Key downside risks include: weaker-than-expected foundry demand, slow leading-edge uptake, market share losses, new DD competitors, and lighter ABU/SBU demand.
Kinik: Summary of Financials
| Income Statement | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | Cash Flow Statement | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,019 | 8,149 | 10,292 | 13,004 | 15,293 | Cash flow from operating activities | 1,520 | 1,704 | 3,394 | 3,766 | 4,926 |
| COGS | (4,831) | (5,502) | (6,194) | (7,295) | (8,351) | o/w Depreciation & amortization | 578 | 652 | 774 | 876 | 972 |
| Gross profit | 2,188 | 2,647 | 4,099 | 5,709 | 6,942 | o/w Changes in working capital | (85) | (298) | 416 | (366) | (260) |
| SG&A | (869) | (1,153) | (1,369) | (1,599) | (1,695) | ||||||
| Adj. EBITDA | 1,733 | 1,955 | 3,279 | 4,718 | 5,920 | Cash flow from investing activities | (563) | (2,604) | (1,724) | (1,375) | (1,377) |
| D&A | (578) | (652) | (774) | (876) | (972) | o/w Capital expenditure | (579) | (1,810) | (1,595) | (1,380) | (1,380) |
| Adj. EBIT | 1,155 | 1,303 | 2,505 | 3,842 | 4,948 | as % of sales | 8.2% | 22.2% | 15.5% | 10.6% | 9.0% |
| Net Interest | 18 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 116 | ||||||
| Adj. PBT | 1,289 | 1,659 | 2,725 | 4,033 | 5,217 | Cash flow from financing activities | 49 | 477 | (1,097) | (1,150) | (1,739) |
| Tax | (227) | (262) | (460) | (686) | (887) | o/w Dividends paid | (580) | (584) | (743) | (1,211) | (1,786) |
| Minority Interest | - | - | - | - | - | o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adj. Net Income | 1,035 | 1,360 | 2,217 | 3,270 | 4,230 | o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) | 93 | 288 | (78) | 0 | 0 |
| Reported EPS | 7.12 | 9.29 | 14.84 | 21.83 | 28.24 | Net change in cash | 1,006 | (422) | 573 | 1,240 | 1,810 |
| Adj. EPS | 7.12 | 9.29 | 14.84 | 21.83 | 28.24 | ||||||
| DPS | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.04 | 8.13 | 11.99 | Adj. Free cash flow to firm y/y Growth | 941 (2.9%) | (106) (111.2%)(1802.0%) | 1,799 | 2,385 32.6% | 3,546 48.7% |
| Payout ratio | 56.2% | 43.1% | 34.0% | 37.2% | 42.5% | ||||||
| Shares outstanding | 145 | 146 | 149 | 150 | 150 | ||||||
| Balance Sheet | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | Ratio Analysis | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 2,001 | 1,578 | 2,152 | 3,392 | 5,202 | Gross margin | 31.2% | 32.5% | 39.8% | 43.9% | 45.4% |
| Accounts receivable | 1,149 | 1,420 | 1,903 | 2,407 | 2,744 | EBITDA margin | 24.7% | 24.0% | 31.9% | 36.3% | 38.7% |
| Inventories | 2,049 | 2,431 | 2,239 | 2,701 | 3,021 | EBIT margin | 16.5% | 16.0% | 24.3% | 29.5% | 32.4% |
| Other current assets | 38 | 52 | 81 | 104 | 118 | Net profit margin | 14.7% | 16.7% | 21.5% | 25.1% | 27.7% |
| Current assets | 5,237 | 5,482 | 6,374 | 8,604 | 11,084 | ||||||
| PP&E | 4,249 | 5,417 | 6,251 | 6,770 | 7,194 | ROE | 14.9% | 17.1% | 24.5% | 30.7% | 32.8% |
| LT investments | 1,125 | 1,376 | 1,422 | 1,422 | 1,422 | ROA | 9.9% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 19.8% | 21.9% |
| Other non current assets | 440 | 984 | 1,066 | 1,061 | 1,058 | ROCE | 10.6% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 24.7% | 27.1% |
| Total assets | 11,051 | 13,258 | 15,112 | 17,856 | 20,758 | SG&A/Sales | 12.4% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 11.1% |
| Short term borrowings | 75 | 412 | 776 | 776 | 776 | Net debt/Equity Net debt/EBITDA | 0.0 0.0 | 0.1 0.4 | 0.0 0.0 | NM NM | NM NM |
| Payables | 417 | 490 | 627 | 756 | 846 | ||||||
| Other short term liabilities | 983 | 1,279 | 1,877 | 2,372 | 2,693 | Sales/Assets (x) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Current liabilities | 1,475 | 2,182 | 3,280 | 3,904 | 4,314 | Assets/Equity (x) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Long-term debt | 1,987 | 1,938 | 1,496 | 1,496 | 1,496 | Interest cover (x) | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| Other long term liabilities | 162 | 649 | 719 | 780 | 827 | Operating leverage | 167.6% | 79.6% | 350.7% | 202.6% | 163.4% |
| Total liabilities | 3,625 | 4,769 | 5,496 | 6,180 | 6,638 | Tax rate | 17.6% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Shareholders' equity | 7,426 | 8,489 | 9,616 | 11,676 | 14,120 | Revenue y/y Growth | 10.0% | 16.1% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 17.6% |
| - | EBITDA y/y Growth | 8.6% | 12.8% | 43.9% | 25.5% | ||||||
| Minority interests | - | - | - | - | 20.4% | 30.5% | 67.7% | ||||
| Total liabilities & equity | 11,051 | 13,258 | 15,112 | 17,856 | 20,758 | EPS y/y Growth | FY24A | FY25A | 59.8% FY26E | 47.1% FY27E | 29.3% |
| BVPS | 50.88 | 57.63 | 64.57 | 78.40 | 94.81 | Valuation | FY28E | ||||
| y/y Growth | 13.9% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 21.4% | 20.9% | P/E (x) | 96.5 | 74.0 11.9 | 46.3 | 31.5 | 24.3 7.2 |
| 61 | 772 | 121 | P/BV (x) | 13.5 57.5 | 51.3 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 1.7% | |||
| Net debt/(cash) | (1,120) | (2,930) | EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield | 0.6% | 0.6% | 30.4 0.7% | 20.9 1.2% | 16.3 |
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: NT$ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which
request.
Kinik (1560.TW, 1560 TT) Price Chart
J.P. Morgan
1200
800
Price(NT$) 600
400
Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an 'AC' on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an 'AC' on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Research Analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the Research Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that the Research Analyst's analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst's own opinion, without undue influence or intervention.
All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.