報告_JPM_PCB與CCL基板_20260922

PDF 原檔：報告_JPM_PCB與CCL基板_20260922_original.pdf

原始內容

PCB, CCL, and Substrate

Takeaways from Prismark expert call

We hosted senior consultant Terry Wang from Prismark to cover a few recent to ics, such as the CPO im act on PCB/CCL and the otential outlook for PTFE ado tion. Key takeaways are:

• CPO impact on high-speed CCL likely manageable. CPO does not mechanically translate into a 'downgrade' of PCB/CCL s ecs because the system still needs high- erformance materials to su ort ower delivery and residual on-board data movement/communication (i.e., requirements ersist beyond the o tical link itself). As a result, M7 (or higher-grade) CCL is still ex ected to be utilized. As CPO ado tion is ex ected to start on scale-out switches first in 2026, and while other domains will take longer to commercialize, near-term dis lacement of high-s eed CCL demand is limited. In addition, as form factors scale (so that switch chi s can host o tical engines), board/substrate size and war age/flatness constraints will likely become key factors for system erformance and give rise to the need for low-CTE (and therefore higher-end) materials, even if CPO ado tion becomes more revalent.
• PTFE adoption not yet finalized, with p ocessability emaining a key gating facto . On the high- rofile PTFE to ic, the conclusion is that PTFE has not yet cleared the ractical hurdles required for stable PCB mass roduction (e.g., lamination/ rocess window and reliability-related issues) and that a 'qualification' outcome does not necessarily lead to scalable manufacturing. For the highest-layer-count use cases (e.g., back lane, whose layer count has exceeded 100), the material choice remains unsettled and a subject of ongoing debate, suggesting that PTFE should be treated as a develo ing athway, rather than a confirmed, imminent reset of the incumbent material roadma . For the glass-less CCL o tion currently being ex lored, the ado tion will give rise to new PCB fabrication rocesses and therefore first-mover advantage for those that can revolutionize their roduction ahead of the industry.
• Upst eam mate ials: S/D emains tight; esin could be the next diffe entiato fo CCL. On glass fiber, ca acity conversion toward higherend roducts (i.e., low-DK and low-CTE fabrics) effectively raises rocessing intensity and could ca near-term effective out ut, kee ing the market tighter than headline ca acity additions would im ly. However, low-end glass fiber roducts' S/D ga could narrow at one oint, as the technology barrier is relatively lower for the overall su ly to ex and. On co er foil, higher-grade HVLP su ly is still viewed as structurally constrained, with new ca acity often limited by yield/quality ram s, rather than name late announcements. Meanwhile, when it comes to the driver of future CCL u grades, discussion oints may shift toward resin-where formulations are ro rietary and the interaction between resin and filler becomes critical-leaving room for continued erformance im rovement ( ossibility of further im rovement beyond BCB/Benzocyclobutene, while hydrocarbon resins may still exist).
• PCB/subst ate competitive dynamics continue to favo incumbents. On overall PCB/substrate com etition going forward, the rising technical demands (war age control, thicker boards, and PCB fabrication rocess revolution) increase the barriers to entry and customer qualification lead times, which structurally favors established layers with roven track records. While

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Technology

Jerry Tsai AC

(886-2) 2725-9867 jerry.tsai@jpmorgan.com J.P. organ Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Josie Yu

(886-2) 2725-9877 josie.yu@jpmorgan.com J.P. organ Securities (Taiwan) Limited

okul Hariharan

(852) 2800-8564 gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com J.P. organ Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. organ Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

some newer entrants may ursue aggressive ca acity ex ansion, AI-grade execution and customer risk tolerance tend to concentrate order allocation with the leaders. As a result, the landsca e is likely to continue consolidating around scaled, quality- roven manufacturers, reinforcing the 'leader gets bigger' outcome.

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