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報告_JPM_Ibiden4062_20260715

更新 2026-07-17
#來源/券商報告#公司/Ibiden

PDF 原檔：報告_JPM_Ibiden4062_20260715_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-17）

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_008.png 72KB 真資料圖 股價與歷次目標價沿革圖：藍線為股價（Y軸 Price(Y)，2023/9-2026 中），標註歷次評等與目標價（OW ¥5,350／OW ¥4,500／OW ¥4,200／N ¥3,250／OW ¥6,450／OW ¥7,000／OW ¥10,200／OW ¥18,400），股價 2025 下半年後急拉升至約 2萬多
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_002.png 55KB 真資料圖 Figure 1：12個月 forward 一致預期 P/E（Ibiden Consensus P/E T+1 Forward，深灰線，左軸 0-60x）與相對族群 P/E（藍線，右軸 0-3.0x）走勢圖，橫軸 2016/08-2026/07，2025 年後兩線皆明顯上揚至近期高點
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_003.png 52KB 真資料圖 Figure 2：12個月 forward 一致預期 P/B（深灰線，左軸 0-10.0x）與相對族群 P/B（藍線，右軸 0-4.0x）走勢圖，橫軸 2016/08-2026/07，同樣近期急升至近8x
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_004.png 52KB 真資料圖 Figure 3：24個月 forward 一致預期 P/E（深灰線，左軸 0-40.0x）與相對族群 P/E（藍線，右軸 0-2.5x）走勢圖，橫軸同上，近期同步上揚
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_005.png 52KB 真資料圖 Figure 4：24個月 forward 一致預期 P/B（深灰線，左軸 0-7.0x）與相對族群 P/B（藍線，右軸 0-3.5x）走勢圖，橫軸同上，近期同步上揚
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_006.png 446KB 文字卡 Excel 財務模型截圖（Figure 5 損益/部門拆分表格畫面截圖，非圖表視覺化，數字已列於原始內容表格中）
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_007.png 481KB 文字卡 Excel 財務模型截圖（Figure 8 損益表細項畫面截圖，非圖表視覺化，數字已列於原始內容表格中）
JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_001.png 37KB 裝飾·banner J.P. Morgan Quant style/performance driver 版面裝飾圖（未 Read，<40KB 預設）

原始內容

Quant

Factors

Value

Growth

Momentum

Quality

Low Vol

Current

29

5

Hist %Rank (1=Top)

47

29

5

14

25

34

72

98

72

27

72

63

72

Ibiden (4062) 89

Revising up our earnings forecasts, maintaining our bullish stance; Ibiden benefiting from higher demand for ABF substrates for GPU, EMIB-T, and ASIC

We change the time horizon of our price target from December 2026 to December 2027. We raise our December 2027 price target from ¥18,400 to ¥28,500 and reiterate our Overweight rating. Although the company raised its medium-term management plan (MTP; FY2023-27) targets at FY2025 results, its top-line assumptions for substrates for GPUs and EMIB-Ts seem cautious. At present, our assumption is that capacity will be tight from 2H FY2029, and if the company announces the construction of new facilities at the Gama and Ono Plants or the acquisition of external fabs, we think earnings will rise even higher above the MTP targets in FY2029-30. We believe the company will fully benefit from growing demand for AI servers, not only with substrates for GPUs and EMIB-T but also with the expansion of its standard ABF substrates for ASIC applications (we expect this from FY2028 onward). Furthermore, we still anticipate growth in the number of substrates for servers for Agentic AI. While Ibiden's share price has fallen sharply from its recent peak due to the recent risk-off sentiment toward AI-related stocks, we maintain a bullish stance since the company is in a solid position with regard to fundamentals, amid ongoing advancements in its substrate technology.

  • Earnings forecasts: We revise up our earnings forecasts in light of FY2025 results and current demand trends (we change our forex assumption from ¥152/ US$ to ¥155/US$). We revise up our operating profit forecasts from ¥81.0 billion to ¥115.6 billion for FY2026 (guidance: ¥90.0 billion; Bloomberg consensus estimate: ¥100.8 billion), from ¥97.5 billion to ¥156.9 billion for FY2027 (Bloomberg consensus estimate: ¥154.9 billion), from ¥172.1 billion to ¥209.4 billion for FY2028 (¥224.7 billion), and from ¥224.4 billion to ¥319.9 billion for FY2029, and we newly add a forecast of ¥392.6 billion for FY2030. The MTP targets sales of ¥650 billion and operating profit of ¥150 billion in FY2027 and sales of over ¥1 trillion and operating profit of over ¥300 billion in FY2030. However, guidance strikes us as cautious, particularly for substrates for EMIB-T and GPU applications. If there are additional investments to increase capacity, we think there will be room for significant upside over the FY2030 MTP targets.

Overweight

4062.T, 4062 JP Price (15 Jul 26):¥19,340

▲Price Target (Dec-27):¥28,500 Prior (Dec-26):¥18,400

Japan Equity Research

Technology - Electronic Components

Akinori Kanemoto AC

(81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Ikki Shibata

(81-3) 6736 8641 ikki.shibata@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

Key Changes (FYE Mar) Key Changes (FYE Mar) Key Changes (FYE Mar) Key Changes (FYE Mar)
Prev Cur Δ
Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 190.00 271.71 43.0%
Adj. EPS - 28E (¥) 229.08 369.74 61.4%

Style Exposure

Frice Ferrormance

Ferormance Univers

30k

J.P. Morgan

Market

20k

*

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

10k

0

Factors

Market: MSCI Japan

Macro:

Quant Styles:

LowVol

Value

DivYld

Oct 25

Jan 26

Apr 26

6M Corr

0.52

0.59

41%

1Y Corr

0.47

Jul 26

0.64

JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_001

— TOPIX (rebased)

YTD

187.3%

167.4%

Abs

Rel

1m

-15.0%

-17.2%

3m

106.2%

97.8%

12m

501.2%

456.5%

Company Data
Shares O/S (mn) 279
52-week range (¥) 27,500-3,029
Market cap ($ bn) 33.3
Exchange rate 162.25
Free float (%) 88.6%
3M ADV (mn) 8.58
3M ADV ($ mn) 1,005.5
Volatility (90 Day) 105
Index TOPIX
BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 13|3|1

Key Metrics (FYE Mar)

¥ in millions 2026/3A 2027/3E 2028/3E 2029/3E
Financial Estimates
Revenue 416,201.0 534,406.0 645,931.0 750,071.0
EBITDA 128,263 196,422 254,317 316,441
EBIT 62,027.0 115,621.8 156,916.8 209,440.8
Net income 63,713 80,312 109,289 146,056
Reported EPS 215.6 271.7 369.7 494.1
BBG EPS 192.61 248.24 369.09 -
Cashflow from operations 77,016 232,667 388,993 408,566
FCFF 11,047 20,980 87,306 136,879
Margins and Growth
Revenue Growth Y/Y (%) 12.7% 28.4% 20.9% 16.1%
EBIT margin 14.9% 21.6% 24.3% 27.9%
EBIT Growth 30.3% 86.4% 35.7% 33.5%
EBITDA margin 30.8% 36.8% 39.4% 42.2%
EBITDA Growth Y/Y (%) 26.0% 53.1% 29.5% 24.4%
Net margin 15.3% 15.0% 16.9% 19.5%
Fully Diluted EPS growth 89.0% 26.1% 36.1% 33.6%
Ratios
Effective Tax Rate 29.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Interest cover NM NM NM NM
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM NM
Net debt/EBITDA NM NM NM NM
ROE 12.2% 13.7% 16.4% 18.8%
Valuation
FCFF yield 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% 2.4%
Dividend yield 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
EV/Revenue 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5
EV/EBITDA 6.6 4.7 4.2 3.6
P/E 89.7 71.2 52.3 39.1

Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

In addition to the company's dominant market share in substrates for GPUs for AI servers, we also expect the company to see major earnings growth in EMIB substrates for ASICs and in standard ABF substrates　from growing demand for AI servers. We believe Ibiden is well-positioned to maximize benefits from the shift to larger and higher multi-layered FCBGA substrates for AI server-use GPUs because of its strong technological abilities.

Valuation

Our December 2027 price target of ¥28,500 is based on (1) the ¥16,300 value derived from a zero-growth ROIC model (EV/IC = ROIC/WACC) using our FY2030 estimates (Rf = 2.57%, Rp = 5.15%, beta = 1.30, WACC = 5.9%) plus (2) Ibiden's 75% premium to the sector-average P/E (from August 2025 to July 2026, 12-month forward Bloomberg consensus basis), reflecting the rise in Ibiden's share price since August 2025 on expectations for earnings growth for AI server applications. Our price target is equivalent to a P/E of 31x our FY2030 EPS estimate.

We calculated our previous December 2026 price target of ¥18,400 based on (1) the ¥10,200 value derived from a zerogrowth ROIC model (EV/IC = ROIC/WACC) using our FY2029 estimates (Rf = 2.2%, Rp = 5.15%, beta = 1.30, WACC = 6.45%) plus (2) Ibiden's 80% premium to the sector-average P/E (from August 2025 to May 2026, 12-month forward Bloomberg consensus basis), reflecting the rise in Ibiden's share price since August 2025 on expectations for earnings growth for AI server applications.

Performance Drivers Performance Drivers Performance Drivers Performance Drivers

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy for Performance Drivers; company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan estimates for all other tables. Note: Price history may not be complete or exact.

22%

32%

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

J P M O R G A N

  • Changes: We revise up our earnings forecasts mainly for the electronics business, and we lower them slightly for the ceramics business. In the electronics business, in addition to a slower rise in depreciation than we previously forecast, we also revise up our sales forecasts for GPUs for AI servers. We previously anticipated that EMIB substrates for ASICs used as accelerators for AI servers would start up from FY2028, but now we expect them to start up from FY2027 with the previous generation product (which we assume is a product with built-in silicon capacitors). As a result, we revise up our earnings forecasts for FY2026-27. In addition, we anticipate the launch of standard ABF substrates for ASICs from FY2028, and newly factor this into our earnings forecasts. We formulate our earnings forecasts for FY2029-30 on the assumption that capacity constraints can be eliminated through additional capacity expansion.
  • Our earnings forecasts call for earnings growth to significantly overshoot the company's forecasts from a medium- to long-term perspective, although this will depend on factors such as fluctuations in fixed costs associated with the start-up of plants as well as capex/depreciation schedules and the timing of the start-up of logic semiconductors. Looking ahead, the stock market's expectations for FY2029-30 earnings will likely rise, if Ibiden constructs new facilities in vacant spaces at the Gama and Ono Plants, and moreover, acquires external fabs. On the other hand, hiring human resources should also become important, given the prospect of significant capacity expansion.
  • Price target: Our December 2027 price target of ¥28,500 is based on (1) the ¥16,300 value derived from a zero-growth ROIC model (EV/IC = ROIC/WACC) using our FY2030 estimates (Rf = 2.57%, Rp = 5.15%, beta = 1.30, WACC = 5.9%) plus (2) Ibiden's 75% premium to the sector-average P/E (from August 2025 to July 2026, 12-month forward Bloomberg consensus basis), reflecting the rise in Ibiden's share price since August 2025 on expectations for earnings growth for AI server applications. Our price target is equivalent to a P/E of 31x our FY2030 EPS estimate. We change the base year for our price target from FY2029 to FY2030 due to factoring in our medium- to long-term earnings outlook, based on the company's medium-term outlook.

Figure 1: 12-Month Forward Consensus P/E, Sector Relative P/E

JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_002

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. consensus estimates, J.P. Morgan. Note: Share price and consensus as of July 13

Figure 2: 12-Month Forward Consensus P/B, Sector Relative P/B

JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_003

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. consensus estimates, J.P. Morgan. Note: Share price and consensus as of July 13

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Figure 3: 24-Month Forward Consensus P/E, Sector Relative P/E

JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_004

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. consensus estimates, J.P. Morgan. Note: Share price and consensus as of Jul 13

Figure 4: 24-Month Forward Consensus P/B, Sector Relative P/B

JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_005

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. consensus estimates, J.P. Morgan. Note: Share price and consensus as of Jul 13

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Figure 5: Earnings Forecast Summary

Ibiden 4062 Ibiden 4062 Ibiden 4062 JPY mn Sales YoY JPY mn YoY Operating Pofits OPM JPY mn Recurring YoY profits JPY mn Net YoY Profits EPS JPY BPS JPY DPS JPY Capex JPY mn Dep. JPY mn R&D JPY mn R&D JPY mn R&D JPY mn R&D JPY mn R&D JPY mn R&D JPY mn
FY3/24 370,511 -11.27% 47,568 -34.26% 12.84% 51,140 -32.87% 31,490 -39.66% 213.0 3,543 40 146,583 46,032 20,229 20,229 20,229 20,229 20,229 20,229
FY3/25 369,436 -0.29% 47,621 0.11% 12.89% 47,890 -6.36% 33,704 7.03% 228.1 3,513 40 157,304 54,205 27,451 27,451 27,451 27,451 27,451 27,451
FY3/26 416,201 12.66% 62,027 30.25% 14.90% 60,822 27.00% 63,713 89.04% 215.6 1,970 25 64,277 66,236 29,916 29,916 29,916 29,916 29,916 29,916
FY3/27E JPM 534,406 28.40% 115,622 86.41% 21.64% 118,332 94.55% 80,312 26.05% 271.7 2,223 35 210,000 80,800 37,000 37,000 37,000 37,000 37,000 37,000
FY3/28E JPM 645,931 20.87% 156,917 35.72% 24.29% 159,727 34.98% 109,289 36.08% 369.7 2,559 55 300,000 97,400 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000
FY3/29E JPM 750,071 16.12% 209,441 33.47% 27.92% 212,251 32.88% 146,056 33.64% 494.1 3,017 65 270,000 107,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000
FY3/30E JPM 988,955 31.85% 319,852 52.72% 32.34% 323,252 52.30% 223,756 53.20% 757.0 3,719 100 360,000 119,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000
FY3/31E JPM 1,139,560 15.23% 392,630 22.75% 34.45% 396,030 22.51% 274,701 22.77% 929.4 4,582 120 290,000 129,400 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 44,000
FY3/27E JPM Old 496,121 18.10% 81,020 29.67% 16.33% 83,830 35.33% 56,161 -26.12% 190.0 2,250 21 100,000 84,700 36,000 36,000 36,000 36,000 36,000 36,000
FY3/28E JPM Old 566,041 14.09% 97,520 20.37% 17.23% 100,330 19.68% 67,711 20.57% 229.1 2,471 22 170,000 128,500 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000 38,000
FY3/29E JPM Old 743,021 31.27% 172,050 76.43% 23.16% 175,450 74.87% 120,505 77.97% 407.7 2,879 23 270,000 197,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000
FY3/30E JPM Old 871,201 17.25% 224,410 30.43% 25.76% 227,810 29.84% 157,157 30.42% 531.7 3,417 25 210,000 220,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 42,000
FY3/27E 26/5
CoE 500,000 35.34% 90,000 88.99% 18.00% 90,000 87.93% 58,000 72.09% 196.2 - 35 210,000 81,000 37,000 37,000 37,000 37,000 37,000 37,000
FY3/26E BBG 516,998 39.94% 100,828 111.73% 19.50% 101,265 111.45% 70,747 109.91% 248.2 2,182 37 210,000 81,203 - - - - - -
FY3/27E BBG 646,742 25.10% 154,902 53.63% 23.95% 155,662 53.72% 109,165 54.30% 369.1 2,516 49 257,500 98,748
FY3/28E BBG 796,470 23.15% 224,706 45.06% 28.21% 215,769 38.61% 154,225 41.28% 527.7 2,976 59 152,500 116,706 - - - - - -
FY3/25 1H 2H 181,585 187,851 -3.23% 2.72% 28,512 19,109 18.44% -18.67% 15.70% 10.17% 29,531 18,359 10.09% -24.50% 20,527 13,177 14.73% -3.10% 69.4 44.6 1,659 1,757 20 20 83,532 73,772 22,900 31,305 15,491 15,491 15,491 15,491 15,491 15,491
FY3/26 1H 195,485 7.65% 32,573 14.24% 16.66% 32,305 9.39% 22,069 7.51% 74.7 1,881 30 34,810 25,429 15,900 15,900 15,900 15,900 15,900 15,900
FY3/27 2H 1HE JPM 220,716 243,674 17.50% 24.65% 29,454 49,043 54.14% 50.56% 13.34% 20.13% 28,517 49,848 55.33% 54.31% 41,644 33,634 216.04% 52.40% 140.9 113.8 1,970 - 15 - 29,467 105,000 40,807 35,700 14,016 18,500 14,016 18,500 14,016 18,500 14,016 18,500 14,016 18,500 14,016 18,500
2HE 1HE JPM 290,732 31.72% 66,578 126.04% 22.90% 68,483 140.15% 46,678 12.09% 157.9 - - 105,000 45,100 18,500 18,500 18,500 18,500 18,500 18,500
FY3/28 JPM 300,569 23.35% 70,620 44.00% 23.50% 72,025 44.49% 49,158 46.16% 166.3 - - 135,000 41,500 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000
2HE JPM 341,332 17.40% 16.00% 83,878 25.98% 24.57% 85,283 24.53% 58,438 25.19% 197.7 - - 165,000 55,900 51,300 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000
FY3/29 1HE 2HE JPM JPM 348,675 398,017 16.61% 92,304 30.70% 37.23% 26.47% 28.92% 93,709 116,514 30.11% 36.62% 64,336 80,300 30.88% 217.7 - - 135,000 135,000 55,700 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000 19,000
FY3/27E 1HE CoE 26/5 230,000 17.66% 115,109 16.66% 16.52% 37,500 16.08% 37.41% 271.7 15 - - - - - - - -
2HE CoE 26/5 270,000 22.33% 38,000 52,000 76.55% 19.26% 52,500 84.10% 23,000 35,000 4.22% -15.95% 77.8 118.4 - - 20 - - - - - - - -
FY3/25 1Q 88,220 -6.75% 11,295 38.06% 12.80% 12,868 26.19% 8,816 20.97% 29.8 1,717 - 40,321 10,198 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,500
2Q 3Q 93,365 88,752 0.35% 17,217 8.34% 18.44% 16,663 6,376 0.22% -53.06% 11,711 10.44% 39.6 1,659 - 43,211 12,702 6,460 6,460 6,460 8,300 6,460 6,460
FY3/26 4Q -4.08% 99,099 9.69% 12,764 6,345 -50.72% 20.18% 7.15% 12.88% 11,983 17,407 11.65% 4,274 8,903 -55.02% 117.41% 14.5 30.1 1,724 1,757 - - 26,971 46,801 15,278 16,027 7,191 7,191 7,191 7,191 7,191 7,191
1Q 2Q 97,464 10.48% 17,636 56.14% 18.09% 15.24% 14,898 35.27% -10.59% 12,728 44.37% 43.1 1,822 - 20,436 11,667 7,800 7,800 7,800 7,800 7,800 7,800
4.99% 14,937 -13.24% 9,341 -20.24% 31.6 1,881 - 14,374 13,762 8,100 8,100 8,100 8,100 8,100 8,100
98,021 30.2 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700
3Q 103,136 16.21% 117,580 11,954 18.65% 17,500 88.40% 37.10% 11.59% 14.88% 11,328 17,189 77.67% 43.44% 8,931 32,713 108.96% 267.44% 110.7 1,943 1,970 - 12,536 16,931 19,065 21,742 7,316 7,316 7,316 7,316 7,316 7,316
FY3/27 4Q 1QE JPM 117,554 20.61% 22,179 25.76% 18.87% 22,129 27.13% 14,860 16.75% 50.3 - - 52,500 17,300 9,000 9,500 9,000 9,500 9,000 9,500 9,000 9,500 9,000 9,500 9,000 9,500
2QE JPM 28.67% 26,864 79.85% 21.30% 27,719 86.06% 18,773 100.98% 63.5 - - 52,500 18,400
3QE 126,120 142,872 147,860 38.53% 32,394 170.99% 22.67% 33,444 195.23% 22,781 77.1 - 52,500 21,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500
4QE JPM JPM 25.75% 34,184 95.34% 23.12% 35,039 103.85% 23,897 155.08% -26.95% 80.8 - - - 52,500 23,600 9,000 23,600 9,000 23,600 9,000 23,600 9,000 23,600 9,000 23,600 9,000 23,600 9,000
FY3/28 1QE JPM JPM 150,429 27.97% 18.55% 36,224 34,024 63.33% 26.65% 24.08% 37,274 68.44% 25,462 23,435 71.34% 24.83% 86.1 - - 67,500 67,500 20,200 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500
2QE 149,520 22.76% 34,379 24.03% 79.3 - - 21,300
3QE 4QE JPM JPM 20.96% 17.11% 43,334 33.77% 25.07% 44,384 32.71% 30,439 33.62% 103.0 - - 82,500 82,500 27,400 28,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500
172,822 173,160 173,924 43,334 26.77% 25.03% 43,689 24.69% 29,952 25.34% 101.3 - -
FY3/29 1QE JPM 15.62% 46,131 27.35% 26.52% 47,181 26.58% 32,397 27.24% 109.6 - - 67,500 25,100 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500
2QE JPM 173,015 15.71% 45,131 32.64% 26.09% 45,486 32.31% 31,210 33.18% 105.6 - 67,500 26,200 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500
3QE 4QE JPM 16.53% 59,089 36.36% 29.34% 60,139 35.50% 41,467 36.23% 140.3 - - - 67,500 27,300 28,400 9,500
JPM 201,397 201,735 16.50% 59,089 36.36% 29.29% 59,444 36.06% 40,981 36.82% 138.6 - - 67,500

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. consensus estimates, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Note: Share price and consensus as of July 13

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Figure 6: Sales and OP Forecasts by Segment (Half Year, Full Year)

JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_006
FY JPY mn FY3/2024 FY3/2025 FY3/2026 FY3/2027E FY3/2028E JPM FY3/2029E JPM FY3/2030E JPM FY3/2031E FY3/2027E FY3/2028E FY3/2029E FY3/2030E FY3/2027E 1H 2H FY3/2026 1HE 2HE FY3/2027E 1HE 2HE FY3/2028E 1HE 2HE FY3/2029E FY3/2027E 1HE 2HE CoE CoE 26/5 26/5
JPM New New New New JPM New JPM Old JPM Old JPM Old JPM Old CoE 26/5
Sales 370,511 369,436 416,201 534,406 645,931 750,071 988,955 1,139,560 496,121 566,041 743,021 871,201 500,000 195,485 220,716 243,674 290,732 299,949 345,982 346,939 403,132 230,000 270,000
yoy %chg. -11.3% -0.3% - 12.7% - 28.4% - 20.9% - 16.1% - 31.8% - 15.2% - 18.1% - 14.1% 31.3% 17.3% 20.1% - 7.7% 17.5% 4.1% 12.9% 24.7% 31.7% 10.4% 19.3% 23.1% 19.0% 15.3% 15.7% 0.3% 16.5% 16.2% 17.7% 22.3% 4.2% 17.4%
seq %chg. - 113,328 131,669 191,622 238,917 297,441 413,852 492,630 154,540 - 175,040 - 255,050 - 311,410 - 67,913 105,078 63,756 86,543 3.2% 110,748 134,762 162,678 - -
Gross profits as a %of sales 102,471 27.7% 30.7% 31.6% 35.9% 37.0% 39.7% 41.8% 43.2% 31.1% 30.9% 34.3% 35.7% - 34.7% 28.9% 36.1% 35.5% 128,168 36.9% 37.0% 38.8% 40.4% - -
SGA 65,707 69,642 76,000 82,000 88,000 94,000 100,000 73,520 77,520 83,000 87,000 - 35,340 34,302 38,500 37,500 40,500 41,500 43,500 44,500 - -
as a %of sales 54,903 14.8% 17.8% 16.7% 14.2% 12.7% 11.7% 9.5% 8.8% 14.8% 13.7% 11.2% 10.0% - 18.1% 15.5% 13.2% 15.4% 13.5% 12.0% 12.5% 11.0% - -
Operating profits 47,568 47,621 62,027 115,622 156,917 209,441 319,852 392,630 81,020 97,520 172,050 224,410 90,000 32,573 29,454 66,578 49,043 70,248 86,668 91,262 118,178 38,000 52,000
yoy %chg. -34.3% 0.1% 30.3% 86.4% 35.7% 33.5% 52.7% 22.8% 29.7% 20.4% 76.4% 30.4% 45.1% 14.2% 54.1% 126.0% 50.6% 43.2% 30.2% 29.9% 36.4% 16.7% 76.5%
seq %chg. as a %of sales - - - 14.9% - 21.6% - - - - - - - - 18.0% - 70.5% -9.6% 35.8% 16.7% 13.3% 66.5% 5.5% 23.4% 5.3% 29.5% 29.0% 36.8%
Recurring profits 12.8% 12.9% 24.3% 27.9% 32.3% 34.5% 16.3% 17.2% 23.2% 25.8% 22.9% 20.1% 23.4% 26.3% 29.3% 16.5% 19.3%
as a %of sales 51,140 47,890 60,822 118,332 159,727 212,251 323,252 396,030 83,830 100,330 175,450 227,810 90,000 32,305 28,517 68,483 49,848 71,653 25.0% 88,073 92,667 119,583 37,500 52,500
Net Profits 13.8% 13.0% 14.6% 22.1% 24.7% 28.3% 32.7% 34.8% 16.9% 17.7% 23.6% 26.1% 18.0% 16.5% 12.9% 23.6% 20.5% 23.9% 48,897 25.5% 26.7% 29.7% 16.3% 19.4%
as a %of sales 31,490 33,704 8.5% 63,713 80,312 109,289 146,056 223,756 274,701 56,161 67,711 120,505 157,157 58,000 22,069 41,644 46,678 13.8% 16.1% 33,634 60,391 17.5% 63,607 82,448 23,000 35,000
9.1% 20,229 27,451 15.3% 29,916 15.0% 37,000 16.9% 38,000 19.5% 38,000 22.6% 42,000 24.1% 44,000 11.3% 12.0% 16.2% 18.0% 11.6% 11.3% 18.9% 18,500 18,500 16.3% 19,000 18.3% 20.5% 10.0% 13.0%
R&D Depreciation 46,032 54,205 44,298 66,236 55,800 80,800 71,000 97,400 88,000 107,000 119,000 129,400 36,000 84,700 38,000 128,500 40,000 197,000 42,000 220,000 210,000 81,000 37,000 71,000 15,900 14,016 25,429 40,807 35,700 45,100 20,500 19,000 41,500 37,000 19,000 51,300 19,000 55,700 - - - -
Electronics Capex 36,703 98,000 110,000 360,000 120,000 74,000 100,000 118,000 170,000 187,000 270,000 210,000 35,300 31,000 29,467 55,900 51,000 165,000 47,000 135,000 51,000 - -
146,583 157,304 64,277 210,000 300,000 270,000 290,000 210,000 34,810 105,000 40,000 105,000 135,000 135,000
Inventory 67,175 70,962 - - - - - - - - - - 68,446 70,962 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
65,318 -
Sales Electronics yoy %chg. seq %chg. Ceramic 190,700 197,223 -23.94% 3.42% - - 96,481 84,068 -12.87% - 243,316 23.37% - 82,554 -1.80% 354,675 45.77% - 459,800 29.64% - 558,940 21.56% - 88,800 792,668 41.82% - 89,956 1.30% 938,003 18.33% - 91,226 1.41% - 316,000 27.48% - 85,000 4.83% - 378,720 19.85% - 88,200 3.76% - 99,121 - 90,300 2.38% - - 92,600 2.55% 549,600 671,480 330,000 45.12% 22.18% 35.63% - 80,000 -3.09% 113,547 15.56% 14.73% 39,689 -7.99% - -3.04% 129,769 157,225 197,450 31.12% 38.47% 52.15% 14.29% 21.16% 25.58% 42,865 4.72% 8.00% 42,249 48,082 42,200 43,200 6.33% -1.55% 210,300 249,500 33.76% 26.36% 6.51% 18.64% 44,400 2.78% 2.30% 44,400 2.30% 0.00% 254,290 20.92% 1.92% 44,400 0.00% 0.00% 54,082 15.59% 20.00% 38,000 42,000 -4.26% -2.02% -11.35% 10.53% 42,000 48,000 304,650 22.10% 19.80% 150,000 32.10% 180,000 38.71%
yoy %chg. seq %chg. Others yoy %chg. 7.28% 88,145 - 85,400 3.45% - 87,800 2.81% - 1.14% - 102,331 - 106,331 3.91% 110,331 3.76% 95,121 4.39% 4.21% 103,121 4.04% - 107,121 90,000 5.11% 0.28% 0.78% 2.37% 44,249 50,082 4.73% 4.16% 43,400 2.84% 0.46% 46,249 52,082 3.99% 48,249 4.32% 3.84%
- 83,330 8.35% 5.78% - 90,331 2.48% 94,331 4.43% 98,331 4.24% 4.07% 3.88% -0.37% 13.81% 4.52% -0.59% -12.65%
seq %chg. Total Sales - - - - 645,931 - 750,071 - 988,955 - 1,139,560 - - - - - -11.89% 13.18% -7.65% 12.09% -0.17% 14.29% -0.17% 14.29% -0.17% 14.29% -0.17% 14.29% -0.17% 14.29% -0.17% 14.29% -0.17% 14.29%
yoy %chg. 370,511 369,436 -11.27% -0.29% 416,201 12.66% 534,406 28.40% 20.87% 16.12% 31.85% 15.23% 496,121 18.10% 566,041 14.09% 743,021 871,201 500,000 195,485 220,716 -7.97% 243,674 12.61% 299,949 -7.36% 346,939 230,000 270,000 230,000 270,000 230,000 270,000 230,000 270,000 230,000 270,000 230,000 270,000 230,000 270,000
seq %chg. 31.27% 17.25% 20.13% 7.65% 17.50% 290,732 24.65% 31.72% 23.09% 345,982 19.00% 15.67% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33% 17.66% 22.33%
- - - - - - - - 10.40% 3.17% 15.35% 0.28% 403,132 16.52% 16.20% 17.39% 17.39% 17.39% 17.39% 17.39% 17.39% 17.39%
Operating profits Electronics yoy %chg. 27,276 26,847 -55.02% -1.57% - 13.6% 45,248 68.54% 99,682 120.30% - 140,057 40.50% - 192,741 617.92% - 303,105 569.87% 375,772 276.97% - 64,500 37.99% - 20.4% 80,360 24.59% - 154,300 474.74% 92.01% - - 206,240 75,000 341.23% 65.75% 25,429 41.35% 4.06% 12.91% 19,819 42,273 57,408 123.77% 66.24% 189.66% 19.31% 62,918 77,138 48.84% 34.37% 4.21% 84,012 108,728 33,000 33.53% 40.95% 56.61% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27% 42,000 111.92% 27.27%
seq %chg. OP margin Ceramic yoy %chg. - 14.3% 12,218 - 18.6% - 28.1% - 30.5% - 34.5% 8,900 - 38.2% 40.1% 21.2% 28.1% 33.66% 30.7% - 22.7% 187.11% -22.06% 22.4% 15.3% 113.30% 35.80% 26.9% 9.60% 29.9% 22.60% 30.9% 8.91% 29.42% 35.7% 66.51% 22.0% 23.3% 2,500
-8.52% 7,646 -37.42% 8,140 6.46% 9,060 11.30% -27.16% 8,947 17.01% 9,058 11.27% 8,720 13.20% 9,360 7.34% 9,950 -18.56% 10,370 34.62% 6,000 -21.53% 3,839 -45.81% 3,807 -25.85% 3,870 0.81% 29.1% 4,270 4,430 14.47% 33.0% -6.05% 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
seq %chg. - - - - 6.30% 4.22% - -25.22% -0.83% 1.65% 3.75% 4,630 4,550 -1.73% 4.60% -8.06%
13,356 117.91% - - - - -34.33% 4,350 -1.81% -6.05%
OP margin 14.5% - 9.3% 9.5% 8,000 - 10.3% 10.0% 9.9% 8,000 9.9% 10.3% 10.6% 11.0% 11.2% 9.7% 8.9% 9.2% 12.16% 10.34% 9.9% 6.6% 8.43% 4.51% 10.4% 5,000 40.00%
Others 13.8% 7,057 8,706 8,964 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 0.10% 8,000 0.00% 8,000 -8.11% 8,000 0.10% 7.5% 9,000 0.40% 3,250 5,714 -6.82% 9.51% 10.2% 3,000 0.00% 9.8% 3,000 2,500 8.3% 6,500 10.2% 5,000 0.00%
yoy %chg. seq %chg. 15.01% 23.37% - - 2.96% - -10.75% - 0.00% - -8.11% - -10.75% - 0.00% - - - 0.00% 0.00% - 75.82% 3,000 5,000 -7.69% -12.50% -47.50% 66.67% 0.00% -40.00% -47.37% -56.25% 13.76% 160.00%
OP margin 8.5% 8.1% 7.5% 7.3% 8.4% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% 10.0% -37.72% 7.7% 11.9% 6.8% 0.00% 66.67% -40.00% 6.5% 9.6% 6.0% 0 - - 6.2% -100 - 66.67% 9.2% 13.5%
Elimination 8.5% 9.9% -121 -150 - 9.9% 169 -200 -200 7.8% -200 -200 -200 -200 -200 -200 -200 0 -100.00% 55 114 10.0% -100 -100 -100 0
yoy %chg. Total OP yoy %chg. - - - 47,568 47,621 -34.26% 0.11% - 62,027 30.25% 115,622 86.41% - 156,917 35.72% - 209,441 33.47% - - - 319,852 52.72% - 392,630 22.75% - - 81,020 29.67% - 97,520 20.37% - - - - - - 172,050 224,410 76.43% 30.43% - - 49,043 50.56% 126.04% -100 - - 86,668 43.24% 30.17% - - - - 91,262 29.91% -100 - - - 118,178 36.36% - - - 66,578 70,248 - - - - 38,000 16.66% - - 52,000 76.55%
seq %chg. OP margin - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 90,000 32,573 45.10% 14.24% 70.46% - - - 29,454 54.14% -9.58% - - -

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Figure 7: Sales and OP Forecasts by Segment (Quarterly)

FY JPY mn FY3/2025 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY3/2026 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY3/2027E 1QE JPM 2QE JPM 3QE JPM 4QE JPM JPM FY3/2028E 1QE JPM 2QE JPM 3QE JPM 4QE JPM FY3/2029E 1QE 3QE 2QE 4QE JPM 2QE 4QE JPM JPM 2QE 4QE JPM JPM
Sales 88,220 93,365 88,752 99,099 97,464 98,021 103,136 117,580 117,554 126,120 142,872 147,860 150,429 149,520 172,822 173,160 173,924 173,015 201,397 201,735 201,735 201,735 201,735 201,735
yoy %chg. -6.7% 0.4% -4.1% 9.7% 10.5% 5.0% 16.2% 18.6% 20.6% 28.7% 38.5% 25.8% 28.0% 18.6% 21.0% 17.1% 15.7% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%
-2.4% 5.8% -1.6% 14.0% 0.0% 13.3% 3.5% 1.7% -0.6% 15.6% 0.2% 15.6% 16.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
qoq %chg. 25,614 32,755 -4.9% 23,602 11.7% 31,357 35,072 0.6% 32,841 5.2% 28,070 35,686 40,679 7.3% 45,864 51,394 53,684 56,224 54,524 63,834 64,334 0.4% 67,631 -0.5% 67,131 81,089 81,589 81,589 81,589 81,589 81,589
Gross profits as a %of 29.0% 33.5% 36.9% 37.2%
sales SGA 14,319 35.1% 15,538 26.6% 17,257 31.6% 18,593 36.0% 17,436 17,904 27.2% 16,116 30.4% 18,186 34.6% 18,500 36.4% 19,000 36.0% 19,000 36.3% 19,500 37.4% 20,000 36.5% 20,500 20,500 21,000 38.9% 21,500 22,000 38.8% 40.3% 40.4% 22,500 40.4% 22,500 22,000 40.4% 22,500 40.4% 22,500
as a %of sales 16.2% 16.6% 19.4% 18.8% 17.9% 18.3% 15.6% 15.5% 15.7% 15.1% 13.3% 13.2% 13.3% 13.7% 11.9% 12.1% 12.4% 12.7% 10.9% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2%
Operating profits 11,295 17,217 6,345 12,764 17,636 14,937 11,954 17,500 22,179 26,864 32,394 34,184 36,224 34,024 43,334 43,334 46,131 45,131 59,089 59,089 59,089 59,089 59,089 59,089
yoy %chg. 38.1% 8.3% -50.7% 20.2% 56.1% -13.2% 88.4% 37.1% 25.8% 79.9% 171.0% 95.3% 63.3% 26.7% 33.8% 26.8% 27.3% 32.6% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4%
qoq %chg. 6.3% 52.4% -63.1% 101.2% 38.2% -15.3% -20.0% 46.4% 26.7% 21.1% 20.6% 5.5% 6.0% -6.1% 27.4% 0.0% 6.5% -2.2% 30.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
as a %of sales 12.8% 18.4% 7.1% 12.9% 18.1% 15.2% 11.6% 14.9% 18.9% 21.3% 22.7% 23.1% 24.1% 22.8% 25.1% 25.0% 26.5% 26.1% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3% 29.3%
Pretax profits 12,868 16,663 6,376 11,983 17,407 14,898 11,328 17,189 22,129 27,719 33,444 35,039 37,274 34,379 44,384 43,689 47,181 45,486 60,139 59,444 59,444 59,444 59,444 59,444
as a %of sales 14.6% 17.8% 7.2% 12.1% 17.9% 15.2% 11.0% 14.6% 18.8% 22.0% 23.4% 23.7% 24.8% 23.0% 25.7% 25.2% 27.1% 26.3% 29.9% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5%
Net Profits 9,341 8,931 32,713 14,860 25,462 23,435 30,439 29,952 41,467 40,981 40,981 40,981 40,981 40,981
as a %of sales 8,816 11,711 4,274 8,903 12,728 9.5% 8.7% 27.8% 12.6% 18,773 22,781 23,897 16.9% 15.7% 17.6% 17.3% 32,397 31,210
10.0% 12.5% 4.8% 9.0% 13.1% 14.9% 15.9% 16.2% 18.6% 18.0% 20.6% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3%
R&D Depreciation 5,500 6,460 8,300 7,191 7,800 8,100 6,700 7,316 9,000 9,500 18,400 9,500 9,000 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500
10,198 8,100 12,702 15,278 16,027 11,667 13,762 19,065 21,742 17,300 21,500 23,600 20,200 21,300 27,400 28,500 25,100 26,200 27,300 28,400 28,400 28,400 28,400 28,400
Electronics Capex 40,321 10,200 43,211 12,000 13,998 9,300 11,200 16,400 18,900 15,000 16,000 19,000 21,000 18,000 67,500 19,000 25,000 26,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 67,500 26,000 67,500 26,000 67,500 26,000 67,500 26,000 67,500
Inventory 26,971 46,801 20,436 14,374 12,536 16,931 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 67,500 82,500 82,500 67,500 67,500 67,500
68,054 69,201 67,175 67,552 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
73,136 68,446 73,426 70,962 101,050 105,150 26.15% 124,750 29.41% 124,750 23.45% - 127,145 127,145 152,325 22.10% 152,325 22.10% 152,325 22.10% 152,325 22.10% 152,325 22.10%
Electronics yoy %chg. qoq %chg. 44,949 -10.99% 53,305 2.35% 18.59% 47,163 3.41% -11.52% 51,806 21.85% 9.84% 56,285 25.22% 57,262 7.42% 1.74% 58,366 23.75% 1.93% 71,403 37.83% 22.34% 73,875 31.25% 3.46% 83,350 45.56% 12.83% 96,400 65.16% 15.66% 41.52% 4.82% 42.34% 4.06% 105,150 18.64% 0.00% 22,200 20.92% 1.92% 22,200 20.92% 0.00% 19.80% 22,200 0.00% 0.00% 22,200 0.00% 22,200 0.00% 22,200 0.00% 22,200 0.00% 22,200
Ceramic 5.73% 23,571 -3.40% 19,564 18,921 -23.61% 22,012 -6.74% 8.65% 19,600 -16.85% 20,089 2.68% 20,898 10.45% 21,967 -0.20% 5.12% 21,100 7.65% 21,100 5.03% 21,600 3.36% 21,600 -1.67% 21,700 2.84% 0.00% 21,700 2.84% 22,200 2.78% 2.78% 22,200 2.30% 2.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
yoy %chg. qoq %chg. -0.13% 19,700 -17.49% -17.00% -3.29% 16.34% 25,281 -10.96% 21,579 2.49% 20,670 4.03% 23,872 24,210 -3.95% 0.00% 21,670 2.37% 0.00% 0.46% 23,579 0.00% 22,670 2.30% 25,872 0.00% 26,210 0.00% 24,579 0.00% 23,670 0.00% 26,872 0.00% 27,210 0.00% 27,210 0.00% 27,210 0.00% 27,210 0.00% 27,210
Others yoy %chg. 20,496 22,668 2.33% 4.35% 9.54% 0.85% 5.31% -4.24% 22,579 4.63% 24,872 25,210 4.61% 4.02% 3.97% 4.24% 4.41% 3.87% 3.82% 3.82% 3.82% 3.82% 3.82%
-0.01% -18.69% 18.82% 4.04% 10.60% 11.53% -14.64% -4.21% 15.49% 1.42% -6.74% 4.84% 4.19% 4.13% 4.43% -6.47% -3.86% 14.12% 1.31% 13.53% 1.26% 1.26% 1.26% 1.26% 1.26%
qoq %chg. 88,220 -6.75% 93,365 88,752 99,099 97,464 98,021 4.99% 103,136 16.21% 117,580 18.65% 117,554 -4.03% 126,120 14.78% 1.36% 147,860 150,429 149,520 18.55% 172,822 173,160 -6.22% 173,924 -3.70% 173,015 201,397
Total Sales yoy %chg. -2.35% 0.35% 5.83% 9.69% 10.48% -1.65% 0.57% 5.22% 14.00% 20.61% -0.02% 28.67% 142,872 38.53% 25.75% 27.97% 1.74% -0.60% 20.96% 15.58% 17.11% 15.62% 15.71% 16.53% 201,735 16.50% 201,735 16.50% 201,735 16.50% 201,735 16.50% 201,735 16.50%
qoq %chg. -4.08% -4.94% 11.66% 7.29% 13.28% 3.49% 0.20% -0.52% 16.40% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%
Operating profits 0.44%
Electronics yoy %chg. 5,314 19.39% 12,676 9.84% 1,920 -74.98% 6,937 92.11% 14,028 163.98% 11,401 -10.06% 7,608 296.25% -33.27% 12,211 76.03% 60.50% 17.1% 18,794 33.98% 53.91% 25.4% 23,479 105.94% 28,309 20.57% 29.4% 29,099 272.10% 138.30% 32,559 73.24% 11.89% 30,359 29.30% -6.76% 28.9% 39,069 38.01% 28.69% 31.3% 38,069 30.83% -2.56% 30.5% 42,506 30.55% 11.66% 33.4% -2.35% 32.6% 41,506 36.72% 32.18% 36.0% 41.49% -1.82% 35.4% 41.49% -1.82% 35.4% 41.49% -1.82% 35.4% 41.49% -1.82% 35.4%
qoq %chg. OP margin Ceramic 47.16% 11.8% 4,282 138.54% 23.8% 2,802 -84.85% 4.1% 261.30% 13.4% 2,881 102.22% 24.9% 2,096 -18.73% 19.9% 1,743 13.0% 2,064 1,743 1,935 24.93% 28.2% 2.79% 28.8% 31.0% 2,215 2,215 2,315 2,315 2,175 2,175 2,275
50.88% -4.01% -34.56% 2,253 -31.13% -51.05% -37.79% -8.39% -39.50% -7.68% 1,935 11.02% 2,135 2,135 14.47% 14.47% 0.00% 8.43% -1.81% -1.73% 2,275 -1.73% 2,275 -1.73% 2,275 -1.73% 2,275 -1.73% 2,275 -1.73% 2,275 -1.73% 2,275 -1.73%
yoy %chg. qoq %chg. 2.37% -34.05% 18.42% -15.55% 11.02% 3.44% 22.49% 3.75% 4.51% 4.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
OP margin 18.2% 14.3% -19.59% 11.9% 27.87% 13.1% -27.25% -16.84% 8.7% 9.9% 7.9% 9.2% 0.00% 10.34% 0.00% 9.9% 10.2% 10.2% 10.4% 8.43% 0.00% 10.4% -1.81% 0.00% 9.8% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%
Others 1,769 1,719 2,404 2,814 10.7% 1,503 1,747 2,242 3,472 1,500 9.2% 3,000 1,500 1,500 3,000 9.8% 1,500 -6.05% 1,500 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
9.9% 2,000 2,000 0.00% 0.00% 50.00% 11.4% -50 0.00%
yoy %chg. qoq %chg. 91.45% -37.73% 11.84% 36.98% -0.95% 17.05% -15.04% 1.63% -6.74% 28.33% 23.38% 54.86% -0.20% -56.80% 1,500 -14.14% 0.00% -10.79% -13.59% 50.00% 0.00% -50.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.3% 33.33% 0.00% 50.00% 0.00% 50.00%
-2.83% 16.23% 33.33% 0.00% 33.33% 0.00% 0.00%
OP margin Elimination 9.0% 8.4% 39.85% 10.6% 11.1% -46.59% 7.0% 8.5% 9.4% 40 14.3% 74 6.6% -50 8.0% 11.9% 6.4% 6.6% -50 7.7% -50 -50.00% 6.1% 7.4% -50 11.0% -50 11.0% -50
-232 132 9 46 - 6.9% -50 -50 -50 -
-70 - 20 - - - - - -50 - -50 - - - - -50 - - - - - - -
yoy %chg. qoq %chg. OP margin Total OP yoy %chg. - - 11,295 38.06% - - - 17,217 8.34% - - - 6,345 -50.72% - - - 12,764 20.18% - - 17,636 56.14% - - 14,937 -13.24% - - 11,954 88.40% - 17,500 37.10% - - 22,179 25.76% - - - 26,864 79.85% - - - 32,394 170.99% - - - - 34,184 95.34% - 36,224 63.33% - - 34,024 26.65% - - 43,334 33.77% - 43,334 26.77% - 27.35% - 59,089 36.36% 36.36% - - - - 46,131 45,131 32.64% - - - - 59,089

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Figure 8: Profit and Loss Statement

JPM_Ibiden__4062__Revisi_2026-07-15_5357892_007
FY
JPY mn Sales COGS Gross Profit SG&A Operating Profit Financial Income and Expenses Foreign Exchange Gains / Losses Equity method income Others FY3/2025 FY3/2026 FY3/2027E FY3/2028E FY3/2029E FY3/2030E FY3/2031E FY3/2026 FY3/2027 FY3/2028 FY3/2029 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE 369,436 416,201 534,406 645,931 750,071 988,955 1,139,560 97,464 98,021 103,136 117,580 117,554 126,120 142,872 147,860 150,429 149,520 172,822 173,160 173,924 173,015 201,397 201,735 256,108 284,532 342,784 407,014 452,630 575,103 646,930 62,392 65,180 75,066 81,894 76,875 80,256 91,478 94,176 94,205 94,996 108,988 108,826 106,293 105,884 120,308 120,146 113,328 131,669 191,622 238,917 297,441 413,852 492,630 35,072 32,841 28,070 35,686 40,679 45,864 51,394 53,684 56,224 54,524 63,834 64,334 67,631 67,131 81,089 81,589 65,707 69,642 76,000 82,000 88,000 94,000 100,000 17,436 17,904 16,116 18,186 18,500 19,000 19,000 19,500 20,000 20,500 20,500 21,000 21,500 22,000 22,000 22,500 47,621 62,027 115,622 156,917 209,441 319,852 392,630 17,636 14,937 11,954 17,500 22,179 26,864 32,394 34,184 36,224 34,024 43,334 43,334 46,131 45,131 59,089 59,089 3,199 2,402 2,410 2,410 2,410 3,000 3,000 877 414 707 404 950 255 950 255 950 255 950 255 950 255 950 255 -1,336 320 1,000 0 0 0 0 -127 553 -331 225 0 500 0 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,594 -3,927 -700 400 400 400 400 -979 -1,006 -1,002 -940 -1,000 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Recurring Profit Extraordinary Gains Extraordinary Losses Profit Before Tax (EBT ） Corporate Income Tax Minority Interest Net Income Tax Rate %to Sales COGS Gross Profit 47,890 60,822 118,332 159,727 212,251 323,252 396,030 17,407 14,898 11,328 17,189 22,129 27,719 33,444 35,039 37,274 34,379 44,384 43,689 47,181 45,486 60,139 59,444 54,235 59,281 800 800 800 800 800 1,302 3,719 3,282 50,978 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 50,674 29,011 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 1,663 3,677 3,393 20,278 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 51,451 91,092 115,132 156,527 209,051 320,052 392,830 17,046 14,939 11,217 47,890 21,329 26,919 32,644 34,239 36,474 33,579 43,584 42,889 46,381 44,686 59,339 58,644 17,400 26,929 34,540 46,958 62,715 96,015 117,849 4,168 5,514 2,188 15,059 6,399 8,076 9,793 10,272 10,942 10,074 13,075 12,867 13,914 13,406 17,802 17,593 346 449 280 280 280 280 280 148 86 97 118 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 33,704 63,713 80,312 109,289 146,056 223,756 274,701 12,728 9,341 8,931 32,713 14,860 18,773 22,781 23,897 25,462 23,435 30,439 29,952 32,397 31,210 41,467 40,981 33.8% 29.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 24.45% 36.91% 19.51% 31.44% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 69.32% 68.36% 64.14% 63.01% 60.34% 58.15% 56.77% 64.02% 66.50% 72.78% 69.65% 65.40% 63.63% 64.03% 63.69% 62.62% 63.53% 63.06% 62.85% 61.11% 61.20% 59.74% 59.56% 30.68% 31.64% 35.86% 36.99% 39.66% 41.85% 43.23% 35.98% 33.50% 27.22% 30.35% 34.60% 36.37% 35.97% 36.31% 37.38% 36.47% 36.94% 37.15% 38.89% 38.80% 40.26% 40.44% 17.79% 16.73% 14.22% 12.69% 11.73% 9.50% 8.78% 17.89% 18.27% 15.63% 15.47% 15.74% 15.07% 13.30% 13.19% 13.30% 13.71% 11.86% 12.13% 12.36% 12.72% 10.92% 11.15%
Per Share Shares Outstanding(thousands) Fully Diluted EPS （ JPY ） Fully Diluted 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 279,221 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 295,580 121 228 288 391 523 801 984 46 33 32 117 53 67 82 86 91 84 109 107 116 112 149 114 216 272 370 494 757 929 43 32 30 111 50 64 77 81 86 79 103 101 110 106 140 315 465 577 740 906 1,228 1,447 87 83 100 195 115 133 159 170 164 160 207 209 206 206 246 297 440 545 699 856 1,160 1,367 83 78 95 184 109 126 150 161 154 151 196 198 195 194 233
CFPS Fullu Dilluted （ ）
DPS （ JPY ） DOE Dividend Payout Ratio R&D as a %of sales Depreciation 対 as a %of sales 1,757 1,970 2,223 2,559 3,017 3,719 4,582 1,822 1,881 1,943 1,970 - - - - - - - - - - - 20.0 25.0 35.0 55.0 65.0 100.0 120.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.14% 1.27% 1.57% 2.15% 2.15% 2.69% 2.62% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16.57% 10.96% 12.17% 14.05% 12.43% 12.48% 12.20% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
27,451 29,916 37,000 38,000 38,000 42,000 44,000 7,800 8,100 6,700 7,316 9,000 9,500 9,500 9,000 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 7.43% 7.19% 6.92% 5.88% 5.07% 4.25% 3.86% 8.00% 8.26% 6.50% 6.22% 7.66% 7.53% 6.65% 6.09% 6.32% 6.35% 5.50% 5.49% 5.46% 5.49% 4.72% 54,205 66,236 80,800 97,400 107,000 119,000 129,400 11,667 13,762 19,065 21,742 17,300 18,400 21,500 23,600 20,200 21,300 27,400 28,500 25,100 26,200 27,300 14.67% 15.91% 15.12% 15.08% 14.27% 12.03% 11.36% 11.97% 14.04% 18.49% 18.49% 14.72% 14.59% 15.05% 15.96% 13.43% 14.25% 15.85% 16.46% 14.43% 15.14% 13.56% 44,298 55,800 71,000 88,000 98,000 110,000 120,000 9,300 11,200 16,400 18,900 15,000 16,000 19,000 21,000 18,000 19,000 25,000 26,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 11.99% 13.41% 13.29% 13.62% 13.07% 11.12% 10.53% 9.54% 11.43% 15.90% 16.07% 12.76% 12.69% 13.30% 14.20% 11.97% 12.71% 14.47% 15.02% 13.22% 13.87% 12.41%
9,500 4.71% 28,400 14.08% 26,000 12.89% 5,807 6,000 4,800 4,000 3,200 2,800 2,400 1,400 1,500 1,500 1,600 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 800 800 800 1.57% 1.44% 0.90% 0.62% 0.43% 0.28% 0.21% 1.44% 1.53% 1.45% 1.36% 1.02% 0.95% 0.84% 0.81% 0.66% 0.67% 0.58% 0.58% 0.46% 0.46% 0.40% 0.40%
Electronics as a %of sales Ceramic 4,100 4,436 5,000 5,400 5,800 6,200 7,000 967 1,062 1,165 1,242 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,300 1,400 1,500 1.11% 1.07% 0.94% 0.84% 0.77% 0.63% 0.61% 0.99% 1.08% 1.13% 1.06% 0.94% 0.95% 0.91% 0.95% 0.80% 0.87% 0.81% 0.87% 0.75% 0.81% 0.74% 157,304 64,277 210,000 300,000 270,000 360,000 290,000 20,436 14,374 12,536 16,931 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 67,500 67,500 82,500 82,500 67,500 67,500 67,500 42.58% 15.44% 39.30% 46.44% 36.00% 36.40% 25.45% 20.97% 14.66% 12.15% 14.40% 44.66% 41.63% 36.75% 35.51% 44.87% 45.14% 47.74% 47.64% 38.81% 39.01% 33.52% 146,755 58,066 200,000 290,000 260,000 350,000 280,000 18,773 13,170 10,944 15,179 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 65,000 65,000 80,000 80,000 65,000 65,000 65,000
as a %of sales Others as a %of sales CAPEX as a %of sales 39.72% 13.95% 37.42% 44.90% 34.66% 35.39% 24.57% 19.26% 13.44% 10.61% 12.91% 42.53% 39.64% 35.00% 33.82% 43.21% 43.47% 46.29% 46.20% 37.37% 37.57% 32.27% 7,104 1,758 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 503 516 434 305 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Electronics as a %of sales 1.92% 0.42% 0.37% 0.31% 0.27% 0.20% 0.18% 0.52% 0.53% 0.42% 0.26% 0.43% 0.40% 0.35% 0.34% 0.33% 0.33% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.25%
Ceramic
as a %of sales 3,445 4,453 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 1,160 688 1,158 1,447 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Others as a %of sales 0.93% 1.07% 1.50% 1.24% 1.07% 0.81% 0.70% 1.19% 0.70% 1.12% 1.23% 1.70% 1.59% 1.40% 1.35% 1.33% 1.34% 1.16% 1.16% 1.15% 1.16% 0.99%
101,826 128,263 196,422 254,317 316,441 438,852 522,030 29,303 28,699 31,019 39,242 39,479 45,264 53,894 57,784 56,424 55,324 70,734 71,834 71,231 71,331 86,389
0.25% 2,000 0.99% 87,489
YoY Analysis Sales Gross Profit SG&A Operating Profit Recurring Profit Profit Before Tax -0.29% 12.66% 28.40% 20.87% 16.12% 31.85% 15.23% 10.48% 4.99% 16.21% 18.65% 20.61% 28.67% 38.53% 25.75% 27.97% 18.55% 20.96% 17.11% 15.62% 15.71% 16.53% 16.50% 10.60% 16.18% 45.53% 24.68% 24.50% 39.14% 19.04% 36.93% 0.26% 18.93% 13.81% 15.99% 39.66% 83.09% 50.43% 38.21% 18.88% 24.21% 19.84% 20.29% 23.12% 27.03% 26.82% 19.68% 5.99% 9.13% 7.89% 7.32% 6.82% 6.38% 21.77% 15.23% -6.61% -2.19% 6.10% 6.12% 17.90% 7.23% 8.11% 7.89% 7.89% 7.69% 7.50% 7.32% 7.32% 7.14% 0.11% 30.25% 86.41% 35.72% 33.47% 52.72% 22.75% 56.14% -13.24% 88.40% 37.10% 25.76% 79.85% 170.99% 95.34% 63.33% 26.65% 33.77% 26.77% 27.35% 32.64% 36.36% 36.36% -6.36% 27.00% 94.55% 34.98% 32.88% 52.30% 22.51% 35.27% -10.59% 77.67% 43.44% 27.13% 86.06% 195.23% 103.85% 68.44% 24.03% 32.71% 24.69% 26.58% 32.31% 35.50% 36.06% 8.47% 77.05% 26.39% 35.95% 33.56% 53.10% 22.74% 42.94% -1.92% 85.01% 162.67% 25.13% 80.19% 191.02% -28.50% 71.01% 24.74% 33.51% 25.26% 27.16% 33.08% 36.15% 36.73%
Net Profit 7.03% 89.04% 26.05% 36.08% 33.64% 53.20% 22.77% 44.37% -20.24% 108.96% 267.44% 16.75% 100.98% 155.08% -26.95% 71.34% 24.83% 33.62% 25.34% 27.24% 33.18% 36.23% 36.82% 279,221 295,580
BPS JPY 147 139 248 235 -
- - -
1,600 0.79% 67,500
33.46% 65,000 32.22% 500
EBITDA yoy %chg.
8.79% 25.96% 53.14% 29.47% 24.43% 38.68% 18.95% 36.34% -4.08% 43.45% 36.30% 34.73% 57.72% 73.75% 47.25% 42.92% 22.23% 31.25% 24.31% 26.24% 28.93% 22.13% - - - - - - - 1.78% -2.06% 8.08% 26.51% 0.60% 14.65% 19.07% 7.22% -2.35% -1.95% 27.85% 1.56% -0.84% 0.14% 21.11%
qoq %chg. 21.79% 1.27% 27.56% 30.82% 36.76% 39.37% 42.19% 44.38% 45.81% 30.07% 29.28% 30.08% 33.37% 33.58% 35.89% 37.72% 39.08% 37.51% 37.00% 40.93% 41.48% 40.96% 41.23% 42.89% 43.37%
as a %of sales Cashflow 87,909 129,949 161,112 206,689 253,056 342,756 404,101 24,395 23,103 27,996 54,455 32,160 37,173 44,281 47,497 45,662 44,735 57,839 58,452 57,497 57,410 68,767 13.40% 47.82% 23.98% 28.29% 22.43% 35.45% 17.90% 28.30% -5.37% 43.19% 118.43% 31.83% 60.90% 58.17% -12.78% 41.98% 20.34% 30.62% 23.06% 25.92% 28.33% 18.89%
yoy %chg. 69,381 - - - - - - - -2.15% -5.30% 21.18% 94.51% -40.94% 15.59% 19.12% 7.26% -3.86% -2.03% 29.29% 1.06% -1.63% -0.15% 19.78% 23.80% 31.22% 30.15% 32.00% 33.74% 34.66% 35.46% 25.03% 23.57% 27.14% 46.31% 27.36% 29.47% 30.99% 32.12% 30.35% 29.92% 33.47% 33.76% 33.06% 33.18% 34.15%
qoq %chg. 18.70% -69,395 65,672 -48,888 -93,311 -16,944 -17,244 114,101 3,959 8,729 15,460 37,524 -20,340 -15,327 -8,219 -5,003 -21,838 -22,765 -24,661 -24,048 -10,003 -10,090 1,267
as a %of sales 0.89% 34.39% 1,881 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Free Cashflow
yoy %chg. - - - - - - - - 120.48% 77.11% 142.72% - - - - - - - - - - -
qoq %chg.
-18.78% 15.78% -9.15% -14.45% -2.26% -1.74% 10.01% 4.06% 8.91% 14.99% 31.91% -17.30% -12.15% -5.75% -3.38% -14.52% -15.23% -14.27% -13.89% -5.75% -5.83% 0.63%
as a %of sales
48.40% 0.93%
-

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Figure 9: Balance Sheet

FY FY3/2019 FY3/2020 FY3/2021 FY3/2022 FY3/2023 FY3/2024 FY3/2025 FY3/2026 FY3/2027E FY3/2028E FY3/2029E FY3/2030E FY3/2031E FY3/2025 3Q FY3/2026 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents 113,492 175,151 126,884 185,592 302,419 443,583 390,656 295,681 308,575 382,211 502,627 564,242 194,393 758,743 425,295 374,233 358,431 390,656 374,228 325,476 340,725 295,681
Accounts Receivable 60,180 68,877 89,687 91,989 79,446 65,330 68,131 81,810 105,045 126,967 147,437 223,996 65,792 60,301 68,694 64,831 68,316 72,064 81,810 70,962
Inventories 48,769 45,279 57,023 74,566 79,194 65,318 67,175 70,962 85,490 101,509 112,886 143,430 161,344 68,054 69,201 73,136 68,131 67,175 67,552 68,446 73,426
Other Current Assets Total Current Assets 6,531 10,937 11,770 11,123 363,270 15,766 476,825 26,579 600,810 23,618 17,088 465,541 17,088 516,198 17,088 627,774 17,088 780,038 17,088 919,152 17,088 1,161,170 31,038 590,179 35,521 22,973 539,256 523,234 23,618 25,767 549,580 25,237 487,475 18,509 17,088 504,724 465,541
228,972 300,244 285,364 549,580 532,378
Tangible Fixed Assets 146,710 173,514 214,828 225,920 306,967 408,777 460,054 437,704 566,904 769,504 932,504 1,173,504 1,334,104 444,516 460,076 476,005 460,054 465,519 465,165 459,875 437,704
Investments and Other Assets 47,374 44,861 78,326 75,142 73,716 120,404 72,050 57,180 57,180 57,180 57,180 57,180 57,180 113,014 100,671 106,443 72,050 81,782 85,298 89,519 57,180
Total Investments 68,198 61,342 110,166 58,797 32,285 32,285 32,285 32,285 32,285 32,285 90,711 3,916 95,782 70,452 73,665 77,826 32,285 18,331
Deferred Tax Assets 39,142 2,915 34,461 4,463 3,488 64,638 3,951 5,533 4,253 7,159 18,331 18,331 18,331 18,331 18,331 18,331 102,303 4,342 4,125 58,797 7,159 5,271 5,240 5,316
Intangible Assets Other non current asset 4,162 1,155 4,486 1,451 5,392 1,248 5,448 1,105 5,179 4,590 4,349 4,418 2,146 4,418 2,146 4,418 2,146 4,418 2,146 4,418 2,146 4,418 2,146 4,754 4,404 4,666 1,615 1,640 1,870 1,745 532,104 4,349 4,269 4,617 1,790 4,529 4,418 1,848
Total Non Current Assets 194,084 218,375 293,154 301,062 1,662 380,683 1,395 529,181 1,745 532,104 494,884 624,084 826,684 989,684 1,230,684 1,391,284 557,530 560,747 582,448 547,301 1,776 550,463 2,146 549,394 494,884
Total Assets 423,056 664,332 857,508 1,129,991 1,081,684 960,425 1,140,282 1,454,458 1,769,722 2,149,836 2,552,454 1,147,709 1,100,003 1,105,682 1,081,684 1,079,679 1,037,938 1,054,118 960,425
Equity 518,619 578,518
Liabilities and Accounts Payable 39,562 45,555 45,717 51,150 40,431 43,875 44,143 53,180 63,145 70,222 89,223 100,366 44,223 42,354 48,936 36,237 38,761 38,442 45,710 44,143
Short-term debt 45,030 30,030 35,130 40,030 65,030 90,000 38,761 90,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 90,000 70,000 60,000 90,000 65,000 65,000 15,000 22,013
2,366 3,016 5,624 14,909 14,869 22,013 22,013 22,013 22,013 22,013 4,151 2,286 90,000 14,869 4,601 9,839 2,185
Accrued Taxes Advanced Payment 0 0 0 0 14,268 0 4,144 92,084 80,950 180,950 390,950 570,950 735,950 22,013 885,950 77,019 7,059 88,643 87,112 92,084 89,764 77,577 76,929 80,950
Other Non Current Financial Liabilities Total Current Liabilities 31,124 118,082 42,135 120,736 45,428 131,899 50,071 156,160 103,592 223,321 80,098 140,245 358,362 92,003 327,717 59,539 221,645 59,539 330,682 59,539 550,647 59,539 737,724 59,539 921,725 59,539 1,082,868 150,589 365,982 111,070 96,065 319,126 294,399 92,003 327,717 85,294 305,896 70,962 69,403 59,539 261,820 259,227 221,645
LT Debts 25,000 120,000 - 115,044 130,000 205,000 253,476 252,976 177,476 177,476 177,476 177,476 177,476 177,476 253,351 273,226 283,101 252,976 252,851 237,726 237,601 177,476 -
Operating Lease Liabilities 43 1,974 - 7,117 - 5,095 - 825 - 13,433 - 1,015 - 1,284 - 1,284 - 1,284 - 1,284 - 1,284 - 1,284 - - - - - 4,859 1,284
Deferred Tax Liabilities 1,644 827 1,078 578 573 751 800 633 633 633 633 633 633 10,991 817 7,745 9,130 756 860 - 1,015 2,749 3,621 633
Retirement Benefit Liabilities Other Non Current Financial Liabilities 671 1,517 1,771 2,183 2,173 1,975 1,975 1,975 1,849 1,876 800 1,878 808 855 932 1,958 1,975
Total Non Current Liabilities 981 1,478 1,975 1,975 1,975 2,013 1,793 1,763
28,669 123,949 124,756 137,444 208,581 269,833 1,878 256,669 181,368 181,368 181,368 181,368 181,368 181,368 267,172 283,576 294,967 256,669 258,201 243,965 245,350 181,368
Minority Interests Capital Stock 5,442 64,152 5,615 64,152 5,949 64,152 6,152 64,152 6,367 64,152 6,852 64,152 6,803 64,152 7,339 64,152 7,619 64,152 7,899 64,152 8,179 64,152 8,459 64,152 8,739 64,152 6,917 64,152 64,152 64,152 6,918 6,779 6,803 6,981 7,055 64,152 64,152 64,152 64,565 7,144 7,339 64,152 64,152 64,565 64,565
Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Treasury Shares 64,579 122,144 64,579 128,578 64,433 149,379 64,494 184,612 64,494 229,804 64,494 255,698 64,565 283,807 64,565 340,525 64,565 411,065 64,565 504,996 64,565 632,902 64,565 828,736 64,565 1,069,931 64,494 64,494 261,717 64,600 273,428 274,904 64,565 283,807 293,738 303,078 64,565 307,813 340,525
Other Equity -2,602 -2,575 -3,286 -3,264 54,582 -3,126 63,915 -2,983 113,583 -3,497 -3,452 84,283 -3,452 -3,452 84,283 -3,452 84,283 -3,452 -3,452 -2,873 -2,861 -3,500 91,170 -3,497 -3,453 -3,442 89,599 96,745 -3,448 -3,452 109,315 84,283
Shareholder's Equity 22,590 270,863 13,585 268,319 41,236 315,914 364,576 419,239 494,944 81,468 490,495 550,073 84,283 620,613 714,544 842,450 84,283 1,038,284 84,283 1,279,479 120,148 507,638 109,381 490,383 509,537 81,468 490,495 508,601 525,098 542,397 550,073
Total Liabilities and Equity 423,056 518,619 578,518 664,332 857,508 1,129,991 1,081,684 960,425 1,140,282 1,454,458 1,769,722 2,149,836 2,552,454 1,147,709 1,100,003 1,105,682 1,081,684 1,079,679 1,037,938 1,054,118 960,425
FY FY3/2019
FY3/2020 FY3/2021 FY3/2022 FY3/2023 FY3/2024 FY3/2025 FY3/2026 FY3/2027E FY3/2028E FY3/2029E FY3/2030E FY3/2031E FY3/2025 FY3/2026 4Q
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
JPYmn
Debt with interest 70,030 150,030 150,174 170,030 270,030 343,476 342,976 44,404 192,476 192,476 192,476 192,476 192,476 192,476 319,683 420,370 -4,925 431,869 430,213 57,636 435,060 432,615 44,404 58,387 380,303 379,530 273,426 38,805
Net Debt -43,462 -25,121 23,290 -44,908 -15,562 -80,200 -32,389 -93,731 -20,009 -130,175 -14,393 -22,255 64,851 201,215 260,799 228,514 364,184 331,899 287,398 -107,228 71,782 -33,075 -24,000 -12,065 54,827 -18,838 -22,255 -39,021 -54,540
Net Debt (Including Investment Securities) Consolidated Employees (Persons) Non-Consolidated Employees (Persons) -82,604 14,718 3,525 -59,582 13,019 3,537 13,161 3,504 12,958 3,549 12,744 3,669 11,375 3,829 11,168 3,920 -54,540 11,105 4,036 32,566 - - 168,930 - - - - - - - - - - - -14,393 - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Asset Composition Ratio Current Assets 54.12% 57.89% 49.33% 54.68% 55.61% 53.17% 50.81% 48.47% 45.27% 43.16% 44.08% 42.75% 45.49% 52.27% 51.42% 49.02% 38.73% 47.32% 41.82% 43.05% 50.81% 49.31% 42.53% 46.97% 44.82% 47.88% 48.47% 43.63% 45.57%
Tangible Fixed Assets Current Liabilities 34.68% 33.46% 23.28% 37.13% 22.80% 34.01% 23.51% 35.80% 26.04% 36.18% 31.71% 42.53% 30.30% 45.57% 23.08% 49.72% 52.91% 37.86% 52.69% 41.69% 54.59% 42.87% 31.89% 29.01% 26.63% 43.12% 30.30% 28.33% 25.23% 24.59% 23.08%
Shareholders' Equity 64.03% 51.74% 54.61% 54.88% 48.89% 47.60% 44.23% 44.58% 46.08% 45.35% 47.11% 50.59%
Efficiency Analysis 0.59 0.37 0.41 0.51 0.50 0.47 0.50 0.31 0.33 0.32 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47
Total Asset Turnover 27.91% 43.80% 45.35% 57.27% 29.00% 54.43% 49.13% 48.30% 42.42% 50.13% 753.07 1,098.40 1,133.88 1,007.06 1,011.78 51.46% 57.27% 51.46% 57.27% 51.46% 57.27% 51.46% 57.27% 51.46% 57.27% 51.46% 57.27% 51.46% 57.27%
0.68 0.63 0.65 0.55 0.33 1,092.56 0.48 1,177.96 985.67 925.48 781.71
Turnover Period (Months) Tangible Fixed Asset Turnover 538.79 1.95 580.60 1.85 619.02 1.67 565.44 1.82 665.16 1.57 978.97 1.04 0.85 895.44 0.93 717.39 1.06 733.11 0.97 784.48 0.88 723.31 0.94 0.91 401.59 0.83 0.83 441.30 442.05 0.76 0.84 0.85 0.84 0.89 1.05 409.22 348.29
Turnover Period (Months) Accounts Receivable Turnover 186.82 4.76 197.44 4.59 219.11 4.08 200.52 4.42 232.91 4.87 352.55 5.12 429.20 5.54 393.66 5.55 343.07 5.72 377.59 5.57 414.12 5.47 388.64 5.79 5.45 481.21 5.38 5.92 5.50 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54 430.96 433.28 433.20 5.79 5.86 5.89 5.88 6.11 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54 429.20 5.54

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Figure 10: Cash Flow Statement

FY FY3/2017 FY3/2018 FY3/2017 FY3/2018 FY3/2019 FY3/2020 FY3/2021 FY3/2022 FY3/2023 FY3/2024 FY3/2025 FY3/2026 FY3/2027E FY3/2028E FY3/2029E FY3/2030E FY3/2031E
JPY mn
Net Income -62,848 11,583 3,306 11,329 25,698 41,232 52,187 31,490 33,704 63,713 80,312 109,289 146,056 223,756 274,701
Minority Interest 230 270 267 207 220 331 226 259 346 449 280 280 280 280 280
Depreciation 33,147 24,566 25,136 24,222 35,413 52,715 54,914 46,032 54,205 66,236 80,800 97,400 107,000 119,000 129,400
Change in Working Capital 1,123 -4,421 -6,366 786 -32,392 -14,412 -2,804 31,436 -9,772 -12,084 -28,725 -27,976 -24,770 -58,500 -36,374
Change in Other Current Assets 4,351 817 -962 7,255 5,068 14,575 48,237 95,814 -22,570 -29,924 100,000 210,000 180,000 165,000 150,000
CAPEX -20,997 -22,409 -22,892 -57,076 -78,189 -60,615 -131,275 -146,583 -157,304 -64,277 -210,000 -300,000 -270,000 -360,000 -290,000
Change in Investments -5,046 -7,848 12,812 4,681 -33,737 3,560 3,296 -48,824 51,369 26,512 0 0 0 0 0
Change in Intangible assets 955 524 -473 -324 -906 -56 269 589 241 -69 0 0 0 0 0
Change in Other Fixed Assets 704 -708 -3,840 -1,564 6,941 -2,588 -6,002 14,323 -15,920 -11,374 0 0 0 0 0
FCF -48,381 2,374 6,988 -10,484 -71,884 34,742 19,048 24,536 -65,701 39,182 22,667 88,993 138,566 89,536 228,008
Change in Interest Bearing Debt -66 -56 25 80,000 144 19,856 100,000 73,446 -500 -150,500 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends -4,658 -4,890 -4,890 -4,891 -4,886 -5,584 -6,982 -5,588 -5,584 -6,981 -9,773 -15,357 -18,149 -27,922 -33,506
Treasury Stock -3 15,696 7 27 -711 22 138 143 -514 45 0 0 0 0 0
CF from Other Financial Activities -3,308 2,293 -8,758 -9,009 27,494 12,992 9,320 49,660 -32,055 2,801 0 0 0 0 0
CF -56,416 15,417 -6,628 55,643 -49,843 62,028 121,524 142,197 -104,354 -115,453 12,894 73,636 120,416 61,614 194,501
Cash and Cash Equivalents 104,181 117,760 113,492 175,151 126,884 185,592 302,419 443,583 390,656 295,681 308,575 382,211 502,627 564,242 758,743
Key financial index
ROE -21.53% 4.31% 1.20% 4.20% 8.80% 12.12% 13.32% 6.89% 6.84% 12.25% 13.72% 16.37% 18.76% 23.79% 23.70%
ROA -14.25% 2.75% 0.77% 2.41% 4.68% 6.64% 6.86% 3.17% 3.05% 6.24% 7.65% 8.42% 9.06% 11.42% 11.68%
Total Asset Turnover 0.604 0.713 0.677 0.629 0.590 0.646 0.549 0.373 0.334 0.408 0.509 0.498 0.465 0.505 0.485
Equity Ratio 63.22% 64.43% 64.03% 51.74% 54.61% 54.88% 48.89% 43.80% 45.35% 57.27% 54.43% 49.13% 47.60% 48.30% 50.13%
DuPont System
ROE -21.53% 4.31% 1.20% 4.20% 8.80% 12.12% 13.32% 6.89% 6.84% 12.25% 13.72% 16.37% 18.76% 23.79% 23.70%
Net Profit Margin -23.59% 3.86% 1.14% 3.83% 7.94% 10.28% 12.50% 8.50% 9.12% 15.31% 15.03% 16.92% 19.47% 22.63% 24.11%
Total Asset Turnover 60.43% 71.34% 67.74% 62.87% 58.96% 64.55% 54.87% 37.28% 33.41% 40.76% 50.88% 49.79% 46.53% 50.46% 48.47%
Financial Leverage Ratio 1.58 1.55 1.56 1.93 1.83 1.82 2.05 2.28 2.21 1.75 1.84 2.04 2.10 2.07 1.99

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

ROIC Valuation

ROIC Valuation
FY FY3/2016 FY3/2017 FY3/2018 FY3/2019 FY3/2020 FY3/2021 FY3/2022 FY3/2023 FY3/2024 FY3/2025 FY3/2026 FY3/2027E FY3/2028E FY3/2029E FY3/2030E FY3/2031E
JPY mn
NOPAT 15,405 8,604 11,786 4,958 14,018 32,108 50,809 54,901 34,180 34,999 46,697 83,983 112,890 149,657 227,096 278,041
yoy %chg. - -44.15% 37.00% -57.94% 182.76% 129.06% 58.24% 8.05% -37.74% 2.40% 33.42% 79.85% 34.42% 32.57% 51.74% 22.43%
Invested Capital 402,441 332,668 359,036 345,394 421,145 475,666 541,902 690,928 854,452 834,130 732,841 803,661 897,872 1,026,058 1,222,172 1,463,647
yoy %chg. - -17.34% 7.93% -3.80% 21.93% 12.95% 13.92% 27.50% 23.67% -2.38% -12.14% 9.66% 11.72% 14.28% 19.11% 19.76%
ROIC 3.83% 2.34% 3.41% 1.41% 3.66% 7.16% 9.99% 8.91% 4.42% 4.15% 5.96% 10.93% 13.27% 15.56% 20.20% 20.70%
WACC 8.00% 7.11% 7.41% 7.08% 6.66% 7.09% 4.81% 5.76% 8.34% 6.49% 11.65% 5.90% 5.90% 5.90% 5.90% 5.90%
ROIC-WACC -4.18% -4.77% -4.01% -5.68% -3.00% 0.08% 5.18% 3.15% -3.92% -2.35% -5.69% 5.04% 7.37% 9.66% 14.31% 14.81%
ROIC/WACC 0.48 0.33 0.46 0.20 0.55 1.01 2.08 1.55 0.53 0.64 0.51 1.85 2.25 2.64 3.43 3.51
EV/IC 0.41 0.35 0.43 0.42 0.59 1.04 1.39 0.82 1.12 0.89 1.15 1.16 1.19 1.10 1.01 0.81
EV 165,811 117,326 153,855 144,332 246,870 493,595 753,626 565,241 960,706 743,545 845,796 932,902 1,069,266 1,128,849 1,232,235 1,187,734
MV 242,708 195,552 253,564 226,936 306,452 538,503 833,826 658,972 1,090,881 757,938 900,336 900,336 900,336 900,336 900,336 900,336
Theoretical Enterprise Value 192,440 109,500 165,026 68,630 231,427 480,738 1,125,944 1,068,419 453,126 532,711 374,891 1,490,139 2,020,800 2,707,528 4,187,895 5,139,999
ΔTheoretical Enterprise Value - -82,940 55,525 -96,395 162,797 249,311 645,206 -57,525 -615,293 79,585 -157,820 1,115,248 530,660 686,728 1,480,367 952,103
ΔIC - -69,773 26,368 -13,642 75,751 54,521 66,236 149,026 163,524 -20,322 -101,289 70,820 94,212 128,186 196,114 241,475
ΔEVA/WACC - -13,167 29,157 -82,753 87,046 194,790 578,970 -206,551 -778,817 99,907 -56,531 1,044,428 436,449 558,542 1,284,253 710,629
Total - -82,940 55,525 -96,395 162,797 249,311 645,206 -57,525 -615,293 79,585 -157,820 1,115,248 530,660 686,728 1,480,367 952,103
Theoretical Market Capitalization 230,277 143,620 212,781 112,092 256,548 457,448 1,141,506 1,100,808 473,135 488,307 397,146 1,425,288 1,819,584 2,446,729 3,823,711 4,820,315
Valuation per share (JPY) 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 5,000 6,200 8,300 12,900 16,300
yoy %chg. - 0.00% 0.00% -100.00% #DIV/0! 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% -50.00% 0.00% -50.00% 400.00% -72.87% 24.00% 33.87% 55.42% 26.36%
Deviation from Actual Stock Price 9.66% 36.11% 10.20% -100.00% -8.80% 3.69% 33.94% 69.54% -45.78% -22.00% -67.17% -66.36% -54.96% -30.01% -11.56%
Implied P/E (x) 30.58 -2.29 18.37 33.91 22.65 17.80 27.68 21.09 15.02 14.49 6.23 17.75 16.65 16.75 17.09 17.55
Implied EV/EBITDA (x) 2.89 2.72 4.00 1.95 5.27 6.49 9.11 8.39 4.84 5.23 2.92 7.59 7.95 8.56 9.54 9.85
Implied PBR (x) 0.70 0.56 0.76 0.41 0.96 1.45 3.13 2.63 0.96 1.00 0.72 2.30 2.55 2.90 3.68 3.77

Source: Company report, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Note: Market capitalization as of July 13. Implied P/E is on a fully diluted basis.

Risks to Rating and Price Target Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

  • Better-than-expected profitability improvement for FC-BGA substrates for major CPU makers
  • Yen depreciation
  • Further market share growth for AI GPU substrates, volume upside for ASIC substrates

Downside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Ibiden (4062) (Overweight; Price Target: ¥28,500)

Investment Thesis

In addition to the company's dominant market share in substrates for GPUs for AI servers, we also expect the company to see major earnings growth in EMIB substrates for ASICs and in standard ABF substrates　from growing demand for AI servers. We believe Ibiden is wellpositioned to maximize benefits from the shift to larger and higher multi-layered FC-BGA substrates for AI server-use GPUs because of its strong technological abilities.

Valuation

Our December 2027 price target of ¥28,500 is based on (1) the ¥16,300 value derived from a zero-growth ROIC model (EV/IC = ROIC/WACC) using our FY2030 estimates (Rf = 2.57%, Rp = 5.15%, beta = 1.30, WACC = 5.9%) plus (2) Ibiden's 75% premium to the sector-average P/E (from August 2025 to July 2026, 12-month forward Bloomberg consensus basis), reflecting the rise in Ibiden's share price since August 2025 on expectations for earnings growth for AI server applications. Our price target is equivalent to a P/E of 31x our FY2030 EPS estimate.

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

  • Inventory adjustments for AI servers, peaking-out of AI investment cycle
  • Market share decline for BGA substrates for AI GPUs
  • Procurement difficulties for core materials
  • Roadmap delays in logic semiconductors, AI servers, etc.

Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 July 2026

Ibiden (4062): Summary of Financials

Income Statement 2026/3A 2027/3E 2028/3E 2029/3E Cash Flow Statement 2026/3A 2027/3E 2028/3E 2029/3E
Revenue 416,201.0 534,406.0 645,931.0 750,071.0 Cash flow from operating activities 77,016 232,667 388,993 408,566
COGS (284,532) (342,784) (407,014) (452,630) o/w Depreciation & amortization 66,236 80,800 97,400 107,000
Gross profit 131,669 191,622 238,917 297,441 o/w Changes in working capital (12,084) (28,725) (27,976) (24,770)
SG&A (69,642) (76,000) (82,000) (88,000)
EBITDA 128,263 196,422 254,317 316,441 Cash flow from investing activities (37,834) (210,000) (300,000) (270,000)
D&A (66,236) (80,800) (97,400) (107,000) o/w Capital expenditure (64,277) (210,000) (300,000) (270,000)
EBIT 62,027.0 115,621.8 156,916.8 209,440.8 as % of sales 15.4% 39.3% 46.4% 36.0%
Net Interest 2,402 2,410 2,410 2,410
PBT 91,092 115,132 156,527 209,051 Cash flow from financing activities (154,635) (9,773) (15,357) (18,149)
Tax (26,929) (34,540) (46,958) (62,715) o/w Dividends paid (6,981) (9,773) (15,357) (18,149)
Minority Interest (449) (280) (280) (280) o/w Shares issued/(repurchased) 0 0 0 0
Net Income 63,713 80,312 109,289 146,056 o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (150,500) 0 0 0
Reported EPS 215.6 271.7 369.7 494.1 Net change in cash (115,453) 12,894 73,636 120,416
DPS 25.00 35.00 55.00 65.00 Adj. Free cash flow to firm 11,047 20,980 87,306 136,879
Payout ratio 11.6% 12.9% 14.9% 13.2% y/y Growth -109.2% 89.9% 316.1% 56.8%
Shares outstanding 279 279 279 279
Balance Sheet 2026/3A 2027/3E 2028/3E 2029/3E Ratio Analysis 2026/3A 2027/3E 2028/3E 2029/3E
Cash and cash equivalents 295,681.0 308,575.1 382,210.8 502,627.3 Gross margin 31.6% 35.9% 37.0% 39.7%
Accounts receivable 81,810 105,045 126,967 147,437 EBITDA margin 30.8% 36.8% 39.4% 42.2%
Inventories 70,962 85,490 101,509 112,886 EBIT margin 14.9% 21.6% 24.3% 27.9%
Other current assets 169,860 207,623 245,564 277,410 Net profit margin 15.3% 15.0% 16.9% 19.5%
Current assets 465,541 516,198 627,774 780,038
PP&E 437,704 566,904 769,504 932,504 ROE 12.2% 13.7% 16.4% 18.8%
LT investments - - - - ROA 6.2% 7.6% 8.4% 9.1%
Other non current assets 57,180 57,180 57,180 57,180 ROCE 5.5% 10.4% 12.8% 15.1%
Total assets 960,425 1,140,282 1,454,458 1,769,722 SG&A/Sales 16.7% 14.2% 12.7% 11.7%
Net debt/Equity NM NM NM NM
Short term borrowings Payables 15,000 44,143 15,000 53,180 15,000 63,145 15,000 70,222 Net debt/EBITDA NM NM NM NM
Other short term liabilities 162,502 262,502 472,502 652,502 Sales/Assets (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Current liabilities 221,645 330,682 550,647 737,724 Assets/Equity (x) 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.1
Long-term debt 177,476 177,476 177,476 177,476 Interest cover (x) NM NM NM NM
Other long term liabilities 179,451 179,451 179,451 179,451 Operating leverage 239.0% 304.2% 171.1% 207.6%
Total liabilities 403,013 512,050 732,015 919,092 Tax rate 29.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Shareholders' equity 550,073.0 620,612.5 714,544.1 842,450.4 Revenue y/y Growth 12.7% 28.4% 20.9% 16.1%
Minority interests 7,339 7,619 7,899 8,179 EBITDA y/y Growth 26.0% 53.1% 29.5% 24.4%
Total liabilities & equity 960,425 1,140,282 1,454,458 1,769,722 EPS y/y growth 89.0% 26.1% 36.1% 33.6%
BVPS 1970.0 2222.7 2559.1 3017.1 Valuation 2026/3A 2027/3E 2028/3E 2029/3E
P/E (x) 89.7 71.2 52.3 39.1
y/y Growth 12.1% 12.8% 15.1% 17.9% P/BV (x) 9.8 8.7 7.6 6.4
Net debt/(cash) (103,205) (116,099) (189,735) (310,151) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield 6.6 0.1% 4.7 0.2% 4.2 0.3% 3.6 0.3%

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Note: ¥ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Mar. o/w - out of which

request.

Ibiden (4062) (4062.T, 4062 JP) Price Chart

J.P. Morgan

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Adam Chen report

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Akinori Kanemoto AC (81-3) 6736 8628 akinori.kanemoto@jpmorgan.com

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All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.

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