PDF 原檔：報告_GS_聯發科2454_20261031_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-02）
ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源。本報告圖皆為財務／估值／評等紀錄／營收結構圖，無架構、製程或產品圖，公司頁不嵌。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_聯發科2454_20261031_001.png |
29KB | 真資料圖 | MediaTek 各產品營收占比堆疊圖（2010-2028E，圖例 ODD／TV／IoT-Analog／Connectivity／Feature phone／Smartphone／Tablet／ASIC／Automotive）：Smartphone 為 2020 年代主體，2026E 起 ASIC（淺藍）急速擴大，2027E 目視約占五至六成、2028E 約七成（目視估計）；營收結構圖 |
報告_GS_聯發科2454_20261031_002.png |
17KB | 真資料圖 | MediaTek ASIC 營收長條圖（NT$mn，2023-2028E）：2023-2025 近乎零、2026E 約 11 萬、2027E 約 70 萬、2028E 約 177 萬；數值為目視讀圖估計；ASIC 營收預估圖 |
報告_GS_聯發科2454_20261031_003.png |
35KB | 真資料圖 | MediaTek 前瞻本益比通道圖（2012-07 至 2026-07）：股價折線與 20x／30x／40x／50x／60x 倍數帶；估值圖 |
報告_GS_聯發科2454_20261031_004.png |
32KB | 真資料圖 | MediaTek 前瞻股價淨值比通道圖（2012-07 至 2026-07）：股價折線與 5x／8x／11x／14x／17x 倍數帶；估值圖 |
報告_GS_聯發科2454_20261031_005.png |
69KB | 真資料圖 | 高盛對 MediaTek（2454.TW）評等與目標價歷史圖（2023-2026）：目標價節點標示 915／1115／1350／1300／1460／1480／1490／1700／1780／1800／1620／1400／2200／2454／5000／6800／7000；下方色帶 B（Buy）為主、中段有 N（Neutral）標示段（標註 Oct 31、Feb 4）；右軸為加權指數；評等／目標價沿革圖，非架構圖 |
原始內容
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MediaTek (2454.TW): AI ASIC ramp up with stronger momentum; 4Q26 guidance in line; TP up to NT$7,100, Buy
MediaTek's 4Q26 guidance was overall in line at NT$210.1bn~ NT$221.8bn (+25%~32% QoQ, vs. our previous estimate at NT$221.8bn), supported by the ramp up of AI accelerators, which partially offsets the weak seasonality of consumer electronics. The company's 3Q26 GM was in line with our estimate at 46.3%, and Opex ratio was better-than-expected, resulting in OP/ NI 11%/ 18% higher than our estimates. Management now expects its AI ASIC revenues to exceed US$2.5bn in 2026E (vs. previously at US$2.0bn) and expects its 2027E AI ASIC market share at 20%, implying US$16bn of AI ASIC revenues in 2027 (vs. US$12bn~US$16bn previously). Mgmt. notes the first AI ASIC project has started shipment in Sep 2026, and the next-Gen AI ASIC project is on track for high volume production in 1Q28. We remain constructive on increasing customer demand given its favorable cost of ownership, deeper cooperation with clients to accumulate experience, and an expanding client base. Maintain Buy with TP raised to NT$7,100 (implied 38x 2027E PE vs. 156% NI YoY in 2027-28E on avg).
AI ASIC continuous ramp up: With gradual revenue contribution from its first AI ASIC project, management notes the company's next-gen AI ASIC project also progresses on track, and the company is also expanding to new clients on AI ASIC products, supported by its strong capability demonstrated by the first project. For the second project, mgmt. notes a couple of dies have already been taped out, which is on track for high volume production in early 2026. We see the company's technology advantages in SerDes IP and advanced packaging, with its 448G SerDes IP in measurement and verification with key clients.
Earnings revision: We factor in MediaTek's 3Q26 results and revise up 2027/ 28E earnings by 1%/ 1%. We revise up revenues by 1% in 2026-28E mainly on higher revenues of AI ASIC projects, with ongoing projects progressing on track. We revise up GM by 0.1ppts in 2026-28E to reflect product mix upgrade.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 1: Earnings revision
| Rmb mn | 2026E - New | 2026E - Old | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - New | 2028E - Old | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 691,189 | 682,551 | 1% | 1,351,100 | 1,343,096 | 1% | 2,517,299 | 2,483,424 | 1% |
| GP | 315,717 | 311,351 | 1% | 589,305 | 584,297 | 1% | 1,112,202 | 1,095,740 | 2% |
| OP | 108,541 | 106,858 | 2% | 345,161 | 336,314 | 3% | 809,933 | 794,582 | 2% |
| Net income | 105,854 | 106,285 | 0% | 297,437 | 295,094 | 1% | 688,317 | 680,493 | 1% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 45.7% | 45.6% | 43.6% | 43.5% | 44.2% | 44.1% | |||
| OPM | 15.7% | 15.7% | 25.5% | 25.0% | 32.2% | 32.0% | |||
| NM | 15.3% | 15.6% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 27.3% | 27.4% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: We expect MediaTek Oct revenues to grow 28% YoY/ 20% MoM to NT$66bn Mediatek monthly/ quarterly revenues
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$bn) | 48,475 | 64,183 | 55,399 | 66,479 | 75,787 | 79,532 | 152,183 | 168,058 | 221,798 |
| YoY | 12% | 44% | 2% | 28% | 62% | 55% | 1% | 18% | 48% |
| MoM / QoQ | -16% | 32% | -14% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 10% | 32% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) Act. Vs. GS. |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Mediatek 3Q26 result snapshot
| NT$ m | 3Q25 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act/GS | Cons. | Act/Cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 142,097 | 152,183 | 168,058 | 10% | 18% | 159,419 | 5% | 161,798 | 4% |
| GP | 66,112 | 70,308 | 77,849 | 11% | 18% | 73,881 | 5% | 74,799 | 4% |
| OP | 22,188 | 22,868 | 27,103 | 19% | 22% | 24,346 | 11% | 25,329 | 7% |
| Net income | 25,221 | 24,335 | 27,883 | 15% | 11% | 23,648 | 18% | 25,480 | 9% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 46.5% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 46.3% | 46.2% | ||||
| OPM | 15.6% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 15.7% | ||||
| NM | 17.7% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 15.7% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 4: MediaTek's revenue mix by segment
Exhibit 5: MediaTek's AI ASIC business revenue
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 6: Mediatek P&L Summary
| 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L (NT$mn) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 149,151 | 152,183 | 168,058 | 221,798 | 250,013 | 314,111 | 375,155 | 411,821 | 691,189 | 1,351,100 | 2,517,299 |
| Gross profit | 69,055 | 70,308 | 77,849 | 98,505 | 110,394 | 136,939 | 163,140 | 178,832 | 315,717 | 589,305 | 1,112,202 |
| Operating profit | 22,891 | 22,868 | 27,103 | 35,679 | 48,431 | 75,828 | 102,855 | 118,047 | 108,541 | 345,161 | 809,933 |
| Net income | 24,154 | 24,335 | 27,883 | 31,980 | 42,743 | 65,505 | 88,204 | 100,985 | 105,854 | 297,437 | 688,317 |
| EPS (NT$) | 15.17 | 15.28 | 17.50 | 20.08 | 26.84 | 41.13 | 55.38 | 63.41 | 66.46 | 186.75 | 432.17 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 46.3% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 44.4% | 44.2% | 43.6% | 43.5% | 43.4% | 45.7% | 43.6% | 44.2% |
| Operating profit margin | 15.3% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 19.4% | 24.1% | 27.4% | 28.7% | 15.7% | 25.5% | 32.2% |
| Net margin | 16.2% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 17.1% | 20.9% | 23.5% | 24.5% | 15.3% | 22.0% | 27.3% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | -2.7% | 1.2% | 18.3% | 47.7% | 67.6% | 106.4% | 123.2% | 85.7% | 16.0% | 95.5% | 86.3% |
| Gross profit | -6.4% | -4.8% | 17.8% | 42.2% | 59.9% | 94.8% | 109.6% | 81.5% | 11.5% | 86.7% | 88.7% |
| Operating profit | -23.8% | -22.2% | 22.2% | 63.3% | 111.6% | 231.6% | 279.5% | 230.9% | 4.9% | 218.0% | 134.7% |
| Net income | -17.6% | -12.6% | 10.6% | 39.5% | 77.0% | 169.2% | 216.3% | 215.8% | 0.5% | 181.0% | 131.4% |
| EPS | -17.7% | -12.7% | 10.5% | 39.4% | 76.9% | 169.2% | 216.5% | 215.8% | 0.4% | 181.0% | 131.4% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | -0.7% | 2.0% | 10.4% | 32.0% | 12.7% | 25.6% | 19.4% | 9.8% | |||
| Gross profit | -0.3% | 1.8% | 10.7% | 26.5% | 12.1% | 24.0% | 19.1% | 9.6% | |||
| Operating profit | 4.8% | -0.1% | 18.5% | 31.6% | 35.7% | 56.6% | 35.6% | 14.8% | |||
| Net income | 5.4% | 0.7% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 33.7% | 53.3% | 34.7% | 14.5% | |||
| EPS | 5.3% | 0.7% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 33.7% | 53.3% | 34.7% | 14.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We increase our 12m TP to NT$7,100 from NT$7,000 previously, following our upward earnings revisions. Our TP is based on a target P/E multiple of 25x (unchanged; +1.8 stdv above 5 yr avg. fwd P/E) applied to our FY2H27E-1H28E EPS (unchanged). We reiterate our Buy rating on MediaTek.
Exhibit 7: MediaTek Forward P/E
Exhibit 8: MediaTek Forward P/B
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Price Target Risks and Methodology - MediaTek (2454.TW)
Valuation: Our 12m TP of NT$7,100 is based on a target P/E multiple of 25x (1.8 stdv above its 5-year trading average) applied to our 2H27E-1H28E EPS.
Key risks to our views: (1) Weaker-than-expected end demand especially with smartphones, (2) Higher foundry cost impacting its margin outlook, (3) Intensifying competition that would result in reduced profitability, and (4) Slower ramp in ASIC would result in changes in operating leverage e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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2454.TW
12m Price Target: NT$7,100.00
Price: NT$3,915.00
Upside: 81.4%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market cap: NT$6.2tr / $191.0bn Enterprise value: NT$6.1tr / $185.8bn 3m ADTV: NT$37.1bn / $1.2bn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 595,965.7 | 691,189.1 | 1,351,099.7 | 2,517,299.0 |
| Market cap: NT$6.2tr / $191.0bn Enterprise value: NT$6.1tr / $185.8bn 3m ADTV: NT$37.1bn / $1.2bn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | 595,965.7 | 682,551.7 | 1,343,097.3 | 2,483,426.5 | |
| Market cap: NT$6.2tr / $191.0bn Enterprise value: NT$6.1tr / $185.8bn 3m ADTV: NT$37.1bn / $1.2bn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 126,444.1 | 135,255.0 | 371,513.3 | 834,724.3 |
| Market cap: NT$6.2tr / $191.0bn Enterprise value: NT$6.1tr / $185.8bn 3m ADTV: NT$37.1bn / $1.2bn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EPS (NT$) New | 66.17 | 66.46 | 186.75 | 432.17 |
| Market cap: NT$6.2tr / $191.0bn Enterprise value: NT$6.1tr / $185.8bn 3m ADTV: NT$37.1bn / $1.2bn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | EPS (NT$) Old | 66.17 | 66.73 | 185.27 | 427.25 |
| Market cap: NT$6.2tr / $191.0bn Enterprise value: NT$6.1tr / $185.8bn 3m ADTV: NT$37.1bn / $1.2bn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No | P/E (X) | 20.7 | 58.9 | 21.0 | 9.1 |
| P/B (X) | 5.5 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 5.5 | |
| Dividend yield (%) | 5.5 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 9.3 | |
| CROCI (%) | 54.0 | 32.8 | 71.9 | 146.2 | |
| 9/26 | 12/26E | 3/27E | 6/27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | 17.51 | 20.08 | 26.84 | 41.13 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 30 Oct 2026 close.
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