PDF 原檔：報告_GS_欣興3037_20260729_original.pdf
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原始內容
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
Unimicron Technology (3037.TW)
Product mix improvement speed to accelerate from 2H26, with sustainable demand outlook in LT
3037.TW
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$1,220.00
Pri c e:
NT$688.00
Upside:
77.3%
We joined Unimicron's 2Q26 result meeting today (July 29th).
Key takeaways include:
- (1) Unimicron believes it has a high pricing power on ABF substrates, especially for those high-end products, and believes the GM should reach 50-60% in the mid to long term, but needs to continue to increase its moat and capability on R&D/mass production and build its owned supply chain.
- (2) Unimicron announced the YM3 plant capacity expansion plan, and mentioned the new capacity has been fully booked by high-end customers. Unimicron also revised up its CAPEX in 2026E to be NT$53.7bn from NT$34bn previously (58% upward revision and now implying 110% YoY) and further increase its equipment budget by NT$17.6bn.
- (3) For AI exposure, the company mentioned 60% of its ABF substrate and PCB revenue were contributed by AI related demand in 1H26, and it expects the number to expand to 70%+ for ABF substrate and 65-70% for PCB products in 2H26.
- (4) For EMIB-T substrates, the company mentioned the mass volume shipment could start from 2027, and it targets to reach 50% yield rate for the products, which should be good enough to deliver a better than company's average GM, as customers continue to encourage suppliers to produce the EMIB-T substrates by raising the product pricing to protect low yield rate suppliers.
- (5) For EMIB-T substrate, the substrate price will be much higher than CoWoS substrates if we exclude the interposer used in the packaging technology; moreover, theoretically, CoWoS substrate BOM cost should be much higher than EMIB-T substrate (assuming similar yield rate), making Unimicron focus more on EMIB-T technology.
- (6) For BT substrates, the company will continue to transfer capacity
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
NEUTRAL
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn
Enterprise value: NT$989.6bn / $30.5bn
3m ADTV: NT$25.7bn / $808.5mn
Taiwan
Taiwan Electronic Components
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue(NT$mn) New | 131,240.9 | 191,248.1 | 302,344.2 | 427,253.6 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 131,240.9 | 188,516.3 | 299,173.8 | 424,900.4 |
| EBITD A (NT$ mn) | 25,446.9 | 51,038.6 | 103,609.1 | 162,044.6 |
| EPS(NT$) New | 4.38 | 22.98 | 43.68 | 71.88 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 4.38 | 16.58 | 40.33 | 66.82 |
| P/E (X) | 30.8 | 29.9 | 15.8 | 9.6 |
| P/B (X) | 2.3 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 4.2 |
| CROCI (%) | 8.6 | 22.0 | 28.5 | 36.5 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 8.45 | 4.68 | 6.57 | 7.96 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
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Unimicron Technology (3037.TW)
Rating since Apr 29, 2025
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 30.8 | 29.9 | 1 5.8 | 9.6 |
| P/B (X) | 2.3 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| FCF y i eld (%) | (5.0) | 0. 1 | 2.0 | 4.8 |
| EV/EBITD A R(X) | 7.5 | 20.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITD A (excl. leases) (X) | 7.5 | 20.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 |
| CROCI (%) | 8.6 | 22.0 | 28.5 | 36.5 |
| ROE (%) | 6.9 | 32.0 | 46.9 | 57. 1 |
| Net debt/equ i ty (%) | ( 1 8.7) | ( 1 9.0) | (22.0) | (28.7) |
| Net debt/equ i ty (excl. leases) (%) | ( 1 8.7) | ( 1 9.0) | (22.0) | (28.7) |
| Inte r est c ov e r (X) | 7. 1 | 29.5 | 78.3 | 1 32.4 |
| Days i n v ent or y o utst , sales | 45.4 | 30.0 | 1 9.5 | 1 8.3 |
| Rece iv able days | 75. 1 | 63.9 | 58.8 | 6 1 .5 |
| Days p ayable o utstand i n g | 52.7 | 50.0 | 47.6 | 48.7 |
| DuP o nt ROE (%) | 6.2 | 26.0 | 35.8 | 42.6 |
| Tu r n ov e r (X) | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| L e v e r a g e (X) | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1 .8 |
| Gro ss cas h i n v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 229 , 73 1 .8 | 272 , 622.6 | 324 , 3 1 0.3 | 382 , 770.9 |
| Av e r a g e ca pi tal e mp l o yed (NT $ ) | 85 , 964.8 | 99 , 058.2 | 1 28 , 033.2 | 1 65 , 686.9 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 59. 1 5 | 78.67 | 1 06.3 1 | 1 47.40 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 13.8 | 45.7 | 58.1 | 41.3 |
| E BITDA growth | 13.9 | 100. 6 | 103 | 5 6 .4 |
| E PS growth | 31.1 | 424. 6 | 90 | 6 4. 6 |
| DPS growth | 33.3 | 359.7 | 90 | 6 4. 6 |
| E BIT margin | 5.1 | 1 6 .9 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| E BITDA margin | 19.4 | 2 6 .7 | 34.3 | 37.9 |
| Net income margin | 5.1 | 18. 6 | 22 | 2 6 .1 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
3m
(14.3)%
(15.9)%
6m
99.7%
1
2m
395.3%
6
2
.3%
187.0%
Source: FactSet. Price as of 29 Jul 2026 close.
Absolute
Rel. to the Taiwan SE Weighted Index
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 131,240.9 | 191,248.1 | 302,344.2 | 427,253.6 |
| Cost of goods sold | (112,948.6) | (142,070.1) | (194,629.1) | (252,131.6) |
| SG&A | (6,619.2) | (9,848.8) | (11,727.8) | (15,571.0) |
| R&D | (4,998.7) | (7,063.3) | (10,234.1) | (14,491.5) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| E BITDA | 25 ,44 6 .9 | 51 ,03 8 . 6 | 1 03, 6 09. 1 | 162 ,044. 6 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (18,772.5) | (18,772.5) | (17,855.9) | (16,985.1) |
| E BIT | 6 , 67 4.4 | 3 2 , 266 .0 | 85 , 75 3. 2 | 1 4 5 ,0 5 9. 6 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | 349.9 | 518.2 | 695.6 | 1,133.1 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | 8.2 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 |
| Pre-tax pro fi t | 8 , 827 .3 | 44, 7 3 2 .9 | 85 , 75 3. 2 | 1 4 5 ,0 5 9. 6 |
| Provision for taxes | (1,276.8) | (7,944.1) | (18,061.6) | (32,297.4) |
| Minority interest | (877.3) -- | (1,165.2) -- | (1,200.0) -- | (1,200.0) |
| Preferred dividends N et inc . ( pre-ex c ept i o n a ls) | 6 , 67 3. 1 | 3 5 , 62 3. 5 | 66 ,49 1 . 6 | -- 111 , 562 . 2 |
| Post-tax exceptionals | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . ( po s t-ex c ept i | 6 , 67 3. 1 | 3 5 , 62 3. 5 | 66 ,49 1 . 6 | 111 , 562 . 2 |
| o n a ls) E P S(b a sic , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4.3 8 | 22 .9 8 | 43. 68 | 71 . 88 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4.3 8 | 22 .9 8 | 43. 68 | 71 . 88 |
| E P S(b a sic , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4.3 8 | 22 .9 8 | 43. 68 | 71 . 88 |
| E P S(dilu te d , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4.3 8 | 22 .9 8 | 43. 68 | 71 . 88 |
| DPS (NT$) | 2.00 | 9.19 | 17.47 | 28.75 |
| Div. payout ratio (%) | ||||
| 45.7 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | ______ | |||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents a ble | 54, 8 71. 8 | 60,906.3 | 75,7 8 3.0 | 110,05 8 .3 |
| Accounts receiv | 29,240.0 | 37,725.7 | 59,640.5 | 8 4,2 8 0.2 24,177.0 |
| Inventory | 17, 8 01. 8 | 13,623.2 | 1 8 ,663.1 | |
| Other current | 3,3 8 4.0 | 3,3 8 4.0 | 3,3 8 4.0 | 3,3 8 4.0 |
| a ssets Total current assets | 1 0 5 , 2 9 7 . 6 | 115 , 6 39. 2 | 157 ,4 7 0. 6 | 221 , 8 99. 5 |
| Net PP&E | 125, 8 65.7 | 161,232.9 | 1 88 , 8 16.6 | 227,271.2 |
| Net int a ngibles Tot a l | 1,460.2 | 1,020.6 | 5 8 0.9 | 141.3 |
| investments | 9,910.9 | 9,910.9 | 9,910.9 | 9,910.9 |
| Other long-term a ssets | 13,257.2 | 13,257.2 | 13,257.2 | 13,257.2 |
| Total assets | 255 , 7 9 1 . 6 | 30 1 ,0 6 0. 6 | 3 7 0,03 6 . 1 | 4 72 ,4 8 0.0 |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 17,494.5 | 21,407. 8 | 29,327.7 | 37,992.4 |
| Short-term debt Short-term le a se li a bilities | 10, 8 44.6 -- | 10, 8 44.6 -- | 10, 8 44.6 -- | 10, 8 44.6 -- |
| Other current li a bilities | 47,115.5 | 5 8 ,31 8 .3 | 70,665.5 | 88 ,693. 8 |
| Total current liabilities | 75 ,4 5 4. 6 | 90, 57 0. 8 | 11 0, 8 3 7 . 8 | 1 3 7 , 5 30. 8 |
| Long-term debt | 24,019.1 | 24,019.1 | 24,019.1 | 24,019.1 |
| Long-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- 49,310. 8 |
| Other long-term li a bilities liabilities | 49,310. 8 | 49,310. 8 7 3,330.0 | 49,310. 8 7 3,330.0 | 7 3,330.0 |
| Total long-term Total liabilities | 7 3,330.0 | 16 3,900. 7 | 18 4, 167 . 8 | 21 0, 86 0. 8 |
| Preferred sh a res | 1 4 8 , 78 4. 5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Tot a l commonequity | -- | 121,943.4 | 161, 8 3 8 .4 | 22 8 ,775.7 |
| Minority interest | 100,569.3 6 ,43 7 . 8 | 15 , 216 . 5 | 2 4,030.0 | 3 2 , 8 43. 5 |
| Total liabilities &equity | 255 , 7 9 1 . 6 | 30 1 ,0 6 0. 6 | 3 7 0,03 6 . 1 | 4 72 ,4 8 0.0 |
| Net debt, a djusted | (40,016.1) | (52,0 8 5.1) | ( 8 1, 8 3 8 .4) | (150,3 8 9.0) |
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | __________ | |||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
| Net income | 6,673.1 | 35,623.5 | 66,491.6 | 111,562.2 |
| D&Aadd-back | 18,772.5 | 18,772.5 | 17,855.9 | 16,985.1 |
| Minority interest add-back | 877.3 | 1,165.2 | 1,200.0 | 1,200.0 |
| Net (inc)/dec w orking capital | (4,449.1) | (393.7) | (19,034.9) | (21,488.9) |
| Other operating cash flo w | (6,906.9) | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 |
| Cash flow fro m operations | 1 4, 967 . 1 | 55 , 167 . 6 | 66 , 512 . 6 | 1 0 8 , 258 .4 |
| Capital expenditures | (25,617.2) | (53,700.0) | (45,000.0) | (55,000.0) |
| Acquisitions | (80.5) | -- | -- | -- |
| Divestitures | 1,540.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Others Cash flow | 1,139.8 ( 2 3,0 17 . 6 ) | -- ( 5 3, 7 00.0) | -- (4 5 ,000.0) | -- ( 55 ,000.0) |
| fro m investing | ||||
| Repayment of lease liabilities Dividends paid(common& pref) | -- (2,294.6) | -- (3,046.6) | -- (14,249.4) | -- (26,596.6) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt | 11,604.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Other financing cash flo w s | 9,859.1 | 7,613.5 | 7,613.5 | 7,613.5 |
| Cash flow fro m financing | 19 , 169 .0 | 4, 567 .0 | ( 6 , 6 3 5 . 9 ) | ( 18 , 98 3. 1 ) |
| Total cash flow Free cash flo w | 11 , 118 . 5 (10,650.1) | 6 ,034. 5 1,467.6 | 1 4, 876 . 7 21,512.6 | 34, 275 .3 53,258.4 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
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from BT substrate to high-end large body size ABF substrates, considering the much better pro fi tability and demand outlook; however, Unimicron mentioned it will only transfer the BT substrate capacity used to produce consumer related products to ABF substrates, but not those used to produce memory demand, as the memory related BT substrate demand still goes up signi fi cantly close to AI products' pro fi tability.
(7) For glass core substrates, Unimicron believes the mass production will not happen before 2029-2030, but it continues to work on the R&D investment on this technology. Unimicron mentioned this technology is a highly customized one, and it could not be fully supplied by a single substrate maker or packaging company considering the di ffi culty, and the company doesn't expect the glass core substrate to fully replace the organic substrate in the long term, as glass core substrate should only be used in speci fi c high-end design.
We maintain our Neutral rating, while we are positive on overall ABF pricing outlook, with the solid demand from high-end ABF substrates and expect Unimicron can continue to deliver good margin and earnings outlook thanks to the company's leading position in the high-end ABF substrate industry, despite the fact that we believe the company's AI HDI/PCB business GM outlook to remain sluggish considering low yield rate, making the company less attractive vs. ABF substrate peers.
Our positive view on the overall ABF substrate industry pricing uptrend (we believe ABF substrate LTA/spot price will increase by 10-15%/20%+ QoQ per quarter from 3Q26 through at least the end of 2027 - see here) should continue to drive the company's pro fi tability in coming quarters/years. In addition, we have started to see Taiwan ABF substrate companies have begun to sign LTAs with key AI customers for the next 3-5 years capacity, which not only suggests a better product mix in the long term, but also could increase the company's pro fi tability considering the incentive bene fi t (we believe the incentive bene fi t from LTAs could drive the company's OPM by 10ppt+ in the next 5 years in average, which is in-line with what we saw in the last upcycle in 2020-2023). Moreover, the company's new investment in ABF substrate capacity even after 2028 (Exhibit 1; We believe YM3 plant will start MP from 2029) should imply a solid demand outlook as the company mentioned all of its new capacity which will come on stream is mostly covered by LTA from high-end customers.
Overall speaking, we are generally positive on Taiwan ABF substrate suppliers, who should continue to enjoy a better pricing outlook in the next 2+ years, and expect the LTAs will suggest a good product mix in the long term; however, we maintain our relatively conservative view on Unimicron considering the company's track record on execution in the HDI business, and will continue to monitor the business outlook closely.
Maintain Neutral on Unimicron, and revise up our 2026E-28E EPS by 8-39% to re fl ect the above and raise our 12-m TP to NT$1,220 (from NT$1,140 previously).
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
continue trenang up i enzo and reach lunvin camore e ommicron earlings revision labie
Unimicron P&L (NT$ mn)
100
60
Sales
Gross Profit
50
EBIT
80
Net Income
EPS (NT$)
40
60
30
40
supply shorlage laulo
2027E New
60%
2027E Old
302,344
50%
107,715
85,753
66,492
40%
2026E New
191,248
49,178
19.7
32,266
35,624
2026E Old
53.7
188,516
44,333
28,373
25.490
Diff.
1%
11%
14%
40%
Exhibit 1: Unimicron continues to revise up 2026 CAPEX NT$bn 6.0 25.7% 23.5% 22pp
19.4
EBIT margin
Net margin
20
20
10
0
0
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43.68
35.6%
28.4%
20%
22.0%
-5%
7/29/2025
16.9%
15.1%
1.8 pp
2022
3Q22
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: We believe the ABF substrate industry UTR will continue trending up in 2H26 and reach full UTR
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision
We revise up our 2026/27/28E earnings estimate by 39%/8%/8%, after revising up the estimate on ABF substrate business GM (we revise up 2026/27/28E Unimicron's GM by 2.2/1.8/1.7ppt) considering the faster than expected high-end ABF substrate exposure (60% in 2Q and could be 70%+ in 2H, per the company).
Exhibit 4: Unimicron earnings revision table
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Diff.
1%
6%
8%
8%
2028E Old
135,710
102,742
34%
2028E New
145,060
111,562
Diff.
7%
9%
Exhibit 2: We expect the ABF industry S/D gap will continue to expand in coming years 1.7pp
Supply shortage ratio
34.0%
31.9%
2.0pp
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
NTSmn
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating expense
Operating income
Pretax income
Taxes expense
Net income
1Q26
(3,969)
2,757
6.299
(918)
5.043
EPS, NTS
3.28
Ratio analysis and assumption
As % of sales
Gross margin
Operating expense ratio
Net margin
QoQ growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
YoY growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
Exhibit 5: Unimicron P&L table
| 109.4% | 115.2% | 133.6% | 159.5% | 133.3% | 113.9% | 14% | 46% | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 153.5% | 105.4% | 12% | 58% | 41% | 35% 46% | ||||||||||
| 117.6% | 150.6% 212.9% | 221.3% | 534 2% | 2822% | 191.5% | 169% | 119% | 63% | |||||||
| 340.7% 540.7% 451.4% 44196.7% | 451.2% | 1125.1% | 1145.2% 1224.7% 48402.6% | 1411.0% | 405.4% | 291.3% | 30% | 383% | 166% | 69% | 50% | ||||
| 230.9% | 188.7% | 698.9% | 536.1% | 361.0% | 303.4% | 224.4% | 31% | 434% | 87% | 68% | 53% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Investment thesis, PT methodology and risks
Investment Thesis - Unimicron Technology
Unimicron is a key supplier of ABF substrates (25% market share in 2025) and BT substrates and also produces FPC/HDI/PCB products. We are Neutral rated on the shares given long-term growth opportunity prospects: (1) over 70% of ABF shipments are covered by long-term agreements (LTA), which limits pricing fl exibility and makes price hike less likely; (2) the company's execution track record has been weaker than peers; (3) capacity expansion plan remains slower than peers, constraining its ability to capture incremental AI demand. The current ABF substrates market is seeing more favorable supply demand outlook, and Unimicron is likely to see better pricing outlook to re fl ect rising material costs in the coming quarters. AI ABF account for 10% of the company's total revenue, but the growth is likely to be slower than peers due to the company continuing to lose market share to peers given its less favourable production yield and slow capacity expansion. Overall, we are Neutral rated on Unimicron given our outlook for the limited upside potential, barring ASIC AI servers, despite our generally positive view on the long term on pro fi tability trajectory.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Unimicron Technology
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$1,220 for Unimicron is based on 17.4x 2028E P/E, which is 2.7x STDV higher than the past upcycle average P/E (10.3x).
Key upside/downside risks: (1) Slower/faster-than-expected PC demand recovery, (2) Slower/faster-than-expected ABF substrates upgrading pace, and (3) Slower/faster than-expected AI server PCB market share loss progress.
2026
(3,987)
6,651
15.576
(2,233)
13.115
8.45
3Q26E
51,928
14.233
(4.414)
9,820
9.820
(2,259)
7.261
4.68
4Q26E
58,984
17,580
(4,542)
2Q27E
69.883
23,907
(5,112)
1Q27E
63,010
20.210
(4.691)
13,039
15,519
18,795
Valuation
10.204
4Q27E
90,035
34.705
(6,424)
28.281
28,281
(5,497)
1Q28E
94.912
36,965
(6,775)
30,190
30.190
(6,642)
3Q27E
79.416
28,893
(5,736)
23.158
23.158
(5.326)
2Q28E
100,077
40.663
(7,047)
33,616
33.616
(7,395)
3Q28E
111,089
46,250
(7,822)
38,428
38,428
(8,838)
4Q28E
121,176
51.243
(8.418)
42,825
42.825
(9,422)
2025
131.241
18,292
(11,618)
6,674
8,827
(1,277)
2026E
191,248
32,266
44.733
(7,944)
2027E
302,344
85,753
85.753
(18,062)
2028E
427.254
145.060
145.060
(32,297)
2029E
576.393
217,087
217.087
(45,902)
We are Neutral rated with a new 12-month TP of NT$1,220 (from NT$1,140), based on the same 17.4x P/E on 2028E EPS. We believe the company could trade at 2.7x STDV higher than past upcycle average P/E of 10.3x, and factor in our latest earnings revisions. 12,115 14.360 17.531 22,485 23.248 25,920 29,290 33.104 66.492 111,562 170.614
8.9%
5.1%
5.1%
8.8%
16.9%
18.6%
7.3%
28.4%
22.0%
7.0%
34.0%
26.1%
6.8%
37.7%
29.6%
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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