PDF 原檔：報告_GS_景碩3189_20260731_original.pdf
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91KB | 真資料圖 | Kinsus (3189.TW) GS 評等與股價目標歷史圖：股價（灰線）與目標價階梯（藍色方塊/圓點），2023-2026，右軸為 Taiwan SE Weighted Index；圖上標註歷次目標價數字（130.51→...→370→425→485→555），資料截至 2026/6/30 收盤價 |
原始內容
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Kinsus (3189.TW): 2Q26 earnings review - Better product mix to drive GM/OPM expansion; Buy
2Q26 result overview
Kinsus' 2Q26 core business (OPI) was 2% below our estimates as GM was 0.2ppt lower than GSe despite our estimates are at the highest end of the consensus range. However, core business was 3% higher than BBG consensus as GM was 0.4ppt higher than consensus estimates. We believe the solid GM expansion this quarter (+4.9ppt QoQ, +5.0ppt YoY, adjusting for the one-o ff impact in 1Q26, GM expansion was 1.6ppt QoQ) was mainly driven by better product mix with higher contribution from ABF substrate business.
For earnings, Kinsus 2Q26 EPS was 10%/14% higher than GSe/BBG consensus on lower tax rate.
Valuation
We maintain our Buy rating with a 12m TP of NT$1,120, based on 16.5x 2028E P/E, which is +1.2x STDV higher than Kinsus' past upcycle average P/E (14.2x).
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuanchao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Kinsus (3189. TW)
Revenue
Gross profits
12,496
2Q26
GS est.
12,496
3,261
3,282
Exhibit 1: Kinsus 2Q26 comp table
Pre-tax income
Net earnings
EPS, NT$
Gross margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net margin (%)
Diff (%)
0%
-1%
-2%
QoQ
1Q26
11,105
2,349
890
QoQ
13%
39%
89%
YoY
2Q25
9,564
2,016
620
YoY
31%
62%
171%
Bloomberg consensus
Consensus
12,529
3,221
1,623
0%
•••••
1%
..••••••••
3%
| -2% 964 | -2% 964 | -2% 964 | 85% | 85% | 188% 1,691 | 188% 1,691 | 6% ....•.•••••• | 6% ....•.•••••• |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,093 | 20% | 549 | 139% | 338 | 288% | 1,183 | 11% | |
| 2.34 | 10% | 1.17 | 119% | 0.74 | 244% | 2.25 | 14% | |
| 26.3% | -0.2ppt | 21.2% | 4.9ppt | 21.1% | 5.0ppt | 25.7% | 0.4ppt | |
| 13.7% | -0.3ppt | 8.0% | 5.4ppt | 6.5% | 7.0ppt | 13.0% | 0.5ppt | |
| 8.7% | 1.7ppt | 4.9% | 5.5ppt | 3.5% | 7.0ppt | 9.4% | 1.0ppt |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Investment Thesis - Kinsus
Kinsus is one of the key IC substrates suppliers globally with ~10% ABF/BT substrates market share in 2024, with ~18% of total 2025 revenue contributed by its contact lens subsidiary, Pegavision (6941.TW, Not Covered). With our view that the ABF substrate shortage started from 2Q26 (ABF substrate return to supply demand balance from late 2025), we believe Kinsus' performance will continue to improve compared with high-end ABF peers considering the company's increasing market share in the high-end ABF substrate market; however, ~36% of the company's revenue was contributed by BT substrates in 2025 and 30% of the company's ABF revenue is from non-LTA customers, which we believe will continue to enjoy a better pricing outlook. As a result, we believe Kinsus' earnings outlook should continue to be strong (~125% 2026-28E CAGR), mainly driven by better BT substrate and non-LTA ABF substrate pricing outlook, despite the unfavorable demand outlook before 2H26. We believe Kinsus is an experienced substrate supplier with a clear capacity expansion plan that can also upgrade its product portfolio in the long term. We believe we are at the beginning of an industry upcycle, making us positive on Kinsus' stock performance over the next 12 months.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Kinsus
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$1,120 for Kinsus is based on 16.5x 2028E P/E, which is +1.2x STDV higher than Kinsus' past upcycle average P/E (14.2x).
Key downside risks: (1) Slower-than-expected PC demand recovery, (2) Slower-than-expected ABF substrates pricing upgrading outlook, (3) Slower/Less-than-expected AI server orders from 2H26.
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3189.TW
12m Price Target:
NT$1,120.00
Price:
NT$635.00
Upside: 76.4%
| Buy | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market c ap: NT$286.4 bn / $8.8 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$2 9 8. 0bn / $ 9 .2 bn 3m AD T V : NT$ 13 . 3bn / $4 1 8. 7mn Ta iw a n Ta iw a n El e c tr onic Com p on e n t s M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : s | Revenue (NT$ mn) E BITDA (NT$ mn) (NT$) | 39,351.1 | 54,949.1 | 95,644.9 | 154,184.8 |
| Market c ap: NT$286.4 bn / $8.8 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$2 9 8. 0bn / $ 9 .2 bn 3m AD T V : NT$ 13 . 3bn / $4 1 8. 7mn Ta iw a n Ta iw a n El e c tr onic Com p on e n t s M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : s | 9,913.6 | 15,780.5 | 29,039.6 | 46,645.1 | |
| Market c ap: NT$286.4 bn / $8.8 bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$2 9 8. 0bn / $ 9 .2 bn 3m AD T V : NT$ 13 . 3bn / $4 1 8. 7mn Ta iw a n Ta iw a n El e c tr onic Com p on e n t s M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : s | E PS | 3.51 | 13.36 | 36.42 | 67.79 |
| P/ E (X) | 29.0 | 47.5 | 17.4 | 9.4 | |
| P/B (X) | 1.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 4.6 | |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 4.3 | |
| N debt/ E BITDA (ex lease,X) | 0.6 | 0.1 | (0.1) | (0.3) | |
| CROCI (%) | 12.4 | 17.1 | 25.6 | 34.9 | |
| Y e | F C F yield (%) | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| 3/26 | 6/26E | 9/26E | 12/26E | ||
| E PS (NT$) | 1.17 | 2.34 | 4.42 | 5.44 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 31 Jul 2026 close.
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