PDF 原檔：報告_GS_昇達科3491_20260914_original.pdf
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Exhibit 7 — 昇達科 discounted PE 表：2022–2030E 衛星營收占比 15%→93%、EPS 至 2029E 80.25 元、目標 P/E 37.0x、TP NT$2,557、COE 7.8% | 真資料圖，惟內文已有等價表格 |
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月營收趨勢 | 真資料圖 |
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產品別營收拆解 | 真資料圖 |
| 其餘 4 張 | 估值與揭露配圖 | 裝飾 |
原始內容
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UMT (3491.TWO): LEO satellite launches accelerating with speci fi cation upgrade; Aug re fl ects reducing impact from model transition; Buy
UMT's revenues returned to sequential growth after three consecutive months of 10-15% MoM decline under its major customer's model transition. Aug revenues were up 40% MoM to NT$321m, or 3% ahead of our estimates. We expect sequential revenues growth in Sep to Dec 2026 at +17-19% MoM, leading 3Q26 / 4Q26 revenues to grow at +91% / +90% YoY driven by accelerating LEO satellite launches, and a new generation of LEO satellite driving up the company's dollar content. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 1: UMT monthly revenues trend
Source: Company data
UMT provides rectangular waveguides, which are conducting pipes with a rectangular cross-section used to guide the propagation of microwave or mmwave signals. Di ff erent shapes and combinations of waveguides can form various RF passive components, such as fi lter / diplexer, coupler, isolator, antenna, power ampli fi ers (PAs), etc. The company serves leading global LEO satellite operators, and its waveguides can be seen in LEO satellites / payloads (main), and gateways in ground stations.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu +852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: UMT revenues by products
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
LEO satellite launches update: Starlink launched 261 LEO satellites in Aug 2026, or +13% MoM. The number of satellites per launch continues to increase from 24 satellites per launch in May 2026 to 26 satellites per launch in Aug 2026, and at 27 satellites per launch so far in Sep 2026, rea ffi rming our positive view on the constellation construction cycle. On Sep 18, SpaceX's Starship V3 is scheduled to have the 3rd fl ight and the fi rst Starship fl ight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites) into stable LEO, and should have the 4th fl ight of Starship V3 within 2026 (link). Starship V3 is a reusable vehicle, with LEO capacity at 100k kg, or 339% higher than Falcon 9 Block 5 (22.8kg), the current vehicle that Starlink is using. The vehicle migration would not only accelerate Starlink's satellite launches but also release the legacy vehicle (e.g. Falcon 9 Block 5) to other LEO satellite operators, facilitating the overall industry's satellite launches. For example, Amazon has planned 10 launches (LF-04 to LF-13) in 2029, using Falcon 9 Block 5. Assuming 27 satellites per launch via the vehicle, the 10 missions would bring 270 satellites (vs. 180 / 216 satellites in 2025 / 7M26 that Amazon added). Amazon is also increasing its satellites per launch: the upcoming pipeline shows 35-48 satellites per launch vs. 29-36 satellites per launch in May to July 2026, or increasing by 28% on avg. The acceleration of LEO satellite launches rea ffi rms our positive view on UMT.
Exhibit 3: UMT monthly revenues preview
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026E | Oct 2026E | Nov 2026E | Dec 2026E | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 230 | 321 | 374 | 438 | 521 | 623 | 902 | 926 | 1,582 |
| YoY | 82% | 93% | 96% | 92% | 83% | 94% | 76% | 91% | 90% |
| MoM/QoQ | -10% | 40% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 19% | -12% | 3% | 71% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 277 | 311 | 966 | ||||||
| Actual vs. GS | -17% | 3% | -7% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Aug revenues, and raise net income by 1% in 2026-28E. The revenue raise is to re fl ect our positive view on accelerating LEO satellite launches along with speci fi cation upgrade driving up the dollar content. Our GM is reduced to re fl ect our expectation that the larger scale would lead to lower GM with customers' rising procurement power. Nevertheless, with the company's product mix upgrade toward LEO satellite, the blended GM should continue to increase through 2028E.
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Exhibit 4: Earnings revision
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$m | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% |
| Revenues | 4,293 | 4,430 | 3% | 8,959 | 9,327 | 4% | 12,580 | 13,116 | 4% |
| GP | 2,615 | 2,627 | 0% | 6,065 | 6,041 | 0% | 8,714 | 8,625 | -1% |
| OP | 1,419 | 1,450 | 2% | 3,574 | 3,657 | 2% | 5,242 | 5,293 | 1% |
| Net income | 1,261 | 1,273 | 1% | 2,863 | 2,893 | 1% | 4,134 | 4,185 | 1% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 60.9% | 59.3% | 67.7% | 64.8% | 69.3% | 65.8% | |||
| OPM | 33.1% | 32.7% | 39.9% | 39.2% | 41.7% | 40.4% | |||
| NM | 29.4% | 28.7% | 32.0% | 31.0% | 32.9% | 31.9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Compared to Bloomberg consensus, our net income is in line in 2026E and 13% higher in 2027E, re fl ecting our positive view on the LEO satellite constellation construction cycle, UMT's dollar content increase on speci fi cation upgrade, and UMT's leading market position considering its strong design capability, commitment in capacity expansion and timely services to customers. In Aug, the company announced investment of US$12m (NT$388m) in Vietnam and procured US$9.3m of equipment for its Vietnam factory, re fl ecting its continuous capacity expansion and diversi fi cation. The company also announced it would set up a subsidiary in the US with investment of up to US$10m (NT$323m), and we expect the subsidiary could support the company to serve its major customers in a timely manner.
Exhibit 5: GS vs. Bloomberg consensus
| NT$m | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | Cons. | Diff% | GS | Cons. | Diff% | |
| Revenues | 4,430 | 4,443 | 0% | 9,327 | 7,666 | 22% |
| GP | 2,627 | 2,628 | 0% | 6,041 | 4,935 | 22% |
| OP | 1,450 | 1,451 | 0% | 3,657 | 3,141 | 16% |
| Net income | 1,273 | 1,291 | -1% | 2,893 | 2,569 | 13% |
| Margins | ||||||
| GM | 59.3% | 59.2% | 64.8% | 64.4% | ||
| OPM | 32.7% | 32.7% | 39.2% | 41.0% | ||
| NM | 28.7% | 29.1% | 31.0% | 33.5% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
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Exhibit 6: UMT P&L
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 1,585 | 2,335 | 2,452 | 4,430 | 9,327 | 13,116 | 620 | 514 | 484 | 834 | 1,020 | 902 | 926 | 1,582 |
| Gross profit | 641 | 1,198 | 1,254 | 2,627 | 6,041 | 8,625 | 314 | 223 | 229 | 489 | 592 | 502 | 534 | 1,000 |
| OP income | 202 | 624 | 574 | 1,450 | 3,657 | 5,293 | 167 | 94 | 84 | 230 | 314 | 241 | 267 | 628 |
| Net income | 200 | 547 | 518 | 1,273 | 2,893 | 4,185 | 143 | 71 | 88 | 216 | 253 | 308 | 209 | 502 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.12 | 8.27 | 7.56 | 18.41 | 41.84 | 60.53 | 2.09 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 3.11 | 3.66 | 4.45 | 3.03 | 7.27 |
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| Opex ratio | 27.7% | 24.6% | 27.7% | 26.5% | 25.6% | 25.4% | 23.7% | 25.1% | 29.9% | 31.0% | 27.2% | 28.8% | 28.8% | 23.5% |
| Tax rate | 19.4% | 21.7% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.9% | 7.7% | 21.8% | 19.1% | 20.5% | 13.5% | 22.0% | 20.0% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 40.4% | 51.3% | 51.1% | 59.3% | 64.8% | 65.8% | 50.6% | 43.3% | 47.3% | 58.6% | 58.0% | 55.6% | 57.7% | 63.2% |
| Operating margin | 12.8% | 26.7% | 23.4% | 32.7% | 39.2% | 40.4% | 26.9% | 18.2% | 17.4% | 27.6% | 30.8% | 21.6% | 28.9% | 39.7% |
| Net margin | 12.6% | 23.4% | 21.1% | 28.7% | 31.0% | 31.9% | 23.0% | 13.8% | 18.2% | 25.9% | 24.8% | 96.4% | 22.6% | 31.8% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -14% | 47% | 5% | 81% | 111% | 41% | 43% | -21% | -24% | 36% | 65% | 76% | 91% | 90% |
| Gross profit | -15% | 87% | 5% | 109% | 130% | 43% | 60% | -38% | -31% | 56% | 89% | 125% | 133% | 105% |
| OP income | -31% | 208% | -8% | 152% | 152% | 45% | 117% | -53% | -55% | 40% | 88% | 158% | 218% | 173% |
| Net income | -26% | 173% | -5% | 146% | 127% | 45% | 84% | -60% | -33% | 36% | 77% | 333% | 137% | 133% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 1% | -17% | -6% | 72% | 22% | -12% | 3% | 71% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 0% | -29% | 3% | 113% | 21% | -15% | 6% | 87% | ||||||
| OP income | 2% | -44% | -10% | 173% | 36% | -23% | 11% | 135% | ||||||
| Net income | -10% | -50% | 24% | 145% | 17% | 22% | -32% | 140% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our target price based on a discounted P/E, and based on 2029E (methodology unchanged). We continue to derive the target P/E multiple from the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain, and we remove outliers (those below 0.3x, which are mostly telecom operators who face competition from LEO satellite operators or having consumer electronics exposure which su ff ered from high memory costs). Our target 2029E discounted P/E multiple is at 37.0x (unchanged) which is based on peers' avg. PEG&M, and UMT's 2029-30E avg. NI YoY and OPM. We apply the 37.0x multiple to 2029E EPS and discount it back to 2027E via a COE of 7.8% (no change). Our target price is at NT$2,557 (vs. NT$2,513 previously), implying 61x 2027E P/E, which is above the company's average +1 stv. P/E of 42x, re fl ecting our positive view on UMT's product mix upgrade toward LEO satellites. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 7: UMT discounted PE
| (NT$ mn) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milestones | Telecom components | Telecom components | Telecom components | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite users ramp up | LEO satellite users ramp up |
| Satellite revenues% | 15% | 15% | 43% | 59% | 79% | 91% | 93% | ||
| Revenue | 1,838 | 1,585 | 2,335 | 2,452 | 4,430 | 9,327 | 13,116 | 17,050 | 19,608 |
| YoY | 5% | -14% | 47% | 5% | 81% | 111% | 41% | 30% | 15% |
| Gross margin | 40.9% | 40.4% | 51.3% | 51.1% | 59.3% | 64.8% | 65.8% | 66.3% | 66.8% |
| Operating profit | 294 | 202 | 624 | 574 | 1,450 | 3,657 | 5,293 | 7,001 | 8,188 |
| YoY | 33% | -31% | 208% | -8% | 152% | 152% | 45% | 32% | 17% |
| Operating margin | 16% | 13% | 27% | 23% | 33% | 39% | 40% | 41% | 42% |
| Net profit | 271 | 200 | 547 | 518 | 1,273 | 2,893 | 4,185 | 5,548 | 6,488 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 4.34 | 3.12 | 8.27 | 7.56 | 18.41 | 41.84 | 60.53 | 80.25 | 93.85 |
| YoY | 15% | -26% | 173% | -5% | 146% | 127% | 45% | 33% | 17% |
| TP implied P/E | 589 | 821 | 309 | 338 | 139 | 61 | 42 | 32 | 27 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
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Exhibit 8: UMT peers comparison
| Valuation | 2029E P/E | 2029-30 avg. NI YoY | avg. OPM | PEG&M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMT | 37.0 | 25% | 41% | 0.56 |
| Peers | 2027E P/E | 2027/28 avg. NI YoY | avg. OPM | PEG&M |
| WNC | 17 | 15% | 5% | 0.85 |
| Compeq | 16 | 60% | 17% | 0.21 |
| Lite-On Tech | 19 | 49% | 15% | 0.29 |
| BT | 10 | 10% | 20% | 0.32 |
| Verizon | 10 | 9% | 25% | 0.27 |
| T-Mobile | 11 | 37% | 30% | 0.16 |
| Hon Hai | 11 | 15% | 3% | 0.64 |
| Avg. | 13 | 28% | 17% | 0.30 |
| Avg. w/o outliers | 13 | 13% | 9% | 0.56 |
Outliers are in grey; Compeq and Lite-On Tech are not covered and use Bloomberg consensus; price as of Sep 11, 2026
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 10: UMT QFII holdings
Source: TEJ
Exhibit 9: UMT 12M forward PE ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 11: UMT net income and OPM trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price target risks and methodology - UMT
Valuation: We use a discounted P/E methodology and apply a 37.0x target P/E multiple to UMT's 2029E EPS, discounting it back to 2027E at a COE of 7.8% (beta 1.2x, risk-free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), which leads to our 12-month target price of NT$2,557. The target P/E is based on the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain. We are Buy-rated on UMT.
Key Risks: Slower-than-expected LEO satellite deployment; Potential competition from new-entrant suppliers; LEO satellite operators manufacturing in-house components.
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3491.TWO
12m Price Target:
NT$2,557.00
Price:
NT$1,415.00
Upside:
80.7%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | Revenue (NT $m n ) Ne w Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) E PS (NT $) Ne w EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 2 ,4 52 . 2 2,452.2 687.4 7 . 56 7.60 | 4,430.4 4,292.9 1,588.8 18 .4 1 18.82 76.8 20.1 0.7 31.2 | 9,3 27 .0 8,958.9 | 1 3, 115 . 7 |
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 12,579.9 | ||||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 3,808.3 | 5,452.5 | |||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 4 1 . 8 4 | 6 0. 5 3 | |||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 41.73 | 60.26 | |||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 54.8 | 33.8 | 23.4 | ||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 7.6 | 15.5 | 11.6 | ||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | ||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 13.1 | 55.5 | 72.4 | ||
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | 6/26 | 9 /26E | 12/26E | 3 /27E | |
| Market c ap: NT$93.6b n / $3. 0 b n En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$93. 4 b n / $ 2 .9b n 3 m AD T V : NT$ 2 .6b n / $ 80 . 0mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d ebt & EV? : Y e s | EPS (NT$) | 4.45 | 3.03 | 7.27 | 7.35 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 11 Sep 2026 close.
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