PDF 原檔：報告_GS_技嘉2376_20261020_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-22）
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35KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1 技嘉 2025–26 月營收長條＋YoY 折線，Oct–Dec(E) 淺色預估；9 月約 NT$63bn、YoY 約 125% |
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78KB | 裝飾·財務圖 | GS 對技嘉評等與目標價歷史圖（2023-10～2026-09，標註各次 TP、最新 487） |
原始內容
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Gigabyte (2376.TW): AI servers to drive 2H26 growth; Capex commitments remain strong; Neutral
3-month revenues preview: We expect sequential revenue growth in Oct-Dec on a YoY basis, driven by rising AI server racks, leading our 4Q26 revenues YoY to accelerate to 79% (vs. 60% / 41% YoY in 1Q26 / 2Q26). However, we expect revenue decline in Oct-Dec on a MoM basis which we attribute to AI servers model transition and the high base in Sep; nevertheless, we continue to expect revenues sequentially increase qoq in 4Q26E. We expect the stronger growth in 2H26 to be driven by ongoing AI spending, customers' faster AI deployment, and Gigabyte's expanding customer base and enhancing backlog visibility. Customers' infrastructure readiness and components procurement should continue to improve in 2H26, supporting the procurement on AI servers. The company maintains strong capex commitment, and we expect 2H26 capex to stay at a similar high level vs. 1H26, leading 2026 capex to grow at 148% YoY to NT$2.9bn to capture the strong AI servers demand, and customers' requirements on diversifying production sites (e.g., Gigabyte is across Taiwan, US, Europe, and Southeast Asia).
Exhibit 1: Gigabyte monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: We expect Gigabyte Oct-Dec revenues to grow 106%/ 74%/ 60% YoY to NT$58bn/ NT$53bn/ NT$49bn
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26(E) | Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 44,213 | 47,401 | 63,099 | 58,367 | 53,406 | 48,590 | 154,713 | 160,362 |
| Rev YoY | 60% | 98% | 125% | 106% | 74% | 60% | 94% | 79% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | 3% | 7% | 33% | -8% | -9% | -9% | 7% | 4% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 37,439 | 47,750 | 52,351 | |||||
| Act vs. GS | 18% | -1% | 21% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Gigabyte's Sep revenue and raise our 2026E net
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuanchao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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income by 2%, mainly on higher revenues. Our 2026E revenues are revised up by 2%, mainly on more AI servers. Our GM, OPM and NM are largely the same. Our net income change is at 2% / 0% / 0% in 2026-28E.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 553,599 | 564,347 | 2% | 728,252 | 731,141 | 0% | 891,025 | 888,639 | 0% |
| GP | 54,325 | 55,305 | 2% | 66,328 | 66,735 | 1% | 78,488 | 78,459 | 0% |
| OP | 28,031 | 28,471 | 2% | 33,921 | 34,199 | 1% | 40,174 | 40,247 | 0% |
| Net income | 21,165 | 21,499 | 2% | 25,779 | 25,857 | 0% | 29,988 | 30,091 | 0% |
| EPS (Diluted,NT$) | 28.47 | 28.92 | 2% | 34.52 | 34.62 | 0% | 40.15 | 40.29 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 9.8% | 9.8% | 0ppts | 9.1% | 9.1% | +0ppts | 8.8% | 8.8% | +0ppts |
| OPM | 5.1% | 5.0% | 0ppts | 4.7% | 4.7% | +0ppts | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0ppts |
| NM | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0ppts | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0ppts | 3.4% | 3.4% | +0ppts |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Gigabyte P&L Summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 65,747 | 102,258 | 79,581 | 89,350 | 105,057 | 144,214 | 154,713 | 160,362 | 136,773 | 265,149 | 336,937 | 564,347 | 731,141 | 888,639 |
| Gross profit | 8,480 | 9,633 | 7,883 | 9,189 | 12,615 | 13,873 | 14,269 | 14,549 | 16,575 | 28,092 | 35,185 | 55,305 | 66,735 | 78,459 |
| Operating income | 4,240 | 5,293 | 3,437 | 3,803 | 7,414 | 8,120 | 6,487 | 6,450 | 4,895 | 12,777 | 16,772 | 28,471 | 34,199 | 40,247 |
| Net income | 3,116 | 3,050 | 3,056 | 2,969 | 5,268 | 6,606 | 4,822 | 4,803 | 4,743 | 9,789 | 12,190 | 21,499 | 25,857 | 30,091 |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.65 | 4.55 | 4.56 | 4.43 | 7.86 | 9.86 | 7.20 | 7.17 | 7.46 | 15.16 | 18.20 | 32.09 | 38.60 | 44.92 |
| Margins / ratio | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 12.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
| Operating margin | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0% | 56% | -22% | 12% | 18% | 37% | 7% | 4% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 28% | 14% | -18% | 17% | 37% | 10% | 3% | 2% | ||||||
| Operating income | 72% | 25% | -35% | 11% | 95% | 10% | -20% | -1% | ||||||
| Net income | 8% | -2% | 0% | -3% | 77% | 25% | -27% | 0% | ||||||
| EPS | 5% | -2% | 0% | -3% | 77% | 25% | -27% | 0% | ||||||
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 19% | 38% | 13% | 36% | 60% | 41% | 94% | 79% | 28% | 94% | 27% | 67% | 30% | 22% |
| Gross profit | 36% | 21% | 9% | 38% | 49% | 44% | 81% | 58% | 0% | 69% | 25% | 57% | 21% | 18% |
| Operating income | 38% | 37% | 2% | 54% | 75% | 53% | 89% | 70% | -16% | 161% | 31% | 70% | 20% | 18% |
| Net income | 54% | 3% | 59% | 3% | 69% | 117% | 58% | 62% | -27% | 106% | 25% | 76% | 20% | 16% |
| EPS | 46% | -2% | 57% | 0% | 69% | 117% | 58% | 62% | -28% | 103% | 20% | 76% | 20% | 16% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP. Our 2027E target P/E is updated to 14.2x (vs. previously at 14.1x), still derived from correlation of peers' forward year P/E to avg. EPS YoY (methodology unchanged). With our updated target P/E and earnings estimates, our 12M TP increases to NT$492 (vs. NT$487 previously). The target P/E of 14.2x is within the company's historical avg. and avg.-1std forward trading P/E. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 5: The target P/E is derived from correlation of peers' 2027 trading P/E and 2027-28 NI YoY growth
Exhibit 6: Gigabyte 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 7: Gigabyte QFII holdings
Exhibit 8: Gigabyte NI and OPM
Source: TEJ
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Gigabyte
We are Neutral rated on Gigabyte with a 12-month target price of NT$492. Our TP is based on a 14.2x 2027E P/E which is based on PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share performance.
Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery, 2) faster-/slower-than-expected gaming PC growth, and 3) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up.
| 2376.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$492.00 | Price: NT$355.00 | Upside: 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | GS Forecast | ||||
| Market cap: NT$265.1bn / $8.1bn Enterprise value: NT$336.4bn / $10.3bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.5bn / $76.9mn Taiwan Greater China Electronic Components M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 17,673.7 18.20 18.20 14.5 3.3 4.2 23.7 6/26 | 12/26E 564,347.2 553,598.7 29,521.7 32.09 31.59 11.1 3.9 5.4 23.5 9/26E | 12/27E 731,141.4 728,252.0 35,284.2 38.60 38.48 9.2 3.5 6.4 18.0 12/26E | 12/28E 888,638.8 891,025.1 41,657.9 44.92 44.77 7.9 3.1 7.5 18.7 3/27E |
| EPS (NT$) | 336,936.7 336,936.7 9.86 | 7.20 | 7.17 | 7.03 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 20 Oct 2026 close.
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