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74KB | 真資料圖 | Quanta（2382.TW）GS 評等與目標價歷史圖：2023-2026 股價線與 Taiwan SE Weighted 指數線，標有歷次目標價（如 262、270、299、383、408、413、…、293、299 等），評等欄顯示 B→N（2025-03-24 起 N）、資料截至 2026-09-30 |
原始內容
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Quanta (2382.TW): AI servers ramp up to drive growth ahead; model transition and PC shipment slowdown could weigh on 4Q26; Neutral
Quanta Sep revenues declined by 23% MoM, which we attributed to AI servers model transition, while PC entering quarter-end at strong MoM of +62% MoM. Looking forward, we expect monthly revenues to resume sequential growth in Oct to Dec, riding on reducing impact of AI servers model transition as new racks ramping up, along with growing general servers on agentic AI, and ASP increase on better specification and high raw material costs. We expect 4Q26E revenues to decline by 4% QoQ, considering the high base in 3Q26 and the gradual ramp up of new AI server racks. As we highlighted in Oct (Global Server TAM updates), we expect global AI server racks (powered by NVIDIA and AMD) shipment at 63k / 110k / 164k in 2026E-28E along with the specification upgrade to drive the ASP; we raised leading US CSPs in aggregate capex by 4% / 17% / 22% in 2026E-28E to US$1,397bn by 2028E, reflecting our positive view on AI spending. Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
Exhibit 1: Quanta monthly revenues in 2025-26E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Quanta monthly revenues preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26(E) | Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 366,274 | 423,971 | 325,300 | 325,300 | 328,553 | 411,898 | 1,115,545 | 1,065,750 |
| YoY | 131% | 177% | 77% | 88% | 70% | 51% | 125% | 67% |
| MoM/QoQ | -5% | 16% | -23% | 0% | 1% | 25% | 8% | -4% |
| GS (NT$m) | 301,464 | 293,019 | 272,034 | 1,062,279 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 21% | 45% | 20% | 5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We raise revenues by 1% / 23% / 30% in 2026E-28E to reflect the AI server racks shipment ramp up and higher ASP on better specification. Given the
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 4: Quanta P&L
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 485,672 | 504,122 | 495,258 | 638,637 | 809,221 | 1,036,593 | 1,115,545 | 1,065,750 | 1,410,756 | 2,123,689 | 4,027,108 | 5,585,261 | 6,797,526 |
| Gross profit | 38,483 | 35,533 | 33,918 | 40,398 | 38,697 | 52,079 | 56,745 | 58,751 | 110,760 | 148,332 | 206,272 | 249,373 | 291,613 |
| Operating expense | (5,560) | (5,695) | (5,855) | (6,658) | (6,213) | (8,133) | (8,590) | (9,592) | (49,138) | (60,936) | (74,568) | (106,636) | (107,417) |
| Operating income | 24,600 | 20,403 | 18,374 | 24,019 | 23,024 | 34,244 | 37,000 | 37,436 | 61,622 | 87,396 | 131,704 | 142,738 | 184,196 |
| Pre tax profit | 25,269 | 21,617 | 20,909 | 27,478 | 24,537 | 36,561 | 35,307 | 35,733 | 73,167 | 95,273 | 132,138 | 143,104 | 184,648 |
| Net income | 19,498 | 16,861 | 16,431 | 22,197 | 21,192 | 28,651 | 27,661 | 27,157 | 59,702 | 74,988 | 104,662 | 113,338 | 146,241 |
| EPS (Diluted, NT$) | 4.91 | 4.26 | 4.14 | 5.44 | 5.24 | 7.10 | 6.85 | 6.73 | 15.29 | 18.75 | 25.91 | 28.07 | 36.22 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Opex ratio | -2.9% | -3.0% | -3.1% | -2.6% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -2.0% | -3.5% | -2.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
| Operating margin | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Net margin | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 16% | 4% | -2% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 8% | -4% | |||||
| Gross profit | 24% | -8% | -5% | 19% | -4% | 35% | 9% | 4% | |||||
| Operating income | 62% | -17% | -10% | 31% | -4% | 49% | 8% | 1% | |||||
| Pre tax profit | 42% | -14% | -3% | 31% | -11% | 49% | -3% | 1% | |||||
| Net income | 23% | -14% | -3% | 35% | -5% | 35% | -3% | -2% | |||||
| EPS | 24% | -13% | -3% | 31% | -4% | 36% | -3% | -2% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 88% | 63% | 17% | 53% | 67% | 106% | 125% | 67% | 30% | 51% | 90% | 39% | 22% |
| Gross profit | 75% | 34% | 9% | 30% | 1% | 47% | 67% | 45% | 30% | 34% | 39% | 21% | 17% |
| Operating income | 110% | 34% | -6% | 58% | -6% | 68% | 101% | 56% | 41% | 42% | 51% | 8% | 29% |
| Pre tax profit | 74% | 10% | -2% | 55% | -3% | 69% | 69% | 30% | 41% | 30% | 39% | 8% | 29% |
| Net income | 62% | 11% | -1% | 40% | 9% | 70% | 68% | 22% | 50% | 26% | 40% | 8% | 29% |
| EPS | 58% | 9% | -3% | 37% | 7% | 67% | 65% | 24% | 50% | 23% | 38% | 8% | 29% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use a near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP. Our target P/E multiple is at 10.7x 2027E (no change), which is derived from the refreshed peers' correlation between forward trading P/E and earnings growth and Quanta's forward year earnings growth. With our updated earnings estimates our 12M TP is revised up to NT$300 (vs. NT$299 previously). Our target P/E is still between the company's historical avg. and avg. -1stv. trading P/E. Maintain Neutral.
much lower GM of AI server racks compared to Quanta's other products, our changes in gross profits narrow to 2% / 5% / 5% in 2026E-28E. Our opex ratio remains largely unchanged in 2026E-27E, while further improves in 2028E reflecting the enhancing operation efficiency when revenues scale increases and harvest from previous R&D investments. We change our non-op income and tax rate estimates in 2026E-28E closer to historical trend. Our net income is thus changed by -2% / +0% / +14% in 2026E-28E.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,995,600 | 4,027,108 | 1% | 4,542,915 | 5,585,261 | 23% | 5,244,179 | 6,797,526 | 30% |
| GP | 202,023 | 206,272 | 2% | 237,799 | 249,373 | 5% | 278,608 | 291,613 | 5% |
| OP | 130,790 | 131,704 | 1% | 149,212 | 142,738 | -4% | 171,103 | 184,196 | 8% |
| Net income | 106,537 | 104,662 | -2% | 113,028 | 113,338 | 0% | 127,773 | 146,241 | 14% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | |||
| OPM | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | |||
| NM | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | |||
| Opex ratio | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Exhibit 5: Quanta 12M forward P/E ratio
Exhibit 6: Quanta peers 2027E P/E vs. 2027E-28E NI YoY
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Quanta
We are Neutral rated on Quanta. Our 12-month target price of NT$300 is based on an 10.7x 2027E P/E, which references PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance. Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger-/weaker-than-expected demand for general servers.
| 2382.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$300.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$300.00 | Price: NT$322.00 | Price: NT$322.00 | Downside: | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | Neutral | GS Forecast | ||||
| Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 12/25 2,123,689.4 2,123,689.4 | 12/26E 4,027,107.9 3,995,599.6 | 12/27E 5,585,260.7 4,542,914.7 155,466.3 | 12/28E 6,797,525.8 5,244,179.1 208,012.2 | ||
| Market cap: NT$1.3tr / $40.1bn Enterprise value: | Market cap: NT$1.3tr / $40.1bn Enterprise value: | Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | ||||
| NT$1.4tr / $42.7bn | NT$1.4tr / $42.7bn | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 99,837.3 | 147,699.2 | ||
| 3m ADTV: NT$5.7bn / $177.9mn | 3m ADTV: NT$5.7bn / $177.9mn | EPS (NT$) New | 19.45 | 27.15 | 29.40 | 37.94 |
| Taiwan | Taiwan | EPS (NT$) Old | 19.45 | 27.64 | 29.32 | 33.06 |
| Greater China Technology | Greater China Technology | P/E (X) | 13.8 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 8.5 |
| M&A Rank: 3 | M&A Rank: 3 | P/B (X) | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Dividend yield (%) | 5.7 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 9.4 |
| CROCI (%) | 28.6 | 28.7 | 28.0 | 34.3 | ||
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 7.43 | 7.18 | 7.05 | 7.12 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 16 Oct 2026 close.
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