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73KB | 真資料圖 | Goldman Sachs 對 Quanta（2382.TW）評等與目標價沿革圖，2023-2026，含股價走勢與台灣加權指數對照 |
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Quanta (2382.TW): New AI server rack ramp up to support 2H26 growth; PC slowdown; Neutral
With a high base in 1H26, driven by PC consumption pull-in and AI server rack expansion, we expect flat QoQ in 3Q26 / 4Q26 at 2% / 2%, reflecting slowdown in PC shipment and AI server racks facing model transitions. The company's PC shipment declined by 30% / 37% YoY in Jul / Aug, reflecting the impact of PC consumption pull-in in 1H26 and slow PC shipment under high memory costs. We expect revenues to sequentially increase in Oct to Dec and further accelerate to 54% MoM in Dec, reflecting the ramp up of next generation AI server racks, which carry higher ASP. With strong AI spending driving not only AI servers (GPU and ASIC) but also general servers, along with customer requirement on capacity diversification, we estimate Quanta's capex to stay at a high level of NT$44bn / NT$32bn in 2026 / 27E (vs. NT$15bn in 2025). In Sep, Quanta announced factory rental in USA at 199k square feet (US$368k per month for 126 months, or NT$1.5bn of total contract value), reflecting strong demand from AI servers. As we highlighted in June (report link), we forecast leading US cloud service providers (CSPs) in aggregate will grow their capex budgets by 76%/ 35%/ 8% YoY in 2026-28E, with our estimates being raised by 8% / 27% / 25% in 2026-28E to US$1,145bn by 2028E. Maintain Neutral rating on Quanta given fair valuation with TP unchanged at NT$299 (10.7x 2027E P/E vs. +9.4% EPS YoY in 2027-28E).
Exhibit 1: Quanta monthly revenues and YoY change
May
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Quanta's Aug revenue and raise our 2026-28E net income by 6% / 3% / 2%, mainly on higher revenues. The higher revenues reflects the next generation AI server rack ramp up on growing AI spending, which also leads to a lower blended GM considering the lower GM of AI server racks compared to other
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu +852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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product lines.
Exhibit 2: We model Quanta's Sep 2026E revenue +48% YoY, or -36% MoM
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26(E) | Oct-26(E) | Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 366,274 | 423,971 | 272,034 | 288,356 | 314,308 | 484,843 | 1,062,279 | 1,087,507 |
| YoY | 131% | 177% | 48% | 66% | 63% | 78% | 114% | 70% |
| MoM/QoQ | -5% | 16% | -36% | 6% | 9% | 54% | 2% | 2% |
| GS (NT$m) | 301,464 | 293,019 | ||||||
| Actual vs. GS | 21% | 45% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Earnings revisions
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,698,804 | 3,995,600 | 8% | 4,130,931 | 4,542,915 | 10% | 4,759,624 | 5,244,179 | 10% |
| GP | 189,910 | 202,023 | 6% | 234,016 | 237,799 | 2% | 270,401 | 278,608 | 3% |
| OP | 121,936 | 130,790 | 7% | 145,174 | 149,212 | 3% | 165,114 | 171,103 | 4% |
| Net income | 100,155 | 106,537 | 6% | 109,529 | 113,028 | 3% | 125,114 | 127,773 | 2% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | |||
| OPM | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | |||
| NM | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | |||
| Opex ratio | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP. Our target PE multiple is updated to 10.7x 2027E EPS (vs. 11.0x previously), which is derived from the refreshed peers' correlation between forward trading P/E and earnings growth. With our updated earnings estimates and target multiple, our 12M TP is unchanged at NT$299. Our target P/E is still between the company's historical avg. and avg.-1stv. trading P/E. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 4: Quanta peers' 2027E P/E vs. 2027E-28E EPS YoY
Exhibit 5: Quanta 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Bloomberg, Company data
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Exhibit 6: Quanta P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 485,672 | 504,122 | 495,258 | 638,637 | 809,221 | 1,036,593 | 1,062,279 | 1,087,507 | 1,410,756 | 2,123,689 | 3,995,600 | 4,542,915 | 5,244,179 |
| Gross profit | 38,483 | 35,533 | 33,918 | 40,398 | 38,697 | 52,079 | 53,649 | 57,598 | 110,760 | 148,332 | 202,023 | 237,799 | 278,608 |
| Operating expense | (5,560) | (5,695) | (5,855) | (6,658) | (6,213) | (8,133) | (8,180) | (8,048) | (49,138) | (60,936) | (71,233) | (88,587) | (107,506) |
| Operating income | 24,600 | 20,403 | 18,374 | 24,019 | 23,024 | 34,244 | 34,847 | 38,675 | 61,622 | 87,396 | 130,790 | 149,212 | 171,103 |
| Pre tax profit | 25,269 | 21,617 | 20,909 | 27,478 | 24,537 | 36,561 | 34,387 | 37,977 | 73,167 | 95,273 | 133,462 | 146,886 | 169,123 |
| Net income | 19,498 | 16,861 | 16,431 | 22,197 | 21,192 | 28,651 | 26,941 | 29,753 | 59,702 | 74,988 | 106,537 | 113,028 | 127,773 |
| EPS (Diluted, NT$) | 4.91 | 4.26 | 4.14 | 5.44 | 5.24 | 7.10 | 6.67 | 7.37 | 15.29 | 18.75 | 26.37 | 28.00 | 31.56 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| Opex ratio | -2.9% | -3.0% | -3.1% | -2.6% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.7% | -3.5% | -2.9% | -1.8% | -2.0% | -2.1% |
| Operating margin | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Net margin | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 16% | 4% | -2% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 2% | 2% | |||||
| Gross profit | 24% | -8% | -5% | 19% | -4% | 35% | 3% | 7% | |||||
| Operating income | 62% | -17% | -10% | 31% | -4% | 49% | 2% | 11% | |||||
| Pre tax profit | 42% | -14% | -3% | 31% | -11% | 49% | -6% | 10% | |||||
| Net income | 23% | -14% | -3% | 35% | -5% | 35% | -6% | 10% | |||||
| EPS | 24% | -13% | -3% | 31% | -4% | 36% | -6% | 10% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 88% | 63% | 17% | 53% | 67% | 106% | 114% | 70% | 30% | 51% | 88% | 14% | 15% |
| Gross profit | 75% | 34% | 9% | 30% | 1% | 47% | 58% | 43% | 30% | 34% | 36% | 18% | 17% |
| Operating income | 110% | 34% | -6% | 58% | -6% | 68% | 90% | 61% | 41% | 42% | 50% | 14% | 15% |
| Pre tax profit | 74% | 10% | -2% | 55% | -3% | 69% | 64% | 38% | 41% | 30% | 40% | 10% | 15% |
| Net income | 62% | 11% | -1% | 40% | 9% | 70% | 64% | 34% | 50% | 26% | 42% | 6% | 13% |
| EPS | 58% | 9% | -3% | 37% | 7% | 67% | 61% | 36% | 50% | 23% | 41% | 6% | 13% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Quanta
We are Neutral-rated on Quanta. Our 12-month target price of NT$299 is based on an 10.7x 2027E P/E, which references PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger-/weaker-than-expected demand for general servers.
| 2382.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$299.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$299.00 | Price: NT$344.50 | Price: NT$344.50 | Downside: 13.2% | Downside: 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | Neutral | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |||
| Market cap: NT$1.4tr / $43.8bn | Market cap: NT$1.4tr / $43.8bn | Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 2,123,689.4 | 3,995,599.6 | 4,542,914.7 | 5,244,179.1 |
| Enterprise value: | Enterprise value: | Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 2,123,689.4 | 3,698,803.5 | 4,130,931.0 | 4,759,624.2 |
| NT$1.5tr / $46.1bn | NT$1.5tr / $46.1bn | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 99,837.3 | 146,785.5 | 161,889.2 | 193,780.3 |
| 3m ADTV: NT$6.3bn / $197.1mn | 3m ADTV: NT$6.3bn / $197.1mn | EPS (NT$) New | 19.45 | 27.64 | 29.32 | 33.06 |
| Taiwan | Taiwan | EPS (NT$) Old | 19.45 | 25.98 | 28.42 | 32.17 |
| Greater China Technology | Greater China Technology | P/E (X) | 13.8 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 10.4 |
| M&A Rank: 3 | M&A Rank: 3 | P/B (X) | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Dividend yield (%) | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.7 |
| CROCI (%) | 28.6 | 29.1 | 28.9 | 32.5 | ||
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 7.43 | 6.99 | 7.72 | 6.33 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 21 Sep 2026 close.
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